American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
.. no wonder 
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Come on guys lets go back to economy
All the skeptic are wrong China keep growing
China first-quarter GDP grows faster than expected 6.9 pct, steel output hits record
By Kevin Yao
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market that is showing signs of overheating.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8 percent in the first quarter, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of 2016.
First-quarter growth was the fastest since the third quarter of 2015, with March data showing investment, retail sales, factory output and exports all grew faster than expected.
The strong reading should help underpin wobbly global financial markets but adds to worries that China's government is still relying too heavily on stimulus and "old economy" growth drivers and is not doing enough to tackle risks from an explosive build-up in debt.
While China's data has been largely upbeat so far this year, many analysts widely expect the world's second-largest economy to lose steam later in the year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities step up their battle to rein in hot housing prices.
Real estate investment growth accelerated to 9.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, as the pace of new construction starts quickened despite intensified government cooling measures.
Though policymakers have pledged repeatedly to push reforms to head off financial risks and asset bubbles, the government is seeking to keep the world's second-largest economy on an even keel ahead of a major leadership transition later this year.
The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5 percent in 2017, slightly lower than last year's target of 6.5-7 percent and the actual 6.7 percent, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.
Economic data was up across the board in March, with factory output increasing at the fastest pace since December 2014 and firms stepping up capital investments after a slowdown last year.
Industrial output rose 7.6 percent in March, with steel output the highest on record, according to Reuters data, adding to evidence of a global manufacturing revival that is buoying prices of industrial materials from iron ore to coking coal.
But consumption also appears to be picking up, contributing to 77.2 percent of first-quarter growth, while retail sales growth picked up to 10.9 percent after slowing in the first two months of the year.
Still, many analysts expect economic growth to cool later this year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities resort to ever-tougher measures in a bid to get soaring home prices under control.
Beijing also is continuing to rely heavily on new credit to generate growth as productivity slows, despite worries about debt risks.
China's banks extended the third highest loans on record in the first quarter, though March lending was less than expected.
At the same time, China's central bank has shifted to a tightening bias, and is using more targeted measures to contain risks in the financial system, after years of ultra-loose settings.
It has raised short-term interest rates several times already this year, and further modest hikes are expected as it tries to coax debt-laden firms to reduce leverage.
(Reporting by Kevin Yao; Writing by Elias Glenn; Editing by Kim Coghill)
All the skeptic are wrong China keep growing
China first-quarter GDP grows faster than expected 6.9 pct, steel output hits record
By Kevin Yao
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market that is showing signs of overheating.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8 percent in the first quarter, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of 2016.
First-quarter growth was the fastest since the third quarter of 2015, with March data showing investment, retail sales, factory output and exports all grew faster than expected.
The strong reading should help underpin wobbly global financial markets but adds to worries that China's government is still relying too heavily on stimulus and "old economy" growth drivers and is not doing enough to tackle risks from an explosive build-up in debt.
While China's data has been largely upbeat so far this year, many analysts widely expect the world's second-largest economy to lose steam later in the year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities step up their battle to rein in hot housing prices.
Real estate investment growth accelerated to 9.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, as the pace of new construction starts quickened despite intensified government cooling measures.
Though policymakers have pledged repeatedly to push reforms to head off financial risks and asset bubbles, the government is seeking to keep the world's second-largest economy on an even keel ahead of a major leadership transition later this year.
The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5 percent in 2017, slightly lower than last year's target of 6.5-7 percent and the actual 6.7 percent, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.
Economic data was up across the board in March, with factory output increasing at the fastest pace since December 2014 and firms stepping up capital investments after a slowdown last year.
Industrial output rose 7.6 percent in March, with steel output the highest on record, according to Reuters data, adding to evidence of a global manufacturing revival that is buoying prices of industrial materials from iron ore to coking coal.
But consumption also appears to be picking up, contributing to 77.2 percent of first-quarter growth, while retail sales growth picked up to 10.9 percent after slowing in the first two months of the year.
Still, many analysts expect economic growth to cool later this year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities resort to ever-tougher measures in a bid to get soaring home prices under control.
Beijing also is continuing to rely heavily on new credit to generate growth as productivity slows, despite worries about debt risks.
China's banks extended the third highest loans on record in the first quarter, though March lending was less than expected.
At the same time, China's central bank has shifted to a tightening bias, and is using more targeted measures to contain risks in the financial system, after years of ultra-loose settings.
It has raised short-term interest rates several times already this year, and further modest hikes are expected as it tries to coax debt-laden firms to reduce leverage.
(Reporting by Kevin Yao; Writing by Elias Glenn; Editing by Kim Coghill)
SamuraiBlue
Captain
Come on guys lets go back to economy
All the skeptic are wrong China keep growing
China first-quarter GDP grows faster than expected 6.9 pct, steel output hits record
By Kevin Yao.......snip
Wrong thread.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Not unless PRC plans to dump more steel here. That son of a bitch Robert Shitzinger better be ready to deal with it.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Sorry
Here is why American economy is stagnant It has nothing to do with China stealing job from US and more to do with short term planning of american economy. They are obsessed with quarterly report and missed the big picture. And stop accusing China of stealing technology. You just can;t prevent you competitor from copying Do better job at long range planning and invest in people and technology
Why China is beating the U.S. at innovation
, USA TODAYPublished 8:23 a.m. ET April 17, 2017 | Updated 11 minutes ago
Why China is beating the U.S. at innovation
Why China is beating the U.S. at innovatio...
CLOSE
China is surpassing the U.S. in new product research and development. Could this have an impact on the U.S. economy? USA TODAY
20COMMENTEMAILMORE
For decades, America lost factories and jobs to China but retained a coveted title: the world's leader in inventing and commercializing new products.
Now, even that status has been eroded, and it's hurting the economy .
While the United States is still at the top in total investment in research and development — spending $500 billion in 2015 — has made a startling finding: A couple of years ago, China quietly surpassed the U.S. in spending on the later stage of R&D that turns discoveries into commercial products. And at its current rate of spending, China will invest up to twice as much as the U.S., or $658 billion, by 2018 on this critical late-stage research.
In other words, the U.S. Is doing the hard work of inventing new technologies, and China, among other countries, is reaping the benefits by taking those ideas and turning them into commercial products,the report says.
“Other countries are free-riding on the U.S. investment," says Justin Rose, who co-authored the BCG study.
The slippage is a significant blow for the U.S. economy, costing the country tens of billions of dollars a year in manufacturing output and hundreds of thousands of factory jobs over the past decade or so, BCG says. Companies that lead in commercializing ideas also typically build factories near their research centers so scientists can test products before making them.
The burgeoning commercial drone market is a prime example of the shift. The U.S. military developed drone technology throughout the 20th Century for reconnaissance and other purposes, adding microchips for better wireless control and longer-lasting batteries. But China’s Da-Jiang Innovations has refined the unmanned vehicles to better avoid obstacles and has become the world’s largest builder of commercial drones. It sells them to U.S. real estate and construction firms for applications such as aerial photography and mapping. DJI has three factories in Shenzhen.
The U.S. has also given birth to a Smithsonian-worthy collection of breakthrough technologies -- including flat-panel displays, digital mobile handsets, notebook computers and solar panels — only to fumble away their development to other countries, particularly China and Japan.
The BCG study concludes the U.S. has the potential to reverse the trend through better collaboration among private industry, universities and research consortia. Such a shift would increase annual manufacturing output by 5%, or $100 billion, and add 700,000 factory jobs and another 1.9 million in other sectors through ripple effects.
Yet while President Trump is focused on narrowing the nation’s trade deficit, his proposed budget would slash federal funding for R&D, potentially snuffing out a significant source of U.S. manufacturing jobs that could help accomplish that goal. Last year, the U.S. had an $83 billion trade gap in advanced technology products, according to the Census Bureau.
The country is still the global leader in “basic and applied” R&D, which makes early discoveries and further refines them. About a third of the $500 billion the country spends on R&D is funneled to those activities. But while two-thirds of the total goes to later-stage “development” R&D, China invests 84% of its R&D money on advances that yield commercial products. For the past decade, “development” R&D has been growing 20% a year in China, versus 5% in the U.S., the BCG report says. As recently as 2004, the U.S. spent four times as much as China.
In China, many technology companies are state-owned and so they don’t have to worry if massive R&D spending yields losses until a product is commercialized, and even the research of private firms is often subsidized by the government, says Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. The Chinese government, he says, also gives the private sector specific timetables for achieving dominance in areas such as solar, printers, robots and drones. And China routinely steals technology and fails to enforce patent laws, Atkinson says
“They have huge advantages,” he says.
There’s ample opportunity for a U.S. turnaround, BCG says, with 75 of the world’s 200 highest-rated universities located in the U.S. But there’s little cooperation among the schools, which do the lion’s share of basic and applied research, largely through federal grants, and private companies, which do most of the development research.
The Study:
Among the obstacles BCG identified:
• Schools do a poor job of promoting their latest research and putting it in a digestible form for manufacturers. And researchers are focused on securing tenure, while companies are seeking a return on their investment. When companies do partner with universities, it’s often for a limited, product-specific purpose rather than for developing industrywide solutions that take longer to bring to fruition but can create many more jobs.
“Companies are being gun-shy and risk-averse and not wanting to make big bets on transformative technology,” Atkinson says. Instead, the're focused on quarterly profits, which typically determine executives' bonuses.
• U.S. manufacturers are reluctant to collaborate with other companies because they don't want to share the fruits of their research with competitors.
• Manufacturers are reluctant to work with suppliers to establish industrywide standards that can reduce costs and speed implementation of technologies, fearing the suppliers would share the information with competitors.
The study says the government should set up a central repository for federally- funded university research; school research should be geared toward commercializing products; manufacturers should build long-term relationships with universities, such as Procter & Gamble’s link-up with the University of Cincinnati; and public-private research consortia should focus on developing industrywide solutions. Since 2008, P&G has invested millions of dollars in a university computer simulation center to enhance its consumer household products, their packaging and manufacturing processes.
“If we want to be the leader in product development for things that matter in people’s lives, pushing money into developing important (products) is what we should be focused on,” BCG’s Rose says.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
They will soon starved of talent as living standard improve in China and the economy moved the ladder China need their own talent combined with bamboo ceiling and restriction of visa. there is just no choice but to go home
China's 'Best And Brightest' Leaving U.S. Universities And Returning Home
,
For thousands of Chinese teens flocking to American colleges, the pursuit of the American dream is often dependent on the H1-B visa. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images)
Chinese college students studying in the U.S. are finding it just as interesting these days to return home to the world's No. 2 economy rather than staying a few years in the world's No. 1.
Some 82.23% of students who studied abroad returned to China last year, up from 72.38% in 2012, according to government figures.
China's 21st Century Education Research Institute said foreign countries’ job markets could not accommodate the surge in Chinese students. It wasn't just Chinese studying in their preferred country -- the United States -- but also included students that were studying in New Zealand and Australia as well. National Institute of Education Sciences researcher Chu Chaohui said returning students had more resources and better networks in China to find a job, while Chinese students in the U.S. were dependent on 20,000 H1-B visas for tens of thousands of students, not only from China, and the majority of them working in computer sciences.
Most wealthy Chinese that buy real estate in the U.S. are buying properties for their children to live in during their college years. In fact, college is the number one driver of Chinese real estate sales here. But as this market gets more saturated, and as China's economy becomes more entrepreneurial, students are finding the market to be just as welcoming to them there. Having a U.S. diploma helps.
China's 'Best And Brightest' Leaving U.S. Universities And Returning Home
,
For thousands of Chinese teens flocking to American colleges, the pursuit of the American dream is often dependent on the H1-B visa. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images)
Chinese college students studying in the U.S. are finding it just as interesting these days to return home to the world's No. 2 economy rather than staying a few years in the world's No. 1.
Some 82.23% of students who studied abroad returned to China last year, up from 72.38% in 2012, according to government figures.
China's 21st Century Education Research Institute said foreign countries’ job markets could not accommodate the surge in Chinese students. It wasn't just Chinese studying in their preferred country -- the United States -- but also included students that were studying in New Zealand and Australia as well. National Institute of Education Sciences researcher Chu Chaohui said returning students had more resources and better networks in China to find a job, while Chinese students in the U.S. were dependent on 20,000 H1-B visas for tens of thousands of students, not only from China, and the majority of them working in computer sciences.
Most wealthy Chinese that buy real estate in the U.S. are buying properties for their children to live in during their college years. In fact, college is the number one driver of Chinese real estate sales here. But as this market gets more saturated, and as China's economy becomes more entrepreneurial, students are finding the market to be just as welcoming to them there. Having a U.S. diploma helps.
Equation
Lieutenant General
They will soon starved of talent as living standard improve in China and the economy moved the ladder China need their own talent combined with bamboo ceiling and restriction of visa. there is just no choice but to go home
China's 'Best And Brightest' Leaving U.S. Universities And Returning Home
,
For thousands of Chinese teens flocking to American colleges, the pursuit of the American dream is often dependent on the H1-B visa. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images)
Chinese college students studying in the U.S. are finding it just as interesting these days to return home to the world's No. 2 economy rather than staying a few years in the world's No. 1.
Some 82.23% of students who studied abroad returned to China last year, up from 72.38% in 2012, according to government figures.
China's 21st Century Education Research Institute said foreign countries’ job markets could not accommodate the surge in Chinese students. It wasn't just Chinese studying in their preferred country -- the United States -- but also included students that were studying in New Zealand and Australia as well. National Institute of Education Sciences researcher Chu Chaohui said returning students had more resources and better networks in China to find a job, while Chinese students in the U.S. were dependent on 20,000 H1-B visas for tens of thousands of students, not only from China, and the majority of them working in computer sciences.
Most wealthy Chinese that buy real estate in the U.S. are buying properties for their children to live in during their college years. In fact, college is the number one driver of Chinese real estate sales here. But as this market gets more saturated, and as China's economy becomes more entrepreneurial, students are finding the market to be just as welcoming to them there. Having a U.S. diploma helps.
Trump era are proof that the brain drain in America will only get worse.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Sorry
Here is why American economy is stagnant It has nothing to do with China stealing job from US and more to do with short term planning of american economy. They are obsessed with quarterly report and missed the big picture. And stop accusing China of stealing technology. You just can;t prevent you competitor from copying Do better job at long range planning and invest in people and technology
Why China is beating the U.S. at innovation
, USA TODAYPublished 8:23 a.m. ET April 17, 2017 | Updated 11 minutes ago
Why China is beating the U.S. at innovation
Why China is beating the U.S. at innovatio...
CLOSE
China is surpassing the U.S. in new product research and development. Could this have an impact on the U.S. economy? USA TODAY
20COMMENTEMAILMORE
For decades, America lost factories and jobs to China but retained a coveted title: the world's leader in inventing and commercializing new products.
Now, even that status has been eroded, and it's hurting the economy .
While the United States is still at the top in total investment in research and development — spending $500 billion in 2015 — has made a startling finding: A couple of years ago, China quietly surpassed the U.S. in spending on the later stage of R&D that turns discoveries into commercial products. And at its current rate of spending, China will invest up to twice as much as the U.S., or $658 billion, by 2018 on this critical late-stage research.
In other words, the U.S. Is doing the hard work of inventing new technologies, and China, among other countries, is reaping the benefits by taking those ideas and turning them into commercial products,the report says.
“Other countries are free-riding on the U.S. investment," says Justin Rose, who co-authored the BCG study.
The slippage is a significant blow for the U.S. economy, costing the country tens of billions of dollars a year in manufacturing output and hundreds of thousands of factory jobs over the past decade or so, BCG says. Companies that lead in commercializing ideas also typically build factories near their research centers so scientists can test products before making them.
The burgeoning commercial drone market is a prime example of the shift. The U.S. military developed drone technology throughout the 20th Century for reconnaissance and other purposes, adding microchips for better wireless control and longer-lasting batteries. But China’s Da-Jiang Innovations has refined the unmanned vehicles to better avoid obstacles and has become the world’s largest builder of commercial drones. It sells them to U.S. real estate and construction firms for applications such as aerial photography and mapping. DJI has three factories in Shenzhen.
The U.S. has also given birth to a Smithsonian-worthy collection of breakthrough technologies -- including flat-panel displays, digital mobile handsets, notebook computers and solar panels — only to fumble away their development to other countries, particularly China and Japan.
The BCG study concludes the U.S. has the potential to reverse the trend through better collaboration among private industry, universities and research consortia. Such a shift would increase annual manufacturing output by 5%, or $100 billion, and add 700,000 factory jobs and another 1.9 million in other sectors through ripple effects.
Yet while President Trump is focused on narrowing the nation’s trade deficit, his proposed budget would slash federal funding for R&D, potentially snuffing out a significant source of U.S. manufacturing jobs that could help accomplish that goal. Last year, the U.S. had an $83 billion trade gap in advanced technology products, according to the Census Bureau.
The country is still the global leader in “basic and applied” R&D, which makes early discoveries and further refines them. About a third of the $500 billion the country spends on R&D is funneled to those activities. But while two-thirds of the total goes to later-stage “development” R&D, China invests 84% of its R&D money on advances that yield commercial products. For the past decade, “development” R&D has been growing 20% a year in China, versus 5% in the U.S., the BCG report says. As recently as 2004, the U.S. spent four times as much as China.
In China, many technology companies are state-owned and so they don’t have to worry if massive R&D spending yields losses until a product is commercialized, and even the research of private firms is often subsidized by the government, says Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. The Chinese government, he says, also gives the private sector specific timetables for achieving dominance in areas such as solar, printers, robots and drones. And China routinely steals technology and fails to enforce patent laws, Atkinson says
“They have huge advantages,” he says.
There’s ample opportunity for a U.S. turnaround, BCG says, with 75 of the world’s 200 highest-rated universities located in the U.S. But there’s little cooperation among the schools, which do the lion’s share of basic and applied research, largely through federal grants, and private companies, which do most of the development research.
The Study:
Among the obstacles BCG identified:
• Schools do a poor job of promoting their latest research and putting it in a digestible form for manufacturers. And researchers are focused on securing tenure, while companies are seeking a return on their investment. When companies do partner with universities, it’s often for a limited, product-specific purpose rather than for developing industrywide solutions that take longer to bring to fruition but can create many more jobs.
“Companies are being gun-shy and risk-averse and not wanting to make big bets on transformative technology,” Atkinson says. Instead, the're focused on quarterly profits, which typically determine executives' bonuses.
• U.S. manufacturers are reluctant to collaborate with other companies because they don't want to share the fruits of their research with competitors.
• Manufacturers are reluctant to work with suppliers to establish industrywide standards that can reduce costs and speed implementation of technologies, fearing the suppliers would share the information with competitors.
The study says the government should set up a central repository for federally- funded university research; school research should be geared toward commercializing products; manufacturers should build long-term relationships with universities, such as Procter & Gamble’s link-up with the University of Cincinnati; and public-private research consortia should focus on developing industrywide solutions. Since 2008, P&G has invested millions of dollars in a university computer simulation center to enhance its consumer household products, their packaging and manufacturing processes.
“If we want to be the leader in product development for things that matter in people’s lives, pushing money into developing important (products) is what we should be focused on,” BCG’s Rose says.
Don't matter what the facts and history says, the China haters will find and spin any way they can to make sure that it's China's fault.
Blackstone
Brigadier
I agree unskilled labor would decline, but I'm not so sure the immigration decline of educated or people with means would be worse under Trump than some other President. We'll still get the lion share of the world's best to immigrate (hooray!), but that growth was already flattening before Trump became President.
Equation
Lieutenant General
But the trend isn't going to reverse under Trump, that means it will only get worse. So how is the US government going to reverse this brain drain is the key question? This requires a strong, intelligent, and enlightened leaders working together to get it done. I don't have a lot of faith in that.