SinoDefence Forum

Roger604

According to their simulation, the Taiwan forces were able to establish air superiority and sink the PLA as they try to cross the strait in merchant ships.


How realistic is this? How many troop transports does China have? How many have they ordered from Russia?

FriedRiceNSpice

This is absurd!!! How could the Taiwanese even "simulate," the effectiveness of Chinese joint-service operations? Its not like anyone in the world other than the top PLA officials would know of the capabilities of the PLA to conduct such operations. Yes, foreigners know the manpower of the PLA and can gauge the equipment and technology of the PLA's forces without much difficulty, and even have a some sort of picture of the PLA's training, discipline, and leadership, but no one can predict the PLA's actual combat effectiveness. The combat effectiveness of any army relies on a myriad host of factors, many of them indeterminable until the force is put into actual combat, and many more of them kept confidential and unreleased to the public/foreign nations.

renmin

This is rediculous. No one can simulate or predict a country's military moves. It is no video game. On the battle field, anything could happen. And just to add in, if America does not step in, China could take Taiwan in one day. Taiwan is one measly provence. NO one knows a country's military tactics. You can predict, but those predictions are most likely wrong.

Finn McCool

I agree, but what and Fried Rice are saying could just as eaisily go the other way. Intangibles could work in favor of the Taiwanese too. Look at the Polish-Soviet War. The measely Polish army was able to defeat the entire Red Army, hardened by years of war in WWI and the Russian Civil War. (The war happened in 1920. Its like that movie "Miracle" about the Olympic Hockey team except with war. So I guess there's a pretty big difference )

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FriedRiceNSpice

True. By the way, I just want to clear up by saying nowhere did I say the Taiwanese had no chance, and that Taiwanese military capabilities and effectivenss were certain. Since the capabilities of neither side can be fully ascertained, an outcome of war between the two parties cannot be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. However, I beleive that the capabilities and effectiveness of the PLA are far more dificult to gauge than that of the Taiwanese defense forces. My reasoning being 1) The PLA maintains a veil of secrecy over their developments 2) Since the ROC forces recieve US aid, the US DoD does know quite a lot about ROC military capabilties 3) The PLA's military is built along different lines from Western ones with different equipment with untested capabilities, while the ROC military is arguably built along Western lines and 4) the ROC defense spending is known, while PLA spending has been estimated from anywhere between $40 billion and $90 billion anually.
But yes, intangibles do apply to any military, even ones whose capabilties are believed to be known. The Soviet-Polish War was a good example, as is the Soviet-Finnish War.

Gollevainen

well polish-soviet war isent good example of anything else than that If big country is in middle of civil war, it cannot be that effectrive. And if you add to the result the ego-class between Strotski and Stalin daiting those days you cannot expect much triumph for the soviet side. Our winter war is more closer to be an example for Taiwanese. And it's agood example how small country with inadequate weaponry can beat numerically and qualitity superior country.

Your reasonigs about PRCs advantages are bit weird as many of your statements have nothing to do with the actual warfighting. Most ridicilous was the statement that Taiwanese relying on western doctrines and tactics would somehow be it's downside? And this is based on what?

Taiwan have one big avantage to the situation where we where back in 1939...It's an island. So it means that PLA must rely on it's ability to gain full naval and air superioty to order to perform massive enough landing operation to takeover the island. But PLANs amphipious capapility is not even near the strenght required for such a massive landing operations. It still relyes on old generation of peaching tank landing ships that arent very usefull against defended coastlines....and in maxium these units cannot transfer even single divison whit its all personel and equipment to shore. What china needs is modern LDHs and LPHs whit fast howercraft LCVPs and more impressive helicopter-moving units. Transportion is the most difficoult military operation inspite its 'uncool' appearance. Its when the troops are most defendless and unoperative and perhaps only US whit its all allies can actually invade other countryes (whit world class military, like Taiwan has) by seaborne attack.

....and you forget that Taiwan has these robot-killer-satelites to shoot down nazi-commies missiles and play around whit its mafia led governmaent that wants to massacare whole taiwanese population

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isthvan

First of all that was only military exercise… They tray to simulate opponent based on intelligence they have about opponents capabilities and tactics which opponent could use… Naturally it is a PR work too…That’s why PLAN exercises look like ww1 battleships in parade formation… It joust look good on TV ;-)…

Secondly I believe that if anyone has slightest idea about true Chinese capabilities it is Taiwan… Naturally that’s work the other way too… You have to look what your opponent is doing and I believe that Taiwanese intelligence agencies are as good as Chinese are…

Thirdly why is everybody disregarding fact that Taiwan still has armed forces…? And they really aren’t that bad…
Air force is pretty modern and they are modernizing some of assets… It may be not big as PLAAF but in term of modern equipment they really don’t stand so bad… Plus they have modern air defenses and that air defenses are concentrated in small area… Anybody remembers US experience in SAM walleye?
And navy is one of the best in Asia… Kidd’s, O.H. Perry’s, La Fayette’s, Knox and old Gearings and FACs… They have more modern ships then PLAN and nobody is even considering Taiwanese coastal defenses … Taiwan could alone weaken PLAN to extent were USN would have no problems dealing with what would PLAN be left with…
Army is small but they have to withstand limited invasion force for long enough time to US help comes… It’s not like China can deliver Normandy stile invasion force to Taiwanese beeches…

Gollevainen

Thats what I have wondered ever since I joined the forum...
Kids are more familiar whit computer games where you can have better things than your opponent and as the computer does the fighting, offcourse the one whit more and better things wins as the computer inteligence automaticly just counts the pros and cons and makes decissions based on that.

And these kids then comes to military forums and automaticly assume that real life and real combat works that ways as only wars they are familiar are the TV events of US kicking some third world ass in prime time, where things seems to work like in Computer games

But in the end, that has really little to do whit reality and expecially in imaginary 'what if' match ups between two non-superpower nations whit armed forces.

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The_Zergling

Hmm. I'm not sure if we've been reading the same article. I read several in Traditional Chinese that said different stuff... for example, here's one article I found that seems to be a little different from what you've been reading.

http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2006/.../today-fo1.htm
自由時報2006年4月30日

兵推凸槌 我指揮中斷 共軍趁隙登陸

〔記者許紹軒／台北報導〕「天哪，老共都打過來了，我們的指揮防衛系統、相互聯繫竟然出現空檔，讓共軍登陸 成功」，一位軍方高層官員自曝內幕，指漢光演習驗證出現軍方防衛上的重大漏洞，國防部長李傑要求軍方必須立 刻解決。

軍方高層表示，在上週剛結束的漢光廿二號電腦兵棋推演中，防衛軍前三天打出好成績，不但海上重創攻擊軍的船 團，還迫使其放棄登陸北部的意圖，不料就在此時，參謀本部與第六軍團的聯繫出現中斷，讓攻擊軍於第四天凌晨 在北部成功趁隙上岸並沿陽金公路進攻台北，旋即展開首都衛戍作戰，第五天中午在首都即將失守前，軍方宣布停 止推演。

由於情節發展相當戲劇化，防衛軍形同「只打半場好仗」，國防部長李傑對於聯繫中斷情況非常重視，要求立刻檢 討解決。

將領說，推演到了第三天，南京軍區攻擊軍登陸船團主力在發航前往台灣的途中，遭到由四艘紀德級艦為核心組成 的海軍艦隊截擊，戰損比率高達廿五％，也因而讓攻擊軍放棄原本登陸北部的企圖，脫離我軍觀通範圍，防衛軍研 判攻擊軍主力可能轉往中部上岸。

由於獲得勝利，防衛軍心防上有些鬆懈，第三天夜裡沒有特別注意戰況，沒想到攻擊軍主力船團獲得濟南軍區的增 援，回到北部海域發動奇襲，在台北縣淡水到金山一帶海岸強行登陸，等到防衛軍發現遭到攻擊時，攻擊軍快速單 位已經沿陽金公路，計畫越過山區直取台北。

參謀本部與第六軍團都遭到奇襲，第四天一整天都在反擊，連負責台北首都衛戍的憲兵部隊都開往陽明山阻擊，但 因上岸攻擊軍數量太龐大並擁有空優，第五天戰事發展到北市陽明山山腳下後，便宣布停止戰鬥。


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輕裝後備部隊 驍勇善戰

〔記者許紹軒／台北報導〕據了解，儘管今年漢光演習兵推結果還是讓攻擊軍上岸，不過陸軍在反空降作戰部署良 好，短時間內殲滅攻擊軍空降兵，遏止其在台灣可能造成的重大危害，而中南部作戰區因裝甲旅抽調北上，僅靠輕 裝後備部隊與在中南部登陸的攻擊軍部隊作戰，戰果不俗。

據了解，在推演中，中南部作戰區的重裝甲部隊都北上增援，打擊部隊只剩下機械化步兵旅，以及為數眾多、以輕 裝步兵為主的後備部隊，中南部仍要面臨攻擊軍進行牽制而實施登陸作戰，在缺乏重裝甲部隊掃蕩情況下，機步旅 很快就因受到空中與登陸部隊的攻擊而消耗殆盡，其中十軍團甚至只剩下一個連。

不過，輕裝後備旅抵抗登陸部隊仍有相當效果，雖然無法完全遏止攻擊軍的進展，但已經達到延緩其擴張的目的， 戰果相當不俗。


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紀德艦擋關 重創敵船

〔記者許紹軒／台北報導〕據指出，海軍紀德級艦在今年漢光演習兵棋推演獲得高度肯定，除了增加台海防衛作戰 縱深之外，並可以獨立在遠海執行任務，今年四艘紀德級艦都部署在北部海域，也是造成攻擊軍登陸船團重創的緣 故。

據指出，四艘紀德艦戰隊都在北部完成部署，除了防空能力增強之外，紀德級艦所擁有的指揮管制能力，能夠獨立 作業並大大地減輕陸地指管的壓力，由於空軍戰力保存得當，仍能提供艦隊空中掩護，對海軍艦隊在北部海域截擊 作戰有極大助益。

這次海軍採取冒險的戰術，將原本南北各二艘分佈平均的紀德級艦，在最後關頭全部調到北部海域，集中大部分兵 力與登陸船團決戰，雖然間接導致中南部作戰區無力抵抗攻擊軍的牽制性登陸作戰，但重創登陸船團的戰果，卻也 一度瓦解其作戰意圖。

Cross posted from another forum...

Quick version: ROC Army screw up. Taipei was under PLA invading force's threat when the exercise ended.

PLAN landing force divided into 2, north and south. The north invading force was beating back by ROCN's special task force of 4 Kidd DDGs, and forced the landing force to suffer 25% damages. But the ROCN lost contact with the beaten PLAN landing force, which was retreating toward ML. That certain landing force received re-enforcement and tried to land on northern Taiwan again on the 4th day of the exercise.

In the same time, Taiwan's GSHQ lost contact with the ROC Army 6th Army Corp, which was in charge of defnding northern Taiwan, including Taipei. The invading PLA force able to land on northern Taiwan and started heading toward Taipei, and managed to attack 6th Army Corp's HQ and GSHQ itself. The exercise ended as ROC Army MP units guarding Taipei were all threw into the front line. At that time, PLA invasion force managed to land in large number, and enjoy control fo the air over Taiwan.

The tank/armor units wise, all were rushed to northern Taiwan, which left central and southern Taiwan with only mech inf(regular) and light infantry(reserve) units. 10th Army Corp were pretty much wiped out, without armor support, only the huge reservist units(called up) tried to help and held.

Navy wise, the 4 Kidd were grouped together and sent north to stop one of the invading force, which was different than the split 4 Kidds into 2 task forces to guard north and south of Taiwan. Also, ROCAF preserved enough fighter to provide air cover for the task force. But the ROCN wasn't able to stop the PLAN invasion in the south.

There are several other articles if you're interested...



http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/

War simulations reveal communication problem 2006-05-01

BREAKDOWN:

According to a media report, a failure to communicate contributed to the military's failure to repel Chinese forces during a computerized war game
The Chinese military was able to land in the northern part of the country during computerized war game simulations due to a disconnect between the command center and the army, a media report said yesterday.

The annual Han Kuang computer exercise took place from April 17 to April 22. According to a report in the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times' sister newspaper), the military did well in a sea battle in the Taiwan Strait. But because of a breakdown in communication between the command center and the the Sixth Army, which is in charge of ground defense in the north, the Chinese ground troops were able to reach land and march to Taipei.

The report quoted a Ministry of National Defense official as saying that "during the third day of the simulation, Chinese vessels crossing the Taiwan Strait were under fierce attack from the navy's four Kidd Class destroyers." The destroyers helped to repel 25 percent of the enemy's invading force before it could reach the northern shores, and the attackers were forced to make for shores further south, the report said.

However, by the night of the third day, the frustrated Chinese invading force suddenly turned its attention to the north once more after gaining support from further vessels. Troops then successfully landed on the shores between Tamsui (淡水) and Chinsan Township (金山), the report said.

Since the command center failed to inform the Sixth Army of the landing in a timely manner, the division was unable to block them in time, according to the report.

The report said the Chinese troops then swiftly advanced along the Yangjin Highway (陽金公路) toward Taipei. Although troops stationed in Taipei moved to the Yangmingshan area in an attempt to halt the Chinese advance, they failed because they were outnumbered and the Chinese were covered by air support, the report said.

The ministry announced the end of the war games when Chinese troops reached Taipei, the report added.

The report said the ministry considered the communication breakdown a serious flaw and had asked the military to improve its channels of communication.

The report added that the four Kidd Class destroyers were regarded as making a good contribution in the simulation. The navy initially deployed two of the destroyers in the south and two in the north. But when Chinese ships attempted to approach the north, the navy made a bold decision to deploy all four destroyers in the waters off the northern part of the country. The move paid off as the destroyers blocked the invading force from approaching Taipei.


So basically I'm not sure if we're talking about the same exercise. Either that or someone really screwed up on reporting the story.

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Shingy

Just thought i would post this considering no one else did, but is this about the same thing? or is this a different wargame all together? It seems it backs up what The_Zergling posted.

FuManChu

It is the same exercise, but it has been reported on in different ways or some parts have been focused upon at the expense of others.

What happened was that the Taiwanese defence forces did a good job in holding off the initial Chinese assaults, but due to some sort of miscommunication/lack of communication between the central command and divisions, the south of Taiwan was left vulnerable, with only lightly-equipped divisions able to respond. As a result the PLA was able to make a beach-head and it went from there.

So in a nutshell, the Taiwanese defence forces performed well but a lack of co-ordination at a crucial stage allowed the Chinese to pull off a come-back. I think these war games are useful in stressing that communication is critical and may need to be improved.

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petty officer1

That day I was watching CCTV 4(it is a chinese channel in US).

then this program come up about this excersice taiwan just had. (Han Kuang)

As all you guys know, my chinese is very limited, so i call my mom and help to understand what is going on

The reporter even invited a chinese 4 star general to the show.

2 main point he stated

those computer simulation can only served as reference. no more then that. because both side don't know exactly the real capbility of some certain weopan and tactic they are going to use.

Then use this simultaion taiwan government can show the taiwan public that PLA will win in some way, and then cast fear in to the public, SO they can pass the law about buying more weopan from US. (like more destoryer, F-16, Patriot 3 missles)

The excersice serves as a double edge sword, one a military reference and a political tool.

renmin

Just what DO YOU MEAN BY NAZI-COMMIES?!
Taiwan has no killer satilite that can shoot down missiles. The only country that has a reliable anti-missile defense is RUSSIA. NO such technology exists! The Star Wars project was a big flook. Their is no sattilite in the world yet that can destroy missiles.

Gollevainen

You missed the point, that was a humoristic lightening in the end...those phrases are from the legendary Vincelee (the true himself) from the crazydays of ezboard...all old members surely remembers it and to new ones, well it's a cruical part of our inside humour...So don't take it seriously, it was only a joke...

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MIGleader

HAHAHA
good one!!! Taiwan shall destroy china because chinas is only a big thailand


Really, i think the DPP is getting kinda desperate to pass it;s super budget. These are the most hilarious simulation ever.
i guess the DPP's also trying to convince the congress that the kidds wernt a waste of money. Kind of hard though, these ships are 25 years old.

The kidds anti-ship missles do not have the range to hit Chinese warships if the chinese warships decided to stay out of range. But Chinese warships can fire well across the strait and sink the kidds.

in this report, i find zero mention of the PLAAF. It appears the PLAN had merely put together a couple destroyers and sent them sailing with merchant vessels.

Everything in the taiwanese strategy appears to center around the kidds. The kidds do not have aegis, therfor are EXTREMELY vulnerable to shore/airborne missles. If the pathetic chinese force simulated by taiwan in the excercice could sink one kidd, the real chiense force must be able to sink a 100.

Mr. Pennis Blair was probably piad by the taiwanese merely to put some american name and credibility into the taiwanese report.

This is my favorite quote. Wouldnt it be nice if you could know how capable an enemy was simply by staging your own wargame and winning?

Btw, rodger, china has 25 large LSTs, and 10 confirmed medium sized ones. It has coupl hundred small but nevertheless capable landing craft. Plus theres the recent Zubr order.