China's Space Program Thread II

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The 5m diameter reusable rocket (likely CZ-10B) will maiden launch in first half year of 2026View attachment 166380

LM-10B maiden flight in April next year. LM-10B reusable liquid-fueled carrier rocket is 69.67m tall with a fairing of 5.2m. It has a 200km LEO payload capacity of 16t, a 900km 50° SSO payload capacity of 11t, and a 450km 45° SSO payload capacity of 13.5t, providing a solution for high-capacity, low-cost access to space.

CZ-10B has entered the engineering development stage and has completed key tests such as electrical system, engine ignition, common bottom tank welding of structural system, launch site modification, and scaled-down test of sea recovery system

China Rocket Company is working with Hainan Commercial Launch to demonstrate a dedicated launch pad solution for the Long March 10B/C rockets. The constructing Pad-3 & 4 of HICAL can support 20 CZ-10B & 30 CZ-10C launches per year. LM-10C will be upgrading engines (9x150tf instead of 7x128tf) to allow for enhanced capabilities.

 

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China's commercial satellite corporation plans an annual production capacity of 500 satellites in the first phase and 1,000 satellites in the second phase, with its production mainly consisting of Class A, B, and C flat-panel satellites.

 

[Tomboy]

LM-10B maiden flight in April next year. LM-10B reusable liquid-fueled carrier rocket is 69.67m tall with a fairing of 5.2m. It has a 200km LEO payload capacity of 16t, a 900km 50° SSO payload capacity of 11t, and a 450km 45° SSO payload capacity of 13.5t, providing a solution for high-capacity, low-cost access to space.


View attachment 166613View attachment 166614View attachment 166615

Does CZ-10B use methane as fuel? It's much larger than a Falcon 9 FT B5 (3.66m diameter, 69.8m tall) yet payload is alot less (18.5t for downrange recovery vs 16t).

 

[escobar]

Does CZ-10B use methane as fuel? It's much larger than a Falcon 9 FT B5 (3.66m diameter, 69.8m tall) yet payload is alot less (18.5t for downrange recovery vs 16t).

Fist stage kerolox and methalox for second stage

 

[Blitzo]

Does CZ-10B use methane as fuel? It's much larger than a Falcon 9 FT B5 (3.66m diameter, 69.8m tall) yet payload is alot less (18.5t for downrange recovery vs 16t).

Chances are there will be minor design revisions over time that will allow it to increase its effective throw weight over time.
There were quite a few subvariants of Falcon 9 with gradually increased payloads before reaching its present state. Chances are the CZ-10 family will see that as well, though in the case of Falcon 9 part of it was also due to improvements to its engines.

If one assumes that the CZ-10 family will not necessarily iterate its engines, then the gains in payload will exist in refinement of parts of the rest of the rocket over time to exploit more of the full dimensions of it.
Whether it makes sense for them to seek those refinements for the CZ-10 family at this stage, versus waiting for the future, is another matter and eminently it seems they're interested in getting these rockets launched sooner rather than later.


After all, CZ-10B's payload to leo reusable (16t) seems still a bit higher than the equivalent for single stick CZ-10A (14t)

 

[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002537752772927898

 

[gpt]

Does CZ-10B use methane as fuel? It's much larger than a Falcon 9 FT B5 (3.66m diameter, 69.8m tall) yet payload is alot less (18.5t for downrange recovery vs 16t).

Probably the staging is very conservative (lower altitude and velocity). Another factor is how the propellent mass fraction and dry mass, in particular upper stage, is optimized. F9 upper stage has a PMF of >95% so its extremely efficient.

 

[ZachL111]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002942963698266446

Apparently the Long March 10C is a new vehicle as well, not many details on it, speculation is rampant on Chinese social media as well, from what I can tell.

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The Hyperbola-3 launch vehicle, partially reusable, has slipped to next year, as we suspected already. A lot of testing and other maintenance has been done this month though, which is good.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003052367051477003

The Max-Q abort test for the Mengzhou should be coming up soon, from what I am hearing. That is the patch for it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2003059079179387363

AstroStone has completed their first-stage test of the AS-1 launch vehicle, in more good progress, using Deep Blue Aerospace's test stand that they rented.

My personal thoughts on the LM-12A, I actually for some reason think it will succeed on first attempt. I didn't think so for the ZQ-3, and I might just be hopelessly optimistic, but yeah. I really have no technical reason for this either, I just have a good feeling, as they say.