Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics

Originally Posted by Bltizo

So you're proposing risking J-20s to "degrade" the defenses of a CVBG, with unpowered munitions (like LS-6, FT series bombs -- only those can fit into the internal weapons bay at the moment)?

Ah, are you sure about that? I'm pretty sure there's room in there for a few missiles - just not as big or as long range as one might want for actually sinking a capital ship.

Originally Posted by Bltizo

Wouldn't it be easier just to directly use relatively cheap anti ship missiles instead of expensive J-20s?

Well, yes, but you need to get your cheap anti-ship missiles within range and give them targeting info.

Originally Posted by Bltizo

Support infrastructure as in airbases... Not carriers and its battle group -- F-22s don't operate from carriers, as I'm sure you know.

Are there U.S. airbases within F-22 range or J-20 range? If so, then yes, they could hit airbases. But I was actually assuming F-22s would operate from Guam with tanker support to extend their range and a carrier group providing cover for the tanker. But that's just my idea - lots of scenarios are possible, the details don't affect the overall approach, as near as I can tell. And of course everything I say about the F-22 could just as well apply to F-35s. It's just cumbersome to write "F-22 and/or F-35" everywhere.

Originally Posted by Bltizo

And that leads to the question on how much heavier the J-20 is to the F-22... And from pictures we can see it's no more than half a meter longer if anything.

I'm just going by other people's analysis - granted I don't really know. But in any case it's not the length itself, but rather what the length is used for. If it's just empty space then it doesn't have much affect. If it's filled with fuel then that's pretty heavy.

Originally Posted by Bltizo

One of the S requriements of the "4s" for J-20 was supermanouverability, which again, doesn't necessarily mean you have to be super light nor a high T/W ratio. I think the F-22's T/W ratio is slightly lower than the F-15's, but the former is obviously considered mroe manouverable.

I don't think the Chinese designers care about the "4s" requirements. They build the best fighter they can for the mission they're given.

Originally Posted by Bltizo

Can you say again what you mean by engaging the enemy "early"? Do you mean attacking the enemy's base of operations or attacking them as they take off or before they get within 500 km of the chinese coast or what?

I mean that there's a sort of bubble around a carrier where it can establish air superiority and operate at will. Basically the area within the combat range of its fighters. If a carrier gets close enough to a Chinese airbase that the airbase falls within that bubble, then the airbase is in trouble. Or at least it comes down to whoever has the most capable air-superiority fighters.

If the carrier is far enough away that neither side can reach the other, then there's no battle. You can send a few missiles, but you can't sustain enough of a barrage know the other side is out of commission.

But if the Chinese fighters have greater range, then there's a time where the Chinese can operate freely from their base - nobody can hit them - yet the carrier is in range. That's the time when the J-20 having greater range is a strategic advantage. Let them get too close and then your greater range doesn't really help (except that you can loiter for longer, as you mentioned).

As I said earlier, the fact that the F-22 doesn't actually fly off a carrier doesn't matter so much - the carrier group can provide cover for tankers, thus extending the effective range of the F-22. And of course they can launch their own F-35s.

Originally Posted by Anton Gregori

I don't think the Chinese designers care about the "4s" requirements. They build the best fighter they can for the mission they're given.

The best fighter for their requirement is 4S..

Originally Posted by Asymptote

Let's assume that the QWIP tech advances and improve, to have over 200 km effective detection range, even for LO aircrafts, how much time do you think a AShM that's launched from J-20 from a distance of 201 km will reach its target?

Just for the fun of it, let's assume P-270 Moskit (I know I know, Moskit only has a range of 120 km max, but let's assume China has an air launch variant in the future that has range over 200 km) - with a speed of 2800 km/hr, and launching from a distance of 210 km (just outside the QWIP detection range), it would reach its target in 4 minutes 30 seconds - plenty of time for USN to intercept and have a coffee break in-between. So, I guess you are right, with QWIP in the game, its will be hard for China even with J-20 to penetrate the defence, and will require a war of attrition to wear down the CBG until it literally runs out of ammos.

Actually, this is interesting kind of thought experiment. If a Moskit with a maximum speed of 2800 km/hr can't penetrate the USN AAW screen at a distance of 200 km (as it will require 4 minutes 30 seconds to reach its target), the logical conclusion would be to launch the ASBM from J-20 (I know this sounds outrageous, but bear with me).

For the DF-21D with a maximum speed of Mach 10 (12,300 km/hr), launching from the distance of 200 km, it will reach its target in 58 seconds. Still plenty of time for USN's to intercept. Currently, only the NASA X-43 can reach this speed. So it is not far fetch to think in the future China might have this tech.

The problem is that even flying at Mach 10, it is not enough to penetrate the USN air defence screen. So basically J-20 has to be twice stealthier so it can get into a range of 100 km undetected, and the hypersonic AShM has to be twice faster too, flying at Mach 20 (24600 km/hr) so it reaches the target in 14.6 seconds from 100 km range, which is probably not enough time for Aegis Combat System to react and launch the SM-3 to counter effectively.

Originally Posted by Anton Gregori

I mean that there's a sort of bubble around a carrier where it can establish air superiority and operate at will. Basically the area within the combat range of its fighters. If a carrier gets close enough to a Chinese airbase that the airbase falls within that bubble, then the airbase is in trouble. Or at least it comes down to whoever has the most capable air-superiority fighters.

This is what I am curious about. I know its a bit off-topic, but isn't it down to which side has the most missile to hit the other side? Since China is a HUGE LAND MASS and DF-21D is TEL based so it can be dispersed ANYWHERE and almost impossible to find. Its really down to how many DF-21D China can produce. So let's say China go panicky with encroaching USN CBGs (let's say an unprecedented 5 CBG groups), that would be around 1300 (260 x 5) SM-3 missiles capable of intercepting the DF-21D ASBM. But ofcourse, a CBG can only bring limited munition onboard, so for a Chinese air base it would require 1500 DF-21D to defend 5 CGS groups. (I am assuming each CSG requires 40 DF-21D to sink every single ships in the group after ALL of their SM missiles are spent to defend itself eg. the 1300 DF-21D used on exhausting the CSG SM-3 munition onboard - note, I am also assuming the best case scenario of 1:1 interception ratio for the SM-3)

Of course, this is all hypothetical, assuming QWIP stealth detection is on every USN CBGs, it would nullify J-20's advantage as a "bomb truck" to deliver any sort of payload to sink CBG as my previous post demonstrated. J-20 would need to be 2x stealthier and equipped with hypersonic AShM twice faster than DF-21D to be able to successfully penetrate the USN AAW screen.

Originally Posted by Asymptote

Actually, this is interesting kind of thought experiment. If a Moskit with a maximum speed of 2800 km/hr can't penetrate the USN AAW screen at a distance of 200 km (as it will require 4 minutes 30 seconds to reach its target), the logical conclusion would be to launch the ASBM from J-20 (I know this sounds outrageous, but bear with me).

For the DF-21D with a maximum speed of Mach 10 (12,300 km/hr), launching from the distance of 200 km, it will reach its target in 58 seconds. Still plenty of time for USN's to intercept. Currently, only the NASA X-43 can reach this speed. So it is not far fetch to think in the future China might have this tech.

The problem is that even flying at Mach 10, it is not enough to penetrate the USN air defence screen. So basically J-20 has to be twice stealthier so it can get into a range of 100 km undetected, and the hypersonic AShM has to be twice faster too, flying at Mach 20 (24600 km/hr) so it reaches the target in 14.6 seconds from 100 km range, which is probably not enough time for Aegis Combat System to react and launch the SM-3 to counter effectively.

Uh, you mistaken me. I was referring to QWIPs on IR systems to detect Stealth Aircraft, not ballistic missiles. But then again, Ballistic missiles are the 2nd thing outside of the sun that makes IR detector's jobs easier. There's a video you can watch on Youtube of the F-35's DAS system (which is it's IR optics) detect a Ballistic missile launch from over 1,000 km away.

The problem with making high-speed missiles stealthy is heat. If you can't eliminate the friction from the missile it's still going to be like a second sun to the IR sensors of the CBG. Another query would be, why would a CBG be 200 km away from a Chinese missile launch site? Finally, a faster missile either has to be bigger, get more efficient engines and or fuel and or aerodynamic design, or else it's just gonna get, well, bigger.

One more thing, missile speed in ABM is not as relevant when in A2A combat. In A2A combat, missile speed matters because if one is attacking another's rear, you'd need a missile that goes faster than your adversaries' aircraft. However, because this is ABM warefare, all the defensive missile needs to do is go up and at the attacking missile, do maneuvers, and boom. Unless your missile is slow as a rock, the DF-21 is cakes for any modern ABM system.

Originally Posted by IronsightSniper

Another query would be, why would a CBG be 200 km away from a Chinese missile launch site?

Actually, it would be at least 800km from the nearest Chinese coast. So it would be AT LEAST 800km from the launch site.

Using DF-21 as anti-ship missile is day dreaming. There is simply no way to acquire accurate targeting information - unless DF-21 carries a nuclear warhead and simply destroys everything within 10km radius.

Originally Posted by johnqh

Actually, it would be at least 800km from the nearest Chinese coast. So it would be AT LEAST 800km from the launch site.

Using DF-21 as anti-ship missile is day dreaming. There is simply no way to acquire accurate targeting information - unless DF-21 carries a nuclear warhead and simply destroys everything within 10km radius.

Uhm, you are aware of the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile project? Which is, AFAIK pretty far along

I know this is drastically off topic, but I still want to present my point. Seriously, why de hell everyone still believe the anti ship ballistic missile thing is true. It is impossible to develop, even for NASA in this day and age. A carrier might seem to be big comparing to a human being, but it is really just a grain of salt in the vast oceans, not mentioning its speed exceeding 60km/h.
Ballistic missiles themselves are very fast travelling objects easily exceeding Mach 10. it would be very very difficult to maneuver at terminal stage. Even if the maneuverability issue can be solved, tracking a carrier is also very challenging.
Satellite can only scan an area periodically at fixed times and long range radar stations use long radiowaves that could travel far but are not accurate enough to guide a missile to hit a carrier. The navy would need large AEWs and UAVs to track carriers and to guide the missiles, but these are very vulnerable as they are prone to fighter jets and Aegis Shield.
Even if these problems can be solved, there is still another fatal flaw in all ballistic missiles, is that they all have terminal blackout caused by intense friction with the air. I forgot the full name of this phenomenon, but it's pretty much cause by friction with air, it turns the surrounding air and the heat shield itself into like big magnets that block off all radar signal and all electromagnetic waves. This is not just in ballistic missiles, but also in re-entry manned capsules and spaceships. At this period, all communications are cut off. It would be impossible for the missile to find and track the carrier on its own and it couldn't received information from the outside. Preset guidance would be a joke, since carriers travel at speed excess of 60km/h.
So this whole thing is just a joke, I still don't understand why everyone are still so interested about it.

Originally Posted by johnqh

Using DF-21 as anti-ship missile is day dreaming. There is simply no way to acquire accurate targeting information - unless DF-21 carries a nuclear warhead and simply destroys everything within 10km radius.

I think that's what it comes down to - targeting. In the arms race between ballistic missiles and ABM systems, the laws of physics give the missile a clear advantage IF and ONLY IF they can be targeted accurately.

Originally Posted by Anton Gregori

I think that's what it comes down to - targeting. In the arms race between ballistic missiles and ABM systems, the laws of physics give the missile a clear advantage IF and ONLY IF they can be targeted accurately.

If satellite is used to acquire carrier location, by the way the data is sent to control center, the carrier is miles away. The the time the missile re-entered the atmosphere, the carrier is dozens of miles away.

If airplane or submarine are used for targeting, they would be taken out by the carrier group's defense in no time - and why not using the airplane or submarine as attack vehicle at the first place?

This kind of wishful thinking can only fool the fanboys and US congressmen.

What if the J-20 is not used to actually attack a carrier, but just to keep her distance and track the carrier for the ASBM, in conjuction with land based radar?

Originally Posted by IronsightSniper

Uh, you mistaken me. I was referring to QWIPs on IR systems to detect Stealth Aircraft, not ballistic missiles. But then again, Ballistic missiles are the 2nd thing outside of the sun that makes IR detector's jobs easier. There's a video you can watch on Youtube of the F-35's DAS system (which is it's IR optics) detect a Ballistic missile launch from over 1,000 km away.



The problem with making high-speed missiles stealthy is heat. If you can't eliminate the friction from the missile it's still going to be like a second sun to the IR sensors of the CBG. Another query would be, why would a CBG be 200 km away from a Chinese missile launch site? Finally, a faster missile either has to be bigger, get more efficient engines and or fuel and or aerodynamic design, or else it's just gonna get, well, bigger.

One more thing, missile speed in ABM is not as relevant when in A2A combat. In A2A combat, missile speed matters because if one is attacking another's rear, you'd need a missile that goes faster than your adversaries' aircraft. However, because this is ABM warefare, all the defensive missile needs to do is go up and at the attacking missile, do maneuvers, and boom. Unless your missile is slow as a rock, the DF-21 is cakes for any modern ABM system.

Yeh, I get what you saying, that's why I made the assumption that QWIP detecting the J-20 from 200 km away. And you are absolutely right, a hypersonic missile would be impossible to mask its heat signature due to air friction on the nose. But I have assumed that once the hypersonic missile is launched from J-20, it is already detectable by radar. I have made that assumption. What I am trying to get across is that, the absolute speed of the missile at reaching its target, is crucial. If the missile is fast enough, the defending AAW frigate would not be able to react to the threat, as it has to detect, discern, calculate the intercepting trajectories, launch the SM-3 missile to the optimal intercepting altitude. So if J-20 is stealthy enough to get very close, and fire an AShM before Aegis can launch its SM-3 to intercepting altitude, the CBG AAW screen would be broken. The question would now be...what is the minimum engagement altitude for SM-3?

Originally Posted by no_name

What if the J-20 is not used to actually attack a carrier, but just to keep her distance and track the carrier for the ASBM, in conjuction with land based radar?

And then?

So, you have J-20 to use radar to have an accurate lock on the carrier, accurate enough to guide a GPS(or Beidou)-guided ASBM? Then the data must be sent back somehow (satellite?). The ASBM must be prepped and fired. The J-20 must stay with the carrier (with radar on toward the carrier during all this time) without knowing if or when the ASBM will come. Never mind that the moment the radar has a lock on the carrier, the carrier would know.....

Somehow I call that a suicide mission...

Yes, there is still some chance to succeed in this very complicated setup.....but then, why don't we simply have the J-20 fire a couple of C-803?

Originally Posted by Asymptote

Yeh, I get what you saying, that's why I made the assumption that QWIP detecting the J-20 from 200 km away. And you are absolutely right, a hypersonic missile would be impossible to mask its heat signature due to air friction on the nose. But I have assumed that once the hypersonic missile is launched from J-20, it is already detectable by radar. I have made that assumption. What I am trying to get across is that, the absolute speed of the missile at reaching its target, is crucial. If the missile is fast enough, the defending AAW frigate would not be able to react to the threat, as it has to detect, discern, calculate the intercepting trajectories, launch the SM-3 missile to the optimal intercepting altitude. So if J-20 is stealthy enough to get very close, and fire an AShM before Aegis can launch its SM-3 to intercepting altitude, the CBG AAW screen would be broken. The question would now be...what is the minimum engagement altitude for SM-3?

People overthink these things way too much.

Forget about attacking the carrier in the defense screen. Take out the destroyers first. If you cannot take out the destroyers, when do you think it is possible to take out the carrier in the middle of the destroyer defense circle?