2020: JMSDF & PLAN Surface Combatant strength

luhai said:

So 3 Osumi Class + 2 Hyuga Class+ 2 Kaga class + 8 26DDH = 15 Pocket carriers in the not too distant future.

Assume IJN.... JMSDF keep up with escort numbers as well, that is one big navy. Can Japan's economy afford it, assume they keep the welfare state.

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I'll be honest I wouldn't be too surprised if that is the case, those 8 26DDH could lift 12 x F35B each which means 96 aircraft

A 26DDH cost $1.5 billion a pop building 8 would reduce the unit cost and takes 3 years to build give two shipyards the contract and within 5-10 years you have that kind of force

But this is the trend in the region, Aussies have 2 LHD in the pipeline, South Korea has one and could build 3 more and Russia has two Mistral Class for the Pacific with options for two more

All in all the region can see upwards of 18 flat tops not to mention the big boys in the game China and India with full blown carriers and LHD programmes of thier own

You can bet the Pacific region and Asia will become very very busy pretty quickly

I'll take this 26DDH seriously once Japan commits to a larger force of F-35s... At the moment they're only looking for 42, with little indication they intend for more (I think they intend their ATDX to be their next generation mainstay fighter)

Bltizo said:

I'll take this 26DDH seriously once Japan commits to a larger force of F-35s... At the moment they're only looking for 42, with little indication they intend for more (I think they intend their ATDX to be their next generation mainstay fighter)

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42 would give them enough for three of their 12 aircraft squadrons for three of these carriers. In any case, for those three carriers and the F-35Bs, that would be a number of years away at the best.

I will believe the 26DDH will be a reality as soon as I see it listed on one of their annual funding reports as a funded line item. At that point, they will most probably build them, and they will then allocate the F-35s accordingly. Heck, with an eight aircraft air wing of F-35Bs, they could outfit five of them.

I believe the purchase of 42 F-35s are for the A version, not the B version...

Bltizo said:

I believe the purchase of 42 F-35s are for the A version, not the B version...

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That is correct. Japan has only budgeted for 42 F-35A's with the expectation that they will come into service early 2020's. However the timing / numbers continue to be evaluated by Japan due to the deflationary measures being taken on the economic side of things.

I'm not sure where the idea came from that Japan would be operating JSF in any number off of their recent Helicopter 'Destroyer' designs. Capability to do so is in question but more to the point no F-35B's are on order. If that were to change in the relative near-term, we would not see operational F-35B's in Japan until end of the next decade best case.



Cheers,
Zool

Bltizo said:

I believe the purchase of 42 F-35s are for the A version, not the B version...

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You are correct...and that makes the 26DDH reality less likely for sure...unless the JMSDF purchases some F-35Bs. Or, in the longer term, builds their own VSTOL aircraft which the Japanese are capable of doing IMHO.

Still, I do not discount the possibility. It's just that right now, the F-35B is the only game in town and this "proposal" calls out specifically F-35Bs. The Institute for the Ministry of Defense does not make such proposals in a vacuum...they surely took this into consideration.

Still, without F-35Bs already in the queue it is not likely that there would be a 2015-2016 funding for construction either in 2016 or 2017.

Zool said:

I'm not sure where the idea came from that Japan would be operating JSF in any number off of their recent Helicopter 'Destroyer' designs. Capability to do so is in question but more to the point no F-35B's are on order. If that were to change in the relative near-term, we would not see operational F-35B's in Japan until end of the next decade best case.

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It has come about as a result of a proposal fopr the 26DDH carriers which are billed as principally air defense vessels with F-35s, V-22s, and Seahawks. They are not the Hyuga (16DDH) or Kaga (22DDH) class, but a new class.

But without STOVL aircraft, it's a no-go until those are funded too.

Jeff Head said:

You are correct...and that makes the 26DDH reality less likely for sure...unless the JMSDF purchases some F-35Bs. Or, in the longer term, builds their own VSTOL aircraft which the Japanese are capable of doing IMHO.

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I sincerely doubt that.
The possibility that the Japanese will purchase F-35Bs is small, the possibility of a Japanese VSTOL fighter with near F-35B capabilities is a pie in the sky -- not even because they can't develop such an aircraft, but because it would be actually easier to just buy off the shelf F-35Bs.

Still, I do not discount the possibility. It's just that right now, the F-35B is the only game in town and this "proposal" calls out specifically F-35Bs. The Institute for the Ministry of Defense does not make such proposals in a vacuum...they surely took this into consideration.

Still, without F-35Bs already in the queue it is not likely that there would be a 2015-2016 funding for construction either in 2016 or 2017.

It has come about as a result of a proposal fopr the 26DDH carriers which are billed as principally air defense vessels with F-35s, V-22s, and Seahawks. They are not the Hyuga (16DDH) or Kaga (22DDH) class, but a new class.

But without STOVL aircraft, it's a no-go until those are funded too.

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Agreed, I too am not ruling this "26DDH" out for the near future -- I was very surprised a few years ago when 22DDH became a legitimate project, and now it's on the verge of being launched.

If 26DDH does become reality though, the Japanese will have their hands full funding the purchase of F-35Bs, and also the development costs for a V-22 based AEW (if they want it). That's a lot of moolah, and I wonder if they can quite afford it.

Here's a seemingly decent rundown/fan guesswork/projection of Japanese and Chinese fleets in 2020.

The bit about capabilities of each class is more guesswork than the rest, but it seems roughly precise, give or take a grade.

Japanese fleet also seems to have a lot of guesswork concerning new classes until 2020. It may seem a bit overstated, but tonnage wise its really the same pace of new ships that japanese fleet introduced in the last 7 or so years. Then again, with chinese build up, 15 japanese ships in 2010-2020 period doesn't seem too much, they introduced similar numbers in 1990s and 2000s.

Thanks for sharing, but i can' t read, too small.

Sorry, let me try again.