Hyopthetical Israel/Syria war

I think Syria learned its lesson from the Six Day and Yom Kippur Wars. They aren't going to attack Israel. They would probably try to fight similarly to how Hezbollah has, hitting cities with rockets and missles, targeting tanks with ATGMs and trying to draw the Israelis in and then harass and cut them off. Of course, Syria has tanks, planes and other nice toys that Hezbollah doesn't have so they would be able to hit Israel with more firepower. But if Israel wanted to bomb the Syrians back to the Abbasid Caliphate, they could. And if they wanted to punch through and take Damascus, they could. I doubt that Israel would try to force reigme change though, as any reigme that replaced the Assads would be Islamic and more hostile to Israel, not pro-western.

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

But if Israel wanted to bomb the Syrians back to the Abbasid Caliphate, they could. And if they wanted to punch through and take Damascus, they could.

Compare with

" We will send them back 20 years" and

"If they wanted to they would punch through and take Beriut".

Now take the above and then read through the news. Haaretz is reporting "autorization" of "widening of offense" third time or what?? And yeah please do also read about lates 15 casualties on the same page.

This is a very non-serious commentary on the events taking shape, but it sheds light on a lot of things which are strikingly true (and it's funny too...as funny as a terrible thing like a war could be)

http://www.exile.ru/2006-July-28/a_h...l_of_thee.html

I have previously researched the Syrian air defences and generally become quite familiar with their weaponry. http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread213023/pg1 (guess who is me there, lol).

My thoughts are that Syria has little chance of preventing Israel gaining air superiority over Syrian air space although Israeli loses would be a given.

If Syria gets ex-Russian MiG-31 Foxhounds (as rumored; MAKO is promoting the MiG-31 to unspecified existing middle eastern MiG-25 operators - Syria fits the bill (so do Libya and Algeria. Iraq is not thought to be in the game for obvious reasons).... well, it'd reduce the odds somewhat.

Although Syria has many ballistic missiles which would do some damage to Israeli cities, despite any lasers/Arrow ABMs/Patriot Israel deploys (IMO), these are fired from fixed sites and and at any rate would be more than equalled by Israel's vast array of stand-off weapons, mostly air delivered.

Originally Posted by planeman

I have previously researched the Syrian air defences and generally become quite familiar with their weaponry. http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread213023/pg1 (guess who is me there, lol).

My thoughts are that Syria has little chance of preventing Israel gaining air superiority over Syrian air space although Israeli loses would be a given.

If Syria gets ex-Russian MiG-31 Foxhounds (as rumored; MAKO is promoting the MiG-31 to unspecified existing middle eastern MiG-25 operators - Syria fits the bill (so do Libya and Algeria. Iraq is not thought to be in the game for obvious reasons).... well, it'd reduce the odds somewhat.

Although Syria has many ballistic missiles which would do some damage to Israeli cities, despite any lasers/Arrow ABMs/Patriot Israel deploys (IMO), these are fired from fixed sites and and at any rate would be more than equalled by Israel's vast array of stand-off weapons, mostly air delivered.

The question is what Israel is willing to stake and for what. Syria or Syrian Regime to be more accurate as Syrian people hardly matter to their junta, will hate to end up in life death situation with Israel. Israel can beat the crap out of them in all the conventional sense. BUt then if Syrians try to do what Hizbollah is doing with way more than what Hizbollah has, Israel will feel a lot of pain. Secondly, Israel decides on bringing the regime down and they would for sure fire all their scud armed with chemical and bilogical weapons. Yes we know Israle have nukes and they would use em too. But, the junta doesn't care about people anyway. Thirdly any such confrontation is bound to make Israel so weak that it will become a potential easy target for Hamas, Hizbollah and everyone else who has a score to settle with Israel. We are not talking about shock and awe to bring armies to their knees by threatening their capital, "rulers"and "Kings". It's about holding on to all that territory and facing what Hizbollah is throwing at IDF. Only that order of magnitude will be much larger. And to be honest with you i myself am shocked by the way IDF has conducted itself so far. But then to be fair with them, maybe this is not what they are meant to handle.

Originally Posted by maglomanic

But then to be fair with them, maybe this is not what they are meant to handle.

You would think that after eighteen years in Lebanon and the US adventure in Iraq would make the Israelis think twice though before going ahead with this campaign...

Originally Posted by crazyinsane105

You would think that after eighteen years in Lebanon and the US adventure in Iraq would make the Israelis think twice though before going ahead with this campaign...

They are working against a limited window of opportunity based upon
an analysis of their previous defeat.

They must act now because the world is becoming multi-lateral much faster
than expected and they believe that they lost the last time because they used
too little force

Planeman-I like Abovetopsecret too. I'm not a member though, I just read it.

They are working against a limited window of opportunity based upon
an analysis of their previous defeat.

They must act now because the world is becoming multi-lateral much faster
than expected and they believe that they lost the last time because they used too little force

I agree, I think that Israel no longer cares about "winning hearts and minds". Israel believes that groups like Hamas and Hezbollah cannot be negotiated with as they have given up Gaza and South Lebanon, which Hamas and Hezbollah were fighting for, but the war still has not stopped. Israel realizes that the problem is not it's occupation of territories, it is Israel's exsistance, so Israel will use all the force it wants to use. However, I think that the Israelis want to get out of Lebanon quickly. I believe that they will end up attacking all the way up to the city of Baalbek, then withdraw.

All of Syria's moves are geared to the survival of the reigme. That is why the have such an extensive fortification network, as Planeman showed/wrote in his abovetopsecret link. That is also why the won't use their military-They want it to protect the reigme but won't voulntarily risk defeat by attacking Israel. The status quo is good for Syria-they have a powerful ally in Iran, the US is tied down in Iraq, Israel is tied down in Lebanon, allowing Syria to hurt them by helping Hezbollah. Oil prices are high, keeping the Assads afloat. I think that Syria is as afraid of organizations like Hamas and Hezbolllah as the are of Israel. Populist Islamist organizations like Hamas are as much of a threat to the Assads as Israel is. Therefore, Syria has been very clever in palying its enemies off against each other. Syria needs to have a sort of buffer zone against possible enemies; the Iraqi insurgency covers them against the Americans, Hezbollah covers them against the Israelis, their occupation of Lebanon also served that purpose. if we take into account all of the above Syria's actions make perfect sense. To ensure reigme survival they will not confront Israel openly. However to protect the status quo and it's "buffer zone" in Lebanon (Hezbollah) they will play with fire by covertly aiding Hamas and Hezbollah. However, it would not make sense if they attacked Israel, so any agression would have to come from Israel.

^ I think the odds of Syria getting into this conflict are slightly higher than you say at the beginning. Mainly because of what you say at the end. Syria has been a transport hub for insurgent armaments since the Iraqi war turned into guerilla warfare. There are two consequences to this.

Having committed itself so far. It cannot possibly stay "neutral" in this conflict. The internal forces in Syria calling for a blow against Israel (shoulder to shoulder with their Hezbollah brothers) may be stronger than Assad can control. I've also seen news reports that the government is preparing the population for war by fanning anti-Israeli sentiments.

The second consequence is that Israel will surely take the fight to Syria itself to eliminate the flow of supplies to Hezbollah. That is when Syria will be drawn into the conflict. Knowing well this would likely happen, I'm certain the Syrian government is now preparing for the fight of its life.

If there is going to be a conventional conflict with Syria (no matter who starts it, Israel or Syria), the IDF will gain air supremacy in less than a week and reach Damascus in less than 10 days. After all this is what they trained for since 1982. The Israeli standoff weapons, BVR and EW have evolved a lot since than, while the Syrian capabilities are roughly the same. This course of action however seems highly unlikely, at least for me.
For the rest of this issue, I completely agree with what Finn McCool wrote.

air supremacy maybe , 10 days to reach Damascus .... i doubt it , they even
had a hard time in Lebanon.

air supremacy maybe , 10 days to reach Damascus .... i doubt it , they even
had a hard time in Lubnan.

The terrain in Southern Lebanon is completely different than th road to Damascus. You have lots of hilltops with villages and valleys with dense bushes, trees and natural caves.
On the other hand from the Golan heights to Damascus is only a flat, hard plain (=tank territory)

Originally Posted by Roger604

^ I think the odds of Syria getting into this conflict are slightly higher than you say at the beginning. Mainly because of what you say at the end. Syria has been a transport hub for insurgent armaments since the Iraqi war turned into guerilla warfare. There are two consequences to this.

Having committed itself so far. It cannot possibly stay "neutral" in this conflict. The internal forces in Syria calling for a blow against Israel (shoulder to shoulder with their Hezbollah brothers) may be stronger than Assad can control. I've also seen news reports that the government is preparing the population for war by fanning anti-Israeli sentiments.

The second consequence is that Israel will surely take the fight to Syria itself to eliminate the flow of supplies to Hezbollah. That is when Syria will be drawn into the conflict. Knowing well this would likely happen, I'm certain the Syrian government is now preparing for the fight of its life.

I also think the odds of Syria getting involved now are higher because the Syrians and the Israeli's have come to the same strategic conclusions.

The world is becoming more multi-lateral

The US will not always be able to provide Israel with weapons which
are qualititatively better than those supplied to the Arab states

Sooner or later the Arab states will have weapons which are better than
Israel.

Israel needs to ensure that it is surrounding by small divided Arab states
in order to counter the above see the Kivunim plan

The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel's primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi'ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today.

A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties
by Oded Yinon, translated by Israel Shahak | KIVUNIM / Palestine with Provenance | February 1982
http://www.monabaker.com/pMachine/mo...=A2298_0_1_0_M

The Syrians have realised that they are next on the target list. They intend to teach Israel a bloody lesson in Lebanon. If they succeed the likud party in america and in israel will be forced back to the negotiating table. If they fail
Israel and america will move onto Syria. Iran of course cannot permit this to happen.

Originally Posted by googeler

The terrain in Southern Lebanon is completely different than th road to Damascus. You have lots of hilltops with villages and valleys with dense bushes, trees and natural caves.
On the other hand from the Golan heights to Damascus is only a flat, hard plain (=tank territory)

Yeah .. but the syrian won't wait at their boarder , Lubnan act as a buffer zone for syria , when israel reach certain point in Lubnan ... the syrian will cross the boarder and fight in lubnan side where's they still get an advantages of a dense area . Road to Damascus is deadly is israel public willing to accept huge amount of death.

Yeah .. but the syrian won't wait at their boarder , Lubnan act as a buffer zone for syria , when israel reach certain point in Lubnan ... the syrian will cross the boarder and fight in lubnan side where's they still get an advantages of a dense area . Road to Damascus is deadly is israel public willing to accept huge amount of death.

And why would Syrian troops move into Lebanon? (I don't know what Lubnan is) Just to make a possible Israeli drive to Damascus easyer? If the Assad regime sends regular troops into Lebanon, it signs its death sentance.