American Economics Thread

Winning Powerball ticket sold in California
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LOL didn't know somebody had won more then one bil

"... in
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, soon after the odds changed. That payout reached a record $1.6 billion -- the one and only time it has crossed the billion dollar mark."

which sounded great until I followed the link and, oops, [the winners] "... opted to take the lump sum. After taxes, they'll receive $187.2 million."
 
it's very recent (I highlighted the key part inside)
Press Release
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June 14, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

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delft

Brigadier
it's very recent (I highlighted the key part inside)
Press Release
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June 14, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

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So the leading interest rate will remain unhealthily low because the US economy cannot live even with a historically average interest rate of 3 to 5%.
 
So the leading interest rate will remain unhealthily low because the US economy cannot live even with a historically average interest rate of 3 to 5%.
here's the point of view of Xinhua| 2017-06-15 07:06:55 News Analysis: Dow hits fresh record close, dollar falls after Federal Reserve raises rates
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U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow notching fresh record high, after U.S. Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rates for the fourth time since December 2015.

"In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the (Federal Open Market) Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1.25 percent," said the Fed in a statement after concluding its two-day monetary policy meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit fresh record close on Wednesday, ending 46.09 points higher.

"Equity markets continue to hit new highs in the U.S. with apparent little fear that the Fed will stifle growth through a series of rapid interest rate increase," Humberto Garcia, head of Global Asset Allocation for Leumi Investment Services, told Xinhua.

The central bank acknowledged the continuous progress in labor market while expressed their concerns over weak inflation.

Fed officials lowered their forecast for unemployment rate for 2017 down to 4.3 percent, compared to 4.5 percent projection made in March, while their forecast for inflation rate in 2017 was revised down to 1.6 percent from their forecast of 1.9 percent in March.

"The softer pace of core inflation in coming months will make it much harder for the Fed and other analysts to explain away the weakness as transitory," said Omair Sharif, senior U.S. Economist at Societe Generale. He also mentioned many of the components of core inflation have decelerated in recent months.

The Consumer Price Index (
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) for all urban consumers decreased 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in May, and it rose 1.7 percent over the past 12 months.

Despite the weak inflation, the central bank continues to see improvement in the economy and expected the economy to grow 2.2 percent this year, compared to their forecast of 2.1 percent in March.

"With a June rate hike already priced into the market, the focus shifts immediately to the Fed's intentions for the rest of the year," said Garcia.

Fed officials' forecast for rate hike pace barely changed compared to March's projections. According to their forecast, there will be one more rate hike this year, and three more next year.

"All told, we think the current medians for the Fed rate hike path will hold steady," said Craig Bishop, lead strategist for U.S. Fixed Income, RBC Wealth Management-U.S.

Fundamentally, higher interest rates increase the value of a country's currency because those higher interest rates generally attract foreign investors to that country.

However, the U.S. dollar continued to decline against most major currencies on Wednesday after the central bank's decision.

"Clearly, it is never that simple in foreign exchange markets as there are many other factors to consider, such as market positions and expectations of further rate hikes," Stephen Simonis, Sr., currency consultant for FXDD Global, told Xinhua.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.08 percent at 96.901 in late trading Wednesday.

"Two main factors however come in to play specifically in this case - a country's political and economic stability. While the
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' economy is steady, its political situation is anything but stable. Distractions in Washington can slow the new administration's tax reforms and fiscal stimulus agenda. It is just too simplistic to say that higher interest rates equals a stronger dollar especially since the rate hike is widely expected has already been factored in the exchange rate," Simonis said.

On the other economic front, advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May decreased 0.3 percent from the previous month to 473.8 billion U.S. dollars, the Commerce Department announced Wednesday.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, rose 2.11 percent to 10.64.
 
Evolving into something revolutionary soon enough given everything Amazon's been up to.

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TECHNOLOGY NEWS | Fri Jun 16, 2017 | 11:11am EDT
Amazon to buy upmarket grocer Whole Foods for $13.7 billion

By Lauren Hirsch and Anya George Tharakan
Amazon.com Inc said on Friday it would buy U.S. organic supermarket chain Whole Foods Market Inc for $13.7 billion, including debt, marking the internet retailer's largest deal and biggest foray into the brick-and-mortar retail sector.

The deal, which puts a 27 percent premium on Whole Foods' closing share price on Thursday, would could give the grocer a major competitive edge by allowing it to tap into Amazon's massive power to buy and sell goods at a lower cost.

Whole Foods recently had come under pressure from activist hedge fund Jana Partners LLC, prompting it to overhaul its board.

"I think that this takes all of the pressure off Whole Foods and gives Whole Foods the opportunity to revitalize that business and of course it stems the criticism from all of these activist investors," said Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail in New York.

The deal values Whole Foods at $42 per share. The shares were trading just under that level in early trading, while Amazon's shares were up 0.9 percent at $997.41.

Excluding debt, the deal is valued at $13.39 billion, based on 318.9 million diluted shares outstanding as of April 9.

The grocer will continue to operate stores under the Whole Foods Market brand, the companies said.

John Mackey will continue as chief executive of Whole Foods, and the company's headquarters will remain in Austin, Texas.

Amazon and Whole Foods expect to close the deal during the second half of 2017.

(Reporting by Sruthi Ramakrishnan in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Paul Simao)
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Watching English show in Netflix about the Politic in England after WWII where both end of politic spectrum coalesce to the center giving England political stability and allow it to spread the prosperity
As America's Trapped In Ideological Civil War, China Advances Economy
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,
CONTRIBUTOR
I write about the Chinese economy and financial sector.
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Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
China is poised to move its economy forward faster in the short to medium run than America, a nation caught in political paralysis. While China may not become surpass the U.S. as an economic power, it is coming closer than ever.
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Frames of Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are display in a photo shop in Beijing on April 17, 2017. (FRED DUFOUR/AFP/Getty Images)

While the United States engages in an ideological civil war about the role of the government in the economy, China has continued to advance its economy under a stable regime, albeit authoritarian. Many analysts have noted that China has an opportunity to become a world leader on several fronts—economy, international relations, environment—while America’s legislative juggernaut grinds to a halt, and the differences in legislation passed in the U.S. and China after President Trump took office could not throw this into starker relief.

America, polarized and paralyzed

On the economic front, the U.S. is divided into Trump supporters, who advocate for privatization of markets and public goods, including national monuments, Medicare, air traffic control, and infrastructure. Trump supporters also back policies that focus on reducing trade and reshoring jobs. On the other hand are Trump opponents, who push for accessible health care, free trade, environmental protection, “green” sector job creation. Donald Trump has acted as a lightning rod for this polarizing controversy, which has resulted in legislative gridlock and national discontent.

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Trump did issue executive orders that impact the economy, including an order to enforce countervailing duties, which were implemented on Chinese steel imports last year, one potentially permitting offshore drilling, and an order for the U.S. government to buy and hire more American products and workers. None of these is considered major, which would require approval of the Legislature.


China, full-speed ahead

By contrast, since Trump's inauguration date on January 20 of this year,
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, including measures setting up a large fund to promote high valued added service exports, regulating dangerous asset management products, altering the exchange rate valuation, furthering overcapacity policies, and reforming state owned enterprises, among others. These are major, economy-shaping changes that reflect China’s desire to restructure its economy while reining in risks. Furthermore, China’s One Belt One Road policy, which aims to build up infrastructure across Europe, Asia and Africa will have a major economic impact on both China and the world, with the U.S. playing a supporting, rather than a leading, role.

Ongoing differences, dangerous new similarity

To some extent, the difference between China and the U.S. is due to a contrast in regime type. China, with an authoritarian government, can carry out policies from the top down without having to enter into a long debate or even a conversation, while the U.S. must pass most major policies by obtaining the cooperation of Congress and the President, which can take months or years.

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However, in less savory ways, China and the U.S. under President Trump are becoming more alike. China has passed legislation that infringes on human rights—for example, banning certain Muslim names for Uighur babies and banning Muslim beards and body coverings. This type of policy would normally have little place in the United States, except of late, as Trump attempted twice to implement a Muslim ban.

Implications for the U.S. and China

This means that the U.S. is at a level of ethics that it has called China out on previously, but at a rate of legislation that is far overshadowed by that of China. Put simply, America is losing its economic and moral superiority to China, with no end in sight. Many Americans would like to see the President support policies and regimes that are more human-rights friendly. This just underlines the fact that the current civil war in the U.S. is one of ideas, one that drills down to the level of basic values and world views.

China is poised to move its economy forward faster in the short to medium run than America, a nation caught in political paralysis. While China may not become surpass the U.S. as an economic power, it is coming closer than ever.
 
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delft

Brigadier
This means that the U.S. is at a level of ethics that it has called China out on previously,
Human right generally plays a small role within the US and is mainly used in propaganda internationally. Last week I heard a discussion on BBC Radio 4 about the populist party that was developing in the late 19th century especially among the poor country folk who were being exploited by the rail roads and other monopolists. ( The rail roads weren't monopolists in the connections between cities but they were for a farmer wanting to get his crop to the market). The members and potential members included white as well as black people and to destroy that party the Southern states ( Democrats at the time ) introduced the Jim Crow laws to achieve Apartheid and make it impossible for many black people to vote. Also we still see many unarmed black people being killed by the police.
 

delft

Brigadier
Found in New York Times:
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The Car Was Repossessed, but the Debt Remains
By
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and
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JUNE 18, 2017

More than a decade after Yvette Harris’s 1997 Mitsubishi was repossessed, she is still paying off her car loan.

She has no choice. Her auto lender took her to court and won the right to seize a portion of her income to cover her debt. The lender has so far been able to garnish $4,133 from her paychecks — a drain that at one point forced Ms. Harris, a single mother who lives in the Bronx, to go on public assistance to support her two sons.

“How am I still paying for a car I don’t have?” she asked.

For millions of Americans like Ms. Harris who have shaky credit and had to turn to subprime auto loans with high interest rates and hefty fees to buy a car, there is no getting out.

Many of these auto loans, it turns out, have a habit of haunting people long after their cars have been repossessed.

The reason: Unable to recover the balance of the loans by repossessing and reselling the cars, some subprime lenders are aggressively suing borrowers to collect what remains — even 13 years later.

Ms. Harris’s predicament goes a long way toward explaining how lenders, working hand in hand with auto dealers, have made billions of dollars extending high-interest loans to Americans on the financial margins.

These are people desperate enough to take on thousands of dollars of debt at interest rates as high as 24 percent for one simple reason: Without a car, they have no way to get to work or to doctors.

With their low credit scores, buying or leasing a new car is not an option. And when all the interest and fees of a subprime loan are added up, even a used car with mechanical defects and many miles on the odometer can end up costing more than a new car.

Subprime lenders are willing to take a chance on these risky borrowers because when they default, the lenders can repossess their cars and persuade judges in 46 states to give them the power to seize borrowers’ paychecks to cover the balance of the car loan.

Now, with defaults rising, federal banking regulators and economists are worried how the strain of these loans will spill over into the broader economy.

For low-income Americans, the fallout could, in some ways, be worse than the mortgage crisis.

With mortgages, people could turn in the keys to their house and walk away. But with auto debt, there is increasingly no exit. Repossession, rather than being the end, is just the beginning.

“Low-income earners are shackled to this debt,” said Shanna Tallarico, a consumer lawyer with the New York Legal Assistance Group.

There are no national tallies of how many borrowers face the collection lawsuits, known within the industry as deficiency cases. But state records show that the courts are becoming flooded with such lawsuits.

For example, the large subprime lender Credit Acceptance has filed more than 17,000 lawsuits against borrowers in New York alone since 2010, court records show. And debt buyers — companies that scoop up huge numbers of soured loans for pennies on the dollar — bring their own cases, breathing new life into old bills.

Portfolio Recovery Associates, one of the nation’s largest debt buyers, purchased about $30.2 million of auto deficiencies in the first quarter of this year, up from $411,000 just a year earlier.

One of the people Credit Acceptance sued is Nagham Jawad, a refugee from Iraq, who moved to Syracuse after her father was killed. Soon after settling into her new home in 2009, Ms. Jawad took out a loan for $5,900 and bought a used car.

After only a few months on the road, the transmission on the 10-year-old Chevy Tahoe gave out. The vehicle was in such bad shape that her lender didn’t bother to repossess it when Ms. Jawad, 39, fell behind on payments.

“These are garbage cars sold at outrageous interest rates,” said her lawyer, Gary J. Pieples, director of the consumer law clinic at the Syracuse University College of Law.

The value of any car typically starts to decline the moment it leaves the dealer’s lot. In the subprime market, however, the value of the cars is often beside the point.

A dealership in Queens refused to cancel Theresa Robinson’s loan of nearly $8,000 and give her a refund for a car that broke down days after she drove it off the lot.

Instead, Ms. Robinson, a Staten Island resident who is physically disabled and was desperate for a car to get to her doctors’ appointments, was told to pick a different car from the lot.

The second car she selected — a 2005 Chrysler Pacifica — eventually broke down as well. Unable to afford the loan payments after sinking thousands of dollars into repairs, Ms. Robinson defaulted.

Her subprime lender took her to court and won the right to garnish her income from babysitting her grandson to cover her loan payments.

Ms. Robinson and her lawyer, Ms. Tallarico, are now fighting to get the judgment overturned.

“Essentially, the dealers are not selling cars. They are selling bad loans,” said Adam Taub, a lawyer in Detroit who has defended consumers in hundreds of these cases.

Many lawyers assisting poor borrowers like Ms. Robinson say they learn about the lawsuits only after a judge has issued a decision in favor of the lender.

Most borrowers can’t afford lawyers and don’t show up to court to challenge the lawsuits. That means the collectors win many cases, transforming the debts into judgments they can use to garnish wages.

The lenders argue that they are just recouping through the courts what they are legally owed. They also argue that subprime auto lending meets an important need.

And collecting on the debt is a critical part of the business. The first item on the quarterly earnings of Credit Acceptance, the large subprime auto lender, is not the amount of loans it makes, but what it expects to collect on the debt.

The company, for example, expects a 72 percent collection rate on loans made in 2014 — the year that a used 2009 Volkswagen Tiguan was repossessed from Nina Lysloff of Ypsilanti, Mich.

With all the interest and fees on her Credit Acceptance loan factored in, the car ended up costing her $28,383. Ms. Lysloff could have bought a brand-new Volkswagen Tiguan for $22,149, according to Kelley Blue Book.

When Ms. Lysloff fell behind, the trade-in value on the car was a fraction of what she still owed. Last year, Credit Acceptance sued her for $15,755.

The strategy at Credit Acceptance, which has a market value of $4.4 billion, is yielding big profits. The Michigan company said its return on equity, a measure of profitability, was 31 percent last year — more than four times Bank of America’s return.

Credit Acceptance did not respond to requests for comment.

Some of the people who got subprime loans lacked enough income to qualify for any loan.

U.S. Bank is pursuing Tara Pearson for the $9,339 left after her 2011 Hyundai Accent was stolen and she could not pay the fee to get it from the impound lot. When she purchased the car in 2015 at a dealership in Winchester, Ky., Ms. Pearson said, she explained that her only income was about $722 from Social Security.

Her loan application listed things differently. Her employer was identified as “S.S.I.,” and her income was put at $2,750, court records show.

Citing continuing litigation, U.S. Bank declined to comment about Ms. Pearson.

Auto lending was one of the few types of credit that did not dry up during the financial crisis. It now stands at more than $1.1 trillion.

Despite many signs that the market is overheating, securities tied to the loans are so profitable — yielding twice as much as certain Treasury securities — that they remain a sought-after investment on Wall Street.

“The dog keeps eating until its stomach explodes,” said Daniel Zwirn, who runs Arena, a hedge fund that has avoided subprime auto investments.

Some lenders are pulling back from making new loans. Subprime auto lending reached a 10-year low in the first quarter. But for those borrowers already stuck with debt, there is no end in sight.

Ms. Harris, the single mother from the Bronx, said that even after her wages had been garnished and she paid an additional $2,743 on her own, her lender was still seeking to collect about $6,500.

“It’s been a nightmare,” she said.
The price a country pays for having a disfunctional public transport system and an amoral financial system.
 
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