About rockets hitting Haifa

Discussion in 'World Armed Forces' started by mobydog, Aug 4, 2006.

  1. mobydog
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    mobydog New Member

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    I have posted my quiry in another forum but not much replies.. so try my luck here

    I have been puzzled about how Hez short ranged rockets been hitting Haifa regularly?

    The original Hez Katyusha rockets have a max range of only 12km (majority stock are of this variant) and was modified to extended to a range of 18 to 22km. With this modification the rockets are hardly hand-portable (approx 180kg) and have to be mounted on trucks, or required to be transported by trucks and launch from ad-hoc sites... making them quite visible from the air... but still small enough to be hidden in bushes.

    [​IMG]
    Katyusha rocket launched by Hezbollah

    The Fajr-3 has a Max range of 45km and are 40% longer and twice the diameter (240mm) of the extended Katyusha variant. each are 405 kg
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fajr-3_rocket

    [​IMG]
    Fajr-3 pic

    The Fajr-5 has a Max range of 75 km and are twice longer (approx. 10m) and 3 times the diameter (333mm) of the extended Katyusah variant... must have weigh a ton each
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fajr-5

    Both Fajr-5 and Fajr-3 are long and are definately truck launched.

    [​IMG]

    Haifa is situated appox. 35km from the Lebanese border. The IDF have total air coverage in Lebanese South and total land control 5km< and air control 30km> inside lebanon. We know that IDF will bomb any trucks and cars in South Lebanon with impunity.. therefore , even if it was possible only afew Fajr-3 would get thru.. and IDF would have spotted those trucks from a far, given South Lebanon terrain.

    My question is - How the hell could those Katyusha Rockets even reach Haifa, which is more than 40 km from the buffer zone, with a max 22 km range ?

    [​IMG]

    As I say Fajr-3 are quite large with a 45kg warhead and 5.2m long weighing 405kg... and Fajr-5 wouldn't survive long enough to launch and it has a 90kg warhead. Both have high damage ratings which does not corresponds from pics and News media of damage sites in Haifa hit by rockets... there are in fact more like pot holes. While Israel northern town were hit (which is not a surprise) there are always Rocket debris.. like latest Kiryat town rocket attack hit by short range Katyusha rockets with approx. 50 pounds of explosives.. and the hole is much bigger and deeper.

    Rockets of these size are not easy to hide, and to think that Haifa has been hit with 100 rockets(at it's height) a day. How do you hide that many Fagr-3/5 from the air anyway.

    So, it has to be Katyusha rockets, which Hez manufacture and easy to hide and transport, but it just do not have the range.
    http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/TEMP/me_hizbullah_08_29.html

    Israel News Agency reported the same . ( but has been taken Down ).. wonder why ?http://www.israelnewsagency.com/iranisraelmissilesnuclear8730918.html

    And after less than a year of a fail test, the Fajr-3 work perfectly now... And able to manufacture and launch more than 500 of them in bushes at Haifa. :shock: There are 1800 rockets launched so far into Israel.

    Even this article struggle to give a credible analysis, without saying it's a Fajr-5 (taking account of the buffer zone).. but the damage inflicted on Haifa, does not even suggest a (Fajr-3)45kg warhead element, much less a 90kg warhead of a Fajr-5.. in most instances more like a mortar hit... and then there is question of rocket debris... which is glaringly absent.
    http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=269409&selected=Analyses

    Anyone could shed a light ??
     
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  2. googeler
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    googeler New Member

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    There is no such thing as total air and land control - in any war, anyplace. The clear evidence that it is not the case here is that rockets are still hitting Israel.

    You have to consider 2 facts:
    - the terrain in the area: clean hilltops (with villages) and valleys full of thick brush, trees and with lots of natural cavities and caves
    -Hezbollah isn't moving much, they have lots of ammo and small teams hidden in the mentioned geographical features (where you can easily camouflage a Fajr-3/5 launcher and ammo. Remember that for launching their weapon of choice (122mm BM-21 Grad - wrongly called Katiusa in the West even if Katiusa isn't in service any more since the 50's-60's) they don't use a big Kamaz 6x6 truck with 40 tubes, but rather smaller instalations - usually 6 tubes on a fixed tripod or a jeep. That might also be the case with bigger rockets.
     
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  3. mobydog
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    mobydog New Member

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    OK.. no total air cover.. fair enough

    What is your view of those rockets hitting Haifa ?? What Rockets are they ? Explain those small pot-hole where the rocket hit and where are the rocket the debris.
     
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  4. googeler
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    googeler New Member

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    You wrote in the first post:
    Have you ever wondered how did they increase range, dimensions remaining the same? -> less payload (smaller warhead). It's the basic equation of any rocket.
    My speculation is that they sacrificed warhead strength (size) for range - maybe they also modified the bigger rockets (like the Grads) for longer ranges. After all the psychologycal effect is the same, even if the damage is less
     
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  5. crazyinsane105
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    crazyinsane105 Junior Member

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    Quite true. But they have also put ball bearings in the rocket warheads as to make up for the decreased warhead size.
     
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  6. The_Zergling
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    The_Zergling Junior Member

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    Well if they sacrificed warhead power in favor of increased range, that would explain the bizzarely low Israeli civilian casualties... I think it was like 200 rockets for each death or something?
     
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  7. DennisDaMenace
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    DennisDaMenace New Member

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    It looks like Hizbollah has several types of unguided rockets. From the dammage done so far it looks like they can dammage buildings and other standing objects but can not penetrate into bunkers and bombshelters. They have no penetration power (lower casualties). I have seen the caseing of some of these rockets on TV and they are diamond shaped grids that will break off on impact along with the ballbearings inside -sharpnel.
    Most of the big casualties on the Lebonise side has been when the IDF has hit bunkers or bomb shelters with penetrating munitions. I have to admit the IDF does not always choose its targets as well as I would like. This war seems to be more of a political battle then tactical or strategic. The more the Lebonese suffer, the bigger the victory for Hezbolla. Go figure?
     
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  8. coolieno99
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    coolieno99 New Member

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    Just cover the missiles with camouflaged nettings. During Gulf War I, the U.S. failed to find a single Scud-A missile/launcher in Iraq(and they tried very hard). Iraq launched all 79 Scuds without being detected. These missiles/launchers are much, much larger than any of Hezabollah rockets, and Iraq is a flat featureless desert.
     
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  9. googeler
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    googeler New Member

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    DennisDaMenace wrote:
    I couldn't have put it better myself. This particular campaign CANNOT be won the way it's been fought until now. The Israelis need to send in commandos to clear the strongpoints and prepared ambushes and to make way for the armour and regular troops. All this with close support from attack helos and perhaps planes. Degrading the Lebanese infrastructure and hitting urban areas with 2000 pound JDAMS will only increase the number of Hezbollah supporters and members.

    coolieno99 wrote:
    Also it is worth mentioning that today there are certain tarpaulines which can render a vehicle almost invisible to thermal sensors. A classic camouflage netting (closely resembling the surounding landscape) on top of that and it is also hard to spot visually. And if all that is in a valley even a JSTARS couldn't find it.
     
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  10. mobydog
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    mobydog New Member

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    Sure say it and it will happen.. easy..

    but still the range is about 22km, but Haifa is 35km away.
     
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