The Civil War in Libya

Originally Posted by delft

People who cannot organize a provisional government after driving away the previous one are not able to organize that driving away in the first place.

A pithy statement, but one with no historical evidence to back it up. If history teaches us anything, it's that revolutions often escape control of those who started them.

In any case, a close reading of the events in Libya reveals that the NTC wasn't truly the driving force behind the revolution's victory.

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

A pithy statement, but one with no historical evidence to back it up. If history teaches us anything, it's that revolutions often escape control of those who started them.

In any case, a close reading of the events in Libya reveals that the NTC wasn't truly the driving force behind the revolution's victory.

No close reading needed. It's been pretty obvious all along that NATO was the driving force behind the revolution's victory.

I'm reading an article today in my Dutch newspaper ( NRC-Handelsblad, for those interested ) about the failed state Bosnia-Herzegovina. Remember the failed state Kosovo? Iraq and Afghanistan don't look healthy. Now we're getting the failed state Libya.

More conflicting reports from the Libyan NTC:

Libyan city of Sirte on the brink of falling | World news | The Guardian
Gaddafi loyalists hit back in Sirte with Mutassim still at large - Telegraph


Seems like most of the news agencies simply copy off of each other.

Finally we see a report on something that was obvious from a very early stage.

BBC News - Amnesty urges Libya to tackle 'stain' of detainee abuse

The cynical part of me cannot help to think this report would have came out a hell of a lot more swiftly if the allegations had been leveled against Qadaffi forces.

Originally Posted by plawolf

Finally we see a report on something that was obvious from a very early stage.

BBC News - Amnesty urges Libya to tackle 'stain' of detainee abuse

The cynical part of me cannot help to think this report would have came out a hell of a lot more swiftly if the allegations had been leveled against Qadaffi forces.

Every time the Western media is shown pictures of people who are killed/executed, they always claim it's done by Gaddafi's forces, most of the time with no further evidence than what the closest rebel says.

Libyan tanks hope to crush Sirte resistance | News | National Post

Originally Posted by article

“We’ve noticed now they are fighting every man for himself,” said Baloun al-Sharie, a field commander. “We tried to tell them it’s enough and to give themselves up, but they would not.”

NTC officers say Gaddafi loyalists fear reprisals if they surrender — some captured fighters have been roughed up.

Amnesty International issued a report on Wednesday saying Libya’s new rulers were in danger of repeating human rights abuses commonplace under Gaddafi. The NTC said it would look into the report.

NTC forces found 25 corpses wrapped in plastic sheets near the Sirte battle zone on Wednesday. They accused Gaddafi militias of carrying out execution-style killings. Five corpses shown to a Reuters team wore civilian clothes, had their hands tied behind their backs and gunshot wounds to the head.

Either these guys are fanatically loyal to Gaddafi, or they know just how slim their chances of survival are if they surrender.

Once again, we see this media assumption that whatever the NTC says is true.

BBC News - 'Gaddafi loyalists' and Libya NTC Tripoli battle ends

Looks like Qaddaffi is not as dead and buried as many in the west hopes.

With all the news and revelations coming out of Libya lately, it is starting to look increasingly like that the NTC is starting to pay for breaking the cardinal rule in a civil war - don't make it personal by taking out your anger towards the government on the supporters and fighters.

This is a civil war, meaning that unless you plan on committing genocide, you are going to have to learn to reconcile and live with the people you fought against when the fighting ends. Mistreating prisoners and carrying out revenge attacks, especially against civilians, will only make the war last longer and the reconciliation harder afterwards.

The PLA would never have won the Chinese civil war so easily if they did not treat their prisoners so well, and China would have had a lot more problems after the Nationalists fled to Taiwan if large parts of the civilian population were against the new rulers.

If you treat prisoners badly and/or execute them, is it any wonder that their buddies will be less inclined to give themselves up and instead choose to fight to try and actually win this war for Qaddaffi?

We are seeing a markedly increase in resistance of pro-Qaddaffi forces in recent weeks, this could be because the NTC is pushing into the most pro-Qaddaffi areas of Libya, but and I think that NTC field commander summed up the reason quite well - “We’ve noticed now they are fighting every man for himself”. Before, pro-Qaddaffi forces were easily defeated because they lacked the will to really fight as much as because of NATO air strikes. With the widespread abuse of prisoners by NTC forces, those Qaddaffi fighters now have a reason to fight whereas they didn't before.

Unless the NTC strike gold and get Qaddaffi and his sons pretty quickly, there is an increasing risk that the nature of this civil war might be about to change. If pro-Qaddaffi forces have enough motivation to operate independently behind enemy lines and are no-longer press-ganged men desperate to surrender given the first opportunity, Qaddaffi would be able to launch a guerilla campaign that could take years to root out. And if the NTC does not clean up it's act pretty quickly, it could easily turn more and more of it's population against them, and then they would be in really screwed territory.

The UK and France organized this war really badly.

Originally Posted by delft

The UK and France organized this war really badly.

Even with the majority of the planning came with help from the US, NATO somehow didn't perform up to par.

The western powers have hardly kept a stella record when it comes of post war scenarios. Just look at the fugly mess they made of Iraq.

Western powers just seem to care about blowing sh!t up and if they put a fraction of the effort and resources to rebuilding as they invested in destroying a country, it would be a completely different story.

Originally Posted by plawolf

The western powers have hardly kept a stella record when it comes of post war scenarios. Just look at the fugly mess they made of Iraq.

Western powers just seem to care about blowing sh!t up and if they put a fraction of the effort and resources to rebuilding as they invested in destroying a country, it would be a completely different story.

The whole thing is a ridiculous mess especially since there really seems to be no effort into any attempt at rebuilding, as the militaries seem ill-equipped to do this they must rely on the private sector, but rather than effectively marshaling the private sector to perform the task they allow 'free markets' to decide the outcome, and that just results in massive amounts of graft and corruption.

They are unable to organize the rebuilding. But Iraq is paying $146b to Kuwait in damages. If the US were forced to pay $1460b in damages to Iraq the world would become a lot safer. ( And $146b to Afghanistan &c.! )

A government or revolutionary force that can't come to power on its own, can't maintain order on its own either.