Taiwan military news and discussion part II

Originally Posted by Aero_Wing_32

Back to the topic, I wonder if Taiwan can be associated with Japan in a gen 5 aircraft project. By then, they better face a too powerful militarized China, darkening the overall Asia.

Not a chance. Considering how much Japanese aircraft overrun their costs, the F-2 is three times as expensive as the F-16 and it's only a derivative of the later, (and add on 5th generation costs spirals in general), any ROC-Japan joint 5th generation fighter would be so ridiculously over budget there would be a bipartisan armed revolution in Taiwan to bring about instant reunification.

Originally Posted by Aero_Wing_32

First of all, the Rafale project was shown off to fully replace the whole fleets of the french airfoce only. I mean, not prepared for any exportation at the first time of the project.

Then OECD convention signed by France (no comment...). No political support for exportations. F1 and F2 standards were liabilities to push the aircraft abroad, leading it to a full maturity (F3 standard) later than finally expected. And now a high EUR currency cannot help all the european industries in their current and pending exportations.

Back to the topic, I wonder if Taiwan can be associated with Japan in a gen 5 aircraft project. By then, they better face a too powerful militarized China, darkening the overall Asia.

This would be almost impossible, due to the fact that Taiwan is Chinese and a lot of military men still hate them. Don't forget that majority of the personnel in the ROC military came from mainland China and they fought the Japanese during WWII. They hate Japan with a passion, just like the mainland Chinese today. The officers today might not hate Japan as much, but they are still brought up with education that's filled with stories of how the ROC military fought heroically against the Japanese. A lot of those current officers are descendants of those from mainland, and they grew up hearing those stories from textbooks and their own relatives. Probably many had relatives died while fighting the Japanese. Don't forget that Japan still has disputed islands with both mainland and Taiwan. In fact, Taiwan acts much more aggressively with those islands issues.

Originally Posted by pugachev_diver

This would be almost impossible, due to the fact that Taiwan is Chinese and a lot of military men still hate them. Don't forget that majority of the personnel in the ROC military came from mainland China and they fought the Japanese during WWII. They hate Japan with a passion, just like the mainland Chinese today. The officers today might not hate Japan as much, but they are still brought up with education that's filled with stories of how the ROC military fought heroically against the Japanese. A lot of those current officers are descendants of those from mainland, and they grew up hearing those stories from textbooks and their own relatives. Probably many had relatives died while fighting the Japanese. Don't forget that Japan still has disputed islands with both mainland and Taiwan. In fact, Taiwan acts much more aggressively with those islands issues.

I'm not trying to express hate messages towards the Japanese, but this is a fact. The same problem exists in mainland China and the two Koreas. You will never see any major cooperations between those countries and Japan, especially military cooperation. In fact, when I was visiting China few years back. A 5-star hotel was bombarded with bricks 24/7, simply because it had investments from a Japanese firm. Guess what's the city's name. It was Nanjing (or Nanking).

Similar stories happen in America, but we just never heard about on the news. In fact countless Sikhs were attacked immediately after 911 because they were mistaken to be the same people as of Bin Laden, simply because of their head-wear. The same applies to the current controversial topic of building a mosque near ground zero.

I'm not saying who is evil and who is wrong. I'm just saying that it is hard for two groups of people to cooperate, especially at the level of making weapons, when they have hatred towards one another.

The question shouldn't be if the Rafale is 'good enough' for the ROCAF, the question should be 'would any country in their right mind sell Taiwan fighter aircraft'? I don't think the ROC is in any sort of position right now to be picky about national defence (although from their actions, some in government may not realize this fact). The only country that I could think of who have the least amount of political and financial capital to lose in signing military deals with the ROC would be India. Tejas' over Taipei? Give them a few years and this might not be the only option left? Countries may poke and prod China's patience when dealing with Taiwan but very few are willing to feel the brunt of Beijing's global financial displeasure.

I've thought about India and Taiwan doing some defence deals. Given the amount of hardware Pakistan is getting from China, and that soon they might be getting subs I often wonder what the chances are of India selling Taiwan some equipment?

Originally Posted by druid84

I've thought about India and Taiwan doing some defence deals. Given the amount of hardware Pakistan is getting from China, and that soon they might be getting subs I often wonder what the chances are of India selling Taiwan some equipment?

Not out of the question, but there's not a lot that India can make which Taiwan can't... and in some cases Taiwan is ahead of India, like advanced SAMs, or even arguably fighter jets.

Unless India wants to antagonize its already relatively uneven relationship with China, then I don't think it will move to sell weapons to Taiwan in the near future. If one day China is more reliant on India for its economy, and is militarily and politically far less potent, then Indian arms sales to Taiwan are a possibility but that kind of balance does not look on the cards in the next few decades, at least.

Basically, if the US isn't willing to sell weapons to Taiwan, then you can be near sure no one else will be.

Originally Posted by Bltizo

Not out of the question, but there's not a lot that India can make which Taiwan can't... and in some cases Taiwan is ahead of India, like advanced SAMs, or even arguably fighter jets.

Unless India wants to antagonize its already relatively uneven relationship with China, then I don't think it will move to sell weapons to Taiwan in the near future. If one day China is more reliant on India for its economy, and is militarily and politically far less potent, then Indian arms sales to Taiwan are a possibility but that kind of balance does not look on the cards in the next few decades, at least.

Basically, if the US isn't willing to sell weapons to Taiwan, then you can be near sure no one else will be.

You are right but at the end of the day, AIDC does not have the capability to build more IDFs on its own, its hands are already full with the C/D upgrades to existing IDFs. AIDC has lot a lot of manpower and expertise over the past few decade, many of them drifting to other aerospace jobs in Korea, North America and many other places. What HAL can bring to the table is production capability. The Tejas has an open production line with an established relationship with General Electric for aircraft engines. AIDC may be more advanced technically but it has no ability to use that technical knowledge to create what the ROCAF needs, new fighter aircraft. You of course are right though, it does NOT look like its on the cards right now, but other than India I cannot think of any other country that Taiwan can partner with develop or deliver another fighter in the future. There are far less doors open for Taiwan compared to when they purchased Mirage 2000-5s in the early 90's. There are very few sources of fighter aircraft for Taiwan. There is the US, which has some very serious consideration to make over the sale of more F-16s to the ROC due to its relationship with China counterbalanced with its obligations to the ROC, there is AIDC who would need to restart its production lines which is NOT a very small feat and then there is a 3rd party country who the pool to pick and choose from, is very, very, shallow.

Well, those two IDF C/D prototypes back in 2006 were new builds, weren't they?

Originally Posted by pugachev_diver

This would be almost impossible, due to the fact that Taiwan is Chinese and a lot of military men still hate them. Don't forget that majority of the personnel in the ROC military came from mainland China and they fought the Japanese during WWII. They hate Japan with a passion, just like the mainland Chinese today. The officers today might not hate Japan as much, but they are still brought up with education that's filled with stories of how the ROC military fought heroically against the Japanese. A lot of those current officers are descendants of those from mainland, and they grew up hearing those stories from textbooks and their own relatives. Probably many had relatives died while fighting the Japanese. Don't forget that Japan still has disputed islands with both mainland and Taiwan. In fact, Taiwan acts much more aggressively with those islands issues.

Don't bank on it.

Taiwan's sentiment towards Japan is far more friendly than that of China, for Japan did a pretty good job in its colonization, including image building, and the dismal shape of the KMT when they take over...see, when Japanese finally leave their military was in orderly fashion, and the KMT troops were simply ragtag to say the least.

Even now, culturally Taiwan is more affected by the Japanese, and not to mention their "green camp" is very tightly tied with Japanese...truth to be told, it's far more than an alliance...

And on the topic of prospect of joint military project, even if there's US silent consent, Japan's constitution would prevent it from making it a reality until they change it, as there'd be complicated issues with splitting the workload, ratio of components production, and most importantly export of key elements (unless using complicated workaround, but that'd further drive up the cost nonetheless)...how about work in secret? Taiwan's media have no sense of national security, that they'd see it as a scoop and would more than happy to wip up a storm to crash and burn such project.

Better off to buy stuff through Singapore (which have been done before, like the 35mm AA gun Taiwan is using now) or knock on US door...

Originally Posted by Skywatcher

Well, those two IDF C/D prototypes back in 2006 were new builds, weren't they?

I don't know for sure in this specific case (they were newly built though back in 2006, you are correct) but they were most likely hand constructed like most prototype aircraft rather than built in a facility that would be capable of mass producing them

Originally Posted by Aero_Wing_32

First of all, the Rafale project was shown off to fully replace the whole fleets of the french airfoce only. I mean, not prepared for any exportation at the first time of the project.

France was an original pioneer member of the Eurofighter Typhoon program. They pulled out of the Typhoon program so that they can develop the Rafale. Till date, less than 100 Rafale have been built with no export orders yet. In contrast, more than 260 of the newer Typhoons have been built with 620 confirmed orders from the participating countries alone. Typhoon, despite being a later arrival as compared to Rafale, has also secured export orders Austria, Saudi Arabia and Greece. Guess who is having the last laugh?

Originally Posted by Aero_Wing_32

Back to the topic, I wonder if Taiwan can be associated with Japan in a gen 5 aircraft project. By then, they better face a too powerful militarized China, darkening the overall Asia.

Taiwan-Japan collaboration? And which political party in Taiwan will have the will to make it happen? KMT is currently pro-China, so certainly not them. DPP didn't do anything close to that when they were in power for 8 years. Perhaps an independent President?

Other than US, the only other realistic source of military hardware for RoC will be the Russians. At least they can also offer a full suite of options ranging from fighters (MIGs, SUs), warships, subs (kilos will be nice), tanks (T-90s perhaps?) and missiles (BrahMos, S-300, etc).

Originally Posted by Semi-Lobster

I don't know for sure in this specific case (they were newly built though back in 2006, you are correct) but they were most likely hand constructed like most prototype aircraft rather than built in a facility that would be capable of mass producing them

I think they would have probably built them using the original machinery (which is probably stored away somewhere, if the AIDC is like other military aerospace manufacturers). Might be a start up cost though to reactivate the line.

Originally Posted by Spartan95

France was an original pioneer member of the Eurofighter Typhoon program. They pulled out of the Typhoon program so that they can develop the Rafale. Till date, less than 100 Rafale have been built with no export orders yet. In contrast, more than 260 of the newer Typhoons have been built with 620 confirmed orders from the participating countries alone. Typhoon, despite being a later arrival as compared to Rafale, has also secured export orders Austria, Saudi Arabia and Greece. Guess who is having the last laugh?

You shouldn't speak about the export sales of the E.F. Typhoon that have been fully supported by some politicians... specially in the Saudi case (well...). As I said exporting the Rafale was not a key point in the french fighter project when it started.

The other problem is that the plane costs now more than both the Gripen (not a surprise) and the Rafale.

Typhoon bill 'unacceptably high'
15 April 2011
Typhoon bill 'unacceptably high' - Defence Management

This european plane is also not as advanced as these 2 aircrafts in multirole tasks. Last but not least, some partners are not ready to fund the rest of their orders considering it as a waste of money, and hesitating when asking for more & more money required in the last Tranches.


That s why I see the Gripen, Rafale and of course the F-16 as the best planes for the ROCAF, in urgent need of next gen. multirole fighters.

Now time to distract you guys

Taiwan to build new 'stealth' warship

Construction starts in 2012, so I'm assuming it's domestic builder (Y). Most likely CSBC?

This is some good news, if it's indigenous.