A reappraisal of China's semiconductor strategy

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by ZeEa5KPul, May 17, 2019.

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  1. Max Demian
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    Max Demian Junior Member
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    How would you know? Are you privy to the details of the trade negotiation? As of now Huawei is still free to purchase components and services from US companies. The US merely put a card on the table. Whether or not it gets played depends on what the other side will reveal.

    I wouldn't be so melodramatic about it.
     
  2. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    It is rich coming from the west and US how many war that China initiate in the last 40 years NONE. and How many war that US initiate in the same period. China never meddle in the domestic affair of other country She is still poor but she lend her hand by developing infrastructure for her neighboring country. What America did for poor Honduras or Here is what Jimmy carter said about the American war.
    The present conflict is not started by China It is because the new con blame their own shortcoming to China instead of forswearing war and use the money to developed their economy and taken care of the left behind by economy restructuring.

    China has faced much more daunted challenge before and they overcome the challenge and prosper . This present challenge is only small road bump in march to greatness
    The west has never stop trying to destabilized , role back or hamper China progress since 1949 literally.
    Now you said China should follow western model What happened to Arab spring that was praised in MS It turn into nightmare of war , Destruction of cities, religious fanaticism, refugee etc

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/04/19/jimmy-carter-us-most-warlike-nation-in-history-of-the-world/

    During his regular Sunday school lesson at Maranatha Baptist Church in his hometown of Plains, Georgia, Jimmy Carter revealed that he had recently spoken with President Donald Trump about China. Carter, 94, said Trump was worried about China’s growing economy and expressed concern that “China is getting ahead of us.”

    Carter, who normalized diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing in 1979, said he told Trump that much of China’s success was due to its peaceful foreign policy.

    “Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody?” Carter asked.
    “None, and we have stayed at war.” While it is true that China’s last major war — an invasion of Vietnam — occurred in 1979, its People’s Liberation Army pounded border regions of Vietnam with artillery and its navy battled its Vietnamese counterpart in the 1980s. Since then, however, China has been at peace with its neighbors and the world.

    Carter then said the US has been at peace for only 16 of its 242 years as a nation. Counting wars, military attacks and military occupations, there have actually only been five years of peace in US history — 1976, the last year of the Gerald Ford administration and 1977-80, the entirety of Carter’s presidency. Carter then referred to the US as “the most warlike nation in the history of the world,” a result, he said, of the US forcing other countries to “adopt our American principles.”

    China’s peace dividend has allowed and enhanced its economic growth, Carter said. “How many miles of high-speed railroad do we have in this country?” he asked. China has around 18,000 miles (29,000 km) of high speed rail lines while the US has “wasted, I think, $3 trillion” on military spending. According to a November 2018 study by Brown University’s Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs, the US has spent $5.9 trillion waging war in Iraq,
     
    #22 Hendrik_2000, May 18, 2019
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
  3. ZeEa5KPul
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    ZeEa5KPul Junior Member
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    Good thing China doesn't aim to be a respectable member of the global order. It aims to be the most powerful rule-setter in the global order; but respectability immediately follows, since whatever the powerful do is by definition respectable.

    Just the opposite. It means being as independent as humanly possible from others, especially hostile others.

    Why the scare quotes? What I give is a strategy - just because you don't like it doesn't make it something else.

    The United States has decided that China is its enemy, great damage is going to be done no matter what. The strategy I proposed minimizes the harm to China and maximizes the harm inflicted on its opponents.

    "Opening up" and "closing down" are just empty phrases, meaningless rhetoric. Contrary to what some Westerners think, "Dengism" is not a religion in China. Deng just implemented a strategy that was optimal for its time and place. We are no longer in that time or place, and pursuing his strategy mindlessly can lead to profoundly suboptimal outcomes.

    If there's a psychopath with a history of murderous violence carrying a knife and coming towards me, I don't need to know every single detail of what's going on in his mind before I take steps to defend myself.

    The US should not have that card to put on the table, and if my plan is followed it soon won't. In fact, there should not even be any table for the US to play cards with China on. The US should be put in a box where it can play with itself.
     
  4. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    A defiant Huawei good for them
    Echoing his tougher tone in recent months, Ren also said his company will not be dictated to by Washington. "We will not change our management at the request of the U.S. or accept monitoring, as ZTE has done," he said.
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Tra...-export-ban-and-vows-to-continue-chip-efforts
    Huawei CEO hits out at US export ban and vows to continue chip efforts
    Chinese telecom equipment giant says it has broken no law and will resist Washington pressure

    ATSUSHI NAKAYAMA, Nikkei commentatorMAY 18, 2019 22:05 JST
    [​IMG]
    Huawei Technologies CEO Ren Zhengfei says Huawei would be "fine" even if Qualcomm and other American suppliers would not sell chips to Huawei, because "we have already been preparing for this."
    SHENZHEN -- Huawei Technologies' founder and chief executive blasted the Trump administration's decision to add his company to a government blacklist, insisting the Chinese telecom equipment maker has done nothing illegal.

    "We have not done anything which violates the law," CEO Ren Zhengfei told Japanese media at company headquarters in Shenzhen on Saturday in his first interview since the U.S. decision to restrict trade with the Huawei.

    Ren also indicated that his company will continue developing its own chips to lessen the impact of the ban on its production. Ren said it would be "fine" even if Qualcomm and other American suppliers would not sell chips to Huawei. "We have already been preparing for this," he said.


    Huawei unit HiSilicon Technologies, which mainly designs core processor chips, has made similar allusions to plans for dealing with a potential disruption in supply. In a recent open letter, President Teresa He Tingbo wrote, "We actually have foreseen this day for many years, and we do have a backup plan."

    Ren also said the impact of the U.S. ban on Huawei's business will be limited, and expressed confidence in its longer-term outlook. "It is expected that Huawei's growth may slow, but only slightly."

    Echoing his tougher tone in recent months, Ren also said his company will not be dictated to by Washington. "We will not change our management at the request of the U.S. or accept monitoring, as ZTE has done," he said.

    The U.S. deployed a similar ban against ZTE last year, pushing the Chinese telecom company to the brink of bankruptcy.
     
  5. Max Demian
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    Max Demian Junior Member
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    You presume too much. How would you know what China's policy is? What you wrote is in fact precisely what China repeatedly said it's not aiming for. Are you calling the Chinese leadership hypocrites?

    False. United States decided no such thing. We have merely entered into the competitor stage of the relationship.
     
  6. ZeEa5KPul
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    ZeEa5KPul Junior Member
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    I feel a profound admiration for Mr. Ren. The man is bearing a crushing burden: his daughter has been abducted and the company he dedicated his life to is in existential peril. But despite it all, he stands tall and unbowed.

    Let his character be an example to all Chinese. He has in abundance that which will serve China in this war far better than its economic might or industrial policy or technological capacity: nerves of steel.
     
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  7. zealotaiur485
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    zealotaiur485 New Member
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    Building a world class semiconductors industry has always been one of China's major goals. However, breaking into that industry is quite difficult. It requires a significant amount of $$$, thousands of skilled engineers, IP, and decades of hard work. China has been trying since the 1990s. Back then the country was mainly focused on getting people out of poverty and didn't allocate enough funds towards the semiconductors sector. Also, I do agreed that the CPC was a bit naive and got caught off guard by the USA's self destructive trade war. They didn't really anticipate that the USA would literally hurt their own business just to get at China.

    Now the lesson has been learned. Time to invest in our own industries instead of relying on others..
     
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  8. reservior dogs
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    reservior dogs New Member
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    From what I have been reading, they are working on all this as you suggested. Here is an example of them making lithography machines for 22 nm http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201811/30/WS5c00e3d4a310eff30328c17f.html

    Trumped backed off from ZTE because this is also a nuclear option for the U.S. Once this is used, the Chinese having their own production, there will be a fierce competitor in the horizon. Give them a few years, I think step by step, this choke hold will be disarmed in due course time. In the mean time, they will have to negotiate their way out of this. While the U.S. is powerful, the Chinese have a lot of cards to play as spoilers against U.S. foreign policy. They have not played them, but I suspect these cards are used behind the scene.

    @ZeEa5KPul, I read your write up about the Chinese grand strategy and am a fan. When will you complete the remainder of the write up?
     
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  9. Max Demian
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    Max Demian Junior Member
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    Not a trivial gap to close. Chinese semicon manufacturing companies estimated to be 5-10 years behind: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...WMAF6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw1TnELZUTrwvghsGBcKEIDf

    Fighting a war with no guns: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiEvdeaiqbiAhURL1AKHSK1BmEQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https://www.ft.com/content/4a8553a6-f3b2-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d&psig=AOvVaw3PeOyWAq8Z6dOXsp_HvqK6&ust=1558303275314213

    I would like to learn more about China's new photolithography stepper/scanner, but can't seem to find anything but most superficial information. Seems it's still in research and development stage.
     
    #29 Max Demian, May 18, 2019
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
  10. ZeEa5KPul
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    ZeEa5KPul Junior Member
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    This is actually a great example of the disadvantage the global IP system places China in. Here's a more detailed article about the same machine: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201811/30/WS5c006df2a310eff30328be90.html. This is especially interesting

    Having to utilize a new and probably inferior physical principle just to sidestep ASML's patents is outrageous. Invalidating ASML's patents on this technology will allow China to much more efficiently produce world-class photolithography machines and address its semiconductor shortcomings. Doing this in ordinary circumstances is untenable, but this war with the US provides excellent cover for China to cast off the chains of the international IP system.

    Thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed the essay. I have no current plans to continue it, unfortunately.
     
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