Taiwan military news and discussion part II

This is an interesting article. I just don't get what the point of asking China to remove 1400 missiles will do when the missiles are mobile.....sort of destroys the point of asking.

Defense News

01/12/09

China Suggests Mil-to-Mil With Taiwan

By Wendell Minnick

TAIPEI — In what many consider a sea change in cross-Strait relations, both China and Taiwan are openly discussing military relations, a move that could end future U.S. arms sales to Taiwan but also resolve 60 years of tension between Taipei and Beijing.

In an unprecedented act, Chinese President Hu Jintao called for military exchanges and a peace accord with Taiwan during a speech on Dec. 31. Hu said that at the proper time, military contacts and confidence-building measures would stabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

“People on both sides of the Strait share the responsibility of ending the history of confrontation,” Hu said. “Under the common understanding of one China, the two sides can talk about anything. We will promote anything that is conducive to peaceful development across the Strait, and we will firmly oppose anything that harms it.”
After a nine-year suspension, Taiwan and China resumed cross-Strait talks in June. Progress came quickly with weekend charter flights across the strait in July, a visit by a Chinese government delegation in November, and the launching of direct shipping, air transport and postal services in December.

The legislative and presidential election victories in early 2008 by the Beijing-friendly Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) spurred the change. Taiwan’s new president, Ma Ying-jeou, promised closer relations with China and was the first to suggest confidence-building measures and a possible peace accord with China.
“It does seem that there is an ongoing thaw across the Taiwan Strait, not only politically, but also militarily,” said Wu Yu-Shan, a political specialist at Academia Sinica, here.
“Goodwill gestures are taken in a reciprocal manner. How far this will go remains to be seen.” After Hu’s speech, the Hong Kong-based Yazhou Zhoukan magazine printed an uncon*firmed report that China was considering reducing the number of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), now numbering about 1,300, aimed at Taiwan.
Though the report came from a Chinese-language media source, the news was taken seriously inside Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND).

“The ministry welcomes the idea of China withdrawing missiles and believes it would be a positive development between the militaries of both sides,” an MND spokesman said.

However, China’s Dong Feng 11/15 SRBMs are mobile and can easily be redeployed.

“If China drastically reduces its military buildup opposite Taiwan, which is unlikely, that would be welcome,” said Bonnie Glaser of the China Studies Center, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.
“It would then be up to Taiwan to decide how much it would continue to spend on defense and what weapons it would continue to need to provide for its security. This scenario is not likely to take place in the next few years, if at all.” 

Will Taiwan Need U.S. Arms? 

Closer relations could influence U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

In October, the United States released a $6.4 billion arms package that included AH-64D Apache attack helicopters, Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems, Javelin anti-tank missile systems, sub-launched Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and F-16 fighter and E-2 Hawkeye parts.
Taiwan is still pushing the United States to release F-16 fighters to replace aging F-5s, and has plans to ask Washington for M1 Abrams tanks, Aegis-equipped destroyers and UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters.

Now the question is, will Taiwan need any more U.S. arms as relations with China become cozier?

“They [China] do not need a military to take Taiwan. They can use economic, political and cultural links to absorb Taiwan,” said Lin Chong-Pin, former Taiwan deputy minister of defense.

Lin said China’s intelligence services will get more access to Taiwan’s military as relations improve.

Taiwan has long been happy hunting grounds for China’s espionage efforts, and there are fears in Washington that advanced U.S. arms technology could end up in Beijing’s hands.

In 2002, a Taiwan military officer was accused of selling operational manuals for the Patriot PAC-2 Plus air defense system to China. A Taiwan arms broker, Bill Moo, was convicted in the United States in 2006 for attempting to ship an F*16 fighter jet engine to China. In 2008, a Taiwan arms broker was arrested in the United States, along with a Pentagon official, for selling secrets to China.

After Hu’s speech, Ma acknowledged the need for peace talks with China, but also emphasized Taiwan’s need for a strong defense. However, Taiwan’s minister of national defense, Chen Chao-min, has cut the annual Han Kuang military exercises to every two years. The official explanation was to improve the defense ministry’s ability to absorb lessons from the exercise, but others wondered whether the Ma administration was seeking to further placate China.

During the first week of January, a Chinese academic delegation visited Taiwan and met with senior military officials to discuss closer relations. The delegation was headed by officials from the Institute of International Studies, Center for U.S.-China Relations, based at Beijing’s Tsinghua University. Sources said this effort would be followed by official military delegations.

One issue being discussed is confidence-building measures, although these appear unlikely in the near future. CBMs will reduce tensions but not resolve differences, Glaser said.
“They will, however, end the 60*year estrangement between the two militaries, and may reduce the chances of miscalculation, enhance understanding and trust, and build habits of cooperation,” she said.

Better relations across the strait will no doubt be welcomed in Washington, which has been in the awkward position of providing for Taiwan’s defense while maintaining good relations with China.

“Easing of cross-Strait tensions brings many benefits to the U.S. It reduces the danger of war that would likely involve the U.S.; it may help the Taiwan economy, and the U.S. has a strong interest in a pros*perous Taiwan; it reinforces the view in China that Beijing should rely on peaceful means of seeking reunification and eschew use of force; and it reduces tensions in U.S.-China relations,” Glaser said.

The real question is whether Ma can balance good relations with both China and the United States.

“Whether he is able to do so, improving ties with both Beijing and Washington simultaneously, remains to be seen,” Wu said. “That would be his major challenge.”
If Taiwan falls into China’s political and military orbit, it would redefine the U.S. role in Asia.

This is why I argue that missiles cannot be the only thing a Taiwanese leader gets in negotiations - it's an easy thing for the PRC to do because it superficially looks like they're extending goodwill, while not giving up anything useful at all.

True true.

"A Taiwan arms broker, Bill Moo, was convicted in the United States in 2006 for attempting to ship an F*16 fighter jet engine to China. " ---- This is probably why the US won't sell F-16 C/Ds to Taiwan.

Heres a more extensive article on the PAC-3 Deal.
I didn't even know it was a separate deal from the 6.5 Billion one approved by Bush.


Raytheon welcomes PAC-3 deal
By William Lowther
STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
Thursday, Jan 29, 2009, Page 2

“Upgrading Patriot fire units from Configuration-2 to Configuration-3 will provide Taiwan with enhanced system capabilities to meet current and emerging threats.”
— Sanjay Kapoor, vice president for Patriot Programs at Raytheon

The US has approved a US$154 million contract to allow Raytheon Company to further upgrade Taiwan’s Patriot Air and Missile Defense System.

It is the first positive indication of how the administration of US President Barack Obama will handle military requests from Taipei.

There had been fears that the new president might neglect Taiwanese defense as he pushed for better relations with China.

But the new contract has won White House support in the wake of a major policy paper from Beijing that said blocking formal Taiwanese independence and stopping US arms sales to Taiwan were the chief concerns of the Chinese military.

The Patriot contract was issued by the US Army Aviation and Missile Command at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, on Monday.

It is not part of the US$6.5 billion arms sale to Taiwan that was approved by former US president George Bush last October.

Rather, it is a totally separate deal that follows two other awards Raytheon received last year for Taiwan Patriot support, one in March for upgrades and another in April for technical services.

Under the new contract Raytheon will upgrade Taiwan’s Patriots from “Configuration-2” to “Configuration-3,” bringing them to the same state-of-the-art level as the US Army’s own Patriot system.

This means that Taiwan can use Lockheed’s PAC-3 missiles and allows missile launchers to be placed miles in front of the radar that controls the system.

“Upgrading Patriot fire units from Configuration-2 to Configuration-3 will provide Taiwan with enhanced system capabilities to meet current and emerging threats,” said Sanjay Kapoor, vice president for Patriot Programs at Raytheon.

CAPABILITY

The upgraded Patriots are believed to be capable of intercepting and destroying many — if not most — incoming missiles fired in an enemy attack.

But the Patriot is not foolproof and in the case of a large-scale attack involving dozens of enemy missiles all being fired at once at a variety of targets, some would be nearly certain to get through.

As part of the new contract Raytheon — the world’s largest missile maker — will provide upgrade kits for radar and command and control components, a radar refurbishment and related engineering and technical services.

Under last October’s arms sales agreement, Taiwan will get 330 of the Lockheed Martin built PAC-3 missiles valued at US$3.1 billion.

Bonnie Glaser, a senior associate at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, predicted earlier this month that cooperation between Beijing and Washington would not come at Taiwan’s expense.

“The US will seek to create an environment in which Taiwan feels secure. Arms sales will remain under consideration, especially new fighter jets. China’s military posture toward Taiwan will be the critical variable in any arms sale decision, along with Taiwan’s requests for defensive weapons to defend itself against a Chinese attack,” she said.

China has more than 1,400 missiles pointed at Taiwan and has said repeatedly that it would achieve unification by force if needed.

WHITE PAPER

Indeed, China’s latest national defense White Paper indicates that Taiwan remains the focus of China’s current military buildup.

The Associated Press reported a few days ago that Beijing was keeping this year’s spending figures for its 2.3 million-strong armed forces secret. But last year China announced a military budget of US$59 billion, up nearly 18 percent over the previous year.

It was the 18th year of double-digit growth in military spending in the last 19 years.

Interestingly...i was reading the January 2009 issue of the Defence Technology Monthly, there was a prototype CM21/DRAGAR which is an upgrade of the Taiwanese M113 (CM21) and is an alternative to the Bradley. It packs quite a punch only lacking the 'missiles' part of the Bradley. It would've been a great phase upgrade if only it was approved....

Sometimes I don't get it.......I mean the current CM21 still have people on top armed with machine guns with no cover.....while the upgrade could've allowed a 25mm cannon to be placed on top protecting the personnel. Additionally it would've seen upgrades to armor and the defensive smoke abilities... Is the army just plain stupid? Its not like it is a major super expensive upgrade and it would greatly increase the fighting power of its older armored cavalry units.

Originally Posted by kliu0

Interestingly...i was reading the January 2009 issue of the Defence Technology Monthly, there was a prototype CM21/DRAGAR which is an upgrade of the Taiwanese M113 (CM21) and is an alternative to the Bradley. It packs quite a punch only lacking the 'missiles' part of the Bradley. It would've been a great phase upgrade if only it was approved....

Sometimes I don't get it.......I mean the current CM21 still have people on top armed with machine guns with no cover.....while the upgrade could've allowed a 25mm cannon to be placed on top protecting the personnel. Additionally it would've seen upgrades to armor and the defensive smoke abilities... Is the army just plain stupid? Its not like it is a major super expensive upgrade and it would greatly increase the fighting power of its older armored cavalry units.

The M113 is being retired from service from all of the major users around the world. Eventually, it will become unsupportable.

The Taiwanese variant of the M113 has gone through at least 5 upgrade phases, new armor and new engines not to mention new armaments. But what I'm trying to point out is that could be upgraded to something thats close enough to a Bradley just without the missile launchers. Its not expensive and will save money compared to buying new APCs.

Support is of no real concern, as Taiwan manufacturers and upgrades the M113 on its own. The M113 is old but with upgrades can still prove to be very useful. Just like the M60A3, if Taiwan is unable to procure M1A2s, perhaps the Sabre upgrade should do - new armor, armament and engine. Arrogance and pride blinds the ROCA brass....who just want new toys to play with.

Originally Posted by kliu0

The Taiwanese variant of the M113 has gone through at least 5 upgrade phases, new armor and new engines not to mention new armaments. But what I'm trying to point out is that could be upgraded to something thats close enough to a Bradley just without the missile launchers. Its not expensive and will save money compared to buying new APCs.

It really depends on how sound the hulls are; for all we know, the M113's could be on their last legs due to metal fatigue and hull cracking. I've seen plenty of Leopard I's that otherwise look OK on the outside been put out to pasture as gate guardians because of metal fatigue and hull cracking.

What has to be done is a complete survey on the condition of the M113 fleet. That means the hulls need to be jacked up and completely ultra-sounded to determine the hull thickness and to find any cracks in the hull. After that, they have to decide how to move forward. If the hulls are in pretty bad shape, there is no point in modernizing them again as it is a waste. Better off building or buying a new APC if the hulls are in bad shape.

They have new cloud leopard APCs, but since the M113 is still in service and is planned to remain to remain in service for another 10-15 years, why not upgrade? There have been no reports of hulls cracking.

Interesting link on Taiwan submarines: http://thetaiwanlink.blogspot.com/20...quest-for.html
Another on PAC 3: http://thetaiwanlink.blogspot.com/20...nt-taiwan.html

I wonder if this will have any changes on procurement policies? And most importantly will it change the outdated strategies of national defence to focus on urban warfare?

Defense ministry declines to comment on high-level reshuffle
TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The Ministry of National Defense (MND) declined yesterday to comment on President Ma Ying-jeou's recent high-level military reshuffle, saying that it is up to the president to use his discretion in setting such management reorganization.

The Presidential Office announced Monday that Deputy Defense Minister Adm. Lin Chen-yi was promoted to the post of chief of the General Staff.

Lin will fill the position to be vacated by Gen. Hou Shou-yeh, who has been tapped to serve as a strategic adviser to President Ma Ying-jeou. He is a graduate of the country's naval academy; he rose through the ranks of the Navy to reach its top office before assuming his current post,

Meanwhile, Army Commanding General Chao Shih-chang will succeed Lin as deputy defense minister. The post to be vacated by Chao will be filled by Yang Tien-hsiao, incumbent head of the MND's General Political Warfare Bureau. According to the MND, all personnel changes will take effect Feb. 5.

Originally Posted by kliu0

They have new cloud leopard APCs, but since the M113 is still in service and is planned to remain to remain in service for another 10-15 years, why not upgrade? There have been no reports of hulls cracking.

Interesting link on Taiwan submarines: http://thetaiwanlink.blogspot.com/20...quest-for.html
Another on PAC 3: http://thetaiwanlink.blogspot.com/20...nt-taiwan.html

Note that I said an ultrasound is necessary; they need to measure hull thickness and look for micro fractures. A visual inspection is insufficient to see if there is already cracks.

Originally Posted by The_Zergling

This is why I argue that missiles cannot be the only thing a Taiwanese leader gets in negotiations - it's an easy thing for the PRC to do because it superficially looks like they're extending goodwill, while not giving up anything useful at all.

A broader demilitarization is not advisable if that's what you're thinking. Ultimately China has concerns on its Eastern shore aside from Taiwan. At this point it's unlikely Taiwan would do anything to start a war, what edge they had has probably eroded with recent advancements by the PLA. So really their main interest now is preventing China from using its superior position to launch an attack. As such increasing economic ties and insuring good relations is the best way to insure China will not attack.

I don't believe Taiwan can ever leave themselves in a position of military superiority or even provide them with any element of safety. The backing of the U.S. isn't as good as some think it is either for a variety of reasons.

I want to get back to the conscription issue that is concerning the military now.

Since Taiwan is significantly smaller than that of Developed countries. The end of conscription can also be viewed as demilitarization. This reduction in armed forces will most certainly reduce costs, however it will lead to China having even more of an advantage. The reduced costs of military maintainence can be lead to more money being allocated to the procurement of more modern equipment. But then this raises another issue.....will Taiwan be able to get what it wants with all the money left over?

I'd like to see what other SDF members think about the conscription issue.

Someone please explain to me how in the world cutting the frequency of war games helps with improving the military's capabilities?

Updated Wednesday, February 11, 2009 1:18 am TWN, By Dimitri Bruyas,The China Post

Military to cut frequency of war games
Taiwan military said yesterday it is cutting the frequency of a major military exercise, but denied the move is connected to improving ties with China.

The statement by Major General Huang Kun-tsung comes amid a months-long effort by President Ma Ying-jeou to reverse his predecessor's Taiwan-centric stand and forge closer relations with Beijing authorities.

Speaking to reporters, Gen. Huang said the annual 'Han Kuang' or 'Chinese Glory' live-fire exercise will now be held every 24 months. The war game features land, sea and aerial maneuvers keyed to a possible Chinese invasion.

“The readiness of Taiwan's military is not being relaxed even though we are seeing less tension in the Taiwan Strait,” Gen. Huang said, referring to the 160km wide body of water between Taiwan and China.

“We are adjusting the frequency of the exercise to improve the military's capabilities,” he added.

Maj Gen. Li Yueh-chang, the officer in charge of operations and planning, said the longer Han Kuang interval will also allow military personnel more time to study lessons gleaned from previous exercises.

Since Ma came into office last May, he has beefed up trade relations with China and said he favors confidence-building measures between the Taiwanese and mainland militaries.

Please see MILITARY on page Last month Taiwan's military affirmed that it will slash the size of the island's armed forces, partially because of improving relations with China.

“(This) is part of the defense forces' restructuring, taking into consideration the new type of warfare, mainland relations and other external factors,” the Ministry of National Defense Spokeswoman Lisa Chi said at the time.