China test ASAT II

China’s use of a missile to destroy a satellite in January put vital U.S. national-security satellites at risk, the top U.S. Air Force general said April 11.
“It’s not lost on this audience what a strategically dislocating event that was — on a par with the October 1957 Sputnik launch” that put the old Soviet Union ahead of the United States in space, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Moseley told a space industry conference.
On Jan. 11, a Chinese ground-launched missile shattered in low polar orbit its target, an obsolete Feng-Yun 1C weather satellite. Moseley said the missile was fired from a mobile launcher.
“That successful capability now puts the majority of our low-Earth orbit satellites at some risk, including the ones that are extremely, extremely important to us in our national security,” he said.
Referring to the “now-contested” space environment, Moseley said space-based U.S. systems “have to stay combat-focused.”
He described the threat to spacecraft from the more than 1,600 pieces of orbiting debris created by China in starker terms than previously used by U.S. officials.
The additional debris “makes space astronomically more dangerous than it was on the eve of the 10th of January for both military and civilian payloads,” Moseley said.
The U.S. Air Force Space Command, in written replies to queries from Reuters, said April 10 only three pieces of the debris created in January had reentered the atmosphere, with most of the rest expected to remain in orbit for decades.
“The Chinese ASAT test has certainly increased the collision risk to all of the roughly 700 active spacecraft with [orbital low ends] below approximately 4,000 kms,” or 6400 miles, Masao Doi, a command spokesman, said in an e-mail.
Such orbits are home to satellites used for a range of military and commercial communications, environmental monitoring and weather predicting, as well as the International Space Station.
China’s demonstration of its capabilities was the first of its kind since the United States and Soviet Union halted anti-satellite tests 20 years ago, concerned about satellite-threatening debris.
At the industry conference here, Northrop Grumman Corp. NOC.N said on Wednesday it had teamed with Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. to pitch small surveillance satellites to the U.S. government in a deal spurred by China’s test.
The test “heightened our interest” in sealing the deal, Jeff Grant, a senior Northrop space executive, told reporters.
The Northrop plan fits into the Pentagon’s post-Jan. 11 space equation because of the Israeli satellite’s small size and quick availability to replace disrupted satellites.

Originally Posted by Scratch

IMO, there are significant differences.
Missile tests happen (or should happen) in restricted air-space. Now for obvious reasons, you can't restrict a certain ... space-space. (I think you get what I mean)
In the enviroment where missile tests happen, the air will slow the debris' movement very fast and gravitation will then drag them down.
In space, where there is now air, the debris continous to move at several hundred od thousand m/s. Threatening every other spacecraft in that path. And it (the debris) will stay in orbit -and in the path of other spacecraft- rather long.

just think about the volumn of the space you are talking about, and the number and size of the pieces, number and size of saterlites, think about the probability to get hit.

Chinese had just launched the first Beidou2 satellite few days ago. What could this mean to PLA?

I have watched a discovery programme said that during the second world war American need 1000 bombs to destroy one bridge. In Vietnam war they have to throw 50 missiles for each bridge, but today American only need one.

I think the new satellite system would definitely upgrade PLA's missile power from 50 to 1.

The system will complete its Asian and surround coverage in 2008. Many countries around China will be covered as early as the end of 2007 because Chinese had decided to launch another 3 satellite this year.

Taiwan will have the worst impact because they have already had 1000 plus missiles aiming at them right now. The system will greatly upgrade the accuracy of those missiles. Of cource, we don't know how much it will impove. If the 50:1 ratio is true, that would be equivalent to 1,000*50=50,000 missiles aiming at Taiwan. I wonder if this asumption is true, would Taiwanese government still seek independence.

*The global coverage will be completed in 2012.

*Taiwanese defence force had just completed their exercise early this month. The result is they succefully defeated PLA invasion with the help of America, however, both Taiwan and China made a great lost.

*They also exercised some anti-aircraft-carrier tactics.

---------------------
Added:

The picture of Beidou2(Compass) system:


If Beidou2 is a system equivalent to GPS, why would PLA still invest Galileo?

IMO even is Beidou 2 is a success, having a backup system like the Galileo would prove invaluable in the future should any complications arise with Beidou so yes, i think china would still invest in the Galileo

Originally Posted by aikea

I think the new satellite system would definitely upgrade PLA's missile power from 50 to 1.

Taiwan will have the worst impact because they have already had 1000 plus missiles aiming at them right now. The system will greatly upgrade the accuracy of those missiles. Of cource, we don't know how much it will impove. If the 50:1 ratio is true, that would be equivalent to 1,000*50=50,000 missiles aiming at Taiwan.

Wow that should win a non-sequitur award.

try not to start one-liners alright?
-TUP

Originally Posted by aikea

Chinese had just launched the first Beidou2 satellite few days ago. What could this mean to PLA?

I have watched a discovery programme said that during the second world war American need 1000 bombs to destroy one bridge. In Vietnam war they have to throw 50 missiles for each bridge, but today American only need one.

I think the new satellite system would definitely upgrade PLA's missile power from 50 to 1.

The system will complete its Asian and surround coverage in 2008. Many countries around China will be covered as early as the end of 2007 because Chinese had decided to launch another 3 satellite this year.

Taiwan will have the worst impact because they have already had 1000 plus missiles aiming at them right now. The system will greatly upgrade the accuracy of those missiles. Of cource, we don't know how much it will impove. If the 50:1 ratio is true, that would be equivalent to 1,000*50=50,000 missiles aiming at Taiwan. I wonder if this asumption is true, would Taiwanese government still seek independence.

*The global coverage will be completed in 2012.

*Taiwanese defence force had just completed their exercise early this month. The result is they succefully defeated PLA invasion with the help of America, however, both Taiwan and China made a great lost.

*They also exercised some anti-aircraft-carrier tactics.

---------------------
Added:

The picture of Beidou2(Compass) system:
[qimg]http://image2.sina.com.cn/jc/pc/2007-04-20/28/U1716P27T28D2414F430DT20070420110335.jpg[/qimg]

If Beidou2 is a system equivalent to GPS, why would PLA still invest Galileo?

Definitely it will increase Chines military accuracy but even without GPS,accuracy can be achieved with Laser guided bomb but with greater risk and loss....

Investing in Galileo is a backup plan plus it belongs to EU and Nato,shall American destroy it to stop Galileo giving out signal for Chinese military,it will create a lot of implication for the Americans and affect the relation American and EU...

Chinese already started a variety of weapons with GPS application like Arty(PL-045 enter limited service),MLRS(WS-1),JADM and even cruise missile(HongNiao).

Threads merged. There is no need for two Chinese ASAT threads.

bd popeye super moderator

I thought this could be quite significant. Just saying that the ASAT was launched from a mobile platform. now, it was previously believed by some that they were launched from fixed sites, so would be easy to destroy if located, but this appears not to be the case.

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- China launched a satellite-killing
missile into space from a mobile platform that would make it
harder to destroy in a conflict, according to U.S. Air Force
Chief of Staff General Michael Moseley.
The Jan. 11 missile test revealed a capability that poses a
``significant risk to both civilian commercial systems and
military systems,'' Moseley said during a breakfast meeting with
reporters. ``The fact that it was mobile tells you a lot about
their ability to deploy and use it some where else,'' Moseley
said.
The missile test that destroyed an obsolete Chinese weather
satellite in low-earth orbit -- or up to 500 miles, where most
U.S. picture-taking spy satellites and commercial communications
satellites reside -- has drawn condemnation from several
nations, including Japan, Russia and the U.S. for introducing
weapons into space and adding to debris that can damage other
vehicles.
The test left a debris field of ``tens of thousands of
pieces,'' and ``China ought to be held accountable,'' said
Senator Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat and a former astronaut,
at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing today.
Moseley's remarks today where the first by a U.S. military
official on the record that said China used a mobile system and
fired a missile that shot straight up at the satellite.
``The fact that it was a `direct ascent' that was `boom' --
that was a good piece of work,'' Moseley said after the
breakfast in commenting on the technical prowess involved in the
test.

Hard to Destroy

Moseley's disclosure was significant, said Loren Thompson,
a defense analyst who follows military space subjects for the
Lexington Institute in Arlington, Virginia.
Moseley's comments mean ``it would be real hard to destroy
these mobile systems at the beginning of a war,'' Thompson said.
``The Russians and U.S. at the end of the Cold War were moving
to place all their nuclear weapons on mobile platforms because
they knew they'd be difficult to destroy,'' he said.
The U.S. in conflicts, including the 1991 Persian Gulf War
and 1999 bombing campaign in Kosovo, had major difficulties
tracking mobile tracks, he said.
Moseley said the Chinese missile test was ``a strategically
dislocating event'' on par with the Soviet Union's launch of the
Sputnik satellite in 1957, spurring a ``space race'' with the
U.S.
The thousands of debris pieces created by the shooting of
the satellite include about 1,700 measuring three centimeters or
more that the U.S. Strategic Command is capable of tracking,
Nelson said.

Avoiding Debris

Major General William Shelton, an official for the
Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on
April 19 that even pieces only of three-centimeters might cause
``catastrophic'' damage to satellites because of the speed at
which they move in space.
Nelson spokesman Barton Vaughan said in an e-mail statement
that the U.S. estimates ``tens of thousands of pieces larger
than one centimeter were created.'' U.S. satellites and the
International Space Station have been moved to avoid the debris,
he said.
The U.S. is especially vulnerable to interference with its
satellites because it is so dependent on them. Power, water
supply, gas and oil storage, banking and finance and government
services rely on satellite communications.
The military uses satellites for missile tracking,
intelligence gathering and secure voice communications.
Admiral Timothy Keating, head of the U.S. Pacific Command,
said he agreed with Nelson that holding China accountable for
any collateral damage caused by the debris it created ``is a
fair question'' that needs to be discussed.
Keating, in an interview after the hearing, said he was
going to talk with Chinese officials and reinforce the point
that the debris ``jeopardizes all manner of commercial and
military space vehicles.''

Originally Posted by tphuang

I thought this could be quite significant. Just saying that the ASAT was launched from a mobile platform. now, it was previously believed by some that they were launched from fixed sites, so would be easy to destroy if located, but this appears not to be the case.

Good to have some confirmation that it was mobile but it's not a surprise really as there's always been talk that it was based on DF-21.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baMZKLq8zKk

Interesting video with lots of inside info on the ASAT test.

Originally Posted by mxiong

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baMZKLq8zKk

Interesting video with lots of inside info on the ASAT test.

Ironic one of the points brought up in the Q&A was that the Chinese had the inability to predict consequences. Like Iraq? Like being comforted by the prejudice of Chinese backwardness that an ASAT test could not be accomplished for at least ten years? I could go on...

Yes, that video is filled with Western propaganda to make China look bad, as pointed out by the above message.

Another point I would like to make is that China is responsible for a fraction of the space junk floating around the Earth. Almost ALL of the space junk has been created by the US, Russia, and EU.

Thankfully, China understands this and will continue its space programs, like a full range of satellite technology.

Well I thought that the video was spot on on many things.

This short text with the video pretty much describes this.

"Further, such explanations view China as a unified, rational decision maker, rather than a complicated bureaucracy in which conflicting interests compete for attention and resources, and mistakes can be made."

I myself often use this viewpoint trying to make heads and tails of China's arms programs.

These are some of the points I disagree with the video:

1. The video shows: The two guys are professionals in China, and the two professionals even question their own expertise.

My Disagreement: Living and working in China for 12 years does NOT make you a professional about China. Look at most Americans who have spent most of their lives and jobs in America, and see how many Americans are clueless about America. Look at how Americans and Europeans have warred and worked in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia for centuries, and see how clueless many of these Americans and Europeans are about these regions. Rumsfeld was suppose to be a professional with a long, INSIDER experience dealing with the Middle East. Look at dumb Rumsfeld is now. Of course, some Americans stil believe Rumsfield is a genius. My point is that living and working in a nation does not make you a professional about the nation.

2. The video shows: The two pros said that China received more international condemnation than China expected.

My Disagreement: I read international news and based on my news, most nations did not condemn China. Overall, Latin America, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East had a response ranging from "interesting" to "now that the US told us about this test, please give us more information" to "Wow, China has proved that the US does not own space. China has given us hope to compete in space, too." Japan, Western Europe, and America were the ones who condemned China, but even then, Western Europe was not united. Another disagreement is that they have no evidence that China was caught off-guard about "international condemnation."


I don't want to write the many things I disagree with this video. I will say something positive in that the video's two "professionals" were spot on about how America and the European Union are using little information about China to make broad and detailed opinions about China, and America and the European Union should stop doing this if they are interested in building a real, if not better, relationship with China.