Over the last week, I have found myself taking part in a discussion regarding the Falklands dispute on a British Politics Forum.
Being rather unimpressed by the overall level of debate, I decided to do some research to find out what the reality of the situation was and to ascertain just how viable or not and what exactly is the nature of the political opposition the UK faces and of course what a possible future military engagement is likely to look like and if HM Armed Forces would be able to prevail a second time.
What a relatively modest amount of research uncovered astounded me as it soon became clear that the Falklands dispute was rapidly lining up as a major geopolitical confrontation, involving not only the UK and Argentina but drawing in a both regional and Global competing powers.
The first thing I discovered is just how isolated the UK is with its no negotiation policy. South America is united in opposition to the UK through Mercosur, Africa is united in opposition to the UK as expressed by the 2013 Malabo Declaration. This matters as it means there is no friendly coast or port on either side of the entire South Atlantic, it also means no one is likely to want to buy any Oil and Gas that comes out of the Falklands waters, which means expensive to produce Oil will need long and expensive tankering to find a market.
Further afield Russia and China openly support Argentina, India at the very least supports groups and UN resolutions that support Argentina, while many of the UK's European partners are either luke warm in their support (Germany/France) or openly unsympathetic (Spain re Gibralter).
Despite all this, the only shift in military power as the relative decline of UK military power, while the Argentine forces have largely stagnated over the thirty years since the Falklands War.
Argentina has however been out shopping and has been talking to various countries. Negotiations with France and Sweden for Dassaults and Grippen have come to nothing as UK diplomacy have blocked such deals. Other approaches to Israel for Afik Aircraft and Russia for SU-24’s have been better received, but it is clear that China is regarded as the supplier of choice.
Not only is there a stalled negotiation for 20 FC-1’s there are also deals for P18 Corvettes (export version 056’s) and a lot of deals with Norinco for a range of Armoured Vehicles, including a full suite of 8 wheeled Amphibeous vehicles.
There have also been discussions about arms for resources deals, but all the declared deals to date have been on a cash purchase basis, which is surprising given that there has been a lot of Chinese interest in Argentine Offshore Oil and Gas.
It is not clear if the current stall in negotiations is only for the FC-1’s or includes the P18’s as well. I wonder as the main sticking point has been the unwillingness to provide either any or top end AShM, but it is not clear if these are simply the Air Launced variety or Ship launched as well.
The official story for this is that China has withheld the missiles as part of a deal with the UK, in which the UK agreed to become a founder member of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). This is significant on so many levels, but cheifly because by breaking ranks, the UK defied the expressed will of the USA who did not wish to see any of its Allies be involved. Of course, the moment the UK broke ranks, nearly every other major Western Nation/US Ally immediately broke ranks as well and signed up as founder members.
This could be significnat for the configeration of power as the Geopolitical Heavyweights start to line up in the South Atlantic.
China is clearly lined up with Argentian and many in the UK expect the US to line up with them. I however am far less sure about this.
A quick digression – my personal belief (based on the evidence) is that the UK and Argentina need to do the pragmatic thing and agree a deal and divide the spoils of the region “fairly” between them. The failure to do so is bringing other parties to the table offering support, but support that comes at a heavy price.
The most obvious and least calamatous outcome is a divided region with the two protagonists retaining a very small part of the riches, having had to hand out the lions share to there respective Great Power backers.
For the UK however, the outlook is not even that rosy.
I see two problems in the assumption of US support.
1) The UK has just shafted the US royally over the AIIB and left Washington very red faced
2) The US is very concerned about the growing influence of the PRC in South America generally and it has been expressed that an Argentine helped by China that faced down a US backed UK would be seen as a Chinese victory over two key Western powers.
It is therefore not difficult to deduce that faced with prospect of having to be on the losing side with an ally that has just let it down badly and against its main Peer Competitor, that the best option is to go to Buenos Aires and cut a deal with the Argentine themselves.
Maybe Beijing would be satisified with driving a wedge between the two key Western Allies?
Maybe.
The point though is that this is based on the “Offical” Version. I wonder if there is another?
There is of course the stong implication that China would have sold the missiles to the Argentine, had the UK not invested in the AIIB. For the record, it hardly seems the UK invested under genuine duress, to which the reaction of the other nations is testament. The implicit threat remains however, together with the idea that the next British Diplomatic Faux Pas could put them back on the table.
My every instinct however tells me that there is something else; deeper and more sinister in play.
We know:
That China has offered “Generous Terms and a Resource based agreement” but without public detail.
We know that Argentina wants the Missiles
We know Argentina has expressed an interest in the more expensive J10 Aircraft
We know that Argentina has placed orders for Armoured Vehicles included Amphibs
We also know that there is nothing in Argentina that could carry these vehicles the 500kms to the Islands.
I strongly suspect therefore that there is another shopping list and this one is not offered for cash.
I suspect that this list is offered on a strictly Resource for goods basis and includes
J10 Aircraft
Top End Air to Air and Anti Ship Missiles
Possibly Frigates and Destroyers
Top End Air Defence
Some form of Ambhibeous Assault Craft
Why is this sinister?
Because the resources that would pay for it are currently controlled by the UK that’s why.
It means that if the Argentine accepted the deal, they would indeed have the weapons capable of taking the Islands by force, but they would have no option but to use them!
I suspect that the brutal audacity of such a deal will have shocked Buenos Aires. No wonder talks are currently stalled while they consider making a deal from which there could no going back.
Food for though eh?
Being rather unimpressed by the overall level of debate, I decided to do some research to find out what the reality of the situation was and to ascertain just how viable or not and what exactly is the nature of the political opposition the UK faces and of course what a possible future military engagement is likely to look like and if HM Armed Forces would be able to prevail a second time.
What a relatively modest amount of research uncovered astounded me as it soon became clear that the Falklands dispute was rapidly lining up as a major geopolitical confrontation, involving not only the UK and Argentina but drawing in a both regional and Global competing powers.
The first thing I discovered is just how isolated the UK is with its no negotiation policy. South America is united in opposition to the UK through Mercosur, Africa is united in opposition to the UK as expressed by the 2013 Malabo Declaration. This matters as it means there is no friendly coast or port on either side of the entire South Atlantic, it also means no one is likely to want to buy any Oil and Gas that comes out of the Falklands waters, which means expensive to produce Oil will need long and expensive tankering to find a market.
Further afield Russia and China openly support Argentina, India at the very least supports groups and UN resolutions that support Argentina, while many of the UK's European partners are either luke warm in their support (Germany/France) or openly unsympathetic (Spain re Gibralter).
Despite all this, the only shift in military power as the relative decline of UK military power, while the Argentine forces have largely stagnated over the thirty years since the Falklands War.
Argentina has however been out shopping and has been talking to various countries. Negotiations with France and Sweden for Dassaults and Grippen have come to nothing as UK diplomacy have blocked such deals. Other approaches to Israel for Afik Aircraft and Russia for SU-24’s have been better received, but it is clear that China is regarded as the supplier of choice.
Not only is there a stalled negotiation for 20 FC-1’s there are also deals for P18 Corvettes (export version 056’s) and a lot of deals with Norinco for a range of Armoured Vehicles, including a full suite of 8 wheeled Amphibeous vehicles.
There have also been discussions about arms for resources deals, but all the declared deals to date have been on a cash purchase basis, which is surprising given that there has been a lot of Chinese interest in Argentine Offshore Oil and Gas.
It is not clear if the current stall in negotiations is only for the FC-1’s or includes the P18’s as well. I wonder as the main sticking point has been the unwillingness to provide either any or top end AShM, but it is not clear if these are simply the Air Launced variety or Ship launched as well.
The official story for this is that China has withheld the missiles as part of a deal with the UK, in which the UK agreed to become a founder member of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). This is significant on so many levels, but cheifly because by breaking ranks, the UK defied the expressed will of the USA who did not wish to see any of its Allies be involved. Of course, the moment the UK broke ranks, nearly every other major Western Nation/US Ally immediately broke ranks as well and signed up as founder members.
This could be significnat for the configeration of power as the Geopolitical Heavyweights start to line up in the South Atlantic.
China is clearly lined up with Argentian and many in the UK expect the US to line up with them. I however am far less sure about this.
A quick digression – my personal belief (based on the evidence) is that the UK and Argentina need to do the pragmatic thing and agree a deal and divide the spoils of the region “fairly” between them. The failure to do so is bringing other parties to the table offering support, but support that comes at a heavy price.
The most obvious and least calamatous outcome is a divided region with the two protagonists retaining a very small part of the riches, having had to hand out the lions share to there respective Great Power backers.
For the UK however, the outlook is not even that rosy.
I see two problems in the assumption of US support.
1) The UK has just shafted the US royally over the AIIB and left Washington very red faced
2) The US is very concerned about the growing influence of the PRC in South America generally and it has been expressed that an Argentine helped by China that faced down a US backed UK would be seen as a Chinese victory over two key Western powers.
It is therefore not difficult to deduce that faced with prospect of having to be on the losing side with an ally that has just let it down badly and against its main Peer Competitor, that the best option is to go to Buenos Aires and cut a deal with the Argentine themselves.
Maybe Beijing would be satisified with driving a wedge between the two key Western Allies?
Maybe.
The point though is that this is based on the “Offical” Version. I wonder if there is another?
There is of course the stong implication that China would have sold the missiles to the Argentine, had the UK not invested in the AIIB. For the record, it hardly seems the UK invested under genuine duress, to which the reaction of the other nations is testament. The implicit threat remains however, together with the idea that the next British Diplomatic Faux Pas could put them back on the table.
My every instinct however tells me that there is something else; deeper and more sinister in play.
We know:
That China has offered “Generous Terms and a Resource based agreement” but without public detail.
We know that Argentina wants the Missiles
We know Argentina has expressed an interest in the more expensive J10 Aircraft
We know that Argentina has placed orders for Armoured Vehicles included Amphibs
We also know that there is nothing in Argentina that could carry these vehicles the 500kms to the Islands.
I strongly suspect therefore that there is another shopping list and this one is not offered for cash.
I suspect that this list is offered on a strictly Resource for goods basis and includes
J10 Aircraft
Top End Air to Air and Anti Ship Missiles
Possibly Frigates and Destroyers
Top End Air Defence
Some form of Ambhibeous Assault Craft
Why is this sinister?
Because the resources that would pay for it are currently controlled by the UK that’s why.
It means that if the Argentine accepted the deal, they would indeed have the weapons capable of taking the Islands by force, but they would have no option but to use them!
I suspect that the brutal audacity of such a deal will have shocked Buenos Aires. No wonder talks are currently stalled while they consider making a deal from which there could no going back.
Food for though eh?