American Economics Thread

Franklin

Captain
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


I'm no expert on economics and I've been arguing this point forever and go even further. People want things explained to them simple. That's why they believe in the lies about trade. If they think something says "Made in China," it's 100% Chinese and China makes all the money when sold to consumers. Where are all the Chinese brands on US store shelves? I don't see hardly any except if you go to cheap low-end dollar stores. Trinkets and cheap plastic toys aren't the source of the so-called "trade imbalance." The majority of what is said to be made in China are foreign corporations outsourcing labor to make their products for them. They're the ones that make all the profits when those items are sold to consumers but it's consider 100% a Chinese export. This article continues with the mistake of using language people aren't going to understand. Of course there are many Americans using the trade lies and are just out to punish the world for their perceived lack of respect to the US. They can't do that if it's known that US corporations are the primary benefactors on the lies about trade and not countries jobs are outsourced to. Why would they outsource jobs if they weren't making even more money than they would manufacturing in the US? Hence the lie that people believe foreigners are pointing guns to Americans' heads forcing them to send jobs to their countries. These are the lies of the establishment to cover-up how they're the ones that make all the money and to distract Americans from changing the system where they benefit the most by blaming it on foreigners.

Why is Trump a bad President that even the establishment doesn't like despite how he perpetuates their lies? It's because Trump, who's a believer in those lies, is in a position to act against countries based on those lies which disrupts the system that enriches the establishment. Their costs are going to go up having to manufacture in the US. Blame it on the foreigner instead of Congress who can just simply pass a law that bans outsourcing than going through the motion of separately pushing each foreign country where jobs are outsourced to end it. Those in Congress are protecting the status quo because they too need to prevent American voters from blaming them for not doing anything thus perpetuating the lies that it always a foreigner victimizing America.

The last time China was labeled a currency manipulator was back during the Clinton Administration when China wasn't a big economic force in the world. Currency manipulation keeps US corporations' costs for outsourcing low. Slap tariffs and it's the US corporation that outsources that pays it not China. That's why Congress talks big about punishing China but they never pull the trigger. All because they lie about trade. That's why you see a lot of news contradictions where before Trump, they were for punishing China because of trade where today they're in panic that Trump might actually do something about it.
There are no truly national products anymore. Rather the label says made in China, USA, Japan, France, Germany etc. They all contain components that are made in several different countries.
 

Bernard

Junior Member
Dow closes above 21,000 as stocks post best day of 2017 after Trump's speech
U.S. equities surged to all-time highs Wednesday, the major indexes posting their best day of the year, on the back of President Donald Trump's speech to Congress.

"A lot of people say this is euphoria. But it doesn't feel like it," said Eddie Perkin, chief equity investment officer at Eaton Vance. "It feels like people are reluctantly buying stocks."

"That's why I'm a little wary," he said.

Trump's speech, which was delivered Tuesday night, was widely praised for its positive tone but lacked specifics about tax reform and deregulation, two key components of the market's postelection rally.

"The major positive from the speech is he delivered on his 'America first' message, but he did so in a positive and uniting way," said Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. "If his message of 'America first' can succeed, this could be positive for the economy" in the near term.

The Dow advanced about 300 points with
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
contributing the most gains and closing above 21,000 for the first time. The 30-stock index first closed above 20,000 on Jan. 25.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.4 percent, with financials rising 2.8 percent to lead advancers, and briefly broke above 2,400 for the first time. The index closed above 2,300 for the first time on Feb. 9.

The Nasdaq jumped 1.4 percent.

Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial, said the speech's tone "has gone a long way for the market" as it "assuaged fears that his agenda was not going to be able to be passed."

Dow futures soared more than 150 points ahead of the open, while S&P and Nasdaq futures advanced 18 and 34 points, respectively.

"While it's understandable that these things take time to plan and implement properly, markets have been way ahead of the game since Trump's victory and there comes a time when we need to know exactly what they're rallying on," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note.

Equities had closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow snapping a 12-day winning streak.

Investors also paid close attention to key economic data, as the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates surged.

Personal income rose 0.4 percent in January, topping expectations, while consumer spending slowed. However, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index jumped 1.9 percent in the 12 months through January, putting inflation very close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent.

Construction spending fell 1 percent in January, well below expectations, but the February ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.7, expanding on January's 56.0 reading.

The Fed's Beige Book was also released Wednesday, and it showed that
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
but less so than in the previous report.

Market expectations for a rate hike this month
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Also lifting March rate hike expectations were remarks from New York Fed President William Dudley, who told CNN International on Tuesday that he sees a rate hike in the "relatively near future," adding that the case for tighter monetary policy has become more compelling.

"I disagree with those who think the Fed doesn't matter anymore in terms of their influence in the context of a debt to GDP ratio that has never been higher and market valuations that are historically very rich," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.

"Changes in fiscal policy are welcome for the economy but I lean towards monetary policy in being more impactful on markets in the shorter term time horizon," he said.

U.S. Treasury yields rose broadly, with the two-year note yield hitting its highest level since 2009 and the benchmark 10-year note yield jumping to 2.46 percent.

In corporate news, investors awaited social media firm Snap Inc. to price at the New York Exchange Wednesday night before its Thursday IPO.

"It's a very well-known name and it's probably the most interesting IPO since Facebook," said Tom Wright, director of equities at JMP Securities. "I think market participants are going to look at where it prices and how it trades."

"It will give us a window into the tech IPO market, which has been subdued," he said.

Snap was set to price its initial public offering at $17 a share,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

American banks raked in record profits last year as they continue to rebound from the meltdown of 2008.
Not only did the banking industry notch its third year of record profits in the past four, but FDIC statistics published this week showed that loan growth was strong and the number of "problem banks" fell to a seven-year low.

The strong 2016 results stand in contrast with the dark picture painted by President Trump and Republicans who want to rip up financial regulation
Trump has vowed to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, calling the 2010 reform law a "disaster." He recently signed an executive order that
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


But the $171.3 billion in profits banks generated last year suggest many are doing just fine. And Democrats are likely to lean on those numbers as they seek to protect Dodd-Frank from being dismantled.

In fact, the FDIC said that out of 5,913 insured institutions, 59% of them generated profits in the fourth quarter of last year. The percentage of banks suffering losses dipped to 8.1%.

"The American banking system has certainly come back from the financial crisis. Things aren't as bad as people would like to suggest," said Nathan Dean, a financial policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

170302153010-chart-bank-profit-loss-780x439.jpg

Others argue that banks should actually be thanking Dodd-Frank for their financial fortunes.

"The fact is that record profits of this period rest in significant part on the renewed confidence in finance -- and that rests on Dodd-Frank," said Robert Shapiro, who advised the Obama and Clinton administrations.

He pointed to the lighter regulation in Europe and the struggles of lenders there, particularly in Spain,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and Germany.

"Far from being a burden, regulation has benefited finance," said Shapiro, a senior fellow at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business.

Federal Reserve Chairman
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on the argument that Dodd-Frank has made American banks less competitive.

U.S. banks are "quite profitable" and considered "quite strong relative to their counterparts," Yellen told Congress last month. Yellen credited the fact that American banks quickly built up capital after the crisis, "as a result of our insistence they do so."

170213113336-business-loans-banks-780x439.jpg

Of course, none of this means that Dodd-Frank is perfect and U.S. banks don't have obstacles.

FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said in the report that while the banking industry enjoyed "another largely positive quarter," the operating environment for banks "remains challenging."

In particular, banks have suffered from almost a decade of near-zero interest rates, which makes it harder for them to earn money. But bank stocks have risen lately in part due to signs that the Fed is moving to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
more quickly.

And there's community banks. Even Dodd-Frank co-author Barney Frank admits the reform law may have been
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The former Democratic congressman
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that community and midsize banks need relief from the heavy legal costs they incurred from Dodd-Frank.

The American Bankers Association, an industry group, put out a statement in response to the FDIC report that acknowledged the "solid performance" of banks in 2016.

However, ABA chief economist James Chessen blamed "regulatory pressures and greater capital requirements" for forcing 251 bank mergers last year.

"The underlying regulatory pressures driving community banks to sell or merge can't be ignored," Chessen said, adding that there needs to be a "tailored system of regulation."

But community banks didn't perform poorly last year. The FDIC said community bank profits jumped 10.5% in the fourth quarter as revenue and loan growth outpaced the rest of the industry.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
American banks raked in record profits last year as they continue to rebound from the meltdown of 2008.
Not only did the banking industry notch its third year of record profits in the past four, but FDIC statistics published this week showed that loan growth was strong and the number of "problem banks" fell to a seven-year low.

The strong 2016 results stand in contrast with the dark picture painted by President Trump and Republicans who want to rip up financial regulation
Trump has vowed to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, calling the 2010 reform law a "disaster." He recently signed an executive order that
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


But the $171.3 billion in profits banks generated last year suggest many are doing just fine. And Democrats are likely to lean on those numbers as they seek to protect Dodd-Frank from being dismantled.

In fact, the FDIC said that out of 5,913 insured institutions, 59% of them generated profits in the fourth quarter of last year. The percentage of banks suffering losses dipped to 8.1%.

"The American banking system has certainly come back from the financial crisis. Things aren't as bad as people would like to suggest," said Nathan Dean, a financial policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

170302153010-chart-bank-profit-loss-780x439.jpg

Others argue that banks should actually be thanking Dodd-Frank for their financial fortunes.

"The fact is that record profits of this period rest in significant part on the renewed confidence in finance -- and that rests on Dodd-Frank," said Robert Shapiro, who advised the Obama and Clinton administrations.

He pointed to the lighter regulation in Europe and the struggles of lenders there, particularly in Spain,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and Germany.

"Far from being a burden, regulation has benefited finance," said Shapiro, a senior fellow at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business.

Federal Reserve Chairman
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on the argument that Dodd-Frank has made American banks less competitive.

U.S. banks are "quite profitable" and considered "quite strong relative to their counterparts," Yellen told Congress last month. Yellen credited the fact that American banks quickly built up capital after the crisis, "as a result of our insistence they do so."

170213113336-business-loans-banks-780x439.jpg

Of course, none of this means that Dodd-Frank is perfect and U.S. banks don't have obstacles.

FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said in the report that while the banking industry enjoyed "another largely positive quarter," the operating environment for banks "remains challenging."

In particular, banks have suffered from almost a decade of near-zero interest rates, which makes it harder for them to earn money. But bank stocks have risen lately in part due to signs that the Fed is moving to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
more quickly.

And there's community banks. Even Dodd-Frank co-author Barney Frank admits the reform law may have been
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The former Democratic congressman
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that community and midsize banks need relief from the heavy legal costs they incurred from Dodd-Frank.

The American Bankers Association, an industry group, put out a statement in response to the FDIC report that acknowledged the "solid performance" of banks in 2016.

However, ABA chief economist James Chessen blamed "regulatory pressures and greater capital requirements" for forcing 251 bank mergers last year.

"The underlying regulatory pressures driving community banks to sell or merge can't be ignored," Chessen said, adding that there needs to be a "tailored system of regulation."

But community banks didn't perform poorly last year. The FDIC said community bank profits jumped 10.5% in the fourth quarter as revenue and loan growth outpaced the rest of the industry.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So therefore the gap between the rich and poor is getting bigger.
 

Bernard

Junior Member
So therefore the gap between the rich and poor is getting bigger.

From how I take it, with so many loans out that they are "profiting" from through interest. Means the loans are in good shape. Such as being paid on time, not foreclosing or going bankrupt. Banks making profits is not bad. It's only bad when the are not making profits, which means people are not paying their loan payments/defaulting so economy is good, businesses are doing good, and people are making housing/student loan payments. Loans are good, people start businesses, buy houses, cars, education loans, etc.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
From how I take it, with so many loans out that they are "profiting" from through interest. Means the loans are in good shape. Such as being paid on time, not foreclosing or going bankrupt. Banks making profits is not bad. It's only bad when the are not making profits equals people not paying loan payments/defaulting so economy is good businesses are doing good and people are making housing/student loan payments. Also
Yeah but will the banks CEO be willing to pay back any of those tax payers bail out money anytime soon in the Trillions of dollars? I'm not holding my breath.
 

Bernard

Junior Member
Yeah but will the banks CEO be willing to pay back any of those tax payers bail out money anytime soon in the Trillions of dollars? I'm not holding my breath.

They've been paid off for a few years now. well over 2 years but who's counting :p
U.S. Declares Bank and Auto Bailouts Over, and Profitable
By
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(DEC. 19, 2014)

WASHINGTON — Six years after President George W. Bush began the auto bailout, the Obama administration on Friday declared a profitable end to the sweeping federal interventions in Wall Street and Detroit, saying a final sale of stock from
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
’ former finance arm had closed a turbulent chapter of the financial crisis.

The programs “that helped restart the flow of credit to meet the critical needs of small businesses and consumers are now closed,” declared Treasury Secretary
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. “And while the goal was always to stabilize the economy, and not to make a profit, it is important to recognize the return we have earned for taxpayers.”

The government actions, initially seen as necessary in Washington and on Wall Street to prevent a collapse of the economy on the order of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, agitated the political world, helping give rise to the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on the right and the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
movement on the left. And even as the nation climbed out of recession and slowly recovered, many Americans were left with little trust in the nation’s government and financial institutions.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, to many of its foot soldiers, stood for Taxed Enough Already, and the bailouts were assumed to be enormous drains on the federal
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Yet in the end, the Troubled Asset Relief Program and the Detroit bailout yielded $15.35 billion in profit, Treasury officials said Friday.

“Effectively, today, our rescue of the auto industry is officially over,” President Obama said Friday, opening his end-of-the-year news conference. “We’ve now repaid taxpayers every dime and more of what my administration committed.”

In all, through TARP and other efforts, taxpayers injected $426.35 billion into banks and auto companies. The sale of stock and interest payments brought in $441.7 billion.

To critics on the left and the right, however, the numbers were almost beside the point. The impact of the government’s actions — the good, the bad and the ugly — has deeply resonated economically, politically and socially.

The financial crisis and its bailouts were the defining political moment of the last decade. First they put President Obama in office. But they swept into power a new, populist right in 2010, not only in Congress but in state legislatures that redrew political boundaries to lock those gains in place for years.


While both the Tea Party and Occupy movements in many ways appeared to embody the political fringe on both sides of the political spectrum, they gave voice to millions of Americans who felt singed, cast aside and marginalized through the sins of corporate America. Conservatives and liberals were left feeling that Washington was willing to do whatever it took to save mega-banks and corporations, while letting the vast majority struggle with unemployment, declining wages, disappearing savings and houses worth less than their mortgages.

“What we learned from TARP, the stimulus and the Detroit bailout is when big government, big business and big labor join forces at the taxpayers’ expense, it’s the average citizen who is left out,” said Jenny Beth Martin, a co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots.

The capital markets have recovered. Gas prices have plummeted and job growth is on a steady rise. But the political scars remain indelible, reflected in a politically polarized nation and the dysfunctional Congress it has elected.

“Democrats are becoming more liberal; Republicans are becoming a lot more conservative and ideological,” said John Spratt, a longtime moderate Democratic House Budget Committee chairman swept aside in the Tea Party wave of 2010. “Instead of converging into a workable relationship, we are diverging, and Lord knows how we will come to a resolution.”

Given the scale of the broader economic losses and the risk the government took to protect Wall Street and Detroit, a $15 billion profit on a $426 billion investment is nothing to celebrate, said Simon Johnson, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management.

“That’s an unfortunate and inappropriate message, given the insane costs inflicted on the American people by the actions of some very big banks,” Mr. Johnson said. “Unfortunately, it’s representative of the broader Treasury attitude around finance: We’ve fixed it. Don’t worry. Don’t bother us anymore.”

Senator
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, Democrat of Massachusetts, took to the Senate floor in the closing minutes of the 113th Congress to blast the power of Wall Street — particularly Citigroup — which she said remained undiminished since the bailout.

Photo
Bailout2-master675.jpg

President George W. Bush began the auto bailout on Dec. 19, 2008. Taxpayers put $426 billion into that industry and banks. Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times
“Enough is enough,” she said. “Washington already works really well for the billionaires and the big corporations and the lawyers and the lobbyists, but what about the families who lost their homes or their jobs or their retirement savings?”

Less than $1 billion in taxpayer funds remain scattered in about 35 community banks around the country, but with the sale on Thursday of the government’s last 54.9 million shares of Ally Financial, previously known as GMAC, the Treasury declared the bailouts done.

Thanks in part to the recent surge in stock prices, the Ally sale alone recouped $1.3 billion.

The final sale might have been dictated by market forces, but the date was resonant. On
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
President Bush announced, “Government has a responsibility to safeguard the broader health and stability of our economy,” and he used executive action to begin the auto bailout. Americans for Limited Government, an early Tea Party group, called that “Bush’s original sin” on Friday.

The bailout of GMAC started Dec. 29, 2008, with a $5 billion infusion in the last days of the Bush administration, but that grew to $17.2 billion as the Obama White House moved to save Detroit. By keeping auto finance arm alive, the administration sought to keep car and truck sales moving and auto dealerships open.

With this week’s sale, the GMAC investment yielded $2.4 billion in profit. The government no longer owns any part of the auto industry, Treasury officials announced.

Although the overall bailout efforts turned a profit, the auto rescue did not. With Friday’s announcement, taxpayers were left with a $9.5 billion loss. Most of that came from General Motors, which paid back about $39 billion of the $49.5 billion invested.

But with auto sales booming and the Big Three Detroit automakers recovered, the Obama administration now points to the Detroit rescue as one of its biggest triumphs.

“The American auto industry is on track for its strongest year since 2005,” Mr. Obama said. “And we’ve created about half a million new jobs in the auto industry alone.”

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

advill

Junior Member
We have to wait and see what happens as market fluctuations do happen for political expediency. In the final analysis will the US continue to thrive economically? Running a business or Corporation is different from running a Country. Many considerations required including: PESTS Analysis, a good guide for any country including the US: Politically (stable, united & no major internal divisions?) Economically (forward & pragmatic planning?) Social-Cultural (domestic racial issues & problems?) Technological (advancements made, & upgrading of schools, colleges, universities etc. in learning of advance technology?) & Security (internal (respected and effective police) & external strive/hostilities prevention thru' military strength, & equally important diplomacy?).
 

Bernard

Junior Member
We have to wait and see what happens as market fluctuations do happen for political expediency. In the final analysis will the US continue to thrive economically? Running a business or Corporation is different from running a Country. Many considerations required including: PESTS Analysis, a good guide for any country including the US: Politically (stable, united & no major internal divisions?) Economically (forward & pragmatic planning?) Social-Cultural (domestic racial issues & problems?) Technological (advancements made, & upgrading of schools, colleges, universities etc. in learning of advance technology?) & Security (internal (respected and effective police) & external strive/hostilities prevention thru' military strength, & equally important diplomacy?).

I would add scale of corruption in all levels of the government. Police, city, state, federal
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Looks like Trump is doing well on the jobs front, and it must hurt for CNN to admit that. We'll see if he could keep it up.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

President Trump's first full month was a big onefor jobs.
The U.S. economy added a robust 235,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department said Friday.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.7% from 4.8% in the previous month. It's a vast improvement from 2009, when unemployment peaked at 10% after the financial crisis.

"The U.S. economy is doing very very well at the moment," says Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, a foreign exchange firm.

Economists say it will be a challenge for Trump to fulfill his promise to create 25 million jobs over the next 10 years. The unemployment rate is already very low, and many Baby Boomers have either retired or left the job market.

At least in his first full month, though, Trump is on pace to fulfill that promise.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Last year, the economy averaged about 190,000 new jobs per month. The economy is showing other signs of strength: Consumer and business confidence is high, and stocks are at record levels.

Wage growth continued to show signs of progress after persisting at a sluggish pace for years. Wages grew a solid 2.8% in February compared with a year ago.

In February, manufacturing added 28,000 jobs. Trump has promised to increase manufacturing jobs by getting better trade deals for the United States. Construction companies hired another 58,000 workers last month. Experts say that increase is mainly due to warm winter weather in the Northeast and Midwest.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Jesse Singh says better weather in February helped his firm, AZEK Building Products, keep pace with rising demand ahead of the summer building season.

"The warm weather is allowing construction firms to accelerate projects to be able to continue to meet their strong demand," says Singh, whose company is based in Scranton, Pa.

However, other sectors did not perform as well. The retail sector lost 26,000 jobs in February as major retailers like JCPenney (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) announced store closings. Government and transportation jobs saw meager gains.

Solid job gains almost certainly clear the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week. Fed leaders like Chair Janet Yellen said a rate hike in March
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
if the economy stayed on track. It did just that.

"The Fed is going to hike next week. That's for sure," says Paul Mortimer, chief economist at BNP Paribas.
 
Top