American Economics Thread

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Depending on your health care provider. Some surgery does require a $10K co-payment.
So basically wipe out any saving the majority of Americans might have. I still wonder how much cushion Americans have in the 10k+ ranges. If someone got 100k sitting in a bank for emergency funds, not likely to go bankrupt from a surgery. 10k who knows. So it's a major difference.

I personally try to maintain a 100k cash flow outside of my short and long term investments, retirement funds etc just for cash flow (and emergencies). 10k is not even enough for a decent vacation. Of course I'm talking Canadian dollars, so take off 1/3 if you want. But purchasing power for CAD to USD is pretty similar for most goods.
 
No Pay Stub? No Problem. Unconventional Mortgages Make a Comeback
By
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| Jan 23, 2019
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yeah
Aryanna Hering didn’t have pay stubs or tax forms to document her income when she shopped around for a mortgage last year—a problem that made it tough for her to get a loan.

But the nursing student who works part time providing home care for children and the elderly eventually hit pay dirt: For a roughly $610,000 home loan, a mortgage company let her verify her earnings with 12 months of bank statements and letters from clients.

Ms. Hering’s case highlights how a flavor of mortgage once panned for its role in the housing meltdown a decade ago is making a comeback. These loans, aimed at buyers with unusual circumstances such as those who can’t provide the standard proofs of income, are growing rapidly even as rising interest rates and higher home prices crimp demand for mortgages.

Lenders issued $34 billion of these unconventional mortgages in the first three quarters of 2018, a 24% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry research group. While that makes up less than 3% of the $1.3 trillion of mortgage originations over that period, the growth is notable because it came as traditional home loans declined. Those originations fell 1.2% over the same period and were on track for a second down year in 2018.

During the financial crisis, many unconventional loans soured after borrowers misstated their incomes and lenders didn’t ask for documentation, earning them the nickname “liar loans.” Today, industry executives say the new unconventional mortgage, now referred to as “nonqualified” in industry jargon, has changed drastically from its crisis-era predecessor and is far safer.

Even so, some regulators, consumer advocates and others worry that the growth in this type of mortgage and rising competition to make such loans could lead to renewed risks for the housing market.

“It’s a slippery slope,” said Mat Ishbia, the president and CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage, a large nonbank lender that doesn’t issue these loans.

So far, specialty mortgage companies have dominated in making such unconventional loans. But traditional lenders, which are doing less conventional business as interest rates rise, are turning to borrowers with harder-to-document creditworthiness as a new source of revenue and are helping to drive the growth. Nearly half of lenders who participated in a recent survey said they have plans to get into this business, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

These mortgages don’t meet the criteria to be backed by
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or
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. Some are large relative to a borrower’s income, are interest-only or span longer than 30 years. In other cases, borrowers have blemishes in their credit histories. Many can’t document their income using pay stubs because they are self-employed or retired.

Tom Jessop, the loan consultant at New American Funding who handled Ms. Hering’s loan, said he has seen demand for unconventional loans double over the past 18 months and they currently makes up more than one-third of his business. “I think it’s just catering to an audience that’s been neglected for years,” Mr. Jessop said. “Now they have an opportunity to get financing finally.”

At the same time, Wall Street investors who buy home loans are scooping up unconventional mortgages that have been packaged into bonds, edging back into a corner of the market that is riskier but provides higher returns. There were $12.3 billion of such residential-mortgage-backed securities sold in 2018, nearly quadruple from a year earlier, according to credit-rating firm DBRS Inc.

DBRS says these deals have shown very little in the way of losses and nearly all underlying loans have remained current, though borrowers could become more stressed if the economy turns down.

Credit-rating firms say there are key differences between old loans and new: The new loans comply with postcrisis “ability-to-repay” rules that require mortgage lenders to make a determination that borrowers can pay down their debts. Underwriting standards and due diligence are stronger these days, they say.

Still, some are worried about the risks for borrowers.

“While they might not be as toxic as some of the loans precrisis, you still have a host of affordability concerns,” said Scott Astrada, director of federal advocacy at the Center for Responsible Lending, a consumer-advocacy group.

Though the new loans have been issued judiciously for most of the postcrisis period, “It’s definitely starting to swing,” said Guy Cecala, chief executive of Inside Mortgage Finance. “As more companies enter the space you’re going to see more competition, and with more competition, you’re going to see loosening of underwriting” standards.

In many unconventional loans for which it is difficult to document income, borrowers use bank statements like Ms. Hering did to show they are making money. There are other ways for borrowers to prove they can repay: One type of unconventional mortgage, called an asset-depletion or asset-dissipation loan, generally entails dividing a borrower’s total assets by the term of the loan to derive a stand-in figure for monthly income.

Regulators have highlighted risks in these. “Some banks have initiated this practice without the appropriate risk governance controls,” the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said in a December report. The bank overseer has noticed a range of methods for doing asset-depletion calculations and wants to make sure the level of oversight is commensurate with the level of risk in these loans, according to people familiar with the matter.

Ms. Hering, who is 30 years old, received a loan at a rate of just over 6% for the first five years; it adjusts after that. She used the money to fully buy out her grandfather’s house in San Clemente, Calif. She jointly inherited it with other relatives and said she needed a loan to pay them for their shares of the property.

“It was scary because if it didn’t work out then I would have had to give up the house, but I was determined to keep it,” said Ms. Hering, who is renting out rooms in the house to help pay the mortgage.
 
gee GE pays $1.5 billion to finally resolve subprime loan allegations
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General Electric's power business keeps crumbling, but the beleaguered company put to rest a major question mark by reaching a $1.5 billion settlement with the Justice Department.
GE (
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) announced on Thursday that its adjusted profit declined more than Wall Street analysts had been anticipating. The latest stumble was driven by an $872 million loss at GE Power, the company's turbine division.
But GE is finally moving past its
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. The company said it agreed in principle to pay a $1.5 billion civil penalty to settle the the Justice Department's investigation into WMC Mortgage, the subprime lender that was shut down a decade ago.
Investors expressed relief that GE doesn't need to pay more than the $1.5 billion it previously set aside for WMC. GE's stock surged 17% on Thursday to three-month highs. GE's stock performance was on track for its best day since 2009.
"We can begin to move that episode behind us," CEO Larry Culp told analysts about the WMC settlement.
After a horrendous 2017 and 2018, GE shares have spiked about 35% this year on
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Although GE is still worth just a fraction of its all-time high, it's one of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 in 2019.
"We're on the precipice of something great," Culp said. "It's a start, but we have much more work to do."
Power problems linger
GE Power, which makes turbines used in natural gas and coal power plants has been the
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The fossil fuels division has been hurt by the
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Power orders slumped 19% in the fourth quarter, driving revenue down by 25%. The company blamed "continued execution and operational issues." GE vowed to improve its power discipline, project management and execution. GE Power has been slashing jobs and shutting facilities.
"Fixing power will take time," Culp said, adding that the division will struggle again in 2019 and the turnaround is "in the very early innings."
GE sought to quiet speculation that it could auction off its lucrative aircraft leasing business for a
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.
"We have no plans to sell" the aircraft leasing unit, Culp said.
Shaky outlook
As expected, the bright spot at GE was its booming aviation business, which benefited from soaring orders for engines. GE Aviation logged a 24% jump in quarterly profit and reported an 89% surge in orders for its LEAP engine program.
Culp expects industrial operating profit margins to expand in 2019, but warned free cash flow faces headwinds. Revenue and profit are expected to grow modestly this year.
Culp was more bullish about the longer-term outlook, predicting cash flow will "grow substantially" in 2020 and 2021.
"2019 is still very much a work in progress, but the company is becoming stronger," Culp said.
JPMorgan Chase analyst C. Stephen Tusa, Jr., one of the biggest GE bears on Wall Street, pointedly asked executives whether the company will generate free cash flow at all in 2019. Tellingly, Culp declined to answer directly, but promised more details soon.
John Inch, an analyst at Gordon Haskett, found the response alarming.
"Why would you give GE, after missing so many times over so many years, the benefit of the doubt?" Inch told CNN Business.
Shrinking the GE empire
Culp, the
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, was hired last year to turn around the iconic maker of light bulbs, MRI machines and jet engines. Once the world's most valuable company, GE has been slammed by years of bad decisions, including poorly timed acquisitions and heaps of debt.
The new CEO moved swiftly to fix GE's broken balance sheet. Culp
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, sped up its divorce of oil-and-gas giant Baker Hughes (
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) and unloaded more businesses.
GE said it sold about $8 billion of assets in the fourth quarter, bringing 2018 sales to $15 billion.
The next big business to go: GE Healthcare, which makes MRI machines and other medical equipment. Culp said GE could monetize nearly half of the profitable health care division, though he declined to detail timing on a transaction.
Despite the WMC settlement, GE still faces outstanding legal issues, including
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from the SEC and DOJ.
Asked if he's confident that "all the skeletons in the closet" have been found, Culp left the door open for more bad news.
"I don't think I would ever say, even on my last day here, that we have found all the skeletons," Culp said. "I don't tend to take absolution positions."
 

advill

Junior Member
President Trump, his Economic/Trade & other advisers need to be decisive, & not appear unpredictable in their talks with the Chinese delegation on Tariffs & Trade, IP etc. Most problem areas would have been examined, and hopefully they were worked out by the US & China delegations now in the US, before Presidents Trump & Xi's proposed meeting in Hainan later this month. Negotiation can be equated to a "Chess Game of strategy", BUT there should not be a diversion & try to play a "Poker Game of bluff". The outcomes of the talks between US & China are urgently awaited by all countries. Alternative plans/alignments for all nations/regions must be made to avoid any catastrophe in Global Trade and Investments. We should be reminded of the US Depression of the 1930s, Financial Crisis as recent as in the 1980s. WAKE UP calls for all.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
President Trump, his Economic/Trade & other advisers need to be decisive, & not appear unpredictable in their talks with the Chinese delegation on Tariffs & Trade, IP etc. Most problem areas would have been examined, and hopefully they were worked out by the US & China delegations now in the US, before Presidents Trump & Xi's proposed meeting in Hainan later this month. Negotiation can be equated to a "Chess Game of strategy", BUT there should not be a diversion & try to play a "Poker Game of bluff". The outcomes of the talks between US & China are urgently awaited by all countries. Alternative plans/alignments for all nations/regions must be made to avoid any catastrophe in Global Trade and Investments. We should be reminded of the US Depression of the 1930s, Financial Crisis as recent as in the 1980s. WAKE UP calls for all.

Yeah but we should also be reminded that it was the US that started this trade spat when Trump took office.o_O
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yeah but we should also be reminded that it was the US that started this trade spat when Trump took office.o_O

Yes. It's amazing how the western MSM are spinning this as a trade war started by both parties at best. Or at worse, it's those devious chinese by not "playing the white man" (before any of you accuse me of being racist. I would like to qualify the"playing the white man" is actually a phrase I've heard many times in the UK by white English folks to describe themselves as bing "fair").
What short memoris we have! It wasn't that long ago, that Trump boosted and I quote "I'm the tariff man" and "trade war are easy to win"!
This is another classic example of MSM acting as a state mouthpiece for the "free wotld"!
 

advill

Junior Member
Yes. It's amazing how the western MSM are spinning this as a trade war started by both parties at best. Or at worse, it's those devious chinese by not "playing the white man" (before any of you accuse me of being racist. I would like to qualify the"playing the white man" is actually a phrase I've heard many times in the UK by white English folks to describe themselves as bing "fair").
What short memoris we have! It wasn't that long ago, that Trump boosted and I quote "I'm the tariff man" and "trade war are easy to win"!
This is another classic example of MSM acting as a state mouthpiece for the "free wotld"!


Most nations (about half of Americans I believe) would consider Trump an egotist US President who thinks he knows every damned thing including "tariff war". It is mistaken to think he is considered a Mouth piece of the US or the "free" world. Pl read NYT, Washington Post and other Western media and importantly CNN about Trump criticising his antics. As for the term of "whiteman", I believe its was also commonly used by the Red Indians, Aborigines of Australia, the Maoris and even we Asians. It is considered a derogatory term. Many Old Chinese also use the terms "ang-mo" (red hair) & "white devils" to describe Western people. We have also heard the terms "Yellow-skinned" (critical of Chinese, Japanese & all belonging to the Confucianist Group). Then there is a description of "Brownies" for Filipinos all those belonging to the Melayo-Polynesian Group of people. For Indians there are several derogatory names too. Racists will use these derogatory names to wickedly insult others. They often FORGET that we are ALL created & put on this earth (if you believe) by God. So let's stop using insulting names in the Year of the Pig starting the day after tomorrow....... The name PIG is given to this coming year (not an insulting name), but given according to the Chinese Lunar Calendar of the Animals .... Dragon, Tiger etc. "Gong Xi Fa Cai" to all in this professional chat group & their families. Enjoy the re-union dinner & visits to all Chinese friends by all friendly people everywhere.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Most nations (about half of Americans I believe) would consider Trump an egotist US President who thinks he knows every damned thing including "tariff war". It is mistaken to think he is considered a Mouth piece of the US or the "free" world. Pl read NYT, Washington Post and other Western media and importantly CNN about Trump criticising his antics. As for the term of "whiteman", I believe its was also commonly used by the Red Indians, Aborigines of Australia, the Maoris and even we Asians. It is considered a derogatory term. Many Old Chinese also use the terms "ang-mo" (red hair) & "white devils" to describe Western people. We have also heard the terms "Yellow-skinned" (critical of Chinese, Japanese & all belonging to the Confucianist Group). Then there is a description of "Brownies" for Filipinos all those belonging to the Melayo-Polynesian Group of people. For Indians there are several derogatory names too. Racists will use these derogatory names to wickedly insult others. They often FORGET that we are ALL created & put on this earth (if you believe) by God. So let's stop using insulting names in the Year of the Pig starting the day after tomorrow....... The name PIG is given to this coming year (not an insulting name), but given according to the Chinese Lunar Calendar of the Animals .... Dragon, Tiger etc. "Gong Xi Fa Cai" to all in this professional chat group & their families. Enjoy the re-union dinner & visits to all Chinese friends by all friendly people everywhere.

Oh dear, advill.
I think you have mis-read my post.
First of all, I've never said Trump was the mouthpiece of western media. I said MSM was. MSM stands for "main stream media" MSM spinning the news to portrait China as the villan in the trade war. And therefore the MSM is acting as the self proclaimed mouthpiece of the freeworld (a tongue-in-check jib at the constant MSM dig at China's "state-control media").
Second. Perhaps more importantly, regarding the "play the white man".
Boy, I'll try and explain.
I must first say I don't have a single racist bone in me. I'm married to a white English lady. And we have children together. So therefore no way I can be racist. It would mean I have hatred towards my children and my wife.
Now I take it you are not from the UK. Those members from the UK will kniw exactly what I meant when I say "played the white man"
It is a phrase used in the UK mainly by the white English people to means they want people to play fair! (So it is in fact white english people being slightly racist by implying only white people can, and does plays fair).
Therefore I was using it in a tongue-in-check way to discribe US perceived notion that China is not playing the white man (Therefore, implying China is not playing fair in their trade policy, a often repeated accusation lay at China's door by the MSM)
 
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