SinoDefence Forum

FuManChu · 09-17-2006

I don't believe China, or any other country, can mine resources from celestial bodies unilaterally. UN regulations specify that the ownership and use of "space" (both celestial bodies and the bits in between) has to be for the benefit for all countries. That indicates that anything mined/whatever would have to be divied up.

If a country like the US or China started sucking the moon dry of resources and took them back home to use there, it would cause massive political tension across the world - potentially leading to another world war.

So China should consider what the real benefits of going to the Moon are. At the moment I think the calls/rumours for a manned-mission are a bit of flag-waving, much-like the American plan to go back (because the Chinese can't go before the US goes again). What I would much prefer to see is more international co-operation to design new spacecraft and means of propulsion. Competition can spark change, but it can also force people losing sight of the bigger picture by engaging in pointless races and missing opportunities to make real advancements.

Vlad Plasmius · 09-17-2006

Quote:

I don't believe China, or any other country, can mine resources from celestial bodies unilaterally. UN regulations specify that the ownership and use of "space" (both celestial bodies and the bits in between) has to be for the benefit for all countries. That indicates that anything mined/whatever would have to be divied up.

Ha. Who's going to stop them? Really, we in the U.S. have already shown a pretty blatant disregard of the U.N.'s resolutions and regulations. China and Russia are no different. Has anyone come out and called us on it in any real way? Nope.

Not to mention there are ways for them to pursue unilateral actions and still find a way of making it "for the benefit of all". Just get a few of their legal experts together so they can find themselves a nice little loophole.

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If a country like the US or China started sucking the moon dry of resources and took them back home to use there, it would cause massive political tension across the world - potentially leading to another world war.

Well, then these powerful countries with their global navies and superior air forces will just cut the oil spigot off from anyone still using it and objecting to any of them not sharing the love. "Sorry, you want Helium 3 you have to go get it yourself."

Global cooperation is a pipe dream.

FuManChu · 09-17-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vlad Plasmius

Ha. Who's going to stop them? Really, we in the U.S. have already shown a pretty blatant disregard of the U.N.'s resolutions and regulations. China and Russia are no different. Has anyone come out and called us on it in any real way? Nope.

No violation of UN law by a permanent member of the UNSC has been of as great as importance as the mining of resources in our Solar System. People won't do much about a country like Iraq being attacked, but they will over future means to sustain their own survival.

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Well, then these powerful countries with their global navies and superior air forces will just cut the oil spigot off from anyone still using it and objecting to any of them not sharing the love.

Who's to say all three players will get there at the same time? It's much more realistic that a single power like the US will get there first and start operations. Then the others would start screaming and banging on the table like there was no tomorrow.

Besides, do you really think they'd work together to screw over everyone else? No way. They'd back their own allies against the others.

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Global cooperation is a pipe dream.

Then humanity won't survive long, because without co-operation it will rip itself apart in the coming decades/centuries. Anyone who survived would have a pretty miserable existence. Perhaps the future would be brighter if people actively encouraged humanity working together, rather than just make jaded comments......

Vlad Plasmius · 09-17-2006

Quote:

No violation of UN law by a permanent member of the UNSC has been of as great as importance as the mining of resources in our Solar System. People won't do much about a country like Iraq being attacked, but they will over future means to sustain their own survival.

Well, what are they gonna do? I believe it was Scott Adams who described how in his perfect society all but one of the guns in the world would be destroyed and that would be his gun. That way, if anyone wanted to question him they'd have to remember he has the only gun.

If anyone wants to question China or the U.S., they'll just cut them off from whatever their source is. Any nation powerful enough to be a threat would be highly dependant on foreign sources of energy. Any that aren't, well, they probably won't even care.

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Who's to say all three players will get there at the same time? It's much more realistic that a single power like the US will get there first and start operations. Then the others would start screaming and banging on the table like there was no tomorrow.

I don't know, we don't really have the same tenacity as China. Almost like we've lost our passion for space. I think China is more likely to end up there by the time they plan than we are. However, I imagine there won't be a very large gap in time. Russia may get up there pretty quick too. They have far more experience than China so it won't take them as long after deciding to go to the Moon. Europe will probably be last, though they also may get up there around the same time, don't know.

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Besides, do you really think they'd work together to screw over everyone else? No way. They'd back their own allies against the others.

Exactly. Each would hand out to whoever they liked, but cut off those they don't. It would be under the pretext of giving it to everyone, but politicized and turned into a competition. China would try to win favor by using its energy sources, we'd try to do win favor with ours, and Russia would do the same.

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Then humanity won't survive long, because without co-operation it will rip itself apart in the coming decades/centuries. Anyone who survived would have a pretty miserable existence. Perhaps the future would be brighter if people actively encouraged humanity working together, rather than just make jaded comments......

Actually, our general lack of desire to cooperate with everyone has been the main reason for our development. Right now humanity has no real reason to develop except to show up the Joneses as it were. We first went to the moon because we wanted to rub it in the Soviets' noses. Now we want to beat the commies again, except now we have a reason to keep going after only a few visits.

bd popeye · 09-17-2006

Space co-operation? Of course

. according to this article in April 2006 NASA invited the PRC to take part next week in an invitation-only Exploration Strategy Workshop to be held in Washington.

Maybe something we don't know about was discussed to make space exploration benifical for the whole Earth.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12408875/

Quote:

NASA has asked the China National Space Administration to take part next week in an invitation-only Exploration Strategy Workshop to be held in Washington.

The confab is seen by NASA as the first step in a series of activities planned for 2006 that will focus on defining a global space exploration strategy for robotic and human lunar exploration, including the role of the moon as a stepping stone to Mars and other destinations. This event will bring together representatives from a broad range of communities to work in multidisciplinary teams, exchanging ideas on the strategy for exploration.

The workshop is an outgrowth from President Bush’s visionary agenda for exploration of the moon, Mars, and beyond — a task he gave NASA in January 2004.

“Consistent with the vision’s mandate to pursue international cooperation, we are hosting 13 international space agencies, including China’s, next week at an exploration workshop,” said Melissa Mathews, spokeswoman for NASA's Office of External Relations.

NASA Administrator Mike Griffin was invited to visit China earlier this month by the China National Space Administration, Mathews said, and NASA is considering the invitation. “As for dates, there’s nothing more specific than ‘fall’ to report to you at this point,” she told Space.com.

Regarding where things stand today in terms of NASA’s cooperation with China, Mathews said: “Generally speaking, NASA is constrained in its ability to discuss new civil space cooperation with China until China addresses issues of concern to the U.S. government. Our current involvement with China is limited and consists of such things as low-level Earth science exchanges of data. There is no human spaceflight-related cooperation under consideration at this time.”

Cooperative agreements
On Thursday, Chinese President Hu Jintao was meeting with President Bush at the White House.

As a prelude to President Hu’s visit, the United States and the People’s Republic of China on Tuesday signed a protocol that extends for five years a number of bilateral science and technology cooperative agreements.

The protocol agreement was signed by John Marburger, presidential science adviser and director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; and Xu Guanha, China’s minister of science and technology.

“The extension enables the continuation of the ongoing exchange of scientific and technical knowledge, the pursuit of advanced and applied scientific and technical projects, and the augmentation of scientific and technical capabilities,” according to a U.S. State Department fact sheet. Areas identified for continued and potential future cooperation include:

Fisheries
Emerging and infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and HIV/AIDS
Earth and atmospheric sciences
Basic research in physics, chemistry and agriculture
A variety of energy-related areas
Geology
Health
Civil industrial technology
Disaster research
Roster of space projects
It's not clear how many of these areas may benefit by increased U.S.-China space cooperation, but China does have an impressive roster of satellite projects in the works.

At the recent 22nd National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colo., Luo Ge, vice administrator of the Chinese space agency, noted that in the next five to eight years, his country will be launching about 100 satellites, including meteorological and Earth remote sensing craft, as well as constellations of Earth-observing and disaster mitigation spacecraft.

Luo also spotlighted China’s multi-step program for lunar exploration, which is being kick-started next year by that country’s first lunar orbiter mission. By 2012, he said, China space planners will be landing a rover on the moon surface. And in 2017, the lunar exploration plans call for robotic lunar sample return.

Regarding the opening of a window in U.S.-China space cooperation, there are indications, slight they may be, of a potential — yet small — change in policy, said a leading China space watcher, Joan Johnson-Freese, chairwoman of the Department of National Security Studies at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I.

“I am cautiously optimistic, which is more optimistic than I’ve been in the past,” Johnson-Freese told Space.com in an earlier interview.

Security dilemma
U.S.-China space relations are a classic security dilemma, where two states are drawn toward conflict though neither really wants it, Johnson-Freese explained. The reasons are fairly straightforward and strongly influenced by the technology involved, Johnson-Freese suggested.

“Specifically, there is no distinction between space technology for civil or military use, since 95 percent of space technology is dual-use, and further — and really problematic — there is often little or no distinction between military technology that is offensive or defensive in nature,” Johnson-Freese explained. “So, fear of being exploited drives countries to view actions of others in zero-sum terms.”

All this is further exacerbated when there is a predisposition by one state to view the other as an adversary, or even a “potential” adversary. While strategically the United States talks about working with China, there are still other voices that talk about China as a potential near-peer competitor, due to Taiwan, the growth of China's military, resource competition and other issues of alarm, Johnson-Freese explained.

All that said, she added: “It is very likely that the lens through which the U.S. — as the currently dominant space power — will view any expansion of Chinese space power will be a military one.”

Security dilemmas, Johnson-Freese remarked, are by their nature difficult to deal with, but not impossible. She saw good signs in the recent visit of the bipartisan congressional delegation to China and talks about potential space cooperation in areas like astronaut rescue and environmental monitoring.

However, a change of policy to include cooperative space activities is still a White House call, Johnson-Freese said. A first step on this path, she counseled, is simply understanding the Chinese better and allowing them to know Americans better through dialogue

Sea Dog · 09-19-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vlad Plasmius

Global cooperation is a pipe dream.

I don't believe that at all. I think there is a more concerted effort to bring more participants into the ISS for scientific and technical space cooperation right now. Based on the article above, the USA is looking to foster some sort of cooperation with China in space.

I do believe China has a national goal of a manned mission to the moon. It would be good if cooperation got many participants to field a lunar base much inn the same spirit as ISS. I certainly believe that's doable.

Vlad Plasmius · 09-19-2006

Quote:

I don't believe that at all. I think there is a more concerted effort to bring more participants into the ISS for scientific and technical space cooperation right now. Based on the article above, the USA is looking to foster some sort of cooperation with China in space.

There are desires to cooperate, but every nation has its own goals and sees its own personal development as a status symbol. Many groups and nations have plans for their own actions in space.

Quote:

I do believe China has a national goal of a manned mission to the moon. It would be good if cooperation got many participants to field a lunar base much inn the same spirit as ISS. I certainly believe that's doable.

Unlikely, though it is doable.

oringo · 09-19-2006

There is another potential reason for us to go to the moon. That is, to use moon as a stepping stone for landing on other planets such as Mars. Launching from the moon is a lot easier than launching from the earth. There are plenty of materials on the moon that can be mined to produce fuel and other necessities. There are also possibilities that moon contains water ice on the dark side. If we establish a moon base that can automatically mine the materials, then we can launch Mars-bound supply ships from the moon, and astronaut-carrying vessels from the earth or ISS.

BLUEJACKET · 03-07-2007

China confirms Moon probe in 2007
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6423323.stm

Before it was a race betw. US & USSR, now it's former CW adversaries plus several other countries!

maozedong · 03-15-2007

The expert called China can deliver in 15 years the astronaut Moon http://www.sina.com.cn on March 06, 2007 09:09 New China net New China net Beijing, March 6 - (Reporter Wang Yang) nation commissar of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Chinese man-in-space flight project booster system original commander in chief Huang Chunping on 6th said, China has had in 15 years delivers the astronaut the Moon the technical ability. Huang Chunping once held the post of China launch vehicle technical institute vice-president, he when accepted Xinhua News Agency reporter the interview said, arrived, the project in the fund on time starts and so on under the ideal condition, China completely had the ability to escort to in 15 years man-in-space flight the Moon.

a.rahman · 03-16-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by PiSigma

the bottom of the ocean could be the future if they find a cheap energy source to power the world. and produce lots of other resources we want.. then u'll start seeing people investing in researching tech to build cities under the ocean. it's not about what's the future, it's about where resources could be found. we know that the moon have He-3, which is one of the reasons why people want to go there, because it's a good energy source. and outer space offer more living space. if ocean floor can offer that same, people would spend a lot more money on the R&D of it too.

I am guessing that He-3 is some kind of helium isotope; but what will it be used for? and will it be economical for the space ship to bring back natural resources from the moon?

Scratch · 03-16-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by a.rahman

I am guessing that He-3 is some kind of helium isotope; but what will it be used for? and will it be economical for the space ship to bring back natural resources from the moon?

He-3 could be used in nuclear fusion research and later in the power plants for example. Bringing natural resources down on earth might at first be just for scientific purposes, since it is very expensive.
In a further future however (and I might some decades at least) it might become economical to "import" resources from the moon for production. That will raise the interesting question of who has the rights.
I think according to UN the moon is a "heritage of mankind" (not sure of english expression). Then one can ask how those resources are to be shared.
But that's probably not the point of this topic.

BLUEJACKET · 03-19-2007

Quote:

http://www.atimes.com

China reaching for the moon
By Antoaneta Bezlova

BEIJING - When a People's Liberation Army (PLA) missile in January destroyed an obsolete Chinese weather satellite, the experiment revealed space capabilities that had until then been a carefully kept secret. Undaunted by the diplomatic uproar the test created, Beijing has taken another step in spelling out its space ambitions.

China's top military defense planning body has for the first time unveiled an ambitious blueprint for developing space science, which although defined as civilian research could be applied formilitary uses.

Top on the list of the country's space projects are a lunar satellite probe that will orbit the moon this year, followed by a remote-controlled lunar rover in three years. Other featured projects include a joint unmanned mission to Mars with Russia and the launch of the world's most advanced hard X-ray modulation telescope by 2010.

The space agenda was released by the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense - China's secretive military industry planning body - last weekend, while Chinese legislators were meeting in Beijing to map the country's economic course. The document promised that the country would focus on innovation and sustainability of space-science development to "serve the national economy and security".

A project of political prestige above all, China's space program is believed to cost about US$2 billion annually. But despite its modest budget (in comparison, the 2006 budget of the United States' space agency, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration, was $16 billion), experts believe China's progress in mastering space technology has been remarkable, not least because the country has been forced to go it alone.

True, China's manned space flights in 2003 and 2005 were meant primarily as symbolic messages to the world that by projecting its technological and economic power the country is a force to be taken seriously.

Since then, however, a string of successful commercial or government satellite launches have reaffirmed China's space ambitions. After languishing for years in the absence of foreign clients, China's satellite-launch industry experienced nothing short of a boom in 2006, when a record eight launches were completed.
Chinese engineers are now busy preparing for Shenzhou VII, China's third manned space foray, planned for next year. Officials say the mission's astronauts will perform another first - walking in space.

Of more immediate significance is China's plan to fast-track its lunar-exploration program by launching a moon orbiter this year. This is to be followed by a second-phase project involving unmanned lunar landers.

Further missions set for 2012-17 will involve collecting and returning lunar samples to Earth.

China's goal to land astronauts on the moon can surely be achieved in 15 years, Huang Chunping, former commander-of-chief of the launch-vehicle system of the country's manned space mission, told the media last week.

Another leading space scientist, however, admitted that China is still a long way from perfecting the technology to land astronauts on the moon. The main technological challenge is the low thrust of Chinese rockets.

"Moon landing needs a rocket with 3,000-4,000 tons of thrust, but currently the most powerful thrust carrier rocket is at around 600 tons," Luan Enjie, chief commander of the country's lunar-exploration program, said last week.

Nevertheless, Beijing is working on a new generation of carrier rocket, designed to launch a space station. According to Huan, the new launch vehicle - Long March-5 - will be capable of hauling 25 tons of payload, a significant increase from the current-generation vehicle, which has capacity of only 9 tons.

If realized, China's moon ambitions would put the country in the same league as the world's two space-technology giants, Russia and the United States.

That much was evident already when China fired an anti-satellite (ASAT) test missile this year, proving that it has mastered the technology pioneered by the US and Russia in the mid-1980s.

When speaking about the efforts China has invested in developing its lunar program, government officials often like to emphasize the fact that many of its milestones were reached single-handedly.

Some 10,000 experts and technicians took part in developing the lunar orbiter - named Chang'e after a Chinese folk-tale moon fairy, Luan Enjie told the media last week.

"Starting from scratch, we developed the Chang'e-I lunar orbiter and the whole subsidiary project by ourselves within three years," he said.

The stress on doing it alone is because for years the United States has barred China from participating in any space launch that involves US technology and from work involving the International Space Station.

The ban is meant to punish China for missile-technology sales to what the US perceives of as "rogue states", such as Iran. But insiders believe it is also aimed at protecting the domestic US launch market from competition.

The US military has also long regarded China's space ambitions with suspicion, and hardliners such as former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld liked to point out how the development of the country's manned space program would serve Beijing in improving its military space systems.

Not surprisingly, in the aftermath of China's ASAT test, the US State Department threatened to reconsider a freshly signed 2006 agreement with Beijing on cooperation in moon exploration.

However, the US refusal to cooperate has not impeded China's space ambitions. It has only led China to pursue collaborative partnerships with space programs in other countries.

These include Russia, which has contributed technology for the design of China's manned Shenzhou missions and which has now been revealed as Beijing's partner for the future mission to Mars.

China has also forged alliances with various European satellite makers and in 2004 signed up as a partner and investor in the European Union's Galileo project.

(Inter Press Service)

As for He3, noone knows for sure if it will be feasible to build powerplants needed to utilize it here on Earth.
http://books.slashdot.org/article.pl.../01/13/1444253

http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=14699

Quote:

Humans can destroy Moon trying to produce helium-3 solar isotope

19.01.2007 Source: URL: http://english.pravda.ru/science/ear...-helium_moon-0

There is a dangerous tendency in the Russian manned space technology and exploration. Some scientists believe that the extraction of natural resources on the Moon should be viewed as a main purpose of the lunar program. The mining of helium-3, the “solar isotope, on Earth’s natural satellite, is the cornerstone of such a concept. Helium-3 used as a thermonuclear fuel is alleged to be capable of providing mankind with immense advantages in terms of energy. Many an expert have already expressed their skepticism about a helium mining project on the Moon, stressing the point that it would entail astronomical costs. More importantly, the costs would be totally unjustified. Suffice it to say, that 100 million tons of lunar soil would have to be processed for the production of one ton of the isotope.

It is still unclear what is to be done about helium-3 should the isotope be delivered to Earth. Further development of reactors running on deuterium and tritium is currently the most promising and feasible area of research in thermonuclear power engineering. Both deuterium and tritium occur in abundance in the ocean. One of such reactors, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, is being built in France.

In August 2005, the French researcher P. E. Schtott published an article in the British journal Physics of Plasma and Controlled Reaction. He pointed out that “even under the most favorable circumstances possible the ignition of reaction (of deuterium and helium-3) would require… much higher plasma characteristics than those necessary for triggering the reaction of deuterium and tritium.” Academician Evgeny Velikhov, president of the Kurchatov Institute, a Russian research center, shares the viewpoint: “We need to learn how to burn helium before we start bringing it down to Earth. We don’t have to go to the Moon for doing so.”

It is noteworthy that John Marburger, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House, made a special reference to the controversial issue of helium production while delivering a speech at the American Aeronautical Society on March 15, 2006. His speech concerned the ways of attracting private companies to the implementation of the officially declared U.S. lunar exploration program. “I’m not talking about the production of helium-3 for the purpose of using it as a fuel for a thermonuclear reactor. I have my doubts that the project will ever pay off,” said Marburger.

The plans for mining of helium-3 on the Moon may divert significant intellectual, production and economic capabilities of the country from the implementation of more feasible and less costly space programs e.g. a manned space mission to Mars. Academician Roald Sagdeyev, the former director of the Institute of Space Studies, is confident that “today’s intentions to mine natural resources on the Moon can utterly discredit the manned space exploration and technology in the eyes of both the taxpayers and politicians. It will be seen as a kind of cardsharping aimed at uncontrolled and unaccounted appropriation of colossal budget funds.”

Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Translated by Guerman Grachev

BLUEJACKET · 03-29-2007

A new piece of space news-

Quote:

Russia, China aim for Red Planet
China will launch a joint mission with Russia to Mars, a "milestone" in space co-operation between the two countries.
The agreement was signed during a three-day visit to Russia by China's president Hu Jintao.

The move follows pledges by Moscow to work more closely with the Chinese on missions to Mars and the Moon.

A small satellite developed by China will piggyback on the Russian launch of a spacecraft called "Phobos Grunt", probably in October 2009.

In a statement, the China National Space Administration said the agreement "indicates the two sides have taken a key step forward to working together on a large space programme."

After entering orbit around the Red Planet, the Chinese micro-satellite will detach from the Russian spacecraft, and probe the Martian space environment, according to the statement.

The Russian spacecraft will touch down on the Martian moon Phobos and collect soil samples for return to Earth.

There was no mention of a timetable in the Chinese space agency statement. But earlier Russian reports said the launch window for the 10-11 month voyage to Phobos, Mars' largest moon, will be in October 2009.

The agreement was signed by the China National Space Administration head Sun Laiyan and Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) chief Anatoly Perminov and witnessed by the two countries' presidents.

China is working on a three-stage plan for exploration of the Earth's Moon, which includes sending a lunar orbiter called Chang'e-1 some time this year, followed by a soft landing in 2012 and the return of lunar samples in another five years.

A UK team has also been developing a concept mission to land a spacecraft on the potato-shaped moon Phobos. It would act as a technology demonstrator for a mission to bring Martian rocks back to Earth.

Both Europe and the US have made the objective of returning Martian samples to Earth laboratories a top priority for their space programmes. A joint venture is likely to occur within the next 15-20 years.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/h...ch/6506539.stm

By hitching a ride on Russian spacecraft, they save time & $$$!

jack.sparow · 03-30-2007

now,more and more the world people attention to China's space program And what steps our country. one world one moon! one moon one dream!

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