SinoDefence Forum

PrOeLiTeZ

porkies means telling lies.

if tawain buys rafale that would contradict its claims of self defence only. if biggest if in mankind tawain does get rafale this would pose a problem to china and make china scratch their heads for a while to come up with a solution in countering this. but i would go with f-16 as rafale is extremely expensive for tawain already tight low budget. 1 rafale can get 3 f-16c/d.

kliu0

Oh okaiz....thats a new word learnt today.

I was just wondering, have the French officially ruled out weapons sales? Cauz I remember after the sale of La Fayette and Mirage 2000Es, the French said they would stop selling weapons to Taiwan.

Mr T

Well Sarkozy doesn't have to follow what his predecessors have said. Generally they've held true to that statement, but it can be broken anytime Paris calculates they have more to gain than lose from a big sale. It's not as if they don't want to sell on ideological/political grounds.

No point speculating about it at the moment.

Not necessarily. First, France would have to agree to sell it weapons that would be useful in an air-to-ground attack on China. And even if it did, Taiwan would only use them after China had started a military attack. Obviously Taiwan has to reserve the right to go after Chinese bases in case of war.

I don't think that's quite the case. Perhaps the cost is 2-1 but that depends on how much the extras cost. I think the US tends to tag them on to the basic cost, whilst France includes more in the offer price. However, it would be rather tempting to get the Rafale even though it costs more. The F-16 Block 50/52+ is quite decent, but it's still a 4th generation plane. The Rafale is 4.5 gen, something that Taiwan might not be able to get for quite a while until the F-35 is made available.

France could make a big killing by selling not just Rafales but also other things like AAW upgrades to the Kang Dings. If it sells the Rafale it will annoy China greatly anyway, so it might as well make more money. I've wondered whether submarines could be included in the deal, but I think that's difficult because relatively few countries operate the Scorpene and Taiwan would want a diverse source of spare parts.

I would say that the F-16/US submarine sales are more likely at this point. France would need to make a decision fairly quickly to move forward, as it's quite probably Bush will release more items after the US election but before he leaves office.

kliu0

So the La Fayettes and Mirage 2000Es aren't getting any upgrades?

Whats wrong with Taiwan getting nuclear submarines?

If Taiwan isn't going to get UH-60 Black Hawks, would they be able to obtain European helicopters?

Mr T

Does France make the only AAW equipment in the world? It's an option, not the only option. RIM-116 is another one.

As for the Mirages, I have no idea.

Oh I dunno, maybe because they're very expensive, difficult to operate from scratch and have very top secret US stuff inside? No one has ever credibly suggested SSNs are on the cards. That's the whole reason why Taiwan's submarine programme has had trouble - the US only builds SSNs but would have to supply SSKs. It probably could do the latter, but they'd be expensive.

No idea.

kliu0

A sign of things to come if McCain is elected?
------------------------------------------------
U.S. should stand by Taiwanese people: presidential candidate
CNA
Thursday, October 9, 2008 3:50 am

Washington –– America should continue to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan in the future

and stand by Taiwan's people, U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain said Tuesday.

"I welcome reports indicating that the sale of defensive arms to Taiwan –– a package that has been on hold for too long –– will now move forward, " McCain said in a statement issued Tuesday by his campaign headquarters in Arlington, Va.

The administration is taking a step in the right direction by notifying Congress of its intent to provide weapons aimed at bolstering Taiwan's self defense, he said in the statement.

"I have long supported such sales in order to strengthen deterrence in the Taiwan Strait and to help preserve the peace. American interests in Asia are well-served through faithful implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act, and if I am fortunate enough to be elected President, I will continue the longstanding and close ties between our peoples," McCain said.

The Pentagon's Defense Cooperation Security Agency on Oct. 3 notified Congress that it had approved the sale of a package of weapons to Taiwan, including 30 Apache attack helicopters, 330 advanced capability Patriot (PAC-3) missiles, 32 Harpoon sub-launched missiles, 182 guided Javelin missile rounds, and four E-2T system upgrades.

But the U.S. did not approve Taiwan's requests for 64 Black Hawk helicopters and 8 diesel-electric submarines, nor did it accept a letter asking the U.S. to sell Taiwan advanced F-16C/D fighters, a decision McCain disagreed with.

"I urge the administration to reconsider this decision, in light of its previous commitment to provide submarines and America's previous sales of F-16s," the statement said.

"These sales –– which could translate into tens of thousands of jobs here at home –– would help retain America's edge in the production of advanced weaponry and represent a positive sign in these difficult economic times."

While McCain did not discount the importance of seeking cooperative and productive relations with China, he argued promoting the improvement of cross-strait relations meant bolstering Taiwan's defense capabilities.

"We should understand that the possibility of productive ties between Taiwan and China are enhanced, not diminished, when Taipei speaks from a position of strength," McCain said in the statement.

"I believe that America should continue to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan in the future, in accordance with its security requirements, and stand by this remarkable free and democratic people," he said.

Aero_Wing_32

"I urge the administration to reconsider this decision, in light of its previous commitment to provide submarines and America's previous sales of F-16s"

That s a good point to see that the 2 candidates are fully involved in the question of Taiwan strait. However I do think Mr Mc Cain seems more concerned than Mr Obama. No doubt he would give his total agreement for a quick sale of aircrafts to Taiwan. (Don t ask me who I would vote for, if I were an american citizen ...)

For those who will be in Paris in the next days, and who like french and european defense industry, you can visit an impressive military exposition from the Concorde to the Champs Elysees. You can see the Rafale (big public success!), Mirages, older aicrafts, drones, missiles launchers, and Airbus Thales, Safran Snecma, EADS, MBDA stands (and even others). French aerospace industry is celebrating its centenary. This event is organized from 4 to 12 october 2008. I know it falls out the topic, so I apologize.

Mr T

U.S. presidential candidate welcomes arms sales to Taiwan

Obama backs the sales too.

kliu0

Well, its nice to know that every candidate says they support Taiwan, just to gain popularity among the Taiwanese supporters.

The true supporters of Taiwan will be seen when either one of them enters office. McCain has been more vocal though, saying that submarines and more F-16s should be sold immediately. Obama has just been saying that he supports the TRA and the proposed weapons sales.

Heres an article from The Economist:
Defending Taiwan

Balancing act
Oct 9th 2008 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

An end to the mainland honeymoon; but no divorce yet

UNDER Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s president for eight years from 2000, Taiwan saw markedly worse relations with both its traditional foe, mainland China, and its staunchest ally, America. Ma Ying-jeou, installed as Mr Chen’s successor in May, has hoped to pull off the opposite trick, and improve ties with both. That may not be as impossible as it sounds.

On October 3rd the Bush administration notified Congress that it would sell the island $6.5 billion-worth of weaponry. The package includes 330 Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missiles, intended to intercept missiles fired from the coast of Fujian province, opposite Taiwan, where China has stationed some 1,400. Taiwan will also buy 30 Apache Longbow attack helicopters, equipped with night-vision sensors, air-to-air missiles and Hellfire missiles; 32 Harpoon submarine-launched missiles; 182 Javelin-guided missiles with 20 launch units; upgrades to four E-2T airborne-warning and control aircraft; and various spare parts. Congress has 30 days to object to items on the list, but is not expected to.

Taiwan’s military ties with America were never in serious jeopardy. But they had frayed in recent years, and the news of the arms deal was greeted in Taiwan with relieved gratitude. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act obliges American administrations to sell Taiwan arms for its own defence. In 2001 George Bush offered it many of the items in this package, such as the Patriots. But Mr Ma’s Nationalist party, the Kuomintang, in opposition at the time, blocked the purchase, arguing it was too expensive. When Taiwan’s legislature at last approved the purchase last year, it was America’s turn to delay. Exasperated by the squabbling in Taiwan, American officials also needed China’s help on a range of issues, such as persuading North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons.

Greeting the latest deal, Mr Ma’s office declared that a new era of mutual trust with America had begun. Only two of Taiwan’s weaponry requests were declined—plans to build diesel-electric submarines and for 60 Black Hawk utility helicopters.

China has reacted with predictable anger, cancelling some military exchanges with America. But its pique is likely to be short-lived. The deal has been so long in the pipeline that China has had plenty of time to get used to it and to adjust its own military build-up accordingly. Even with the new kit, Taiwan will remain vulnerable to Chinese missiles. America has stored up credit with China in its treatment of Taiwan over the past few years. Chinese officials were pleased by America’s discouragement of Chen Shui-bian’s efforts to clarify Taiwan’s independence. They have scaled back their bellicose rhetoric towards Taiwan that caused widespread alarm earlier in the decade.

There has been no sign so far that China will let this dispute affect other areas of co-operation with America. Haughtily berating America for its financial problems, China would nevertheless like to regain the kudos it won in the wake of the Asian financial crisis by appearing to play a constructive role in stemming the fallout.

The sale also raises questions about future relations between Taiwan and China, which have blossomed under President Ma. Taiwan hopes Chen Yunlin, Beijing’s most senior negotiator on Taiwan, will visit in the next few weeks. He is expected to discuss only practical matters, such as direct cargo links, but he would be the highest-ranking Chinese official to visit Taiwan since the end of the civil war in 1949.

Mr Ma hopes that closer ties with China will give a boost to Taiwan’s flagging economy. He also hopes the new arms will help him negotiate with Beijing from a position of strength. Analysts said the purchase is unlikely to derail plans for Mr Chen’s visit. But it is a reminder that the Taiwan Strait is one of Asia’s flashpoints. Andrew Yang, an analyst in Taipei, says the sale was largely symbolic: Taiwan will still be unable to fend off a Chinese attack. But “it shows the United States may step in.”


BTW, if you guys didn't know. Today is Double Ten Day! National Anniversary of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Happy Birthday to Taiwan!

flyzies

McCain Lobbies For Taiwan Arms Sales After Taiwan Signs Lobbying Contract With His Adviser’s Firm

The Bush administration is currently in discussions to send $6 billion in arms to Taiwan. Yesterday, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) sent a letter to President Bush, urging him to “add more submarines and new fighter jets to the package” as Taiwan had requested:

“The package will not include submarines or new F-16 aircraft. I urge the administration to reconsider this decision, in light of its previous commitment to provide submarines and America’s previous sales of F-16s,” McCain said. “These sales — which could translate into tens of thousands of jobs here at home — would help retain America’s edge in the production of advanced weaponry and represent a positive sign in these difficult economic times.”

McCain’s desire to increase arms sales to Taiwan, however, raises questions about yet another conflict of interest involving his chief foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann, who previously lobbied for the Taiwanese government. The Washington Post reports:

In 2005, Scheunemann signed the contract between his firm, Orion Strategies LLC, and Taiwan’s Washington office. On June 4 of this year, his partner, Mike Mitchell, signed a renewal of the contract, which calls for quarterly payments of 50,000.

Scheunemann represented Taiwan from 2003 to March at Orion. The LA Times reported that McCain has pushed for pro-Taiwan legislation, as Orion’s lobbying forms cite “bills benefiting Orion’s other foreign clients: Latvia, Macedonia, Romania and Taiwan.”

Scheunemann introduced McCain to a representative of Taiwan as it lobbied for free trade. In all, Scheunemann’s firm has lobbied McCain or his aides on at least 47 occasions since 2001 on behalf of the governments of Taiwan, Macedonia, Romania and Latvia.

Matt Duss notes that Scheunemann has lobbied for Lockheed-Martin, the world’s largest defense contractor, which manufactures the F-16s that McCain is demanding the U.S. give to Taiwan. Scheunemann had also been employed as a lobbyist for Georgia at the same time he was providing foreign policy advice to McCain, lobbying McCain himself nearly 50 times between 2004 and 2007.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/08/...nemann-tawian/

kliu0

Isn't a pro-arms sales government good for Taiwan then? If I read the article correctly.

Aero_Wing_32

Well If I understand, this Mr Scheuenmann would be also involded as a lobbyist in the upcoming fighter planes market in Romania. This country selected Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, SAAB Gripen... and F-16 (refurbished) to replace their old F-5.
This kind of political lobbying highly upset Eastern european partners though...

Concerning the arm sales issue to Taiwan, I recently heard that the french army would have some Mirage 2000-9 to sell at a "bargain" price. These planes would come from the deal with United Arabian Emirates that will probably buy 60 Rafales before end of 2008. In exchange french Army will get the UAE 2000-9 fleet back. For those who know the Mirages, the 2000-9 standard is simply the best (from the laser radars to the multirole capabilities, it s often compared to an almost 4th generation aircraft). I dare say they re far better than refurbished F-16 B/C to Taiwan. This week one french newspaper gave Pakistan as the main potential customer. But other countries are also interested...

Mr T

Of course it would be, but that isn't the point of the article. It's attacking McCain because of who he is linked to.

But, hey, if Taiwan gets the arms, it gets the arms.

Aero_Wing_32

French Army would have a few Mirage 2000-9 (the best version of Mirage Fighter Aircraft) to sell. They would get them back from UAE which want to purchase 60 Rafales with probably the F3 standard indeed.
As mentioned in some french newspapers, France could sell them to Pakistan or to any other country, so why not to Taiwan ROC?

Mr T

A few Mirage 2000-9s wouldn't be worth it to France or Taiwan. Upgrading the existing fleet would be more worthwhile for both parties.

I'm sure France would have watched China's reaction to the US sale with interest, but it would want to sell something that it can make a lot of money on to ensure any damage is worth it. I'd be surprised if we saw a single sale like Mirage upgrades - it would be something bigger, or part of a larger package if it happened at all.