A New Cold War?

All I see is a lot of what's on paper. That's a part of a Cold War to psychologically mess with people's minds. Yes the US has more of everything... but it doesn't mean they'll win. I see a lot of people try to analyze the Korean War. Why? They try to spin the human wave tactic of the Chinese as if it was unfair or it didn't count. Yeah because it worked. If you go by paper, it shouldn't have worked but it did.

Peter Navarro wrote on paper that China wouldn't dare retaliate against US tariffs and Trump thought that's what was suppose to happen and China would fold immediately. Now Trump is furiously angry because China isn't bending that he's threatening a new round of tariffs before his old tariffs were to increase at the new year. I've come across several men who outright say if they demand sex from an Asian women and she doesn't give it, they're victims of racism. Damn an Asian woman's individual rights are being violated. They think it's their right to have sex with Asian women upon command because that's what they been taught that's what Asian women do so to them they're the victim if they don't give them sex upon command. Hollywood has the same mentality where they think it's their right to make money from China even though Hollywood movies are shown in vastly more in China than the other way around. They think they're the victim.

In this game of chicken Trump has already veered away. Like I've said before, if the US doesn't need China, they why not end trade completely instead of dancing with tariffs. So-called balancing out trade is not the goal or the US could easily figure how much they think it would take to do it and implement it immediately. I read a headline today that Trump expects a great deal from China. Does that mean great for China also or just for the US? All the US's allies that bent the knee to Trump, all I see is they've given into Trump's demands and they've gotten nothing but maintaining good relations with the US.

I don't know why people bring up nukes for something about a Cold War. Do I have to bring up how Trump was too afraid of North Korea with a few nukes and he couldn't get any US allies to go along. He had to demand China do something about it. A North Korea type China would be even more menacing and threatening to the region. So how is China going to be easier? The US is going to need lots of money to buy off allies. Yeah this Cold War the US will be playing the Soviet role where they're going bankrupt themselves trying to counter China. How many countries are going sacrifice themselves for Trump...? Vietnam is probably one of the most rabidly anti-China countries in the region. I bet they know they're not going to get involved. Just take a look at Obama's Pivot to Asia where the US expected its Asian allies to do all the dirty work to China while they expected the US to do all the dirty work. And somehow they're going to think Trump will get it done? If they're so blindly loyal to the US, why hasn't it already happened? Which one is more believable? China's neighbors have drunk the Kool-Aid and will follow the US blindly into any war of America's whims or do they just want to see the two biggest dogs on the block go at each so they don't have to sacrifice anything while getting what they want for nothing?

AndrewS said:

The situation is much more complicated than you describe

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It is this simple.

Any more complicated description require more than expectable skills/capabilities from the decision makers.

tidalwave said:

What do you call allowing navy commander on the ship to make decision to open fire, bypassing high command up?
For average Chinese person, what other sector in China economy is bigger than real estate when 80% of their wealth is putting in real estate?

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US navy commanders making their own decisions on starting a war, is simply not happening.

The rest of the Chinese economy is bigger than the real estate sector in China.

gelgoog said:

The real estate market in China is kinda bonkers and has been so for quite several years now. The fact that local governments earn money each time a property is built up means they couldn't care less about building inspections and any habitation buildings typically don't last very long because the constructors want to make as much profit as possible. Then things like condominiums don't operate that well in China, people don't want to fork out for maintenance that is outside of their own houses. After a couple of years staircases and elevators start malfunctioning and no one wants to pony up. Property prices were also outside of the reach of the middle class citizens in China. So I would say this is just a correction.

China's major issues with their nukes are: not enough conversion from antique missile systems to more modern solid missile systems like the DF-41 and the lack of a credible SSBN force. This might make China seem vulnerable on a first strike scenario to some military planners. But I don't see a massive first strike scenario happening to China.

The Cold War right now is happening mostly on the economic sphere with the Belt and Road Initiative and the new USA led initiative to invest in Africa. People today often forget that before the foundation of the Warsaw Pact and NATO there was the creation of COMECON and the Marshall Plan. We also see the Chinese make all these sorts of bilateral yuan deals with several countries the most recent of which was with Japan. This kind of mirrors the creation of the Bretton Woods system in my opinion.

I expect the USA to continue to try to build a containment policy for China economically and militarily by making attempts to unite the countries which surround China. At the same time they are trying to economically compete with the Chinese in Africa. Much like what they did with the Muslim countries, or during the Cold War, they might also try to foment coups against countries with either pro-Russian or pro-Chinese governments. In the Cold War the USA and the USSR competed to carve out ex-European colonial possessions. But today the USA is the hegemonic power. So I expect the USA to lose power in the fringes of its current empire in places like Afghanistan and maybe even in the Middle East in general. This will be due to two reasons IMHO: i) North America will be mostly independent in terms of oil production ii) China is the world's largest oil importer nation. So I think the power balance in the Middle East will eventually swing towards China. Right now the USA attempts to hold on to the region because otherwise it would mean the end of the petrodollar and the start of massive inflation in the USA. But I think they will bankrupt themselves in the process of paying for their hegemonic outreach and will lack the capability to even maintain their current naval power. If that happens then the USA might retrench into its more traditional role of basically dominating the Americas. Venezuela has large petroleum reserves and the USA and Canada have the technology to extract it. So in that context if they want a buffer Venezuela might be more important to them in the long run than the Middle East IMHO.

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Generally agree.

Although I don't see the US retrenching to just the Americas. The Americas are secure, so they will always have spare resources to divert to Europe and Asia.

But the US won't have military or economic primacy in the Western Pacific, like they had before.

AndrewS said:

Generally agree.

Although I don't see the US retrenching to just the Americas. The Americas are secure, so they will always have spare resources to divert to Europe and Asia.

But the US won't have military or economic primacy in the Western Pacific, like they had before.

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That is the big deal.
That area contain the best part of mankind, and all area easy to access from sea.

Additionally, the US has lot of coastal areas , so in the minute when the USA lost its ability to "contain" Russia/China he will face enemy ships around his shorelines.

That means at the moment the USA using its military as investment , and China / Russia as expense.

When the US loose its control above the asian theatre the US military become a burden, not an investment.

Anlsvrthng said:

That is the big deal.
That area contain the best part of mankind, and all area easy to access from sea.

Additionally, the US has lot of coastal areas , so in the minute when the USA lost its ability to "contain" Russia/China he will face enemy ships around his shorelines.

That means at the moment the USA using its military as investment , and China / Russia as expense.

When the US loose its control above the asian theatre the US military become a burden, not an investment.

Click to expand...

Indeed...! The U.S Military's unsustainable adventurism and expansionism has got to reach a tipping point sometime, I think we see some faint signs of that happening. There has to come a time for drastic Military cut-down both in terms of Personnel and Hardware, unless there is another major conventional war. The U.S hawks would have a hard time selling a conventional war against the People's Republic of China to the American populace (whose demographics are becoming more diverse every year), within the next decade, especially since they have only recently started retreating from Afghanistan and Iraq after more than a Decade. A decade later, considering the current trajectory and incredible build-up of the Chinese Military in every sphere, of which I can still hardly believe (how far they've come since the Beijing Olympics in 2008), it will be 100% guaranteed that the U.S will lose a war in the South China Sea in 2028.

So it looks like there are 2 most probable scenarios:

1) The U.S in a moment of madness and greed of holding onto power, lashes out and creates World War 3 and the whole of Mankind loses,

2) or the U.S has to absorb all those thousands of soldiers into Civilian life, and also absorb loss of the MIC into the Economy, which is bound to create an enormous strain on the U.S economic and Civil life. Most probably resulting in rise of Crime, lower Economic output, drop in quality of Life and Per Capita Income, loss of immigration or Brain-drain to the U.S, resulting in loss of Technological edge decades down the line etc.

It is surprising to see the current events in the U.S, with the Trump Administration creating an environment of hostility for would-be immigrants. They seem to forget that the greatest asset that the U.S has had in its history is the Brain- drain from Europe, Asia and other parts of the World to the U.S. The more hostile and non-conducive the environment, the greater the loss will be for the U.S. As Dr. Michio Kaku once put it, "The secret and greatest weapon that the U.S has is the H1B Visa....!"

It would be best for the U.S to share the World stage with another Superpower, whether they like it or not, and compete fairly in terms of Economic,Technological and Industrial output, rather than resorting to warfare ( which seems to be the only thing the U.S love to do recently).

Anlsvrthng said:

That is the big deal.
That area contain the best part of mankind, and all area easy to access from sea.

Additionally, the US has lot of coastal areas , so in the minute when the USA lost its ability to "contain" Russia/China he will face enemy ships around his shorelines.

That means at the moment the USA using its military as investment , and China / Russia as expense.

When the US loose its control above the asian theatre the US military become a burden, not an investment.

Click to expand...

You need to get a better read on the situation.

Russia is struggling to maintain its existing influence on its border with Europe, and in the Caucasus.
Note that the USA now has Air Force units deployed to Lviv in Ukraine, and Army units to Georgia.
And the Russia's population and economy is so much smaller than the European Union. Then you've got the USA which has an economy which is also the same size as the European Union.

There is absolutely no way that Russia has the spare resources for an expeditionary navy operating in the Atlantic Ocean, given the challenges it faces on its land borders.

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In the Pacific Ocean, Chinese navy ships would have to cross the entire Pacific Ocean to reach California on the continental US.
And they would have to neutralise Guam first and then also Hawaii.
Even then, the Chinese Navy would be operating at the end of a very long and vulnerable logistics chain spanning the entire Pacific Ocean.

Yodello said:

Indeed...! The U.S Military's unsustainable adventurism and expansionism has got to reach a tipping point sometime, I think we see some faint signs of that happening. There has to come a time for drastic Military cut-down both in terms of Personnel and Hardware, unless there is another major conventional war. The U.S hawks would have a hard time selling a conventional war against the People's Republic of China to the American populace (whose demographics are becoming more diverse every year), within the next decade, especially since they have only recently started retreating from Afghanistan and Iraq after more than a Decade. A decade later, considering the current trajectory and incredible build-up of the Chinese Military in every sphere, of which I can still hardly believe (how far they've come since the Beijing Olympics in 2008), it will be 100% guaranteed that the U.S will lose a war in the South China Sea in 2028.

So it looks like there are 2 most probable scenarios:

1) The U.S in a moment of madness and greed of holding onto power, lashes out and creates World War 3 and the whole of Mankind loses,

2) or the U.S has to absorb all those thousands of soldiers into Civilian life, and also absorb loss of the MIC into the Economy, which is bound to create an enormous strain on the U.S economic and Civil life. Most probably resulting in rise of Crime, lower Economic output, drop in quality of Life and Per Capita Income, loss of immigration or Brain-drain to the U.S, resulting in loss of Technological edge decades down the line etc.

It is surprising to see the current events in the U.S, with the Trump Administration creating an environment of hostility for would-be immigrants. They seem to forget that the greatest asset that the U.S has had in its history is the Brain- drain from Europe, Asia and other parts of the World to the U.S. The more hostile and non-conducive the environment, the greater the loss will be for the U.S. As Dr. Michio Kaku once put it, "The secret and greatest weapon that the U.S has is the H1B Visa....!"

It would be best for the U.S to share the World stage with another Superpower, whether they like it or not, and compete fairly in terms of Economic,Technological and Industrial output, rather than resorting to warfare ( which seems to be the only thing the U.S love to do recently).

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Please stop being overly dramatic with silly scenarios.

The US is simply facing an "imperial overstretch" problem.

All those allies and commitments were made when the US was military and economic hegemon.
But everyone else in the world has been catching up in terms of wealth and the military, so the USA cannot honour all those committments now.
The rationale thing to do is to start shedding some of those commitments to focus on the ones that really matter. Not to abandon everything, because that is simply not going to happen.

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The US economy absorbing excess soldiers in a hypothetical drawdown is simply not an issue, despite what you think. Please look at the data.

AssassinsMace said:

In this game of chicken Trump has already veered away. Like I've said before, if the US doesn't need China, they why not end trade completely instead of dancing with tariffs. So-called balancing out trade is not the goal or the US could easily figure how much they think it would take to do it and implement it immediately. I read a headline today that Trump expects a great deal from China. Does that mean great for China also or just for the US? All the US's allies that bent the knee to Trump, all I see is they've given into Trump's demands and they've gotten nothing but maintaining good relations with the US.

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Too true. The reality is the whole narrative of USA doesn't need China and China is a leech sucking the rich blood of fine hard working Americans, is a load of Republican excrement (Trump=GOP to simplify and hopefully not offend any Republicans). The reality is that line is just for PR purposes and used by a demagogue. Democracy's only and greatest failure is putting political power into the hands of the majority. It's pretty much what it fundamentally is but Trump being elected and his policies allowed to be put into practice should have proven that the whole western system is fraught with pitfalls and eventually one will walk right into one and end up going backwards.

Let's not forget that the West was made great NOT because of democracy, rather by the consequences of the enlightenment which can partly be attributed to The Plague. Not to mention murdering competition, taking most of the world's wealth, land, and exploiting humans even enslaving them... but that's being mean to the old westerners... how else can they succeed? LOL as soon as modern western nations like USA is established with relatively fair treatment and rights in the last few decades, Asians are thriving right to the top. It's too easy when the playing field is even remotely unbiased. So murder and violence must be used once again. It's self-evident that the real "Ubermensch" are not the ones who came up with such pathetic theories (Hitler's not Nietzsche's).

So they have to use lies and propaganda to prop up the whole shitshow. They know their fortunes are intimately linked with China's but Trump's either a Chinese mole trying to ruin the US by fracturing it from within or he's actually convinced doing this surgically can restart American manufacturing of cheap, low tech, mass produced consumer goods. Which is an insanely stupid thing to want at this stage for the US but maybe they fear competition in the high end will end up with China or elsewhere eventually prevailing. US manufacturing exists and is basically exactly where it should be and what they manufacture is also commensurate with their position technologically and economically. Their trade deficit with China (like their deficit with multiple other countries) is also about where it should be and aligns with the rest of the world re China. It is also a small fraction of their economic productivity so honestly the whole fuss is over small problems he's made into some giant mountain but it plays well into the dumbass subset of American population which is unfortunately close to a majority. The intolerance for non-whites and/or Chinese, exceed their ability to think critically. Therefore the mechanism promotes a demagogue into power and the system fractures as it should. Nature is never without balance, poetic justice, and irony. If it is also fair, time will be cruel to the dimwits and bigots.

If his true desire is uniquely and exclusively about economy wide alleged technology theft (unproven as of today) and about forced cooperation (indeed true and asymmetric but the US can take the deal or piss off to greener pastures because they get PLENTY of benefits from the existing setup which they never talk about), Trump doesn't need these tariffs. His theory is these tariffs allow for negotiation room on Chinese state endorsed/enforced business practices so the two above contention points can be settled. Except in their finite wisdom, these halfwits have decided that disturbing the natural equilibrium against China will bring them to the discussion table so that China can take another hit. That's not how natural laws work, nor is it how trade works. If you ask me to give up something desirable, you need to make it worth my while. If you take some goods from my shop, you give me money. You don't take the goods and then expect me to pay you. So essentially none of Trump's overt policies line up or make any sense to someone with half a functioning brain. Therefore there is something sinister in the works that still eludes us. Or Trump's just a Chinese/Russian agent destroying the last good qualities of the USA.

AndrewS said:

You need to get a better read on the situation.

Russia is struggling to maintain its existing influence on its border with Europe, and in the Caucasus.
Note that the USA now has Air Force units deployed to Lviv in Ukraine, and Army units to Georgia.
And the Russia's population and economy is so much smaller than the European Union. Then you've got the USA which has an economy which is also the same size as the European Union.

There is absolutely no way that Russia has the spare resources for an expeditionary navy operating in the Atlantic Ocean, given the challenges it faces on its land borders.

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Y
In the Pacific Ocean, Chinese navy ships would have to cross the entire Pacific Ocean to reach California on the continental US.
And they would have to neutralise Guam first and then also Hawaii.
Even then, the Chinese Navy would be operating at the end of a very long and vulnerable logistics chain spanning the entire Pacific Ocean.

Click to expand...

You seriously misread the strategic situation in Europe.

Ukraine and Georgia loosing , Crime is in Russian hand now, means they are inferior situation compared to even 2013.
Both of them "anti Russian" since 1990, and now its biting them badly.

They try to involve the USA into they loosing game. The USA happy to bribe those oligarchs over there to give same support for the dying imperium, but that getting to the end.

And generally Europe sharing small common interest with the US, and as soon as the USA can't deliver the full economical control above Asian into the Europe-USA partnership the whole temporarily alliance loose its value .

Compare the situation NOW with the situation in 2007. Bit different in Europe, in every aspect.

And we haven't taken into account the melting down of Arctic.
That creating similar opportunities for Russia like the ones opened by the Panama channel for USA.