SinoDefence Forum

kliu0

Yea I guess thats true, but isn't the Rafale more expensive than the F-16? so wouldn't it be like Taiwan would purchase some Rafales but more F-16s like during the 1990s when Taiwan purchased 60 Mirages and 150 F-16s. Anything on what the french are planning to upgrade on the Taiwanese frigates or the Mirage fighters? Because all i heard was that the french was going to upgrade, i didn't hear anything on what exactly was being upgraded (equipment wise).

Skywatcher

I doubt that the French would ever offer the Rafale at anything remotely resembling a reasonable price.

FuManChu

If that were the case they wouldn't offer it in the first place because they know what the response would be. If Taiwan had no choice, maybe - but the F-16 will fill its requirements and that is likely to be offered in the coming months.

If France wants to sell the Rafale it has to be reasonable, even if it still makes a tidy profit.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

kliu0

The Rafale would have to be at a reasonable price for Taiwan to buy it, otherwise Taiwan wont buy it or it will buy it at a small amount. This will probably lead to more F-16s being bought, that is if the Americans allow it. If neither is available I think Taiwan should just upgrade their AIDC F-CK 1 A/Bs to the new C/D standards and work on the planned next generation fighter that AIDC wants to produce. This will offer the Taiwanese military a cheaper option, better weapons compatibility, and will create jobs for the struggling Taiwanese economy.

kliu0

If the French want the Rafale to be exported it has to be at a reasonable price otherwise the Taiwanese government wont buy it or it will at small amounts. This could lead to higher demand in F-16 procurements. If both dont work out, I think that the Taiwanese government should just upgrade the AIDC F-CK 1 A/Bs to the new C/Ds. This is a cheaper option, and provides Taiwan with a quicker boost in their air force. And possibly they could listen to what AIDC wants right now which is to continue the development of their own 5th generation fighter. If the Taiwanese military does pick the Indigenous option, its going to advance their defence industry and they wont have to rely on the US that much for arms procurement.

Skywatcher

The French will probably insist on hiking up the price to 'compensate for deteriorated relations with the mainland."

If they're smart, they'll make it up after the fact with cost overruns and like.

Autumn Child

I doubt that France will sell military hardware to Taiwan again considering the risk of losing Mainland business opportunity. I understand why the US sells F-16s but what can the French get from selling military hardware other than short term money? or is this some kind of pressure that Taiwan put on the US to sell more advance weapons?

FuManChu

Long-term maintenance contracts? Training? Look at the Saudi Typhoon deal. Something like £4.4 billion up front for the planes but the project is expected to be way more than that over its life. Other deals that could be tagged on too.

By all accounts the talks are happening, so that's not likely - the French don't want to help the Taiwanese. Plus the newspapers that have reported this are not allied to the Taiwanese government.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

kliu0

If the French want the Rafale to be exported it has to be at a reasonable price otherwise the Taiwanese government wont buy it or it will at small amounts. This could lead to higher demand in F-16 procurements. If both dont work out, I think that the Taiwanese government should just upgrade the AIDC F-CK 1 A/Bs to the new C/Ds. This is a cheaper option, and provides Taiwan with a quicker boost in their air force. And possibly they could listen to what AIDC wants right now which is to continue the development of their own 5th generation fighter. If the Taiwanese military does pick the Indigenous option, its going to advance their defence industry and they wont have to rely on the US that much for arms procurement.

The French are wanting to make money in the long run, anyway I cant seem to post my other replies for some reason.

If the French want the Rafale to be exported it has to be at a reasonable price otherwise the Taiwanese government wont buy it or it will at small amounts. This could lead to higher demand in F-16 procurements. If both dont work out, I think that the Taiwanese government should just upgrade the AIDC F-CK 1 A/Bs to the new C/Ds. This is a cheaper option, and provides Taiwan with a quicker boost in their air force. And possibly they could listen to what AIDC wants right now which is to continue the development of their own 5th generation fighter. If the Taiwanese military does pick the Indigenous option, its going to advance their defence industry and they wont have to rely on the US that much for arms procurement.

unknauthr

In testimony before the US Congress this past week, Admiral Timothy Keating - head of the US Pacific Command - called for the United States to support improvements in Taiwan's self-defense capabilities:

"Sustaining stability across the Taiwan Strait is a top priority. Vital to preserving this current stability is a credible Taiwan self-defense capability."

This may be an early indication that, with the recent election in Taiwan, the US is finally willing to consider additional arms packages (such as the long awaited buy of additional F-16s) for Taiwan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/polit...080311?sp=true

Finn McCool

With CSB on his way out in Taiwan the US (and France) should be more willing to sell arms.

Between the Rafale and the F-16, what would be the better choice?
With the Rafale you get an undoubtedly better air superiority fighter, able to tangle with and beat the best the PLAAF can throw at it. But it is expensive and adds a new fighter to Taiwan's inventory which complicates logistics. Also Taiwan would need to purchase Exocets with them in order to be AShm capable.

With the F-16 you have more uniformity in spare parts and logistical issues. F-16s are also cheaper and Taiwan would be able to purchase quite a few more of them for the same amount. But with that decreased price comes decreased air-to-air capability and the F-16, although upgraded, is still a 4th gen aircraft, so it is becoming obsolete.

I'm sure they would like to have both, a hi-lo mix but that isn't an option.

__________________
Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

unknauthr

I agree - the Rafale is clearly the superior all-around platform. My prediction, however, is that it will come down to a decision based on cost.

The Rafale has lost every international sales contest where it was in direct competition with an American contendor. It lost to the F-15 in Korea and Singapore, and it lost to the F-16 most recently in Morocco (in what was supposed to be a "done" deal). The only foreign buyer that France is likely to see right now is Libya - which is not being offered US-built warplanes as an option. I wouldn't expect Taiwan to be an exception to this trend.

FuManChu

The thing is that Taiwan is in a unique situation. Although it can use the prospect of the US sale to its advantage in pushing the French to offer a better deal, the Rafale is something it can't get from the Americans at the moment.

Morocco went for the F-16 because it doesn't actually need something like the Rafale right now - so it could go for price. As for South Korea it had the option of the Strike Eagle, as well as other planes. If the Rafale had to face off against the Strike Eagle maybe it would lose, but it has a better chance against the F-16 as Taiwan won't have the opportunity to get another 4.5 generation plane for the foreseeable future.

So it comes down to price. If the French offer the Rafale as part of a reasonable deal, maybe with other sales attached to it, I think the Taiwanese would go for it. If they try to push Taiwan too far they would go with the F-16.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

Finn McCool

This is very true. The Taiwanese would probably like to see an upgrade package for their Mirage 2000s. That might be a perk France could offer.

Also the Rafale is able to use Taiwan's sizeable stock of MICAs, and thus it is not subject to the lack of AMRAAMs that the F-16s face (Although they might have recieved a shipment that solved that issue, is that true?).

__________________
Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

adeptitus

The Rafael is a fine plane, but with rising value of Euros, the unit cost is going to be pretty high. I'm not sure what the chance of France exporting new fighters to TW is, but have heard that they'd prefer to pay back the "scandal money" in goods and services instead of cash. Perhaps an upgrade program to ROCAF's Mirage 2000-5's to Mk.2 standard?

Most likely, we'd probably see more F-16 C/D's.