SinoDefence Forum

Finn McCool

This is the sort of situation I've been talking about for a while. Would the PLA be able to rescue/evacuate its citizens from a small, weak nation like the Solomon Islands, or invade it? This isn't resticted to the Solomons, it is just a good example. Chinese logistical, naval and special forces capability would probably be good enough, in my opinion, but the would definately have many more problems than for example the US did in the invasion if Panama. Basically the topic is "Is China able to wage a small, short war against a weak nation in order to protect its growing international interests, even though it is a great distance from China and has an abundance of weapons?" Examples of countries that might see a Chinese "intervention" in this manner are Central asian countries, the Solomons, Nepal, Brunei, esentially places that are a bit unstable and where China has citizens and interests.

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bd popeye

I don't think the PLA has the ablity to invade the Solomons like the US did Panama in '89. But I think they would have the ablity to rescue a group of PRC citizens from such a place.

The PLA forces lack the logistical capability to invade as of this moment. No forward bases. Lack of airlift ability. Lack of sealift. Limited airborne refueling ability.

A rescue mission would be quite different. You just need a small highly trained force that has only one mission..rescue. Quick in..perform the rescue and return to the PRC. Basically you need to gain a landing zone. Secure it. Perform the rescue and leave as quickly as possible. That can be done by PLA forces.

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Roger604

Remember that episode back in the mid-90's when Indonesia was ethnic cleansing its Chinese population? There are millions of ethnic Chinese in Indonesia and they've been there for generations. There were a lot of rapes, according to reports.

This would be the kind of scenario where a PLAN aircraft carrier could provide humanitarian assistance and security. Going through the UN is another option, but it takes a lot more time.

Finally, China has fought small border skirmishes with bordering countries. But it historically has not acted on impulse but waited until things got really ugly, like the Sino-Vietnamese conflict.

Vlad Plasmius

Considering the Solomon Islands have no military capability. . . . . . . uh.. . . . . yeah. The Chinese could certainly do this. Just three or four Il-76s drop in and unload like 570 troops and completely dominate the islands then evacuate any citizens. It wouldn't take much force, would quickly end, and provide a suitable base for future operations.

Finn McCool

This is why I think the PLAN needs to have an Indian Ocean base, so it can react all around the reigion very quickly. China should gear its future military development not towards a very unlikely was with the United Staes, but towards smaller conflicts China is engaged in to protect its economic interests.

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Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

FuManChu

Which is why I've always said an LPH would be better for China in the short-term than a platform to launch strike-aircraft

I like the idea of China going to the UN for help - doesn't it insist that nations should stay out of the internal affairs of other countries, regardless of what's going on there?

*cough* DARFUR *cough* DARFUR

Ah, what irony there would be.....

Pop is right. Invasion would be difficult, rescue would be a lot simpler. He said it a lot better than I could, so I'll leave it there

Vlad, the French had difficulty pacifying a few island natives armed with bows & arrows, despite sending in the cream of their armed forces. When your supply lines are overstretched/non-existant then one slip-up can end a military endeavour. Of course if any such government raised the white flag at the sign of a PLA helo, then fair enough. But if they tried to fight it wouldn't necessarily be that easy.

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FriedRiceNSpice

This is the French you're talking about here... the only strategy that ever worked for them was the I Surender Attack, succesfully executed against great odds during WWII. How can a bow even manage to kill a modern soldier?

Gollevainen

same way as it killed acient soliders...

...But i advice you to not making such a lame and immature comments about french, Remeber you are on the edge with two warnings already, don't get a third from silly countrybashings like these...

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Dongfeng

Theoretically China has the capability to use naval forces to evacuate her citizens from Solomon, but it will take PLA Navy weeks to moblise its ships and forces before a taks group/force can be dispatched, which would be too late for an emergency situation like this.

However, from legal point of view, there is no reason why China needs to send military forces to evacuate its citizens. The riots were started by general public, not by Solomon government (and its government had no intension to do so). So the two countries are not in the state of war. Unless the situation gets much worse, charted civil aircraft would be enough to fulfil the mission.

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FreeAsia2000

Exactly.

Also China does not want to create the perception that it engages in gunboat
diplomacy which would have grave consequences for the other ethnic han people living in south east asia.

It would be best to mount a rescue attempt

DPRKPTboat

I was going to open a new thread on the same topic, but seeming as someone has already done that, I'll post my ideas here. I had a thought about possible small war scenarios China might get involved in as it becomes more powerful. Heres an alternative example form the solomons. Lets say if China decides to join a coalition against a certain country threatening international interests or commiting mass atrocities, or if it finds a certain poorer country suppourting terrorists in areas such as Xinjiang. In this case there would probably be no invasion, but an aerial bombing campaign.
My question is - would China be able to mount a precision guided bombing campaign against a smaller and poorer power, like America did with Libya in the 80s and Serbia in the 90s? In my opinion, the scenario would involve H-6 missile bombers firing KD-65 precision missiles at key targets, and then waves of J-10s, Su-30s and possibly JH-7s mounting a precision bombing campaign against military targets, probably air bases and air defences. Long-range cruise missiles may be used if China can develop them. Comments please.

isthvan

I think that PLAAF momentarily can not do it ... PLAAF do not have real aerial refueling capability’s to operate outside region or any real SEAD capability to destroy enemy air defenses and they lack electronic warfare systems for jamming enemy communications and radar systems... PLAAF have fighters and bombers for job but like PLAN lacks logistics capability’s for that kind of war...

Finn McCool

I think China would use its ballistic and missle capability to blanket the enemies most powerful air defence capabilites, such as SAM batteries. That way, you have a pretty good chance of destroying the target (especially becuase poorer countries lack the integrated radar and air defence capability to withstand a large missle attack.) without loosing any valueable J-10s SU-30s (eventually) FC-1s. Then what was still functioning of the air defence network would be picked apart as DPRK was saying. The more nimble craft would then go in to destroy ground targets and the enemies air force.

This could not be eaisily done far away from China. Lacking aerial refueling, Ships capable of conducting crusie missle attacks against targets on land and any sort of foreign base network, China simply can't engage in this sort of "small war." It can mount a rescue mission into the Solomons, but I was just using that as an example. It is interesting to think that China can give the USN a severe bloody nose, but would have a lot of trouble taking down, say, Brunei, Papua New Guinea, or any country outside of East Asia, no matter how weak.

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Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
-Winston Churchill

isthvan

Congratulations you have just managed to kill half of civilian population around SAM sites and destroy maybe 1/20 of SAMs and that only if they were to stupid to move them from known sites... You know like Serbs did . How on h... you think to destroy SAMs with ballistics missiles? They do not have enough accuracy for something like that, SAM batteries are mobile systems and not enemy airfields... So you would cause severe casualties to civilian population, spend hundred millions of dollars worth BM and turn public opinion in enemy’s favor without cousing any damage to its air defenses…

Nethappy

Well if it was a war against a neighbouring a dozen of conventional arm IRBM or MRBM lauched simultaneously aimed at high value Military targat and Airfield would keep enemy air defence buzy. During this time, it would make it easy to lauch a SEAD style strike with the SU-30 and it KH-31P. The JH-7 and when the J-10 become operational could use KH-31P to support the SEAD mission for a more important attack and make sure enemy airfield redeem useless. The H-6 Bomber can use there KD-63 at standoff range to destory command post.

The SU-27 and J11 would supply Air-defence with the support of these prototype AEW&C system.

If they manage to pull this off, it effeicently gain air superiority. But this only work against some of the smaller state for example Vietnam.