A reappraisal of China's semiconductor strategy

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by ZeEa5KPul, May 17, 2019.

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  1. Totoro
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    Totoro Captain
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    Military action against anyone would be absolutely the wrong move for China. Something like that would play right into US hand, as it'd turn pretty much everyone against China.

    If China wants to pressure Taiwan, it may try to do so economically. Taiwanese exports to China and Hong Kong make up something like 40% of their total exports. Blocking that overnight would hurt China but would hurt Taiwan much, much more.
     
  2. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    For now Huawei is safe but they better hurry up their own design because at the end of next year they wont have any stock left
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/huawei-has-inventory-to-weather-us-blacklist-for-months-analyst.html
    Huawei has enough inventory to ‘weather’ US blacklist for months: Analyst
    PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 24 2019 1:56 AM EDT

    Weizhen Tan@WEIZENT

    KEY POINTS
    • Chinese technology giant Huawei has enough inventory to sustain its smartphone and 5G networking equipment business for most of the rest of the year, investment group CLSA predicts.
    • Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon, which designs chips for Huawei equipment, has been increasing its capability in the last few years, and is able to supply 80% to 90% of Huawei’s needs, according to Sebastian Hou, investment analyst at CLSA.
    • But Huawei’s survival is ultimately dependent on Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC, CLSA said.
    [​IMG]
    A worker packs up new smartphone devices at the end of the production line at Huawei’s production campus on April 11, 2019 in Dongguan, China.
    Kevin Frayer | Getty Images
    Chinese technology giant Huawei has enough inventory to sustain its smartphone and 5G networking equipment businesses for most of the rest of the year, according to brokerage and investment firm CLSA.

    Amid elevated U.S.-China trade tensions, Washington last week added Huawei to a blacklist that curbs its ability to do business with American firms. That restriction was partially eased days later, in an effort to minimize disruption for the Chinese telecommunications giant’s partners, but most experts warn the company now faces significant uncertainty.

    For now, Huawei’s smartphone business has five to six months’ worth of inventory, and its 5G networking equipment business has nine to 12 months’ worth of supplies, going by CLSA estimates, Sebastian Hou, investment analyst at CLSA, told CNBC on Friday.

    “For the rest of the year, I think the company should be fine on smartphones and networking equipment,” he said. “In the short term, they still have enough inventory to weather through this period, but the inventory will be used up eventually. So how these trade talks will progress in the next few months is still pretty critical to (its) future survival.”

    Notably, Hou said that Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon, which designs chips for Huawei equipment, has been increasing its capability in the last few years and is able to supply 80% to 90% of Huawei’s needs.

    In fact, HiSilicon’s capabilities are “stronger than most may know,” said a CLSA research report from Hou and others dated May 20.

    Ultimately, Huawei’s survival is highly dependent on whether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — the world’s largest contract chipmaker — can keep doing business with it. In fact, TSMC is “crucial” to Huawei, that report said.

    “No matter how great HiSilicon’s chip designs are, it cannot live without TSMC, as TSMC manufactures all HiSilicon’s advanced chips. This means TSMC is critical to Huawei’s survival and Trump’s plan to block Huawei and China.”

    For now, TSMC has said that its shipments to Huawei are not affected by the U.S. action to curb the Chinese firm’s access to American technology.
     
  3. vincent
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    vincent Senior Member

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    Another case of reporter have no freaking clue what he's talking about

    Only the phone's SOC's need the most advance tech from TSMC. Vast majority of chips are still on older nodes which other companies in China are capable of manufacturing
     
    zealotaiur485, KIENCHIN and N00813 like this.
  4. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    You can't just move chip fabrication from one plant to another just like that. Each manufacturer has its own process, to switch fabrication to a different plant requires a chip redesign which can easily take 18 months to do. A couple years back people also claimed Apple would easily dump Samsung for TSMC, for Apple SoC fabrication, as if it was that easy, Apple only did that two chip generations later, i.e. nearly 4 years afterwards.

    Also AFAIK Huawei uses advanced TSMC fabrication nodes on more than just the smartphone SoCs. They even use them in 5G modems and server processors.

    I think Huawei should start a program to manufacture at least some of their older generation chips at SMIC as a backup.
     
  5. localizer
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    localizer Junior Member
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    Question is, does the US have the balls to risk a WWIII?
     
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  6. nugroho
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    nugroho Junior Member

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  7. Jura
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    Jura General

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    now I read
    China’s biggest chip maker, SMIC, to withdraw from New York Stock Exchange as trade spat with US spills over to technology sector
    • The sudden move comes as Washington steps up efforts to cut off US technology from China
    Updated: 11:46pm, 24 May, 2019 https://www.scmp.com/business/artic...c-withdraw-new-york-stock-exchange-trade-spat
     
  8. Peter2018
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    Peter2018 Junior Member
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    This is the right move, as some US bullies have been suggesting that Chinese companies should be cutoff from IPO listings in the US capital markets. Chinese companies, especially technology companies, should now consider only listing in Hong Kong. The next step for semiconductor industry is to move towards quantum computing.
     
  9. zealotaiur485
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    zealotaiur485 New Member
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    Shanghai is setting up their own stock exchange specifically for tech companies. SMIC and other companies should list it here:

    https://www.scmp.com/business/china...pproves-ipo-applications-nine-pioneers-nasdaq
     
  10. Max Demian
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    Max Demian Junior Member
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    Stop trolling.
     
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