Cambodian-Thai border started gunfire

Spartan95

Junior Member
Hmm, how likely is a Vietnamese intervention?
Propably unlikely because the Thais would have to be much more dangerous than they are in order to have Cambodia calling in the Viet, is it possible for Cambodia to use the threat of "make peace or we call in Vietnam!" as a bargaining chip?

If the Thai already struggle with the Cambodian army, the Vietnamese army would rip them a new one...

The chances of Vietnam getting involved in the Thai-Cambodia border issue is practically nil.

Vietnam-Cambodia relations are not exactly all that good, which makes it unlikely that Vietnam will want to get dragged in on either side. In fact, Vietnam has fought a long war against Cambodia when it was ruled by the Khmer Rouge in the past.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) as already made a ruling on the border issue in the past. It is up to Cambodia and Thailand to implement ICJ's ruling. Fighting isn't part of the ruling. And getting involved doesn't help Vietnam's international standing, especially if their involvement is about changing ICJ's ruling.

Vietnam is more concerned about their territorial disputes with PRC. No reason to get distracted by other countries disputes.

As for Vietnam's economy, it is actually doing very well. They opened up their economy in the 80's and now their economy is 1 of the most dynamic in ASEAN. And this is how they have been able to pay for modernisation of their military (submarines, fighters, etc).
 

delft

Brigadier
Shawn W Crispin, Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor writes in this article

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among other things:
"Earlier this year, there was widespread speculation that Prayuth could move to topple Abhisit to halt his early election plan. Others interpreted the sudden outbreak of armed hostilities with Cambodia in February as the military stoking a national security related pretext to subvert the polls. But while the military is widely viewed as on the ascendency, through rising budgets and policy independence, there are parallel indications of erratic behavior that show it feels more cornered than confident as it becomes more deeply entrenched in daily politics. "

Abhasit is currently Thai prime-minister, Prayuth is the army commander.

And:
" The one thing Thailand's six-year-old political conflict has demonstrated clearly is that there are no permanent friends, enemies or deals, and thus new bouts of instability cannot be ruled out."
 
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