SinoDefence Forum

BLUEJACKET · 10-06-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spike

It is possible that SE Asia will regard Japan's militarization as a rational response to an irrational and nuclear North Korea.

N.Korea is very rational, in its own way.-
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HJ06Dg01.html

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

http://www.keia.org/2-Publications/2...ght-July06.pdf

http://www.keia.org/2-Publications/2...-October06.pdf

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.../06/ukorea.xml

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...100600158.html

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,218219,00.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HJ05Dg01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HJ05Dg02.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/02/wo...html?th&emc=th

North Korea says nuclear test successful

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/6172038.stm

BLUEJACKET · 12-29-2006

This is an interesting new article by a political & military analist about China, Taiwan, the Koreas, USA & Russia-
The_Zergling said (post #61):

Quote:

This is what I got out of it with online translation (slightly edited by me for grammar and words that didn't get translated)... a decent one, I'd say. I skipped the introduction and focused on the area talking about Taiwan. My notes are in red.

PEACE REUNION

The further existence of Taiwan as de facto independent state becomes intolerant for Beijing. China cannot apply for a role of a superstate if it is not capable to restore the sovereignty above a small rebellious province.

The peaceful unification of the island state, certainly, is more favourable to the Peoples Republic of China. It will instantly provide significant economic, financial, technological, and military power to to China, as well as growth in international prestige.

The plan of nonviolent actions concerning Taiwan is realized by Beijing in several directions. First, as "bait" the principle " one country - two systems ", with success used in case of with Hong Kong is kept. The PRC promises to apply it to Taiwan. Secondly, the Communist Party of China actively influences politics on island the island via the KMT (Taiwan's current opposition party, China-leaning). The KMT historically has considered itself the legitimate authority for "all China" and opposes independence for Taiwan. Certainly, today the KMT does not have opportunity to carry this out, but at the least it aspires to return to holding the reins of government in Taipei.

China uses a financial resource-propaganda of a handheld computer, but simultaneously turns to "the fifth column" Beijing on island. In particular, deputies from KMT in the Taiwan parliament have blocked arms sales from the United States for quite some time.

Thirdly, the Peoples Republic of China several years ago has opened access to its economy, including capital from the ROC. Taiwan's investments in the various enterprises of continental China have exceeded 100 billion dollars and has made the majority of the largest businessmen of the island hostages of policy of Beijing. Taiwan economically is actually already an integral part of the Peoples Republic of China. Over 70% of all investments and almost 40% of export of island business go here; more than 50% of the hi-tech Taiwanese goods are really made in "Communist" China.

Until recently, the People's liberation army of China had no opportunity for capture of Taiwan since its military - though possessing significant quantitative superiority - was inferior on almost on all quality indicators. But the technological gap has closed, and even the out-of-date equipment still gives the PRC an overwhelming advantage ("effect of weight" taking up defensive resources)

China has reached the absolute superiority in a class of heavy fighters and fighters-bombers: it now has almost three hundred J-11s and J-12s (Su-27 and Su-30). China has modern fighters such as the J-10 and new updates for machines of an older generation - up to 1000 J-7s and J-8s. In resistance, Taiwan can field fighters such as the F-16, "Мirage-2000" and "IDF" (all adding up to the little more than 300 units). If older aircraft are considered then the superiority of the PRC over Taiwan is more than tenfold. Beijing has reached a significant advantage regarding modern diesel submarines (12 constructed in Russia in 1998-2006 of submarines of projects 877 and 636). And on the general number of submarines the PLAN surpasses ROCN 15 times.

Taipei for today has no equivalent to the Russian-built Chinese destroyers of the project 956 and means of protection from "Mosquito" with which they are armed. Until recently a weak place of Navies China was antiaircraft defense, however a situation has changed, after the construction of two destroyers of the project 052С, armed ЗРК "Reef" (sea variant С-300).

At the same time the parliament of Taiwan blocks purchase in USA ЭМ of type "Arleigh Burke" with system "Aegis", i.e. here again China has the advantage. As a whole China surpasses Taiwan by 3 times in destroyers, in 2 times - in quantity of frigates, in 5 times - the quantity of fighting boats (including in 1.5 times - on rocket boats). Sharply increasing landing opportunities for China (both on the sea, and in air).

At the same time China has many more resources than the island state; it can buy and develop technology and much faster rates. In addition to the forementioned weaponary, the PRC has hundreds of operational tactical missiles aimed at Taiwan which can practically destroy the military and civil infrastructure of the island without reprisal. Without the help of Washington the situation becomes more and more problematic for Taipei.

10 years ago the USA was theoretically capable of providing protection or Taiwan against China at a nearly loss-free rate. Certain both today and in the near future, the American naval and air forces can prevent the PRC from invading the island, but with inevitable heavy losses. Thus the probability of armed participation on the part of the USA is sharpy reduced, and in view of the Iraq fiasco and problems aggravated in connection with it, claims of easy military success will be viewed skeptically and illusionary. If the management and population of Taiwan is convinced that Washington is not prepared to support the island militarily in an invasion, then capitulation from Taipei in front of Beijing even before physical battles is almost inevitable.

It is possible to assume that the critical period will be the autumn of 2008. The PRC will try to lead the Olympic Games in Beijing in all aspects, in which China will try to assume the new image of a new superstate. Then the presidential elections in the USA in which the present Republican administration will very likely be defeated (a reason for this would be overly aggressive foreign policy), and in general, war tends to be inconvenient for elections, especially one with China.
This would be the ideal situation for Beijing to present Taipei with an ultimatum demanding immediate unification. The probability is very high that it will be "one that is impossible to refuse". China will develop full-scale information-psychological warfare against the island, combining intimidation with the intrusion of missiles hitting it, and a full sea and air blockade. (This is a serious threat, considering Taiwan's high dependence on imports - in particular, on foodstuffs 90% and oil 100%) Taiwan will also be wooed with the advertising appeal of a new economic, political, military, and sports superstate. It is quite probable by that moment the KMT will control both the executive and legislative branch on the island, thus increasing the chances of capitulation.

It get's more interesting later, although the translation is pretty close, nothing beats the real thing! I found the translation tool (which left a lot to be desired- it needs more editing) and here is the rest of it:
Automatically translated text:

Quote:

:
AFTER-OLIMPIADA 2008?
Preparations for the reunification operations "on the part of China in recent times is becoming more pronounced. Thus, Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Sha Zukang about possible intervention by Washington in the conflict between Beijing and Taibeem in an interview with the British BBC Corporation in August 2006 said : "The population of China is six times more than the population in the United States. So let the Americans zatknutsa and sit quietly, so will be better for them. The United States is, the right to deal with internal issues so if not correct nose in the internal affairs of China ... The question is not how big Taiwan. We each centimetre Chinese land much more important than the lives of our soldiers. " The last sentence of the passage confirms that their losses are for China irrelevant in the event that if his government had decided to achieve the goal. Even more telling is the fact China in the spring of 2002 (less than a year after obtaining the right to the Olympic Games in Beijing) commissioned from Russia eight new Szczecin 636 project with a condition of supply until 2007. To fulfill the order have to be implemented at three shipyards plant (in St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod and Severodvinsk). Such haste shows that Beijing is planning to combat use of the Navy at the end of the decade, and the strike force will be underwater fleet (it will be used to blockade Taiwan, combat its Navy and, as appropriate, USA), which is the total number of nuclear torpedo and diesel fire already ranked first in the world. Russian debates delivered to China is not on track, as usual, on board a special dock for the purpose of maximum motoresursa. The crews of these boats China already has a presence in the Navy four previously purchased boats of the same type. In addition to submarinam last year, China ordered at 34 transport aircraft Il-76, This was a significant increase of amphibious PLA. However, thanks to our Uzbek partners (aircraft were to be built in Tashkent), the contract is safely down, so far, China has not received a single machine. In September 2006, Beijing has suddenly tightened information policy. The state agency Xinhua will approve all materials from foreign media of China, for the announcement in the PRC. Furthermore, the courts have ordered to tighten penalties for leaking information. Interestingly, the "innovation 'is not just the fact China, Macau and Hong Kong, but formally in Taiwan (as "part of China"). Xinhua "is the right to filter the information supplied not only inside China, but also outside the Podnebesnoy : Agency can now penalize financially and revoke the license to work in the country for journalists who have "wrong" of the PRC. Several previously banned Chinese watch Western television. The control of the Internet in China has been the world's most sophisticated. Since no internal turmoil in the country does not seem to be there and it is not anticipated such a sudden sharp tightening of the information is very strong evidence of preparations for war. NOT ONLY thoughts Taiwan seems to have passed the station Taiwan ", Beijing has decided to look further into the future. And in September, the 2006th held an unprecedented scale 10 day exercises Shenyang and Beijing military districts, the two most powerful of the seven existing IN PLA. These districts adjacent to the border with Russia : Shenyang opposes the Far East, and Beijing-Siberian military region of the Russian Federation. The manoeuvres shenyang
units were rapidly deployed at a distance of 1,000 km to the Beijing district, which joined the battle with the forces of the district. Sending them out on their own,as as well as by rail. And the exercises were fine skills to manoeuvre army compounds at large distances from the locations and improved management logistical support troops. Such a scenario is the preparation for war with Russia, the other options are simply not available. The offensive, rather than defensive. For Taiwan (as well as, perhaps, to the Southeast Asian Nations) that the concept of training is not an option. Extracting classic deep offensive operations on land, at mountain-stepppe areas targeted by China can only be Russia and Kazakhstan. There is no middle ground. Incidentally, the topography of the place where the training place of the battle ", the same zabaykalsk district, and 1,000 km, is precisely on the Russian-Chinese border on the river Argun to Baikal.
N.Korean SURPRISE Against this background, in early October, the North Korean nuclear testing. No surprise then they have not been followed up. In response Beijing proved almost more rigid than demarches Washington. Reduced supplies in the North Korea food and energy, and even the construction of the wall in the Chinese border attest to the fact that the response has not been naigranna. China has long and hard, but it was very noticeable, creates its sphere of influence in the world, Guided primarily by economic motives. The ideology virtually ignored. Neither communism, much less democracy Beijing will impose no intention, but Americanism is a good basis for friendship with him, but optional. China has been very active to penetrate the Middle East, Africa and even Latin America. To varying degrees's allies are or become Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus, etc. North Korea as part of the sphere of influence of China ever since the Korean War of 1950-1953 (many decades, the scope of Beijing and consisted of North Korea backed except Albania). In Beijing, it has always been seen as a buffer against the United States. The possibility of default "paranoid regime greatest Chinese leadership apparently never even considered, especially after the collapse of the USSR : Pyongyang simply has nowhere to go (in the 1960s and 1970s, he had to manoeuvre between Beijing and Moscow). On the basis of these considerations, in Beijing, it is possible to have decided that North Korea could simply annex, because the whole world was just get some relief from what is a powerful thing China has finally solved the problem of "mad Great Leader». Upset will be only South Korea with no access to reunite the country, but its views will simply ignored, particularly in a situation of the collapse of American hegemony. In early September, in the media, the report Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, with the argument that the ancient city state, Kija, and the Academy Parha in which today is North Korea, as well as a portion of South Korea's ancient served on the Podnebesnoy. This is a direct application for annexation. One month in the North Korea has nuclear tests. Afraid of the attacks America now entirely meaningless. The possibility of military action against North Korea in the United States was not considered before, it became apparent the Iraqi fiasco, since the minimum loss of the operation at 100,000 troops. On the other hand, the move to States by IDB North Korea is never, yes and no. Finally, more or less, it is clear that food and North Korea Washington is not, it is already too much spending on Iraq and Afghanistan. You can, of course, cause closer South Korea and Japan, but in Tokyo explosions caused the opposite effect - a convert Autodefensas in full Sun and began to establish their own nuclear weapons. It seems that the main objective of nuclear testing has been China. Pyongyang showed Beijing, which does not want to be annexed. By the way, the North Korean missile isn't likely to reach US, but can hit the main centres of the People's Republic of China (including the capital) even today. However, it is a not a proven fact that nuclear warheads can be fitted on North Korean missiles or on the aircraft.
Over the past since the test period, some media already revelations of a possible conspiracy between Beijing and Washington about direct occupation of the Chinese People Liberation Army (or the subsequent annexation, either with the establishment in Pyongyang is really a puppet regime). In America disappear North Korean problem, in addition, it can rely on, that Beijing at least temporarily delay the absorption of Taiwan. With regard to China, concerned, it will be a new step, a real participation in the global geopolitical game, and the actual increase in its territory, that would constitute a precedent. Conspiracy same for North Korea to become a part of a broad agreement between Washington and Beijing. In theory, China is, of course, free to operate on the basis of the test-shove ", the losers finished the USA permanently. However, Beijing is unlikely to do so in such a way as not to be responsible for the entire world. The PRC is likely to expect that the main enemy is broken right now, when China is not gained forces and the ability to replace States as the sole superpower. Therefore, in the near future it is likely to prefer to share with Washington sphere of influence, with the opportunity to speak from a position of strength. Not making it on public display, and thus America that the person "China is likely to receive more assignments. For example, Beijing may be a carte blanche for the annexation of the North Korea on condition it is said South Korea, from which American troops leave now. With regard to Taiwan, the issue could be resolved amicably : Washington quietly explain Taipei, we must surrender protect the island America is not, as Beijing promises to preserve the principle of "one country, two systems" for Taiwan, and Hong Kong at least age 50. From a military point of view, only the Chinese army to carry out the operation on the occupation of North Korea. It mobilizes millions of unemployed defence, which, for a couple of weeks, will be held prior to the 38th parallel. Million-druga their and the same Korean corpses to China is not a problem, and if America much less rasstroitsa. Japan has found a version of the least evil. Absolutely unacceptable that development only for South Korea (obviously) and for Russia. In the first place, why Russia as a precedent the return of ancestral lands Chinese ", as most of these lands, from the point of view of Beijing, Russia has (at least all of this territory, have been attributed to China Nerczynsky treaty in 1689, and about their best not to think). There is no illusion that the recently signed agreement on border withdraws territorial claims. Official historiography PRC continues to interpret Chinese relations as constant aggression of our country against Podnebesnoy and Urnov off of the ancestral lands ", namely, in reality, China has never owned. If the claims we really were removed the history books and scholarly works not drive to the head of Chinese attitude towards Russia as a "predator». Further strengthening China, especially in the light of the above exercises should not enjoy Moscow, and very disturbing. If the americano-kitayski conspiracy, it will be for Russia deadly option because it knows will be implemented by the Russian Federation. For Washington is a natural way to "give Russia» China that it "works" of its absorption and less wvazavalsa in the affairs of other parts of the world. MOMENT OF TRUTH However, Washington may prevail opposite trends and the United States move to a direct confrontation with China and the establishment around "sanitary cordon". However, the possibility of Russia great joy not quite : America can begin to work towards the that one of the most important elements of "curtain" became independent Siberian and Far Eastern Republic (admittedly that, if well-vlaugitsa in this scenario, it is easy, as a result of "strengthening the power vertical" Russia is weak now more than ever). For its part, Beijing in this situation is blatantly twisting the hands of Moscow, forcing by all available means in a military alliance, which we inevitably will be designated as besslovesnoho subordinate. Profitable for the entire Russia to the peaceful unification of Korea. Of course, under the aegis of Seoul, but with the provision of high-level posts to leaders of North Korea. The new country could not be neither uncritically proamerikan as until recently South Korea, or pathologically anti-American, like North Korea. And for historical and economic and geopolitical reasons united Korea would be considered as rivals and China, and Japan. And it is only with Russia, it was not the controversy, Moscow became its natural ally in the region. Korea would be a kind of eastern India, a country with a powerful military and economic potential, it is independent politically. Ideally, it would be a geopolitical axis Moscow-Delhi-Hanoi - Seoul (or Pyongyang, decide as a people of Korea). For us, the added value union with a united Korea would be the possibility of extending to its territory Trans and pipelines, and the involvement of the Far East and Siberia Korean workforce to replace Chinese. The Koreans are no worse, and do not threaten expansion (if only because that even in a united Korean people half of the Russian Federation). It is only Russia can serve as a mediator between Pyongyang and Seoul. First, it is truly interested in peace together Koreas, secondly, only Moscow now maintains normal relations with the two Koreas. There can be no doubt that if Russia really Yushchenko peaceful reunification of the country, Koreans did not forget to do so. Of course, such a mediation practice, it would be extremely difficult for a number of reasons. This will resist as Beijing, and Washington seeking to monopolize negotiations with Pyongyang. To counter Chinese influence will be particularly difficult, to this day Moscow so docile, in the wake of Beijing that is naprashiwatsa idea of "external management". In and of itself, the regime of Kim Jong Il is very heavy negotiating partner (sometimes think that it is impossible to speak). Finally, the domestic diplomacy has already demonstrated the ability to build a complex combination with a long-term view, instead we are seeing torpornae play trumpet and Americanism as an end in itself. There is no doubt that in Moscow to at least correct the issue. Overall, it is the Far Eastern situation will be to the moment of truth "for the United States, China and Russia. If America delivers Taiwan, and, what is more, goes from South Korea, it means the recognition of Washington formally rejected hegemony and shared it at least in part with Beijing. If China allows the door, it is impossible to take advantage of the weakening of the United States, or take any decisive steps in an easterly direction it demonstrates a lack of "big game" and can only Power regional level. If Russia simply bezwolno observer of events, then it is not subject and the object of world politics and in the foreseeable future will not be able to maintain even their own territory, Not to mention the spread of its influence outside.

http://translate.google.com/translate_t

BLUEJACKET · 01-10-2007

Quote:

..the neoconservatives believe that the use of nuclear weapons against Iran would force Muslims to realize that they have no recourse but to submit to the Israeli/US will. The use of nuclear weapons is being rationalized as necessary to destroy Iran’s underground facilities, but the real purpose is to terrorize Islam and to bring it to heel.

Is Bush's War Winding Down or Heating Up?
Following such an attack, should it happen, Arab states in the ME will undoubtedly accelerate their nuclear programs, perhaps with N.Korean, Russian, Chinese and/or Pakistani assistance!

This is a series written in February 2005 in response to North Korea's annoucement that it had nuclear weapons.

BLUEJACKET · 02-09-2007

N.Korea strives to win energy

Pyongyang Wants Diplomatic Ties With Washington -That's nothing new!
It is my prediction that China will have no choice but attempt to take over & annex N.Korea at some future time. I invite all to bring forth arguments either for or against such a move.

Quote:

Briefly: China Unsettled By Shifts in Korean Peninsula
http://www.strategycenter.net/printV....asp?pubID=147
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D
Published on February 7th, 2007
ARTICLES

The latest sign that things are not going Beijing’s way in the Korean peninsula came on Friday February 2 at the Winter Asian Games in Changchun, China. During the awards ceremony, five South Korean female skaters held up seven placards proclaiming" Mount Paektu Is Our Territory."

This was a shock, since China has long claimed the mountain, which it calls Changbai, as its own territory. And has assumed that its Korean vassals would go along.

Neither North nor South Korea has ever agreed with that—the mountain has traditionally had great nationalistic significance for Koreans, and the area near it in China is full of ethnic Koreans.The gesture was undoubtedly spontaneous but no Korean has disowned it.

This is a significant straw in the wind.

China seems to have assumed for some time that neither Korea posed a threat to her. Far from it. North Korea and its nuclear program were a "borrowed knife" with which to threaten Japan and the United States.

The danger, as Beijing saw it, was the collapse of North Korea—against which she made provision by claiming that the ancient kingdom of Goguryo, which scholars have traditionally thought of as proto-Korean, was in fact Chinese.
That claim was evidently designed to legitimize a Chinese operation to occupy the North when it did collapse.

But now things have taken a very different turn. Both North and South Koreans are becoming more nationalistic and less patient with China. South Korea is still deeply suspicious of the North, and vice versa, but both sides may be coming to understand that they had better hang together, or China may annex half their country.

China has always assumed she could simply turn off food aid and shut the oil tap if North Korea got too far out of line. My own suspicion is that under such circumstances South Korea would make up the shortfall. And such a hostile action by China would alienate both Koreas, without coercing either of them.

Furthermore, the United States may be moving toward simply recognizing North Korea. We still nourish the dream that somehow North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons in return for such recognition. That is impossible. But recognition is still a good idea.

It would let us talk directly to the North Koreans, without Chinese intermediation, instantly producing leverage in Beijing.

Now suppose that as a result of talks, U.S. tensions with Pyongyang fall. Suppose further that North and South Korea slowly draw closer together. A frightening but convenient flashpoint begins to cool.

Convenient because the danger of war in Korea distracts the United States and Japan from other dangers in Asia, and having the two Koreas opposing one another means neither can fully serve Korean national interests.

The United States and Japan would be able to relax a bit. Communications among them and the two Koreas would increase. The Chinese would no longer be the indispensable go between.

Forces now assigned to the defense of Korea could move elsewhere. What had been a buffer, North Korea, would become a pressure point.

Not only that, a new economic and military power a bit smaller in area than the British isles, would emerge. The two Koreas would, between them, possess nuclear weapons sufficient to place Beijing and much of north China at risk, a variety of missiles, modern fighters, naval vessels, and stealthy conventional submarines.

This new state would share a contested border with China, and to the north connect directly to Russia. To the south its coast would completely overshadow and dominate all maritime approach routes to Tianjin, the port of Beijing, and to Qingdao, a major Chinese naval base. Korea’s position is of extraordinary strategic significance. From it, all maritime access to north China can be cut off.
China is protesting, to be sure, but in their usual ham-handed way. Having said nothing about the North Korean bomb, they are now raising hell about some skaters—and renaming schools in China [!!] after Mount Paektu/Changbai—a clear attempt to stir up nationalist passions.

Koreans have nationalist passions too, however. Until now they have been directed against Japan, a cruel colonial master from 1910 to 1945, and against the United States (which saved freedom in South Korea at the cost of 50,000 American dead].

But Korean history has shown repeatedly that China has always been the real problem.

As this fact becomes more clearly recognized in both Koreas, then we may expect, for once, that what has been a problem for us may begin to turn into an (intractable) problem for China.

Pointblank · 02-09-2007

This is a section from Christopher D. Hale’s “Real Reform in North Korea? The Aftermath of the 2002 Economic Measures” that I thought might be interesting:

Quote:

It is further instructive to view Pyongyang’s recent economic rapprochement with the South in the context of its overall, global “charm offensive.” Kim Jong Il’s summitry now includes not only South Korea but also the regional powers of Northeast Asia except the United States. The summits have generally carried implicit requests for aid, as evidenced in the June 2000 North-South summit, the August 2002 summit meeting with Russia, and the September 2002 normalization talks with Japan. The recent six-party talks, in which Pyongyang has attempted to extract as much aid as possible in return for dismantling its nuclear program, is another example. Overall, for the time being Pyongyang will likely concentrate most of its energies on increasing foreign aid through diplomatic channels rather than private foreign investment, because this strategy offers the prospect of a much larger chunk of cash in the short term with less danger of foreign political encroachment. Perhaps not unintentionally, Pyongyang’s implementation of the July 2002 reform package has given the regime, at a time of increasing donor fatigue, a retort to concerns from donors that aid money would simply disappear down a black hole.

BLUEJACKET · 02-11-2007

I expected it was going to happen- everyone is looking after their own interests, and there is no trust between the main parties-
New Setback in North Korean Nuclear Talks
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/11/wo...gewanted=print

Violet Oboe · 02-12-2007

Kim Jong Il knows best that he is holding his nuclear aces firm in his hand and he is intent tho wait out Bush jr. lame duck administration to get the deal HE wants for North Korea. Of course the ´little man´also is aware of the fact that the Bush team is itching for a fight with Iran during this spring (after that the window of opportunity for strikes against Iran will close for ever!).

Accordingly poor Christopher Hill has to perform Mission Impossible and securing the second front through a murky but at first glance seducing deal Bush jr. will be able to renege if the job with Iran is finished but Kim is obviously clever enough not to fall in this apparent trap. North Korea´s strategic situation would worsen significantly if the US miltary potential does not continue to be deflected by an Iran absorbing substantial strategic assets (Navy, Airforce) and Iraq plus Afghanistan tying up most of Army and Marines combat brigades.

In the know about all these facts Pyongyang plays patiently the waiting game, confident that soon ´incidents´will happen in the middle east ensuring additionally that neither China nor Russia will apply further pressure on NK! (just watch Putin´s speech at Munich and his subsequent al-jazeera interview and you know why: Wowa was indeed almost boiling!)

FuManChu · 02-12-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by Violet Oboe

Kim Jong Il knows best that he is holding his nuclear aces firm in his hand and he is intent tho wait out Bush jr. lame duck administration to get the deal HE wants for North Korea.

I don't know that he actually wants to give up his nuclear weapons for anything (that can be reasonably be expected to be supplied). Look at the article. If the Kyodo news report is right, he's demanding far more than anyone could be possibly willing to give. Is he so delusional he thinks a new President would give that? He could be deliberately asking for too much, so that he can increase his nuclear capabilities while the talks are still going on.

Pointblank · 02-12-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by FuManChu

I don't know that he actually wants to give up his nuclear weapons for anything (that can be reasonably be expected to be supplied). Look at the article. If the Kyodo news report is right, he's demanding far more than anyone could be possibly willing to give. Is he so delusional he thinks a new President would give that? He could be deliberately asking for too much, so that he can increase his nuclear capabilities while the talks are still going on.

North Korea is extremely short on hard currency, capital, fuel and food. It could be that one of these items and the demands by North Korea for a large amount of one of these items is causing hesitation and stalling the deal. I am thinking it is most likely a demand for vast quantities of hard currency or capital.

FuManChu · 02-12-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointblank

I am thinking it is most likely a demand for vast quantities of hard currency or capital.

Or being allowed to print it's "own" hard currency.

BLUEJACKET · 02-12-2007

This was to be expected as well-
US says no more bargaining with NKorea on nukes
http://www.afp.com/english/news/stor....n7kchp04.html

Quote:

http://www.polit.ru/news/2007/02/12/...ori.popup.html
Translation:
USA refused to guarantee the security of North Korea
in the first phase on nuclear disarmament and is described by RIA <novosti>. At the six-party talks, which started on February 8 in Beijing, the North Korean delegation put forward the conditions under which country is ready to stop the nuclear reactor, which is used to produce weapons-grade plutonium, in return for energy assistance and the conclusion of all participants in the negotiations by non-aggression guarantees from the United States. In addition, North Korea demands that all American aircraft carriers and fighter jets, calling South Korea, should be tested for the presence of nuclear weapons. And Washington, and Seoul those claims rejected. <In the current situation, the United States could not provide assurance that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea again failed to apply sanctions or not phrase military strikes>, - wrote prophenyanskaya newspaper in Japan. In the highest echelons of the North Korean dominated by the view that the nuclear crisis is the <vrajdebnaya politika> USA, and its demands to North Korea only to a change of attitude towards themselves, but in the talks, his delegation learned that, that the policy of the United States will remain the same.

Pointblank · 02-12-2007

Quite an about face right now:
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/0...a-nuclear.html

Quote:

Agreement reached at North Korea nuclear talks, U.S. envoy says
Last Updated: Monday, February 12, 2007 | 8:28 PM ET
The Associated Press

Six countries reached a tentative agreement Tuesday on initial steps toward North Korea's nuclear disarmament, which could usher in the first concrete progress after more than three years of talks.

The U.S. envoy to the talks, Christopher Hill, emerged in the early morning hours of Tuesday looking weary after a marathon 16-hour negotiating session and announced that a tentative deal had been struck at the latest round of six-party talks on the North's nuclear program.

The draft agreement contained commitments on disarmament and energy assistance along with "initial actions" to be taken by certain deadlines, Hill said. Working groups will be set up, hopefully in a month, laying out a framework for dealing with regional tensions, the assistant secretary of state added.

He declined to give further details of the draft.

The agreement could herald the first step toward disarmament since the talks began in 2003. The process reached its lowest point in October when North Korea conducted its first nuclear test explosion, alarming the world and triggering UN sanctions.

In the last few days, the talks had appeared to be on the verge of foundering, and envoys made clear that their frustration was increasing and their patience growing thin. The current round was to conclude on Monday but as they progressed toward a deal, negotiators extended it late into the night and then into the early hours of Tuesday.

Hill said the draft agreement still must be reviewed by the home governments of the six countries at the talks, but he was upbeat about its chances. He said he was in "constant communication" with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"We feel it's an excellent draft; I don't think we're the problem," he said.

North Korea did not immediately make any public comment, but South Korean envoy Chun Yung-woo said he believed the proposal would be acceptable to Pyongyang.

Chun said the five other countries agreed to evenly share the
energy aid outlined under the deal.

However, Japan and Russia were more noncommittal. Japanese envoy Kenichiro Sasae said it was "too early to tell" whether Tokyo was satisfied. And Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said there were "many questions regarding details," Russia's Itar-Tass news agency reported.

Hill said the parties to the talks will meet again later Tuesday.

In September 2005, North Korea was promised energy aid and security guarantees in exchange for a pledge to abandon its nuclear programs. But talks on implementing that agreement snarled on other issues and that plan went nowhere.

Hill has repeatedly said he hoped a resolution would help improve stability in a region filled with bitter historical disputes. The two Koreas remain technically at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended in a cease-fire that has never been replaced by a peace treaty.

"We're trying to do more than just do denuclearization for energy," Hill said. "We're trying to address some of the underlying problems."

Though he did not provide specifics, a key demand from North Korea has been improved relations with the United States. Japan and North Korea remain fiercely antagonistic, in part because of North Korea's acknowledged but unresolved abductions of Japanese citizens.

Under a 1994 U.S.-North Korea disarmament agreement, the North was to receive 500,000 tons of fuel oil a year before construction was completed on two nuclear reactors that would be able to generate two million kilowatts of electricity.

That deal fell apart in late 2002 when the U.S. accused the North of conducting a secret uranium enrichment program, sparking the latest nuclear crisis.

We have a tentative deal... let's hope it holds.

FuManChu · 02-13-2007

Maybe, just maybe....

N Korea 'agrees to disarmament'

Quote:

North Korea has agreed to take the first steps towards nuclear disarmament in return for fuel aid. Chinese envoy Wu Dawei said an important consensus had been reached at the end of six-party talks in Beijing.

He said Pyongyang had agreed to close its Yongbyon reactor in return for 50,000 metric tons of fuel aid. Under the deal, North Korea will eventually receive another one million tonnes of fuel oil when it permanently disables its nuclear operations.

The latest round of talks - involving the two Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia - have been running since Thursday. Delegates worked late into Monday night to hammer out the final details of the deal.

Violet Oboe · 02-13-2007

Only time will tell whether this deal holds or will fall apart like in ´05.

CNN did an interview today with former UN ambassador John Bolton and (not surprisingly!) the guy was visibly pissed off by the news from Beijing. Although Bolton is rightly criticized for his rude behaviour and diplomatic blunders his remarks regarding the deal were quite correct: North Korea is indeed rewarded for her ´bad´ (well that lies in the eyes of the beholder!) behaviour and all the ´tough´talk in recent years from Bush jr. administration was apparently only exactly just that: cheap talk. Of course Iran is watching closely and and will soon draw the necessary conclusions and this iranian reaction will certainly not further US nonproliferation interests.

After all I am stunned by the cunning negotiation strategy persistantly employed by Kim Jong Il during the last decade. The Poker pros in Las Vegas should better pray that ´little fat guy´never pays a visit to their shiny city and plays some no limit matches with them; he would certainly win the jackpot and they would lose their pants!

Perhaps Kim has´sacrificed´a dud reactor (there are rumours that NK is running low on the necessary fuel and will be unable to produce significant amounts of Pu for the forseeable future) for valuable goodies (1 million ts oil, lifting of financial sanctions, stricken off the ´terror list´). The inspectors of IAEA would be limited to Yongbyon and a few other locations (Pu reprocessing labs) and meanwhile his cascades of centrifuges are quietly humming along in deep subterranean mountain caves producing U 235 as an alternative weapons material. Furthermore NK retains her current arsenal of around a dozen nuclear weapons and the hinging question of the validity of the NPT for NK is further deferred probably to be discussed in the next ´no stick and lots of carrots´negotiation round!

P.S.: The south korean KCIA maintained in a personality profile about Kim Jong Il produced after he emerged as ´heir apparent´in 1980 that he probably has an IQ of around 140 points. Most people including myself scoffed about this and thought that KCIA repeated only careful engineered propaganda about little genius dear leader. After watching the man thirteen years in power now without any help from big daddy Kim Il Sung I am at least inclined to modify my apparent prejudices.

BLUEJACKET · 02-13-2007

Korean nuclear deal postpones big issue

N Korean accord: Now for the hard part

Quote:

Some of the most contentious issues, though, have been put aside for later talks, giving Pyongyang ample time to get up to its all too familiar tricks. - Donald Kirk (Feb 13, '07)

I think they asked for large amount of fuel oil so it could be stockpiled, and in the next crisis, in case the deliveries are reduced it's still be enough. The latest agreement is a compromise, for all intents and purposes. If all goes well, NK will not be so dependent on China for its energy supply. In the meantime, they'll hold on & increase thier nuclear force as an insurance and bargaining tool.
Hirsh: Behind Bush's N. Korea Reversal
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17136874...playmode/1098/

Quote:

Talks agree nuclear disarmament in North Korea

EVENT
Six-party talks ended on 12 February in an agreement to work towards nuclear disarmament in North Korea.

Given the history of disappointments in bilateral and multilateral agreements, scepticism surrounds the current accord. North Korea has 60 days in which to shut down and seal its Yongbyon nuclear facilities, in return for 50,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil. Future incentives include the provision of 950,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil, normalisation of relations with Japan and the US, and discussion of a permanent armistice with South Korea.

FORECAST
The vagueness of the current accord underlines its fragility. The current agreement only forces Pyongyang to shut down and seal its primary research reactor at Yongbyon, without mention of dismantlement or disposal of nuclear materials. No details have been provided on North Korea's nascent uranium enrichment programme.

© 2007 Jane's Information Group

Outside Pressures Broke Korean Deadlock
A lot of bravado, but whan you are strong noone wants to mess with you!-
Bush waves a white flag

Quote:

"I find it difficult to believe that this is a strategic decision to dismantle its nukes. I see this as a tactical way of getting the heat off, getting concessions and keeping the Chinese happy," said Michael Breen, Seoul-based consultant and author of "Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader."
With nuclear weapons, impoverished North Korea gets a seat at the table with global powers including the United States -- the nation it argues is trying to topple it and causes it to sacrifice so much to maintain its 1.2-million man military.
Without nuclear arms, North Korea is just a poor country with failed economic policies, analysts said. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070216/...a_north_kim_dc

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