America still holds the aces in its poker game over its challenger

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by AndrewS, Nov 4, 2017.

  1. AndrewS
    Offline

    AndrewS Senior Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2015
    Messages:
    1,103
    Likes Received:
    1,602
    Article in the London financial times by Joseph Nye, the "inventor" of "soft power"

    However, I see a number of analytical errors, as it is trying to look ahead 7 years, past President Trump.

    On soft power, it ignores how the China is leading Asian economic integration with RCEP. Plus we can already see that south east Asia places more importance on relations with China than the USA, as per the think tank surveys and books. And recently we saw how Vietnam gave up outright in the face of Chinese demands.

    On a US-China trade war, the actual figures from the RAND report on a blockade were a 5-10% decline for US GDP, along with 25-35% decline for China.

    But if we rerun the methodology as of October 2017, the US remains the same, whilst China drops to 20%-30%. And in another 2-3 years, it should drop to 15%-25%.

    And by the end of President Trump's second term in 7 years time? I expect both China and the US would see a similar decline in GDP (5-15%) if they got into a conflict. And it is likely that China will have a larger economy than the US no matter how it is measured.

    And the role of the US dollar? It will probably still be a global reserve currency, but it will be interesting to see what China does with the RMB if the Chinese economy is larger.
     
    antiterror13 likes this.
  2. Jura
    Offline

    Jura Senior Member

    Top Poster Of Month

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2013
    Messages:
    12,437
    Likes Received:
    17,526
    says
    Subscribe to read: Financial Times
    America still holds the aces in its poker game with China
     
  3. Figaro
    Offline

    Figaro Junior Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    416
    Likes Received:
    1,251
    The real question is why do we need to dedicate a thread for such a poorly written article? Who cares about what one writes in the Financial Times, which just so happens to also have a paywall ...
     
  4. Lethe
    Offline

    Lethe Junior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2014
    Messages:
    746
    Likes Received:
    973
    Most people have no conception of time and therefore of gradual, yet significant change.

    China was nothing (in the eyes of the world) until the combination of the Beijing Olympics and the Global Financial Crisis meant that that era of Chinese hegemony was upon us. Then the GFC receded and people forgot about China again. At one moment, China will usher in a new era of darkness, in the next China ain't shit and never will be.

    The wild rhetoric has only the loosest correlation with reality, where the changes are more gradual, more more mundane, more consistent and ultimately more significant. But the perspective to appreciate that reality, and the language to describe it, are alien to a world that exists in a perpetual 'now' and is more attentive to spectacular events than mundane processes. Western understanding of China is but one of the many casualties of our collective goldfish-like perspective on the world.
     
  5. nugroho
    Offline

    nugroho New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2012
    Messages:
    75
    Likes Received:
    96
    the writer did not include inflation, means he/she did not qualify to write economic article.
    The trade war will bring US inflation to astronomic level, and it only bring little effect ( maybe deflation ) to China, so US PPP will be eroded significantly.
    There will be no winner, both side lose.
     
    antiterror13 likes this.
  6. AssassinsMace
    Offline

    AssassinsMace Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    7,042
    Likes Received:
    6,164
    Soft power is the West's attempt to intellectualize the childish teasing of "They like me! They don't like you! Haha!" First thing is why would the US tell anyone how to get power when that means they don't have it? It's like why would the US always tell China what it takes to be innovative when that's just creating a competitor against them? China is an example how the West sounds the alarm bells when China challenges them on anything. I just read an article last week that said India will surpass the US as the number 2 user of smartphones. The comments section was a deluge of insults about India. Mad over who's number two... Americans value being number one. Why would they tell anyone what's in the secret sauce that gets them so many raves?

    Soft power is no power at all. It's essentially valuing begging for acceptance. The power doesn't lie in the people seeking "soft power." The power lies with those you're seeking acceptance from. They get to decide if what you have to offer is worth liking. Being liked is overrated. A lot of China's nationalistic neighbors try to tease how they're more liked than China. And if I can I will step in and say China is number 2 in the world and challenging number one without being liked. And number one, the US, always complains how the world disrespects them. So being like is overrated. Being liked just means you're not seen as any competition or threat to anyone who likes you.

    The West holds up India as having soft power while China doesn't. They always use the popularity of yoga as an example. So how does yoga being popular equate to having power? Is it like high school cliques. The popular people get to look down and bully those seen as lesser than them? Does it mean Indians have more rights than others that don't have soft power? The only way someone can have more rights is by taking rights away from someone else. Is it surprising that it always comes back down establishing a racist hierarchy?

    If the popularity of yoga is an example of soft power, then why isn't Chinese food? How about the popularity of Chinese medicine? How about kung fu movies? Their own definition of what is soft power all of sudden doesn't comply. Having something that is popular with others doesn't get you soft power. Again all the power lies with those get to decide what you have to offer is worthy of being liked. Then there's the lie there's some worldwide consensus that gets to determine what's liked. I remember watching a pop culture TV show and they were talking about how South Korean pop singer Psy's second music video after Gangnam Style hit millions upon millions of views on YouTube on it's first day. One of panelist snidely remarked "But those were all Asians..." meaning only American opinions count. Anyone surprised?

    The West is knocking Chinese tech and internet companies as being only domestic companies not international companies like theirs. Yeah but they make just as much or more money than theirs without international markets. Those companies are more likely to withstand international economic turbulence. ... And they don't like that. It's all about power they don't have. The nonsense over soft power as they define is all a big manipulation to get the Chinese to hand them power that their opinion matters and they want China's economy and future to depend on their opinion. They want to make Chinese to believe their opinion matters because then Chinese will choose Amazon over Alibaba, Google over Baidu, Twitter over WeChat. It all comes down to they want to have all the power and all the money.

    Why would they be so concerned to tell other countries the secrets to having power, again?
     
    delft, Shaolian, Yodello and 5 others like this.
Loading...

Share This Page