Revolutionary Guard member caught smuggling weapons into Afhganistan

ISAF has now said that he doesn't appear to be a member of the Revolutionary Guard.

A little revenge for supplying Iranian separatists and sending in special forces?

Originally Posted by RedMercury

A little revenge for supplying Iranian separatists and sending in special forces?

Iran has been supplying the Taleban for years, it's just that catching a member of the Republican Guard doing it would have been significant given their elite status.

Originally Posted by Mr T

Iran has been supplying the Taleban for years, it's just that catching a member of the Republican Guard doing it would have been significant given their elite status.

I think you misread the situation. If Iran REALLY wanted to arm the Taliban, there'd be a lot more evidence of it, and the US would talk about it a lot more. American officials rarely talk about Iranian involvement with the Taliban and rarely come out and directly say "Iran arms and supports the Taliban". Contrast that with the situation in Iraq a few years ago, when American officials regularly and in no uncertain terms accused the Revolutionary Guard (not Republican, that's Saddam) and Al Quds Force of arming and training and funding various Shiite militias. And NATO troop deployments along the Iranian border are quite sparse (actions speak louder than words). I mean hell they put the Italians in charge of the area around Herat, which is the nexus of Iranian influence in Afghanistan, and if there's one thing we know about military history, it's don't leave something up to the Italians . Alright I jest, but there are only like 2000 or something troops in the areas where Iranian influence is most prevalent, so NATO probably doesn't see stopping weapons coming in from Iran as a priority. Furthermore if Iran really was making a concerted effort to cause American casualties without getting in too much trouble we'd be seeing a lot more Explosively formed penetrator IEDs than they are seeing now in the 'stan. Right now the vast majority are fertilizer-pressure plate bombs from what I understand.

Secondly, don't underestimate how wary Iran is of the Taliban. They are old enemies. In Iraq, Iran had reliable proxies to arm that it could control like dogs on a leash. The Taliban has no intention of being an Iranian dog.

Here's my read on the situation. The Taliban and Iran are wary of each other but they realize that their strategic interest align. Iran also has some very powerful connections within the Afghan government and amongst the old Northern Alliance warlords (Tajiks mostly, the Iranians are always more comfortable dealing with them than with the Pashtun Taliban, Tajiks are basically Persians). Iran wants to cause maximum headaches for the US but still have good options for the post-NATO withdrawal power struggle, so they're maintain some contacts with the Taliban and probably providing them with a few goodies just to keep the relationship open. But I don't think they're arming them at the same level they armed the proxies in Iraq, and I certainly don't think they're arming them to the level they could if they wanted to go all out.

Yeah, I guess Iran has some kind of observers in A-stan just to in the loop.
The much bigger problem is probably the blurry connection on the other side between the various Taleban groups and the pakistani ISI. That relationship is long running and rather deep. And sometimes still viewed with a strategic value on the ISI side.

A week ago, the ISI detained a top Haqqani network commander. A leader of a group that Pakistan normllly sees as good Taleban. I wonder what to make of this. Just a show of force ment for NATO, or do they actually intent a few friends there to slow down a little with their actions.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...etains_top.php

Pakistan detains top Haqqani Network leader
By Bill Roggio - December 24, 2010

Pakistani security forces have detained a top commander of the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani Network as he was returning from Saudi Arabia to the network's headquarters.
Nasiruddin Haqqani, the son of Jalaluddin, the patriarch of the Haqqani Network, was detained along with a Haqqani Network leader known as Mullah Muhammad Jan and three others, according to Newsweek. Nasiruddin was captured as he was traveling by car from Peshawar to Miramshah in North Waziristan, the headquarters of the Haqqani Network. [...]
Newsweek reported that "it is unlikely that US intelligence will get access to Nasiruddin, largely because he could reveal just how closely the Haqqanis are linked to the ISI and other Pakistan intelligence agencies."
US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal agreed, and stated that any access given to Nasiruddin would be closely monitored and scripted.
"By the time we get access to him, if that even happens, he'll be well prepped by the ISI," one intelligence official said. "The Haqqanis are as important to the ISI as the Lashkar-e-Taiba. I don't expect we'll get any meaningful intel from him." ...

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

I think you misread the situation. If Iran REALLY wanted to arm the Taliban, there'd be a lot more evidence of it, and the US would talk about it a lot more....

But I don't think they're arming them at the same level they armed the proxies in Iraq, and I certainly don't think they're arming them to the level they could if they wanted to go all out.

But you admit that Iran is supplying arms of a particular quantity that is more than a mere token gesture? Yes, it isn't showering them with every comfort they might want. But it's still happening to a degree.

To be honest any weapons finding their way across the border is as likely to be down to Private Enterprise as much as any official policy.

You also have to look at who is receiving the arms as Taliban is as overused as it often inaccurate. There is a Farsi speaking minority in the West of the country and I would guess that arms may well be being sold to them to help support Shia communities in the area.

Originally Posted by Scratch

Yeah, I guess Iran has some kind of observers in A-stan just to in the loop.
The much bigger problem is probably the blurry connection on the other side between the various Taleban groups and the pakistani ISI. That relationship is long running and rather deep. And sometimes still viewed with a strategic value on the ISI side.

A week ago, the ISI detained a top Haqqani network commander. A leader of a group that Pakistan normllly sees as good Taleban. I wonder what to make of this. Just a show of force ment for NATO, or do they actually intent a few friends there to slow down a little with their actions.

Pakistan detains top Haqqani Network leader - The Long War Journal

Naisruddin Haqqani, huh? Never heard of him. I have heard of Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is I believe the oldest sun of ol' Jalaluddin himself (Jalaluddin is just about one of the oldest mujahideen out there). Naisruddin must be a younger son. I don't know what the heck the ISI is up to, I don't think anyone does, including many of the people in the ISI.

To answer your question Mr. T my personal suspicion would be that there is some sort of mutually beneficial relationship between the Taliban and Iran. However I can't really say anything about what level it is at. And Sampan makes a good point; arms coming from Iran aren't necessarily coming from the government. That area of Afghanistan and Iran is filled with smugglers and rough types or all sorts. The Iranians can't control the border; drugs and weapons flow into Iran from Afghanistan too.

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

I don't know what the heck the ISI is up to, I don't think anyone does, including many of the people in the ISI.

Well, I guess there's some truth to the tale that the various Taleban factions are some kind of a military reserve / militia force to the ISI. Potentially as a trump card to play against India. Should Kashmir become hot again, the ISI could rely on Haqqanis and others to supply a network and know how for irregular warfare options. Or just to generally keep some influence throughout central asia. In that regard, I wonder how well connected groups like the Haqqani, Bahadar or Mehsud are in the region anyway.
That's at least what I've been reading once in a while, and it doesn't seem too far fetched for me, although, personally, I don't think such strategic thinking is wise.

Originally Posted by SampanViking

To be honest any weapons finding their way across the border is as likely to be down to Private Enterprise as much as any official policy.

You also have to look at who is receiving the arms as Taliban is as overused as it often inaccurate. There is a Farsi speaking minority in the West of the country and I would guess that arms may well be being sold to them to help support Shia communities in the area.

An excellent point!

A huge proportion, if not the vast majority, of weapons used by Mexican drug gangs originate in the USA. Yet do we see anyone suggesting that the US government is arming drug dealers?

Afghanistan, much like Mexico, is a drugs export world leader. That means they need routes and means to get the drugs out. It's such a simple thing to do to reverse the process and bring in arms the other way using those same smuggling routes.

Does anyone know how gun laws and gun ownership is like in Iran? If its anything like the US, then it would be a minor miracle if no Iranian arms ends up in 'stan.

Iran has little to gain from supplying advanced weapons to the Taliban. They are far better served saving that as a trump card they can threaten to play if the US or Israel attack its nuclear facilities.

Iran has some decent MANPADs as well as all sorts of HMG, shape charges, ATGMs and assorted weapons and equipment they would provide that would make the resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan far far deadlier to NATO and US forces than they are at present.

Iran must be maintaining spies in A'stan in order to slow down the flow of heroin over its border. Those spies might well also distribute weapons to win friends.