SinoDefence Forum

ger_mark

My bet is that china will get the US economically already in this decade but I don't think they will get them in Military Ranking within out lifetime, alone because the US Navy controls all Oceans and China is pretty landlocked by Islands with US bases(Jap/Taiwan). And it takes decades alone to build a competitive fleet of Aircraft carriers.

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bladerunner

I recently read there was a falling amount of technocrats amongst the highest ranks of leadership. Appratnachiks (spelling) I hope you know what Im referring to, are gaining ground in the political leadership stakes, so i wonder if that will stifle innovation in the long run.

vesicles

Can you enlighten me what Appranachik is? I googled it and found absolutely nothing...

s002wjh

well i think for china to catch US in military tech and strength its gonna be a LONG time. china hasn't even developed a blue navy, while US already dominate the sea for decades.

lcloo

It is very unfortunate that being creative and innovative in not encouraged in China in the past. I don't know what is the present situation but they definitely need change of mind set.

vesicles

I don't think I am in a position to say too much about that either. However, in the past, innovation was not encouraged because of the socialist society in China. You got no reward for being creative.

Nowadays, it's a little different. In making money, Chinese can be as creative as they want to be, legally or not. You can tell how creative the Chinese can be by looking at how they make fake products. I once saw on the web about how to make fake eggs. These eggs behave like real ones even in the process of being cooked. I can tell you that we got some innovative people in China

Scientifically, people and the govn't care about making money and the potential to make money too much and forget that sometimes you simply want to do research for the sake of wanting to know. Someone may think it is waste of money and time to develop something that only works in the lab. This view, IMO, is too near-sided. Many great discoveries have been made by people who were simply curious and wanted to know. And later, these technologies become mature enough to be applicable in the real world. In scientific research, you simply have to have an open mind.

Sadly, many Chinese govn't agencies and even including Chinese scientists themselves focus too much on the money-making potential of things and the true scientific research, which is the foundation for all the flashy stuff, become stagnant. I see this view being very popular even among Chinese scientists in the States. Many of my Chinese colleagues only care about what makes money and what kind of projects can help them get a hot job in a pharmaceutical company and focus their project almost squarely on those things. The spirit of science is not there.

bladerunner

I dont know how its spelt but I think Apparatchiks......(whatever) is refering to people who pursue a political adminastrative career rather than a practising professional of some sort eg enginner. For instance Hu and Jiang before him were political administrators in tibet?

Here is the article i was reading

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ch...gle/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35847&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=863bbd96f9

CCP Party Apparatchiks Gaining at the Expense of Technocrats
Publication: China Brief Volume: 9 Issue: 25
December 16, 2009 03:40 PM Age: 21 days
Category: China Brief, Willy’s Corner, Home Page, China and the Asia-Pacific, Elite
By: Willy Lam

The latest reshuffle in the provincial-party leadership has validated a seminal trend in Chinese politics: the rise of party apparatchiks and the relative decline of technocrats. Early this month, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Organization Department announced two promotions: Hebei Governor Hu Chunhua was made Party Secretary of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, while Agriculture Minister Sun Zhengcai became Party Secretary of northwestern Jilin Province. Hu and Sun, both 46, have thus become the two most senior members of the Sixth-Generation leadership, a reference to top-level cadres born in the 1960s. Other personnel movements in the past year have reinforced the ascendancy of danggong or party affairs specialists over professional administrators. The Politburo will, early next year, begin preparations for the 18th CCP Congress of 2012, when the bulk of Central Committee and Politburo members will retire in favor of Fifth- and Sixth-Generation cadres. The preeminence enjoyed by a cohort of party functionaries can have a lasting impact on not only the composition of China’s ruling team but also the country’s policy orientations in the coming decade or so.

While Sun, a respected agronomist with a doctorate in agriculture, can be classified as a technocrat, Hu and the bulk of Sixth-Generation rising stars are career danggong with little exposure to portfolios in the economics, trade, foreign affairs or technology portfolios. The latter group includes Governor of Hunan Province Zhou Qiang, 49; Chairman of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region Nur Bekri, 48; Party Secretary of the Communist Youth League (CYL), Lu Hao, 42; Party Secretary of the Hebei boom town of Tangshan, Zhao Yong, 46; and Party Secretary of Hefei, capital of Anhui Province, Sun Jinlong, 47. Most of these young Turks are already in the Central Committee as either full or alternate members. Moreover, Hu Chunhua, Jilin’s Sun as well as Hunan’s Zhou stand a good chance of being promoted to Politburo members at the 18th Party Congress (China News Service, December 1; Ming Pao [Hong Kong] December 2; Global Times [Beijing], December 3).

There are several reasons behind the growing prominence of party apparatchiks. Firstly, most of them are ranking members of the so-called CYL Faction, which is headed by Party General Secretary and President Hu Jintao, 67. Hu Jintao, Hu Chunhua—who are not related—as well as Hunan’s Zhou are former party bosses of the league. Since becoming party chief in 2002, Hu and close aides such as Director of the CCP Organization Department Li Yuanchao—a Politburo member who is also a CYL stalwart—have elevated a few dozen CYL alumnae to important slots at both the central and regional levels. The most high-profile Sixth-Generation CYL Faction member is undoubtedly Hu Chunhua, who, like President Hu, had a remarkable career in the Tibet Autonomous Region. The younger Hu is even deemed a probable successor to Vice-President Xi Jinping, who is the odds-on favorite to become party general secretary at the 18th Party Congress, when the older Hu is expected to retire from the Politburo (Le Monde [Paris], December 5; Straits Times [Singapore], December 9).

President Hu's preference for danggong veterans over technocrats is in line with the practice of ex-president Jiang Zemin. Eight among the nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC), China’s supreme ruling council, are career party functionaries who have served as party secretaries in major provinces. The exception is Premier Wen, who has been both a party affairs specialist in the CCP headquarters and a State Council technocrat. In addition, 18 among the 25 Politburo members are either former or serving provincial party secretaries. According to the respected party journal Decision-Making, salient attributes of provincial party secretaries include the power of “political discrimination”; ability to grasp the “big picture”; capacity for strategic thinking; and ability to appoint capable underlings and to build a good image for the party (Global Times, December 7; Chongqing Evening News [Chongqing], December 6).

Most significantly, given their expertise in Marxist ideology, CCP dogma and propaganda work, senior danggong are considered more politically savvy and “trustworthy” than numbers-crunching experts handling finance or trade portfolios in the government. Since the 17th Party Congress in 2007, Vice-President Xi and Li Yuanchao, who are Politburo members in charge of organization and personnel matters, have made scores of speeches on ways of identifying neophytes with potential for top-echelon posts. While Third-Generation leaders including Deng strove to strike a balance between “redness” (ideological purity and political correctness) and expertise (professional competence), President Hu, Xi and Li have come down heavily in favor of de, meaning “morality”, and in the CCP context, political rectitude and readiness to toe the Beijing line. Li has reiterated that cadres being groomed for fast-track promotion “should pass muster in both de and competence, with priority given to de.” “Quite a number of cadres have gone astray not due to the question of professional competence but because of lapses in morality,” the Organization Department Chief said last month (People’s Daily, December 1; Outlook Weekly [Beijing], November 30).

By contrast, only a handful of well-regarded Sixth-Generation technocrats seem destined for the top. They include the Chairman of China Commercial Aircraft Co., Ltd. (CCAC), Zhang Qingwei, 48, and the President of the mammoth oil monopoly Sinopec, Su Shulin, 49. A famous rocket scientist who played a key role in China’s space program, Zhang served briefly as Minister at the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense a few years ago. Su spent his entire career in the oil and gas sector, except for two years as a ranking member of CCP Committee of Liaoning Province (Businessweek, November 4; lanyue.com [Beijing], December 2). According to time-honored practice, however, cadres who have excelled in the fields of industry, business and technology face a glass ceiling after reaching the level of minister. It is most unusual for technocrats to be inducted into the policy-setting Politburo. Zhu Rongji, the Deng protégé who was prime minister from 1998 to 2003, is one of the few exceptions of a technocrat who made it to the PBSC.

Moreover, even among technocrats who are expected to play a big role in central government ministries after the 18th Party Congress, few of them are “returnees,” a reference to officials and professionals with advanced degrees from the United States and Europe. For instance, both Zhang and Su are graduates of Chinese universities. By contrast, several ministers in the first and second Wen Jiabao cabinets, including Health Minister Chen Zhu, Minister of Science and Technology Wan Gang and former Education Minister Zhou Ji boast doctorates from well-known universities in the West. Wan, an award-winning auto engineer and Chen, a specialist on leukemia, also spent several years working in senior positions in Germany and France respectively (New York Times, April 10; Newsweek International, April 6). Partly due to their relatively sensitive portfolios, however, the majority of career party functionaries, particularly those affiliated with the CYL, have neither studied nor worked in the West.

The contrasting political fortune of apparatchiks versus that of technocrats may adversely affect the ability of the CCP to adapt itself to the fast-shifting realities of the 21st century. In major addresses on the future of the party and country, President Hu and Vice-President Xi have put emphasis on innovation and theoretical breakthroughs. For example, in his much-noted speech a year ago marking the 30th anniversary of the start of the reform era, Hu underscored the imperative of the spirit of “bold exploration and brave innovation” in reforming party institutions and government policies (Xinhua News Agency, December 18, 2008). In order to satisfy the “morality” criterion, however, danggong veterans seem more adept at demonstrating political trustworthiness and avoiding mistakes than at trying out new ideas that may be deemed controversial and ideologically suspect. Moreover, apparatchiks’ lack of exposure to areas such as international finance and foreign trade has constrained their ability to keep abreast of the latest economic and IT developments in a fast-changing world.

Even more disturbing is the trend that more and more graduates from top institutes of learning such as Peking University and Tsinghua University have opted for danggong careers. This is in the footsteps of both Hu Jintao and Hu Chunhua, who decided in 1966 and 1983 respectively to become party cadres immediately upon graduation from these elite colleges. The past few years have witnessed a phenomenal increase in college graduates applying for the post of party secretary or vice-party secretary in grassroots administrative units ranging from villages to counties. Last year, more than 66,000 university graduates were appointed village-level cadres. This was equal to the aggregate number of college-educated rural officials who had been hired for such jobs in the previous 15 years. Also rising rapidly are the numbers of male and female students who want to join the army upon graduation. A record 130,000 college graduates were recruited by the PLA this year. A stint in the PLA is a much-valued experience that can help young men and women advance their careers as party functionaries (People’s Daily, October 21; Guangzhou Daily [Guangzhou], October 31; China Youth Daily [Beijing], April 22). While this trend may have been partially caused by rising unemployment among new graduates this year, there is little question that college students see a bright future ahead as party functionaries.

The rising political fortune of apparatchiks perhaps explains the CCP’s increasingly tight embrace of the traditional canon. This has been evidenced by the resuscitation of Maoist values particularly in a number of central and western provinces and cities (See “The CCP’s Disturbing Revival of Maoism,” China Brief, November 19). By contrast, technocratic officials are much more conscious of the need to sell Chinese products—as well as China’s image—abroad in the age of globalization. As such, professional managers and administrators seem generally less willing to be identified with political campaigns of previous generations. Very much in the tradition of ex-premier Zhu and Premier Wen, they usually make an effort to steer clear of the ideological issues. The stranglehold that danggong veterans have over top-echelon slots in the party-and-government apparatus, however, seems to render it unlikely that China can make a clean break from orthodox norms of yesteryear

vesicles

They would be politicians then? I honestly don't see a difference. Yes, the Chinese leadership has been consisted of engineers, but they have chosen a political path even while in school. Most of these leaders were head of young pioneers and even the CCP organization in college. They would do their engineering work for a few short years after graduation, but they would spend the majority of their adult, professional life as politicians. Don't believe that these people like Hu who has an engineering degree would actually do engineering work. The truth is they have been professional politician all along.

Chinese politicians are no different than politicians from any other country, except, of course, they are promoted not elected. I believe that it is a myth that the Chinese leaders who happen to hold engineering degrees are somehow different because of their training. These people became leaders because of their political skills, not their engineering training. These people stand out even in school because of their political skills. One of my wife's uncles was a classmate of Hu in college, although in a different department. And he told us that Hu was very popular and was the head of many political organizations in the college. His focus had always been politics.

In other words, Chinese leaders are exactly like their counterparts elsewhere. They think in the same way, say the same thing and do the same thing, which is to survive the harsh political environment, beat their enemies in which ever way they can find and move up the political ladder.

vesicles

This paragraph suggests that a leader of a nation has to understand high-tech in order to develop high tech in his country. This is simply laughable. Look at the US, the most high tech nation in the world. Has there ever been a president who was an expert in high-tech/business/finance? Reagan was an actor, Bush was a professional politician, Clinton was a lawyer. Obama was also a profession politician. You can hardly say that any of them has a good understanding of science/engineering/finance/stock market, etc. etc. Yet, the US keeps being the leader in high tech. They got all the experts working for them. That's what the cabinet is for. What a leader needs is vision, not expertise in actual work.

bladerunner

True, but the political leaders have to sign off on the direction of any economic proposal.
Even in america the Pres. has to sign off as well. Look how Bush's restriction on stem cell reserch held america back in relation to other countries.

I think what the writer is suggesting a swing back to party ideology (whatever that might be at any particular time) being more important, when deciding on the approch to economic growth.
Ive read other articles which suggest aspects of Maoism is regaining popularity in the rural areas and smaller cities/towns?.

HKSDU

Thats a false statement. Not having a strong navy doesnt mean your military is weak, it just means your naval force is falling behind. Look at Israel their military is strong, yet they possess no blue water fleet. China has a strong ground force, and moderate rising airforce. Falling behind in one area doesnt mean your military is weak. The definition of strong is not defined as possessing a blue water fleet, it depends what you classify the word strong military is. China can structure its own military in a different manner to be strong. There is more then one way to power.

balance

If the number of scientists are declining in US, and the quality of education in US is also declining at the same speed, who will operate those carriers? You will see more and more accidents like Russian submarine or nuclear reactors. The economy is necessary to maintain and improve your existing fleet. It's nice to have a blue navy, but to maintain it for the next 50 years? It's a miracle if we don't hear more accidents and crashes in US military.

It's the people that matter, not the equipment. Make sure that US education quality remains good, then you can talk about "everlasting" US dominance on sea.

A.Man

If China will stay focused for more years to come, It shall leave the United State in the dusts. No one will give China freedom but China its self.

rhino123

Basically I believe that it will still take quite a while for China to rise in terms of military technology. At present moment although their growth is rapid, but they are still quite a distance when compare to US.

US is still the largest economic power in the world and they have solid military foundation which is very important. Although as many reports had suggested, US's scientists are dropping, but they are still having a much stronger base.

China is only starting to climb in the recent decades, in the 60s to the early 90s, China is still quite weak, especially after the cultural revolution, and so they have a long time to play catch up.

China's ground force is strong - on paper, still quite untested yet, unlike their US counterpart. True, they are beginning to receive modern tech weaponries and equipments, but that only happen in recent decade.

As to their air force, they being to have very modern aircrafts, but this air-force is like the rest of their armed forces - relatively untested.

China's military, up till this date, is still very defensive base, and we cannot just look at their hardware. A simple example is as follow,

Pilots piloting an F15E (untested and without much real life experience) vs pilots piloting F15E (very experience and tested). The latter will win hands down.

lcloo

by Vesicles: "I once saw on the web about how to make fake eggs. These eggs behave like real ones even in the process of being cooked. I can tell you that we got some innovative people in China".

Just a off-topic posting. When I was in China in 2002, our factory cook made deep fried chicken eggs almost everyday. It tasted rubberly, tough taste a little funny but we did not suspect that it was fake egg. It look exactly like real. One day some one mentioned that was fake stuff, he took a few uncooked egg and broke them open, it had egg yoke and egg white just like real eggs.

We poked the egg yoke with chop sticks and we still could not be sure it is artificial egg, later I found how they make fake artificial eggs on Chinese internet and totally convinced we had been eating chemicals for eggs.

Disgusting and almost unbelievable they can be so creative trying to make money.