SinoDefence Forum

kliu0

Is the Democrats/Obama Administration not willing to talk, or is it just that Taiwan isn't willing to talk to them?

I was wondering....would there be anymore possible upgrades that could extend the F-5's capability? Since the F-16s are seeming unlikely to be sold anytime soon.

Mr T

According to an article that quotes Republican legislators as supporting the deal? How is that a logical conclusion? This was a conference hosted by the Heritage Foundation, not Taiwanese-sponsored procurement talks. Also there are Democrats who back the sale (always have been). The Taiwan Caucus is bipartisan. That senior Democrats weren't quoted in a newspaper article as no relation to what support there is in Congress.

Of course Taiwan wants to talk - indeed it is talking.

Semi-Lobster

Ahh woops, I was posting really late that night and sort of missed a paragraph, it does mention the Democrat-majority House Foreign Affairs Committee. I guess I saw so many Republican names and the Heritage Institute and I jumped the gun a bit. Although I believe the 'general consensus on Capitol Hill' is a bit over blown since I'm not sure how much International experience Congress has right now. But still from I read though, there has been no direct talks with the Obama administration on the F-16 issue yet.

bd popeye

Exactly..They need to deal now with the Democrats and Obama administration to get the equipment they need. Otherwise they may well end up empty handed.

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Mr T

Putting aside members who served previously, American politicians are usually pro-Taiwan. I can't remember the last Congress was anti-Taiwan, or even not supportive of arms sales generally (unless it concerned the most top-end stuff).

Direct talks were certainly planned according to Taiwanese government statements back in April. If they have not started yet they will soon.

Mr T

Speak of the Devil......

Campbell confirms arms talks

kliu0

Heres a nice editorial, courtesy of Taipei Times:

I've taken the courtesy of editing out some politics. The full article (unedited) is at the link.

EDITORIAL: Military hopes raised by US signals

Taipei Times - archives

pla101prc

a new arms deal can prolly help america's military industry just a little bit but compare that to what they might be risking in face of Beijing's retaliation, i seriously doubt obama would give a greenlight to this any time soon

Tristan131

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Mr T

It's not just about cash, it's also about strategic balance. It's not in America's interest to see China have an ever increasing military advantage over Taiwan.

China has cards to play against the US, but it's also been pointed out that some of them (financial) would hurt it just as much. That's why I would be very surprised if the Black Hawk deal did not pass by the end of the year. Don't know about the submarines, but I wouldn't write the F-16s off either.

Aero_Wing_32

Hello pals!
I second that Mr T.
But I also mostly agree with pla101prc's post, when he mentioned about the risk USA would take in dealing arms to Taiwan ROC... How many hundreds of billions USD did PRC lend to the USA during the crisis?!
Even though discussions are under way now, I also don t think that any deal would come this year!
And are we sure that Taiwan is only discussing with USA now?

Mr T

I could be wrong, but I believe that China didn't lend America a penny. It continued to buy Treasury shares, which is an investment. That's why China can't veto US arms sales to Taiwan, just try to have them delayed or encourage Washington to limit what is sold.

If there isn't a deal for the F-16s this year I think Taiwan will start buying newly-built IDFs. It needs to plug the fighter gap. I have a feeling the Black Hawks will be sorted before the end of the year though.

Not at all, I'm sure they're still talking to the French.

pla101prc

there is a difference between black hawk and f-16 lol.
i have been studying IR every day for the past two years and i can tell you a couple of new jet fighters will not change the balance of power there. whenever Taiwan acquires something new, it will not take long for the Mainland to come up with a way or a weapon to counter it. balance of power aint all about weapons, otherwise Germany would have crushed Soviet Union back in 41 (or was it 42 i forgot). the Mainland has way more of everything at its disposal than Taiwan does. in the end the Mainland is gonna benefit from making all their weapons because it builds a good industrial base and stimulates technology and economy. and Taiwan will be screwed cuz they are just spending money.
selling weapons have always been a political gesture. and right now it just aint time for obama to make this political gesture. maybe in a few years he will but not now unless he thinks he needs more of those useless political stunts to boost his own personal ego.

pla101prc

dude selling T-bills is the same as lending money, its word games.

Taiwan has a whole bunch of F-16's that were sold like during the bush sr era lol, i think those are gonna be out of service in 5-10 years. if they wanna replace those they'll need way more than 66 fighters. and this is like the preliminary round of preliminary round of the discussion (for F-16), so yeah they should either talk with the French (cuz they dont like China for the moment being) or they should buy a few more IDF.

again no surprise if the black hawk deal goes through, its a not an offensive weapon...

Mr T

There are important distinctions, such as probable duration. But never mind. The point is that China has never (to my knowledge) stopped buying Treasury bills because of US arms sales to China. The most it has done is reduce relations on the military level.

They're about 10-12 years old. I'd say they have a lot more than 5 years left in them. Depends how hard they've been flown, but in future years if necessary they might be suitable for SLEP.

Arguably F-16s aren't either if they're not sold offensive weapons to go with them. Currently Taiwan's only long-ranged air-to-ground missiles can be fired from the IDF.