solarz
Brigadier
What does have to do with anything?
And no, international law does not say what you think it says. Otherwise, China could legally annex Richmond, BC.
An Analysis of Size and Structure of the Army of Reunified Korea
- Thread starter nemo
- Start date
What does have to do with anything?
And no, international law does not say what you think it says. Otherwise, China could legally annex Richmond, BC.
Skywatcher
Captain
The Koreans in Yanbian don't like South Korea (South Koreans aren't exactly very polite to the Korean Chinese who come by, in fact the Yanbian Koreans are probably some of the most vehement critics of South Korea in China) and ditto for North Korea.
Do you know what you are talking about? Korean in Manchuria has only a short history -- their migration to Manchuria only started after Japan annexed Korea. Before that, Korea was a vassal of Qing which is ruled by Manchurian -- they were not allowed in.
Kurt, compare with the presence of Germans in different European states. Example: German is one of the official languages of Belgium. In Italy German speakers live in "South Tirol" or Alto Adige but Austria has agreed, a few tens of years ago, that it has no claim on that part of Italy. Even if the Koreans in China had arrived centuries ago Korea couldn't claim the area.
I won't call the Song the weakest Chinese dynasty, It took the mongols ~40 years to conquer the Song; in relationship, the Mongols conquered Russia in a winter, Europe in a summer and Arabia in a few years. -> the Mongols were just really really strong.
It is also not true that the Sung was just on the defensive, they have made counter attacks with the Song marines and as well as on land.
The Ming in their sorry state was able to fend off the Manchus from 1600 to 1644 when the capitol fell. it took until 1683 to pacify the rest of China still under Ming control. It is hard to consider the Ming that weak when they can struggle 80~ years with empty treasury.
About the only practical scenario that I have seen in which a Korean reunification, let alone a unified Korean Armed Forces, is realized, ironically involves a quickie war along the DMZ deliberately provoked by the North Koreans themselves in order to faciliate a subsequent peace treaty that includes political reunification of the two Koreas. And all before the PLA can effectively move to prevent this. of :
NK needs the money that the creeping Chinese economic development and integration of its economy into the regional economy of Manchuria, but they have no desire to end up becoming vassals of China. If North Korea were to precipitate events in order to avoid this, China would be very loath to see a powerful potential rival state established right on its land frontiers, and on the historic land invasions routes used by Japan no less.
NK needs the money that the creeping Chinese economic development and integration of its economy into the regional economy of Manchuria, but they have no desire to end up becoming vassals of China. If North Korea were to precipitate events in order to avoid this, China would be very loath to see a powerful potential rival state established right on its land frontiers, and on the historic land invasions routes used by Japan no less.
solarz
Brigadier
Why do you think NK would prefer being vassals to SK than to China?
Remember that we're talking about a dynastic government here. Why would the Kims, and all the elites that benefit from their reign, ever want to cede power to the SK?
China has no interest in taking over NK. China has plenty of backwards, dirt-poor villages that it needs to look after within its own borders.
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My point here is that the North Koreans are Koreans nationalists at heart (John McCreary has made this point a number of times in the past), as well as remaining very suspicious of non-Koreans, including the Chinese, and especially the Japanese. The recent establishment of a new NK Army Corps (the 10th) two years ago along the frontier with China has been seen by many (including McCreary) as an indication that NK is taking pre-emptive measures against the possibility of a Chinese attempt to establish a buffer zone within Korea in the event of North Korea's collapse. Five of the NK Army's nine regular Army Corps are now stationed in the north in order to provide local and frontier security on or near the Chinese border.
McCreary's thesis for some time now is that if collapse becomes unavoidable, the Kims at least want to go down in history as having achieved the reunification of Korea. After having, in sequence, put satellites into space, and then created nuclear weapons, with each new national achievement having to be greater than the last, and ending with the penultimate express objective, the reunification of the Koreas. The ultimate express objective, of course, is to establish a Communist political system in Korea. But after political unification, that would be a matter to be settled at the ballot box, as unlikely as that may be. These are men that may soon be forced to clutch at straws in order to avoid drowning. It is an interesting thesis, anyway.
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China doesn't want NK. But as in my previous post, it doesn't want a powerful potential rival right next door either, and on an historic land invasion route no less. If NK collapses, China loses its strategic land buffer in NE Asia against Japan, the U.S., and potentially, South Korea.
McCreary's thesis for some time now is that if collapse becomes unavoidable, the Kims at least want to go down in history as having achieved the reunification of Korea. After having, in sequence, put satellites into space, and then created nuclear weapons, with each new national achievement having to be greater than the last, and ending with the penultimate express objective, the reunification of the Koreas. The ultimate express objective, of course, is to establish a Communist political system in Korea. But after political unification, that would be a matter to be settled at the ballot box, as unlikely as that may be. These are men that may soon be forced to clutch at straws in order to avoid drowning. It is an interesting thesis, anyway.
Edited to Add:
China doesn't want NK. But as in my previous post, it doesn't want a powerful potential rival right next door either, and on an historic land invasion route no less. If NK collapses, China loses its strategic land buffer in NE Asia against Japan, the U.S., and potentially, South Korea.
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solarz
Brigadier
This assumes that the Kim dynasty would be able to foresee its own demise, and be willing to "make the best out of it".
I highly doubt that it will happen. Look at Gaddafi and Assad. Both were/are willing to fight to the end to preserve their power.
Furthermore, McCreary's plan involves the Kims still having control over the NK military. The problem with that assumption is, as long as they have control over the military, the Kim dynasty will not be threatened (except by outside powers). Therefore, if the Kims ever do foresee their demise as inevitable, they won't be in a position to do anything by then.
A badly reasoned thesis written probably by a South Korean naval officer for Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, CA. He comes to an suspect conclusion that reunified Korean army is twice is powerful as what PLA army can spare on Korean front.
From a cursory look, I think he screwed up TOE of the PLA by severely undercounting, particularly on the artillery, while overcounting on the Korean side by including equipment not yet in service.U
It's at least good for a laugh.
Lol. What this Korean dude wrote is the 2nd dumbest thing I heard today. Only narrowly beaten by this:
Michelle Duggar, star of TLC's reality show, "19 Kids and Counting", says there needs to be more children because our world needs more joy. And as for overpopulation? That's just a lie, Duggar recently told the Christian Broadcasting Network in a web interview. "The idea of overpopulation is not accurate," Duggar says, because the entire population of the world could fit inside of Jacksonville, Florida.