ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

I don't think anyone here actually has any knowledge of who actually ISIS is and who they represent too many of you are giving personal opinions let's look at some facts

One of the most things about ISIS you need to understand is that it's main members are made up of ex Iraqi army generals and soldiers who have fought Americans for 10 years in urban warfare

In addition the past and current Iraqi governments made up of Shias have alienated the rest of the Sunni population and many Sunni tribal leaders even although they know ISIS is wrong still join ISIS because there is no alternative or the alternative is even worse than ISIS

Sunni leaders in Iraq fear a Shia dominated country because naturally a Shia dominated Iraq will no doubt marginalise vast majority of Sunnis as under Saddam for 3 decades the Shia were marginalised these divisions run deep between family's and tribes and there's no way out

And I can tell you one thing for sure, if the Malaki government had engaged the Sunni elder tribes in Iraq and had included them in the government ISIS would never have enjoyed the support it got from many city's and towns

The situation now is that the ISIS can rely and draw on a lot of Sunnis from the region for support and no aerial bombing is going to change that

To defeat ISIS you need a democratically elected Iraqi government which has representatives from all regions of the country inside the parliament who have equal say, this should be monitored by international observers and must include all Sunni provinces too and oil an gas share must be equally divided

delft said:

I just listened on my favourite radio station to a Dutch speaking Jordanian free lance journalist student of IS matters who said that few Jordanians are in favour of IS but that they generally still have more respect for IS than for US and that they are opposed to Jordan taking part in the US led coalition.

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More hearsay, delft, and it is clearly pushing an agenda against the US led coalition.

Jordan is actively fighting with the US in the fight against ISIS. That is their official position and that is what their military actions reflect.

In today's modern culture, you can find anyone to say almost anything in almost every country on earth. But what Jordan is actually doing speaks far louder than what a "Dutch speaking Jordanian free lance journalist student" thinks about it and his "feelings" about a few people he has talked to..

Oh dear here comes Clint Eastwood!

Question I have is the Jordanian F16 came down over Raqqa which is deep is hide Syria why was the pilot flying so deep behind enemy lines on his own? Where was his wingman? He should have gave the position to a search and rescue team to fly in and pick the pilot up while his wingman flew cover for his downed colleague

To me it looks like Jordan Air Force was not prepared for such a event and when the pilot went down they did not respond in time to rescue him

At all time there should be 2 helos on stand by ready for a search and rescue mission when a aircraft goes down

Now they might have had a set of helos for such a role but by the looks of it they have been caught off guard which is a shame for the poor pilot

UAE Air Force has been scared to death and have pulled out of the ISIS mission the Gulf country's are really not up to this job



With the best aircraft in the middleast looks like UAE can't afford to loose a pilot

Isis is saying that Jordanian air strike has killed American aid worker!?

No proof given as of yet

asif iqbal said:

Isis is saying that Jordanian air strike has killed American aid worker!?

No proof given as of yet

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And even if the American is deceased...we will never know if it really occurred as a result of the strike.

I believe this terror strategy that ISIS is resorting to is going to backfire very badly. The resolve and commitment of those fighting them will be steeled and there will be no terms or negotiations...just abject defeat.

asif iqbal said:

Question I have is the Jordanian F16 came down over Raqqa which is deep is hide Syria why was the pilot flying so deep behind enemy lines on his own? Where was his wingman? He should have gave the position to a search and rescue team to fly in and pick the pilot up while his wingman flew cover for his downed colleague

To me it looks like Jordan Air Force was not prepared for such a event and when the pilot went down they did not respond in time to rescue him

At all time there should be 2 helos on stand by ready for a search and rescue mission when a aircraft goes down

Now they might have had a set of helos for such a role but by the looks of it they have been caught off guard which is a shame for the poor pilot

UAE Air Force has been scared to death and have pulled out of the ISIS mission the Gulf country's are really not up to this job

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With the best aircraft in the middleast looks like UAE can't afford to loose a pilot

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I guess it's a bit more difficult than that. First, Rakka seems to be some 250+NM from any part of jordanian territory. That's over 500NM of total flight distance plus 10 or so minutes station time for the pick-up. If all goes well the first time. Quick look on wiki sais Blackhawks are the most usefull helicopters the jordanians have. Even with exta tanks the distance involved is beyond the max unrefueld range of those helos. I'm not aware of any air refueling capability in the royal jordanian air force or on their helos.
So one could possibly say it's a tough decision to fly operations outside of the CSAR ring. I don't know how much, if at all, the jordanians are integrated in the international scheme of operations and if as such at least their fighters have access to coalition tankers. If those are on station at all.
I'm sure there was a second aircraft in that flight and he reported the incedent. His fuel state will obviously dictate his remaining time on station. Jordanian helos would have had to go to / above their max range across foreign teritorry with possibly considerable defenses and potentially / likely hostile operators.
Such a mission, if at all, could have only happend during night. With the flight times involved, that would have meant a mission start in the late evening. So if the incident was around mid-night, they would have needed to wait at least until the next day. I don't know how fast the guy was captured. So all together I really wouldn't put that much blame on the jordanian planners here. It's one of the consequences of armed conflicts, it sucks.

On a side not, I'm also disappointed by the lack of action of the emirate countries. With the assets and capabilities they have and that type of conflict in an arab state, this should by their time to becmome visible as political players.

Then why is the Jordanian Air Force operating so far out of SAR range?

They need to station atleast a few helos on the border with a friendly country before they go out and start bombing

I mean did no debriefing ask the question, what happens if we loose a aircraft how do we rescue the pilot??

Each country should draw a zone in which they operate and each country should be responsible for their respective zones and split the work between them

The chain of command filters through lots of data streaming through various platforms in many languages all are in know of who is hitting what, so if a Jordanian pilot goes down theoretically a US SAR can pick up the downed pilot too and vice versa

I think serious questions needs to be asked on why this pilot fell into enemy hands

Does ISIS have 3D radars in use? How could they identify that it was a Jordanian Jet that was the one which dropped the bomb that killed Kayla ?

How low was the fighter flying??

In a proper preparation it's part of the operational risk assesment. How much risk are you going to take to achieve a specific aim, and is it worth the risk. The jordanians made up their mind. Wich may or may not have been a wise desicion. But with the anti-air threat to fighters rather low and the chances of catastrophic mechanical failure slim, that's the remaining risk one needs to take in combat. I guess all the more important targets (high value / high pay-off), are more to the north and north east of Syria, so naturally farther from jordanian boarders.
Certainly in a perfect operation, everything would go through a unified command with streamlined oprtions to react. However, for what ever reasen, things might not be that integrated in reality.
With ISIS, syrian forces, al-Nusra, FSA all running around thinking those helos might be the enemy, at least that CSAR flight will likely need a proper protection package. Then you need to station all of them somewhere. I don't think Turkey is a likely option, as they're rather reluctant joining the fighting. They still seem to have a different main enemy. Iraq? US combat assets stationed there again? Or jordanian ones? Perhaps. That leaves north iraq's kurdish region. But going there without iraqi consent might alianate them again.

Sure there need to be a lessons learned session and there's likely stuff to be improved ...