An Analysis of Size and Structure of the Army of Reunified Korea

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by nemo, Feb 16, 2012.

  1. nemo
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    nemo New Member

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    http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA518626

    A badly reasoned thesis written probably by a South Korean naval officer for Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, CA. He comes to an suspect conclusion that reunified Korean army is twice is powerful as what PLA army can spare on Korean front.

    From a cursory look, I think he screwed up TOE of the PLA by severely undercounting, particularly on the artillery, while overcounting on the Korean side by including equipment not yet in service.

    It's at least good for a laugh.
    :D:D
     
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  2. xywdx
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    xywdx New Member

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    To summarize what he wrote:

    China has internal problems->attacking Korea will solve China's problem->Korea will win

    Actually, based on his logic, the entire world's problems will be solved by attacking Korea. Isreal, Palestine, Iran, Syria, Greek, etc. should take note.
     
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  3. pakje
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    pakje Just Hatched
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    I wonder if he realizes that China could win that war in 1 day. Just launch some nuclear cruise missiles/icbms
     
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  4. nemo
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    nemo New Member

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    Well, Korea will be a nuclear power when it annexed North Korea. So for argument's sake let's leave the nukes out of the equation.
     
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  5. pakje
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    pakje Just Hatched
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    oke fair enough

    btw i found this funny quote

    Genghis Khan II is coming for us!!!
     
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  6. nemo
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    nemo New Member

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    Note he made a great deal on Korea's claim on Manchuria. Then he claims Korean army is twice as powerful as PLA. The logical implication, although unstated, ;);) is Greater Korea!
     
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  7. japhetmadison
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    japhetmadison Just Hatched
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    Korea has been a great opponent of China all throughout the years and even Kim Jong Il is dead, they will still be in power over China that's what I guess.
     
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  8. nemo
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    nemo New Member

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    Enough laughs. Although I think most of his analysis pertaining PLA is worthless, he does bring up an interesting fact that he may have intentionally evade -- both Koreas have reserves larger than PLA, even when PLA's own reserver is counted (4.5 millions each). South Korea's reserve is probably of less value, due to less time in military service, but each male in North Korea serve over 3 years in the military, which is equal to a term in countries that uses professional instead of drafts.

    So if unified Korea wanted to pursue Greater Korea, there is a window -- before the North Korea reserve degrade into uselessness, start the war. Instead of calling up reserve in South Korea (that will cripple the economy), call up reserve in North Korea only since their economy is worthless anyway. With North and South Korea regular army plus Northern Reserves, the unified Korea out numbers PLA around 3 to 1 -- and that is total, not only troops PLA can devote to Korean front. And with Southern economy untouched, they can sustain the war.

    And US may take the opportunity to cut China down to size, now China is in numerical disadvantage...
     
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  9. solarz
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    solarz Senior Member

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    5 million soldiers aren't worth anything if you can give them 5 million guns to fight with. Not to mention logistics and supplies. Assuming the US stays out of this (if they don't, that's a whole other can of worms), there's no way Korea's air force can stand against the PLAAF. Once China achieve air superiority, the millions of reserves will be about as helpless as all their civilians.

    There's also the question of military doctrine. The PLA was founded on the concept of "People's War". Meanwhile, South Korea has been trained in US military doctrine, while the NK is basically the PLA's pupil, without any experience in actual warfare. A huge army without an effective leadership and strong cohesion is worthless, as demonstrated by the Battle of Fei River (淝水之战).
     
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  10. nemo
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    nemo New Member

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    Both North and South Korea has 4.5 million reserve -- and have stored old weapons for them. If they only used Northern reserves, the equipment for the Southern reserves can be used by the Northern reserves, if there are any shortages,

    While US may not want to get into land war with China, they may offer air force on "humanitarian" ground. In that case, PLA will not have air superiority. Let's assume that US air-force will only conduct defensive operation.

    What made you think unified Korean army will not have unit cohesion? In the short term they can have independent commands that retains the old chain of command. At very minimum, you can have intact subunits, reinforced by other intact subunits -- such as North Korean Infantry reinforced by South Korean mechanized units. Yes, you will have doctrinal conflicts, but you can have a unit predominately Northern or Southern and operates accordingly in the assigned area of operation.

    Note neither Korean and PLA have actual combat experience -- what made you think PLA will have advantage?
     
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