SinoDefence Forum

edieboy777

Look, I'm not doubting you personally utelore, but do you have any sources for these statements of apparently stunning victories by the Georgians? I'm also curious about this.

alopes

yes, by your account, Utelore, Russia will have to quit.
But i don´t believe that Russia will accept easily this defeat without charging a big price from Georgia.
If Russia will want to stand with some moral strenght them they will bombard

Georgia to their ashes as Israel did with Lebanon and as Georgians are doing with the South Ossetians.
Russia can´t let this aggression against South Ossetia to be unpunished.

Baibar of Jalat

I think Utelore is setting himself for a fall by predicting Russia will be defeated soon. Unless he thinks Georgia is gonna fight a guerrila war?

crazyinsane105

And we all know what happened to the Chechnyans in the end....the Georgians can do as they want, yet the Russians are going to win by their overwhelming superior firepower and numbers. The Russians are not like Israel or the US or most other Western countries, they could care less about the casualties inflicted upon their own troops or any casualty they inflict upon anybody else (be it civilian or military). This is simply a border skirmish right now, and a full blown war will see the use of just about everything non-WMD in Russia's arsenal, and that is what I call nasty....

Roger604

I think both sides figured that a ceasefire will be called once the conflict elevates to the strategic bombing stage. The reason is that when strategic bombing takes place, the US will have no choice but to become more actively involved. And they don't really want to start a much bigger conflict, so they must negotiate.

Georgia figured that they will take as much territory as possible prior to this happening, this will leave them will greater control over the separatist regions and any ceasefire will mean the Russians don't get to move their military in under the guise of "peacekeeping."

The Russians are going to push as far as possible before strategic bombing begins, leaving Georgia devoid of any further NATO influence and planting it firmly under Russia's sphere of influence.

The question is: what if a ceasefire cannot be negotiated and strategic bombing continues with US forces in the region, unable to leave with fighters controlling airspace?

Finn McCool

Utelore, I I don't know where you're getting your information. Therefore I can't give it much credence.

However you did mention a drive on the town of Gori. This would be concurrent with an attack on Tiblisi because Gori is the first major road junction. However the Russians would have to cross Greater Liakhvi River, which would entail capturing on of the three bridges across entact, although I can't tell much from Google Earth. One bridge is on the northern outskirst of Gori, in the probable path of Russian advance (on the road from the South Ossetian border), and the other two are in the city center. If I were the Georgian commander I would blow the northern bridge and rig the others to blow then fight it out in Gori.

__________________
Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

FriedRiceNSpice

Ranger training is good... but GRU/Spetnaz training is not in any way inferior. The Russians have guided artillery munitions in FAR greater numbers... they have aircraft dropping FAR more guided bombs than Gerogian artillery batteries can deliver... and the best tank in the Georgian army is a low-end T-72... similiar to wat the Iraqis had while the Russians have T-80s, FAR more advanced T-72s and T-64s in FAR superior numbers.

Finn McCool

Someone mentioned an attack in the direction of Porti on the Black Sea coast, Georgia's main oil transhipment point. Any ground assault from the direction of Abkhazia (the likely Russian axis of advance) would be difficult, Port is nestled on a nice peninsula protected on three sides from attack by the ocean and a river mouth. It would be a difficult attack.

Edit: Actually its mainly on an island. There is a bridge I believe (obscured by clouds on Google Earth) but still, capturing the city would be difficult for any force? The Russians would have to cross another river to get there, several miles to the north.

__________________
Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

Vlad Plasmius

According to several reports I've read Georgian troops are heading towards Abkhazia with Abkhazia building up troops on its border. Abkhazia's foreign minister has already said they may open a second front against Georgia.

A flare-up in Abkhazia seems to be only a matter of time since, after all, Abkhazia has long warned that it step into the fray should Georgia take action against South Ossetia.

As far as the extent of this conflict I would think Russia would be engaging in a limited war focusing primarily on Abkhazia and South Ossetia leaving the rest of Georgia to the air force and special forces. However, if utelore is correct an assault on Tblisi seems imminent. If Armenia is seen corroborating with Russia against Georgia in any way I wouldn't be surprised if that leads to a conflagration with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. There was a military clash a few months back there.

I feel if the U.S. gets involved it will be to deter Russia and protect Saakashvili's government. They'll likely draw a red line past Abkhazia and South Ossetia, possibly in secret communications, that if Russia invades Georgia proper the U.S. will have no choice but to respond. One way of backing this up would be with an aircraft carrier group and amphibious strike group being sent to the Black Sea. That way Russia would know the stakes. The U.S. could simply deploy U.S. troops in Tblisi and warn against taking the capital but either way any American involvement I believe will be aimed at deterrence as opposed to open conflict. It is not in the interests of the United States to get into a war with Russia.

Russia will have no interest to get into such a conflict either so that most likely means Russia will back down from deposing Saakashvili, but retain control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia possibly formally recognizing their independence.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia decides to return the favor with a similar stand-off over Iran.

This could also seriously sour the relations between Russia and China too. Many Chinese people will not be happy that Russia is basically ruining their moment in the sun.

Finn McCool

That Georgian troop move is probably precautionary. I doubt they would be foolish enough to open a second front on their own accord.

Azerbaijan has been absolutely itching for the chance to attack Armenia. All the signals coming out of Baku indicate a government that wants war. They've been building up troops and weapons. They could use this as a pretext. The US has been getting more and more involved with the Azeri government and might be able to pull strings there.
I wholeheartedly agree. I think your analysis here is spot on. Saakashvili has majorly miscalculated. We cannot save him from his own mistakes. He might have lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia for a long time. But we can protect the rest of Georgia.

This situation ruins negotiations on Iran and North Korea.

GOOGLE EARTH UPDATE: The military airbase in Tiblisi as hardened shelters, so the Georgian planes aren't totally exposed. Looks like the have pretty good capacity.

__________________
Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

SampanViking

I really don't see that happening or the US deploying forces into Georgia, just way to dangerous and not enough can get there to make any real difference.

Why should Russia stop now? so that it can see Georgia fast tracked into NATO? Thats just crazy logic. Georgia has handed Russia a gift and Russia has said thank you. They have no reason to stop until they achieve their final objective, the return of Georgia to the Russian fold.

At the moment this is a Russian vs Georgian conflict, if however outside forces try to participate it could very quickly escalate into a US/NATO CIS/SCO conflict and nobody would be prepared to allow that to happen.

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utelore

not setting myself up for a fall. the facts are that a large scale georgian attack has taken most of s. ossetia. There are now reports of russian paratroops backed by tanks moving into the ossetian capital under heavy fire.

from a military standpoint its up to how georgia fights the war. right now they are mobilizing the reserves and heavy fighting continues as I type. Russia also appears to be going head long into this. Simpley put whats going on in Georgia/ossetia is moving faster than the information coming out of the area do to poor reporting.

Fact are that very heavy fighting can be heard by AP with mixed reports of who is were. This is high intensty war and very fluid. the problem with the russian report of its paratroop entering s.ossentian capital is that the Georgian MLRS/Arty is still operating at will against all of s. ossetia.

I think things will pick up in the morning as Georgian forces counter attacks the russians. I listened to Interfax and russia news and it was total pravda with late info and opinion.

SampanViking

Xinhua are reporting that Russian forces have taken control of the S Ossetia Capitol and are forcing Georgian forces out of the area.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_9090427.htm

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Finn McCool

Yeah I've read that the Russians have surpressed the Georgian MLRS and SPG arty around Gori with air strikes.

__________________
Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

RedMercury

Why would China blame Russia when it is far more convenient to blame Georgia for the debatable casus beli? The olympics might just be a perfect time for a quick dirty war, while no one is looking.