SinoDefence Forum

BLUEJACKET · 10-14-2006

I think that the Australian military isn't adequately covered here. In the past, Australia been involved in many conflicts in Asia. http://www.awm.gov.au/atwar/conflict.htm

As PRC's capabilities grow, her relations with Australia and its military will become even more important. I invite all to post their thoughts on current and future events/trends that we may witness. For the start:
1. Will/shall RAN operate an aircraft carrier again?
2. Will/shall Australia go nuclear?
3. will they continue to be very close US allies?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Army
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_A...e_21st_century
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Australian_Air_Force

Jeff Head · 10-14-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by BLUEJACKET

1. Will/shall RAN operate an aircraft carrier again?
2. Will/shall Australia go nuclear?
3. will they continue to be very close US allies?

In answert to your questions:

1. The RAN is already looking hard at a Sea Control type carrier. Word is they are leaning very hard towards the Spanish Strategic Projection Vessel design. Ref THIS DOCUMENT

2. Very doubtful, in fact, highly unlikely in the forseeable future.

3. Most definitely.

chakos · 10-14-2006

The Aussie sea control ship is to be without any capability to carry fixed wing aircraft, the department of defence beleives that any operation that would require fixed wing combat support will be conducted as part of a US/Australian alliance and as such the 8-12 aircraft we would be able to contribute will be meaningless in the scheme of things.

In regards to nuclear weapons, we do not currently have them, we do though have the ability to produce them very quickly if need be and as well as that we would be covered by the US arsenal if things went upstream in a hurry. We are in the same boat as the Japanese in that situation.

rhino123 · 10-14-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by chakos

The Aussie sea control ship is to be without any capability to carry fixed wing aircraft, the department of defence beleives that any operation that would require fixed wing combat support will be conducted as part of a US/Australian alliance and as such the 8-12 aircraft we would be able to contribute will be meaningless in the scheme of things.

In regards to nuclear weapons, we do not currently have them, we do though have the ability to produce them very quickly if need be and as well as that we would be covered by the US arsenal if things went upstream in a hurry. We are in the same boat as the Japanese in that situation.

Producing nuclear bombs quickly is one thing. I believe that any nation in this world who have nuclear power station could do it. However means of delivering these weapons is the tricky part.

Australia had a nuclear power station (heard from my Aussie friend in Sydney), and so to build bombs is no problem, however I have no such confidence with Australia's missile technology.

Finn McCool · 10-14-2006

American and Australian interests will continue to coincide and thus Australia will continue to add to American military ventures. In addition, I think that the US is interested in cultivating Australia as an ally much like Japan in order to counter China's rising military power. Just as the JSDF in essence adds to American military capability in the Far East, I think that the US is interested in helping the Australian military to become a true reigional military power in order to add to the American reigional miltiary alliance that includes Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

chakos · 10-14-2006

Rhino,

If Australia was to want to weaponise nuclear weapons then the most likelly way to go about it would be to fit a nuclear warhead onto the popeye guided missiles that are used by the F111's. Dont forget that although the F111's are the C model that model is basically an FB-111A with a strengthened undercarriage. Noone knows for sure that the avionics to handle nuclear weapons where removed when the aircraft where purchased and guven the ultra close relationship between Aus/US then id tend to think that particular capability may not have been removed at all.

Any difficulties in actually developing and fitting a warhead onto the missile would be null and mute because if the reason for Australia having a nuke capability was legitimate enough the US would gladly give all the help required to achieve this.

Jeff Head · 10-15-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

American and Australian interests will continue to coincide and thus Australia will continue to add to American military ventures. In addition, I think that the US is interested in cultivating Australia as an ally much like Japan in order to counter China's rising military power. Just as the JSDF in essence adds to American military capability in the Far East, I think that the US is interested in helping the Australian military to become a true reigional military power in order to add to the American reigional miltiary alliance that includes Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

I agree completely with your post. The Australian and American interests coincide and therefore the US will strnegthen Australia as a buttress against any future Asian mainland threat.Australia was a major lynchpin in the Pacific in WW II...and remains strategically positioned, along with Japan now, to stay that way from the American and Australian perspective..

Obi Wan Russell · 10-15-2006

As to wether or not the Aussies should buy F-35Bs for their new LHDs, numerically they may not be able to make as much difference as any American contribution to a joint operation, but politically it would mean a great deal. How would the US feel if all it's allies took the view that because the US armed forces are big enough to do the job on their own, there is no need to contribute anything to the campaign? A single squadron of Aussie Lightnings flying alongside US forces will buy a lot of political Kudos in Washington far beyond any material gain by their presence, and Australia will otherwise be left out if the other regional powers aquire Carrierborne Naval Airpower and they do not. As has been posted before in other threads, carriers allow you to fight your next war on someone elses soil instead of your own.

bd popeye · 10-15-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obi Wan Russell

As to wether or not the Aussies should buy F-35Bs for their new LHDs, numerically they may not be able to make as much difference as any American contribution to a joint operation, but politically it would mean a great deal. How would the US feel if all it's allies took the view that because the US armed forces are big enough to do the job on their own, there is no need to contribute anything to the campaign? A single squadron of Aussie Lightnings flying alongside US forces will buy a lot of political Kudos in Washington far beyond any material gain by their presence, and Australia will otherwise be left out if the other regional powers aquire Carrierborne Naval Airpower and they do not. As has been posted before in other threads, carriers allow you to fight your next war on someone elses soil instead of your own.

The RAN wants to build LHD's similar to this Spanish design called the Navantia.

The project could possibly be funded as soon as next year. I don't think the Aussies would have more than 30 JSF's. Just my idea.

Obi Wan Russell · 10-16-2006

All the reports I've read talk of 20 F-35Bs as part of a total order of 100 F-35As for the RAAF, which would allow for one frontline sqn (about 12 aircraft), a few for the training sqn (mostly with A models, the B model would only be required for specific STOVL training so possibly only 4 aircraft) and the other 4 as attrition spares. More aircraft could be ordered later to add a second sqn, but the Aussie government is officially denying any requirement for the B model (probably listening to the RAAF who have always felt threatened by Naval Aviation). If the aircraft were ordered, there are rumours that they will be operated by the Air Force and not the Fleet Air Arm, which is currently an all Helicopter force. We can be sure the RAAF and it's supporters will do everything they can to prevent the Navy regaining strike aircraft, as that is what insecure landlubbers do.

bd popeye · 10-16-2006

The RAN needs two of these LHD ships. Austraila is a country completly surrounded by water. They need two LHD's FAC's and patrol Frigates to protect their shore line.....

The RAAF hates the naval air arm with a passion and is probally against any LHD type ship. So how many F-35 JSF's will they allow the RAN to fly?

BLUEJACKET · 10-16-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by bd popeye

The RAN needs two of these LHD ships. Australia is a country completly surrounded by water. They need two LHD's FAC's and patrol Frigates to protect their shore line.....

It's a big island all right, but there are only 80 miles across the strait to Indonesia! But,

Quote:

Australia, with 19,650 kilometres of coastline does not have a force purely to defend its coast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guards_of_Australia
Acting as a US Deputy Sherriff in the South Pacific & Indonesian Archipelago is one thing, but China & SE Asia are entirely different. When it comes to its relations with the PRC, I wouldn't be sure that Australia will always (if ever from now on) toe the American line. With negative population growth, the nation will have to admit more immigrants, mainly from Asia, to remain economicaly viable. will Australia become a new Asian melting pot? Probably. And as their numbers grow, they will have more impact on their new country foreign policy and military posture as well. Compare its current population with that of China, Indonesia & India:

Quote:

20,264,082 (July 2006 est.)

Quote:

Birth rate: 12.14 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)
Death rate: 7.51 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)...
Australia's emphasis on reforms, low inflation, and growing ties with China are other key factors behind the economy's strength.
East Timor and Australia agreed in 2005 to defer the disputed portion of the boundary for fifty years and to split hydrocarbon revenues evenly outside the Joint Petroleum Development Area covered by the 2002 Timor Sea Treaty; East Timor dispute hampers creation of a revised maritime boundary with Indonesia (see also Ashmore and Cartier Islands dispute); regional states express concern over Australia's 2004 declaration of a 1,000-nautical mile-wide maritime identification zone; Australia asserts land and maritime claims to Antarctica (see Antarctica); in 2004 Australia submitted its claims to UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) to extend its continental margin from both its mainland and Antarctic claims

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications...k/geos/as.html

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Population: 1,313,973,713 (July 2006 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications...k/geos/ch.html

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Population: 245,452,739 (July 2006 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications...k/geos/id.html

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Population: 1,095,351,995 (July 2006 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications...k/geos/in.html

Quote:

China's No. 2 leader concluded an Australian visit Tuesday, meeting with Prime Minister John Howard and declaring that relations between the two countries were better than ever.
Wu Bangguo, the chairman of China's National People's Congress, said he had a candid conversation with Howard and that the two leaders had ``reached broad consensus on bilateral relations, (the) international situation and other major issues of a shared interest.''
``China-Australia relations are at their best shape in our history,'' Wu said through an interpreter at a dinner held in his honor at Parliament House.
Wu flies to New Zealand Wednesday after the six-day visit to Australia, which focused on gas and iron ore export infrastructure.
Australia will begin delivering liquid natural gas to China's Guangdong province next year as part of a 25 billion Australian dollar (US$19 billion; euro15 billion) supply contract _ Australia's largest-ever export deal.
Wu's visit to Sydney on Monday coincided with the beginning of negotiations on a free trade agreement between the two countries.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english...ent_445321.htm

Quote:

Foreign Minister Downer has indicated that the ANZUS treaty wouldn't automatically cause Australia to join the US in a future military defence of Taiwan. ... PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: Well, I certainly think, as Dan said, I think there has been a lot of interest in Washington at the way in which the Australian Government has handled relations with China over the last couple of years and particularly the last few months. And some quite significant moves like Mr Downer's really quite radical restatement of the way we see our obligations to the US under ANZUS and the - in the event of a US-China conflict over Taiwan. And also some of the language John Howard's been using in which he tends to depict Australia as a kind of an honest broker between the US and China on issues on which they might differ, which is hardly the view that the United States would expect of a close ally. I think this has caused a lot of interest in the US about where Australia is going and is asking the question: have we, in order to develop a trade and economic relationship, which everyone agrees is very important, gone too far in terms of - so to speak - cosying up to China or maybe even sort of appeasing China?

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/conte...5/s1398446.htm
http://www.china.org.cn/english/2003/Aug/72676.htm

Quote:

The Australian and Chinese economies are strongly complementary. .. Most recently, during the visit by Premier Wen Jiabao to Australia in April 2006, Australia and China signed a Nuclear Transfer Agreement and a Nuclear Cooperation Agreement which will allow for the supply of Australian uranium to China 's nuclear power program, and cooperation in peaceful uses of nuclear technology.

http://www.austemb.org.cn/en/relations_1_en.htm

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_E.../HK18Dk01.html

silverster · 10-25-2006

To us aussies, there are two threats in the region: Indonesia

and, in line with to USA Policies: China.

China is no threat to Australia, however, if there are conflict between USA and China over areas say... TW, then we would be involved no doubt.

The ADF budget 2007 just came out a month ago.

Basicially, we are building up our fleet of ANZAC FFG and preparing for the Air-defence DDG to replace the Perry Class FFG.

Airforce wise, we are just buying up new choppers and keeping out f-18's going for another dew years till F-35 comes along. an of course.. Buying up AWACS out of 737s

Army wise, we are getting a bunch of used M1A1's (IMO, worst decision in the history of ADF, along with the single Collin Class Sub).

BLUEJACKET · 10-25-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by silverster

To us aussies, there are two threats in the region: Indonesia

What would you preffer: instability in Indonesia or her breakup? I think that's a distinct possibility!

wdl1976 · 11-23-2006

I don't think Australian Army can be a regional power, it may be in the pacific compared to nations such as Tonga, New Guinea, Fiji etc (you get my point) and it tries to be a regional authority. But even amongst these nations it cannot assert its authority.

Overall army wise it is weak and average at best. To be able to defend itself without the American, it would not survived.

As an example the closest threat from up north (Indonesia) population of more than 10 X of the Australian. Given an ability to do a descent amphibious attack and protect the landing, Australia will not survive.

Most will argue Australians are better equiped and more technological advance. In some sense it maybe true. But if you come closer you will find out that its armed force is rifed with problems and inefficient.

Namely money blown out on projects (failed projects) the Collin class submarine, Sea sprite helicopters old F111 fleet (even the F 18s are considered almost obsolete). Internal problems within the Navy and army in regards to violence, racism and sex harrassment.

Its major independent operation so far has been east timor and it suffered by lack of funds, man power and Timor is still a mess.

So I think the Australian has a long way to go to become a power in the region.

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