china 2010

Discussion in 'Professional Discussions' started by utelore, Jul 30, 2010.

  1. utelore
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    utelore Junior Member
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    Greetings all, it has been a while. I have said sense about about 2005 that china would be the most dominate power in Asia by 2010 and have the capability to defeat any power on earth within the 1st island chain. Yes, china has done that. How?

    1. Money, massive national wealth. along with the ability to cripple other economies

    2. A focus sense 1991 to grow its military in technology and very very good training.

    3. U.S pentagon or the rest of the world has no idea what the PRC true military capabilities are. Situational awareness is in the PRCs favor, They know what is in the region and at same time can keep others in the dark as to what they are doing.

    4. The combined forces of the PRC Navy, airforce and army could sink any ship in the first island chain within hrs and could threaten carrier groups out to the second chain fairly easy.

    5. The PRC could prevent sea access at will to prevent resupply and military operations out to the second chain.

    6. The PRC could launch massive corp level amphibious/airborne operations within the 1st island chain.

    7. Air defense, the PRC could prevent all but the best stealth aircraft from getting within 100 miles of the mainland while at the same time can counter with direct air and tactical missile strikes against any power in the first island chain and sustain moderate strikes to the 2nd chain.

    8. Massive industrial power to quickly produce and or continue long term military operations.

    9. people power, 1.3 billion people=tons of talent and the best of the best in terms of quality management of personal.

    10. Last but not least, The PRC is a Nuclear power with pretty good space denial capabilities. End gamer
     
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  2. SampanViking
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    SampanViking The Capitalist
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    Hi ute long time no see.

    You are right China probably indeed has the capability of performing all the missions you outline. The question though, to all those that fret over a potential China threat, is does China have the desire and need to implement such strategies as policy?

    Personally I doubt it as clearly the PRC operates in a different way to the US and does not lead its foreign policy through its military.

    Indeed if you read the Opinion pieces in the Chinese media these days, much talk is about the end of traditional warfare and of ideological conflicts as historic relics of the 20th century, which are as obsolete and ineffective as are the Imperialist policies of the 19th.
     
  3. utelore
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    utelore Junior Member
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    Greetings sanpan good to chat with you again, I would agree with your comment, for the most part. But the kicker is humans have not really changed much in a thousand years and past performance is indicative of future results as far as our species goes. So hence if the PRC did have this "new" paradigm shift in the human condition I dont believe it would have the current geo-military capability it has now.

    But yes, they do seem much more prudent in the use of military power than some other nations.
     
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  4. rhino123
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    rhino123 Pencil Pusher
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    Actually Utelore, your assessment might be quite accurate to a certain point. Please be reminded that the US had a strong presence in Asia... especially in Guam, Japan and Korea. And not to mention, Japan and Korea are no small flies that could be swept off at ease.

    True, China's military edge over most of Asia are astonishing, but really they are not that far ahead. The only thing that I could see is their nuclear deterrence... and that is about it.

    Although in recent decades, China is building rapidly a powerful Navy filled with very advance and modern warships... but the bulk of the country's navy are still operating obsolete destroyers and frigates.

    J-7 and J-8 (highly obsolete by today's standard) still make up the bulk of the country's air force, although newer fighters such as J-10 and J-11 is being introduced. However J-11 being a derivative of the Russian Su-27 was really not a extremely state of the art technology as compared to western fighters that both Japan and SK had assess to.

    China's ground force is impressive... their Type 99 MBT is among the best in the world... but again... these are expensive and China do not field thousands of them... so the bulk of the massive armour units are still the older Type 55.

    So let us not be over optimistic about China's military strenght. True, she is stronger than ever... but still not really that strong... and also note that China's military are not really being tested... unlike US and many of the Western militaries.
     
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