Chinese Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms

there is a dout , i found more files on the internet of china , including photos and words . according to the pictures i post , we can conclude that DF41 is not deployed , it just exists in people's imagenation , whereas , i then found some words on DF41 in www.people.com.cn , which is operated by people's daily . it reads :currently , DF31,DF41 , JL2 and Changfeng cruise missile have been already deployed .so we aslo can conclude that DF41 exists in china's military forces.( 目前，随着东风31、东风41和巨浪2型中远程战略导弹、长风巡航导弹等陆续装备部队，中国的陆基、海基战 略打击体系已初具规模；发射侦察卫星、GPS卫星等已无技术障碍；在外层空间打击卫星的激光武器也在研制中 。)http://www.people.com.cn/GB/junshi/1076/2141095.html.


SO WHAT DO YOU THINK ?

I doubt the chinese government will reveal DF-41 to the public now or the near future, we do not even have enough information to substantially conclude anything on current ICBMs like DF-31 or DF-5. If DF-41 truely exists, I wonder how US will respond...

Originally Posted by ChinaWall65

I doubt the chinese government will reveal DF-41 to the public now or the near future, we do not even have enough information to substantially conclude anything on current ICBMs like DF-31 or DF-5. If DF-41 truely exists, I wonder how US will respond...

Actually, China isnt that isolated. During design and construction of a military product, the PRC government likes to keep a hood on things but after completion, the PRC government is willing to tell their people of their acheivements. First to show their people of their homeland's power, second, to scare the other superpowers. America, well if the DF-41 can reach 13000km, they have plenty reasons to go beserk.

I'm not saying China is isolated, in fact, china releases almost everything to the media except for nuclear weapons...think about it, how many photos of chinese ICBMs are there compared to tanks, or airplanes, etc.

It is okay to let other superpowers to know that a weapon such as DF-41 exists, but releasing specifications and capabilities will only lead to greater efforts to counter such weapon by China's enemies. If America suddenly discovers that its territory is threatened by DF-41, then it would deploy more and more ABM systems in Asia and will place political pressure on China to stop the DF-41 programm. In addition, if the DF-41 is constantly in the media, then its position might be exposed to enemies, which is disadvantageous should there be a nuclear war. Therefore, when it comes to nuclear weapons, showing off is not a good choice to make.

there is an anecdote . in 1980s , a professor of US told chinese officials that he could help PLA to improve his nuke-sub if he could be allowed to enter nuke-sub's control module , but an execute of PLA refused , he said " we sure fall behind US , but we won't let him know how much we fall behind him"

Originally Posted by ChinaWall65

I'm not saying China is isolated, in fact, china releases almost everything to the media except for nuclear weapons...think about it, how many photos of chinese ICBMs are there compared to tanks, or airplanes, etc.

It is okay to let other superpowers to know that a weapon such as DF-41 exists, but releasing specifications and capabilities will only lead to greater efforts to counter such weapon by China's enemies. If America suddenly discovers that its territory is threatened by DF-41, then it would deploy more and more ABM systems in Asia and will place political pressure on China to stop the DF-41 programm. In addition, if the DF-41 is constantly in the media, then its position might be exposed to enemies, which is disadvantageous should there be a nuclear war. Therefore, when it comes to nuclear weapons, showing off is not a good choice to make.

I did not mean by pictures, I just meant normal info. Many people knew about DF-31 after it was complete. In fact, I heard of it first from my relatives in China. Maybe china would not be willing to send much info out of their country. by they way, that picture above is just a artist's impression, the guy wrote it in the article. Oh and by the way, I would like to mention that US doesnt have any operational ABM systems, that would be Russia, patriots arnt designed to counter a ICBM, they are used to shoot down SCUDs (dont think Im trying to anoy you, just stating facts) , i just mean that China gives a rough idea to the public like range capability, length, etc. Thats all the article states above anyway, infact, that article barely tells anything about the DF-41.

Originally Posted by renmin

i just mean that China gives a rough idea to the public like range capability, length, etc. Thats all the article states above anyway, infact, that article barely tells anything about the DF-41.

That is correct, the article doesn't say much at all...China barely releases any info on its nuclear program...

Originally Posted by Yang Yang

there is an anecdote . in 1980s , a professor of US told chinese officials that he could help PLA to improve his nuke-sub if he could be allowed to enter nuke-sub's control module , but an execute of PLA refused , he said " we sure fall behind US , but we won't let him know how much we fall behind him"

The guy is contradicting himself. Clearly, he doesn't want US to find out that China's sub is behind US. But by stating that " we sure fall behind US , but we won't let him know how much we fall behind him," he just told the US that China's sub is behind US.

it's common knowledge that china don't have nuclear subs as advanced as USN's.

but the guy could be saying it to give the american a false view point, and confuse the other person.

i think i did not explain what i meant . we all know that china's nuke subs are not as advanced as us's , but others countries don't know how many years china falls behind , 5 years , 10 years or more .

PLA news paper first time report the story about strategic missiles loading on the train recently.http://jczs.news.sina.com.cn/2007-02-15/0617431507.html
in above pic, I am not sure the missile on the train is DF-31 or DF-41.
I read some magazine mention that DF-41 is too heavy can not load on the vehicle,some post at this thread is deffint oppinion, we see the pic and articles showed that DF-41 with vehicle.
intresting thing is US always predict China only has 21 strategic nuclear missiles - US dosn't think DF-41 is in operational of China.
21 strategic nuclear missiles are DF-5,already arranged in missile wells.

here is the link with more pictures http://www.****.cn/viewarticle.php?id=86325

link broke, mods please delete.

Before a new ICBM becomes operational, some real tests must be done. So far I haven't heard of a DF-41 impacting remote area in the S.Pacific.
There is insufficient information about the CSS-X-10 to determine its effective use.- And everything else you read on this link is just speculation!

The three-stage solid-fuel DF-41 is larger than the DF-31 missile, and has a range of up to 12,000 kilometers. While no information has been published concerning the configuration of this missile, the most straightforward path towards its development would be the addition of an enlarged third stage to the DF-31 ICBM. The larger third stage and longer range of the DF-41 is made possible by the fact that, unlike the DF-31, the size of the DF-41 is not constrained by the requirement that it be fitted into a submarine launch tube. The DF-41 strategic weapons system will have a mobile launch capability providing greatly improved survivability compared with previous Chinese intercontinental missiles. It is anticipated that the DF-41 will be delivered to the 2d Artillery around the year 2010.
In the absence of flight testing, the final operational configuration of this solid fueled missile remains uncertain, particularly with respect to the length of the third stage. However, this derivative of the DF-31 would be unlikely to have a throwweight in excess of 1000 kgs, and most estimates are in the range of 800 kg. Some estimates anticipate that, as with previous Chinese ICBMs, the DF-41 will carry only a single warhead [with a 0.35 - 1.0 MT yield]. In any event, depending on the weapon's yield, it seems unlikely that China would be able to mount more than a few lower-yield [50-100 KT ?] RVs on this ICBM. The American Minuteman III has 3 RVs and a throwweight of 1100 kgs at 12,900 kms, while the MX Peacekeeper carries 10 RVs and has a throwweight of 3950 kgs at 11,000 kms. Both American missiles carry warheads with yields of a few hundred kilotons.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/icbm/df-41.htm

Well the whole PLA strategic missile capabilities seems to be like a mystery within a maze and the chinese leadership is probably very intent to confuse foreign analysts with all measures applicable.

Although FAS is usually quite informative (but not very often updated!) the serene arrogance displayed in their brief DF-41 article could be misplaced.

Without doubt China had very serious problems in development of the DF31/41 family since the early 90´s and as Jeffrey Lewis, a leading expert on Second Artillery, remarked correctly it ´took damned long´to develop, produce and deploy the first DF-31A missiles. Nevertheless recent developments seem to indicate (e.g. Hu Jin Tao held a speech in front of Second Artillery officers last autumn and mentioned deployment of a new strategic missile) that DF-31A has achieved IOC finally. Perhaps the missile is deployed on road mobile launcher and also on railway launchers and in parallel the PLA has also introduced very advanced and innovative measures of obfuscation.

China has currently to make every effort to acquire the technological level of Russia in missile engineering but we should not forget about the fact that the USSR developed and deployed the mighty RT-23 ´Molodets`system (NATO Code SS-24) (solid, throwweight 4 ts, 23.3 m long, 104.5 ts mass, 10 MIRV, 10000 km range) based in silos and in special railway cars back in the 1980´s! May be a lot of people would be surprised that chinese engineers can achieve today what their russian counterparts could evidently do twenty years ago but my personal view is that I would not be surprised at all!

I suppose that in the coming few years a lot of people will be very surprised like they were after the latest ASAT test and my advice to them is : Be prepared for some additional to come!

Yes, I already posted some interesting links on related topics here.
They certainly could get help from Russian engineers who designed/operated those mobile ICBMs. PLA's secrecy is understandable: it would be foolish to reveal any weaknesses, and they wait till success is achieved before declassifying anything new- in order not to lose face. IMO even if their ICBMs can't cover all of CONUS, still 3 western states- California, Washington and Hawaii are very important in themselves!
I wonder if DF-31 has enough range to reach the US Atlantic seaboard if launched from W.China? It probably could be increased with a smaller warhead.
I posted some interesting links on related topics here.