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The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

This is a discussion on The military budget of China in 2007 financial year within the Strategic Defense forums, part of the China Defense & Military category; The military budget of China in 2007 financial year is 44.94 billion dollars,which is increased 17.8% by last year and ...

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    ofone is offline New Member
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    The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    The military budget of China in 2007 financial year is 44.94 billion dollars,which is increased 17.8% by last year and which is equipollence to 1.66% of the China GDP of last year
    我国一贯坚持按照国防建设与经济建设协调发展的方针合理安排国防费。近年来,随着中国经济的发展,国防费用 有所增加。根据国务院提请十届全国人大五次会议审议批准的2007年中央预算草案中的国防费预算为3509 .21亿元,约合449.4亿美元。国防费预算比上年预算执行数增加529.9亿元,增长17.8%。国防 费预算占当年全国财政支出预算的7.5%。2004年国防支出占全国财政支出的比重为7.7%,2005年 为7.3%,2006年为7.4%,与前几年相比,所占比重大体持平。 

      2007年中国增加的国防费主要用于三个方面:一是提高军队人员工资和津贴标准,保证部队官兵及离退休 干部收入水平随着经济社会的发展得到相应提高;二是提高军队公务事业费和伙食费标准,改善部队官兵训练、生 活条件; 三是适度增加装备建设经费,提高军队在信息化条件下的防卫作战能力。

      我注意到国际社会有人对中国国防费非常关注,所以我介绍了今年国务院提请人大审议批准的今年国防预算草 案之后,我想指出几点。 

      1、从上个世纪的1979年到1989年,我国国防费实际平均每年下降5.83%。近些年来,中国在经 济发展的基础上,逐步增加国防费,但是这种增长仍然属于弥补国防基础薄弱的补偿性增长。2、近些年来,与其 他一些国家特别是大国相比,中国的国防费,无论是绝对数,还是其占国民生产总值的比重,还是其占财政支出的 比重,都处于比较低的水平。以2005年为例,2005年中国国防费约合306.46亿美元,相当于美国的 6.19%,英国的52.95%,法国的71.45%,相当于你们日本的67.52%。 

      2005年国防费占国内生产总值的比重,中国是1.35%,美国占4.03%,英国占2.71%,法国 占1.93%。2005年中国国防费占财政支出的比重为7.3%,同年,美国国防费占政府财政支出的比重为 20.04%,法国占11.41%,德国占9.2%。

      3、我要特别强调指出的是,中国坚持走和平发展道路,坚持奉行防御性的国防政策。中国的国防旨在维护国 家的安全和统一,确保实现全面建设小康社会的目标。中国没有能力也没有意图与任何国家进行军备竞赛。中国不 会对任何国家构成威胁。
    I will not translate the words above,because my poor English.

    And what do you think about this?

    This budget is nealy as much as Japan,and maybe next year China will exceed Japan.So,will China become a real threaten to Japan or USA?

    Do you think China will have the power to unite Taiwan and mainland? and when??

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    No, PLA is just in the beginning stage of acquiring some modern platforms. It still has a big to go. The interesting part is that it's military budget seems to be increasing at the same rate that the rest of its government spending is increasing. So the fact that the military budget increase is higher than economic growth is a little deceiving.

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    ofone is offline New Member
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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    The commerce surplus is increasing too,so the government need to spend more and a lot of place need more.
    In fact, the Chinese government consider that as the economy of mainland increasing,taiwan will be much more rely on mainland in economic area.And finally the nation will be united.It' like a kind of peaceful evolvement.Will it be possible?
    And if the USA intervened China to solve the taiwan issue,as the core interest of Chinese government,do you think China will use nuclear weapon to solve the taiwan issue?

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    Spike is offline Banned Idiot
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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by ofone View Post
    The commerce surplus is increasing too,so the government need to spend more and a lot of place need more.
    In fact, the Chinese government consider that as the economy of mainland increasing,taiwan will be much more rely on mainland in economic area.And finally the nation will be united.It' like a kind of peaceful evolvement.Will it be possible?
    And if the USA intervened China to solve the taiwan issue,as the core interest of Chinese government,do you think China will use nuclear weapon to solve the taiwan issue?
    It is unlikely that China would resort to nuclear weapons unless it was a retaliatory move. China is clearly outmatched in terms of its nuclear arsenal vis-a-vis the US; a first strike would be suicidal for China.

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by Spike View Post
    It is unlikely that China would resort to nuclear weapons unless it was a retaliatory move. China is clearly outmatched in terms of its nuclear arsenal vis-a-vis the US; a first strike would be suicidal for China.
    How you know how many nuclear warhead China has I guess you get it from FAS or strategy page column. No one has any access to China nuclear arsenal It is highly secret. So nobody exactly know How many nuclear missile China has But they say that they will use military force if Taiwan declare themselves independent win or loose.
    Last edited by Hendrik_2000; 03-04-2007 at 01:44 AM.

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by Spike View Post
    It is unlikely that China would resort to nuclear weapons unless it was a retaliatory move. China is clearly outmatched in terms of its nuclear arsenal vis-a-vis the US; a first strike would be suicidal for China.
    But there are projects be prepared in some instances,China will use nuclear weapons to USA.And even have a porject in which China will send all nuclear weapon to south pole and north pole in some uttermost instances.It's the most terrible project I ever heard.

    And this summer,in the "peace mission 2007",China and Russia will suppose to be attacked by nuclear weapon,and do some training.....

    It seems like China do not afraid to be attacked by nuclear weapon

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Most of the militay budget is used to increase the wages of serviceman. PLA adjusted the wage standard last year, which raised the wages doubled

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    Totoro is offline Senior Member
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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    It is rather evident that, save for a selective economic disaster hitting just China but not Taiwan, ROC just doesn't stand a chance in the long term. It can either A) increase its defense spending to try to keep China away, and bankrupt its economy in the process, or B) keep the spending at a sustainable level and eventually be 'forced', be it by peaceful or military means to reunite with the mainland. Of course, when i talk about long term, i mean at least two decades, if not more.

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by A Pirate View Post
    Most of the militay budget is used to increase the wages of serviceman. PLA adjusted the wage standard last year, which raised the wages doubled
    Except that the official figures are rot. China is far from just increasing the wages of its troopers - a big chunk of money is going on purchases. It's just that it hides it from official scrutiny. Even the official government auditors aren't allowed to examine the military budget.

    So let's see, what's the likely minimum? SIPRI was $41 billion in 2005. Add 14.7% for 2006 and 17.8% this year - that gives $55.4 billion. At the least.

    Personally I wonder what's behind this even faster acceleration. I don't think it bodes well for regional security.
    Last edited by FuManChu; 03-04-2007 at 04:32 AM.
    "Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by FuManChu View Post
    Personally I wonder what's behind this even faster acceleration. I don't think it bodes well for regional security.
    U.S. military spending has grown considerably over the last few years - I think it's currently about 4% of GDP. If you look at China's (less than?) 2% of GDP in this light, it's really not much of a response at all. China has other priorities, but it doesn't want to get so far behind as to be easy pickings.

    Then of course there's increased talk of Japan changing its constitution to allow offensive military operations. That's probably an even bigger driver for the Chinese than the U.S. build-up. You can argue about whether or not fear of the Japanese is sensible in the 21st century, but it's much more difficult to be objective when your grandparents were subject to a brutal occupation.

    ... Ami.

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by AmiGanguli View Post
    U.S. military spending has grown considerably over the last few years - I think it's currently about 4% of GDP. If you look at China's (less than?) 2% of GDP in this light, it's really not much of a response at all. China has other priorities, but it doesn't want to get so far behind as to be easy pickings.
    That is true, but the US is currently fighting two wars. I would be surprised if the figure didn't drop down after the inevitable pull-out. And while the US is engaged in those conflicts its resources are stretched further. Whereas China has only one part of the world to think about.

    But the issue isn't what China is spending so much as the rate it is increasing spending. The percentage increase has already been in double-digit figures for years and now it is accelerating even faster.

    You have to think of other countries in Asia like Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, etc. Do they really believe China is going to level its spending off in a little while? I don't - I think it will continue for as much as a decade, in which case China would be spending over $200 billion a year if levels keep to these rate increases (and that's just if you use SIPRI's figures, which are the lowest in the international community). That sort of thoughtless expenditure could easily set off a massive arms race in Asia and even a war.

    Then of course there's increased talk of Japan changing its constitution to allow offensive military operations.
    There are no proposals to allow offensive military operations. There is only the idea that Japan could be allowed to operate under the idea of collective self-defence. That would still require a particular friendly country being attacked first, so unless China is planning an invasion sometime soon it has nothing to be concerned about.

    More importantly no constitutional ammendments have even been put to the Japanese Parliament. If such "talk" was a concern, China is just shooting itself in the foot by giving fuel to those that do want to change it. Japan only spends 1% of GDP on defence at the moment - would China want it to spend 2% or even 3%?

    You can argue about whether or not fear of the Japanese is sensible in the 21st century, but it's much more difficult to be objective when your grandparents were subject to a brutal occupation.
    I doubt very much that is ever in the minds of senior Chinese politicians. It's more an excuse used by ultra-nationalist trolls (not you) to justify unacceptable behaviour.
    "Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

    --FuManChu

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    AmiGanguli is offline Member
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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by FuManChu View Post
    But the issue isn't what China is spending so much as the rate it is increasing spending. The percentage increase has already been in double-digit figures for years and now it is accelerating even faster.
    I'm not sure why the rate of increase is significant. I suspect they have a target in mind (say 2 or 3% of GDP) and are trying to get there as quickly as they sensibly can. You can't double spending overnight because building capacity takes time. If it were possible then I'm sure they'd go to their target (in terms of %GDP) much more quickly.

    Quote Originally Posted by FuManChu View Post
    You have to think of other countries in Asia like Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, etc. Do they really believe China is going to level its spending off in a little while? I don't - I think it will continue for as much as a decade, in which case China would be spending over $200 billion a year if levels keep to these rate increases (and that's just if you use SIPRI's figures, which are the lowest in the international community). That sort of thoughtless expenditure could easily set off a massive arms race in Asia and even a war.
    I wouldn't expect expenditure in absolute terms to level off until economic growth levels off - maybe in 30 years or so (but impossible to predict really). At that point they'll have expenditures comparable (at least in order of magnitude) to the U.S. I'm afraid that's just something China's neighbours will have to deal with. You can't expect a country the size of China to limit it's military to the size of France.

    India will do the same thing, although a decade or so behind China. So will Brazil.

    Quote Originally Posted by FuManChu View Post
    There are no proposals to allow offensive military operations. There is only the idea that Japan could be allowed to operate under the idea of collective self-defence.
    It's the general mood and direction that's an issue. It takes time to build a military. You have to prepare for contingencies well into the future. Compare to the concerns a lot of people in the West have about China - a peaceful country with relatively limited military. They're not worried about what will happen tomorrow, but rather what might happen in 20 or 30 years.

    Quote Originally Posted by FuManChu View Post
    I doubt very much that is ever in the minds of senior Chinese politicians. It's more an excuse used by ultra-nationalist trolls (not you) to justify unacceptable behaviour.
    Don't be so sure. I agree that hostility towards Japan has been kept alive by government propaganda, but it doesn't necessarily follow that they don't believe it themselves. The people in charge tend to be pretty old, and the events of WWII feel closer to them. Military planning would be very different if 20-year-olds with short memories and lots of optimism made the decisions.

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    Schumacher is offline Senior Member
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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by FuManChu View Post
    That is true, but the US is currently fighting two wars. I would be surprised if the figure didn't drop down after the inevitable pull-out. And while the US is engaged in those conflicts its resources are stretched further. Whereas China has only one part of the world to think about.
    ......
    So you're saying China should perhaps start a war or two like the US, then her spending increase would be ok ?

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by AmiGanguli View Post
    I'm not sure why the rate of increase is significant. I suspect they have a target in mind (say 2 or 3% of GDP) and are trying to get there as quickly as they sensibly can.
    The rate increase is crucial, because it has a huge effect on whether other countries bump up their spending more than they may have originally planned. Japan is happy at 1% of GDP for now, but ever increasingly rapid growths in the Chinese budget are going to put pressure on the Tokyo government to shoot their spending up too.

    As I asked, does China want to see that happen? I don't think it would, and you shouldn't if you believe Chinese policy is still being influenced by the last war.

    You can't expect a country the size of China to limit it's military to the size of France.
    No one does, but what's the point of increasing it so sharply if your competitors then increase their's by a lot too? Surely it's better to increase spending at a slower, steady pace and not ruffle too many feathers. Then you have more of an advantage.

    Compare to the concerns a lot of people in the West have about China - a peaceful country with relatively limited military. They're not worried about what will happen tomorrow, but rather what might happen in 20 or 30 years.
    People in Europe and the Americas generally do not see China as a peaceful country. They see it as being increasingly beligerant and nationalistic.

    The people in charge tend to be pretty old, and the events of WWII feel closer to them.
    They're not that old!

    Besides if they do think about WWII, what's to stop foreigners thinking of Tibet, the Korean War, Indian conflict, Vietnam, etc when responding to China?
    "Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

    --FuManChu

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    Re: The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

    Quote Originally Posted by Schumacher View Post
    So you're saying China should perhaps start a war or two like the US, then her spending increase would be ok ?
    Do you think the US should have invaded Iraq? If not, then China shouldn't do the same. Though if it wanted to invade North Korea (the only likely comparison) because of the WMD issue I don't think anyone would complain.

    The point, which you of course missed, was that because the US has got involved in two conflicts the increases in its budget is more justifiable. The US did not make those military interventions so that it could increase the budget. If China was drawn into similar conflicts, increases in its spending would also be more understandable. However China is not involved in any such wars right now - it doesn't even contribute that much to peacekeeping.
    "Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

    --FuManChu

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