An Analysis of Size and Structure of the Army of Reunified Korea

Iraq is a relatively flat country. Did anyone remember how long it took for US to drive to Baghdad?

Do we know how much supply a million man army needs a day?

The approach for China would be to follow 'you fight your war, I fight mine approach'. Have the troops in Manchuria to avoid direct engagement with Korean troops, but harrass their supply line after their main force has passed. Mean while troops from beijing will try to held on to front line and reserves can be called in from the rest of China.

Again, it still takes good old infantry to hold ground. Did anyone remember how much troop Beijing was able to direct into Sichuan immediately after the 2008 earthquake?

Also, while the reserve number of the Koreas may look impressive, I serious doubt they had enough weapons for all of them. And are we expecting them to walk to places that need defending, pool cars or maybe use the bus? What's the strategic oil reserves inside Korea if wars cannot be bought to an end fast enough?

If SK is to be assigned against Beijing MR and NK against Shenyang MR, then the Shenyang MR should deny major engagements that NK seeks, and let them run out of steam. The NK then face the decision of further pursuing Shenyang MR or join SK in attacking beijing. If it was the latter, then Shenyang will harrass their lines while they are breaking off. Plus if you split NK and SK to face different MRs, then you essentially will only have SK forces pushing towards the chicken neck.

Second artillery missiles will not be attacking transport routes in China, but those in Korea.

Originally Posted by no_name

Iraq is a relatively flat country. Did anyone remember how long it took for US to drive to Baghdad?

Do we know how much supply a million man army needs a day?

The approach for China would be to follow 'you fight your war, I fight mine approach'. Have the troops in Manchuria to avoid direct engagement with Korean troops, but harrass their supply line after their main force has passed. Mean while troops from beijing will try to held on to front line and reserves can be called in from the rest of China.

Again, it still takes good old infantry to hold ground. Did anyone remember how much troop Beijing was able to direct into Sichuan immediately after the 2008 earthquake?

Also, while the reserve number of the Koreas may look impressive, I serious doubt they had enough weapons for all of them. And are we expecting them to walk to places that need defending, pool cars or maybe use the bus? What's the strategic oil reserves inside Korea if wars cannot be bought to an end fast enough?

If SK is to be assigned against Beijing MR and NK against Shenyang MR, then the Shenyang MR should deny major engagements that NK seeks, and let them run out of steam. The NK then face the decision of further pursuing Shenyang MR or join SK in attacking beijing. If it was the latter, then Shenyang will harrass their lines while they are breaking off. Plus if you split NK and SK to face different MRs, then you essentially will only have SK forces pushing towards the chicken neck.

Second artillery missiles will not be attacking transport routes in China, but those in Korea.

On average, probably half a ton per person per day. However, captured civilian fuel can be used, and captured weapons and ammunition can be used by NK troops.

If united Korean troops captured the chicken neck, Shenyang MR is going to be cut off from supply. As such, they cannot sustain combat effectiveness as a regular formation for long, although they may be able to sustain guerilla operation for quite a while.

I am assuming SK troops alone will be enough to fight to the chicken neck, and hold it against all attackers. Continue toward Beijing would constitute too much risk. Better force PLA to attack well defended closed terrain to neutralize PLA's eventual numerical superiority.

Originally Posted by nemo

If united Korean troops captured the chicken neck, Shenyang MR is going to be cut off from supply. As such, they cannot sustain combat effectiveness as a regular formation for long, although they may be able to sustain guerilla operation for quite a while.

Are you certain that Shenyang MR is going to be cut off from supply? What is the size of Manchuria compared to Korea?

Originally Posted by nemo

I am assuming SK troops alone will be enough to fight to the chicken neck, and hold it against all attackers. Continue toward Beijing would constitute too much risk. Better force PLA to attack well defended closed terrain to neutralize PLA's eventual numerical superiority.

SK's best bet would be to force on beijing and try a takeover (unlikely) or at least to get a good bargaining position. A combined SK and NK attack on China is a huge commitment from Korea, it is either an all or doom senario for them.

I would say psychologically capturing beijing is very important than just holding onto a long frontline and inciting popular sentiment in mainland china of Manchuria being stolen from them.

Holding at the chicken neck only makes sense if Korea plans to digest Manchuria. And that is something that is going to take years. Can the Korea economy function with so many men away fighting or just guarding against the possibility of a Chinese advance.

The combined population of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning is about 109.5 million. The combined korea numbers about 74 million. This does not look like a quick conflict, which is one of the main premise why the combined Korea would want to launch a war on China in the first place. What would the Koreas have gained except for perhaps a wasted land, bad performing economy, and a very angry china for many years to come, if they can last years in the first place? Last time I checked about 20% of SK's export went to china, 25% I think, if you count exports to HK.

Unified China (ROC+PRC) would annhilate any country on Earth...

Taiwanese Technology + Mainland China Industry/Manpower??

Not to mention add Hong Kong's world class financial structure, property rights, and rule of law, plus Singapore's excellent governance system and Overseas Chinese diaspora brain power, wealth etc...

I have thought of a different approach. Second Artillery takes out all Korean power stations and oil refineries. China then suggests to Korea unconditional surrender.

Originally Posted by Phead128

Unified China (ROC+PRC) would annhilate any country on Earth...

Taiwanese Technology + Mainland China Industry/Manpower??

Not to mention add Hong Kong's world class financial structure, property rights, and rule of law, plus Singapore's excellent governance system and Overseas Chinese diaspora brain power, wealth etc...

Huh? Dream on...

The US is ahead of any other country on earth in actual military capability, the ones that can match it in high tech don't have the size (Israel, Japan, etc) while the ones that have the size don't have the tech, not to mention high tech (BRICs, Iran, etc). In terms of nuclear deterrence only Russia comes close.

Not to mention most of these countries are either allies of the US or has no reason to fight with the US, unless the US picks a fight with them. It will take lots of soft power growth backed by corresponding hard power for China to achieve a similar standing, some of the US soft power is due to its unique isolated geography which China can never attain.

China's prerogative is to maintain a steady growth trajectory, the US prerogative is to upset this. As we all know, it's easier to destroy than to build, so China has its work cut out for it.

By the time China can successfully re-unify with Taiwan and can attract places like Singapore as an ally, the time for anyone to upset its growth will be long past. However, as of right now China is nowhere near that.

Originally Posted by nemo

Both North and South Korea has regular+ reserve which is larger then PLA's regular+ reserve -- so it may be that PLA is outnumbered initially. If you consider only the regular troops, North Korea + South Korea has around 800K troops -- which will overwhelm troops in Mongolia and Hebei initially. And area north of Beijing are mountainous -- it wouldn't take a lot of troops to block the chicken neck, assuming they can get this far.

It's not the total number of troops that matters, but how many you can put into combat at once. You cannot simply put ALL your troops into China all at once. If China cannot use all of its 2.5 million, Korea can also not use all of its troops. As I mentioned before, only a narrow gap on the Yalu river is passable and only small number of troops can pass it at any given time. The initial attack will be detected almost immediately because China is actively monitoring Korea even as we speak. You can bet that China will be even more vigilant when facing a unified Korea.

Originally Posted by nemo

As for surprise, while you cannot really mask large troop movement, it can be mask diplomatically. For example, when Korea unifies, it may have excuse to bring up modern divisions from the south to the northern border, if unified Korean falsely announce that it intend to disband the Northern Korean troops. So at least for a short while, the unified Korea can have both South and North Korea army in the North Korea without alarming PLA. Instead of stopping at border, it and drive right through.

No one will buy it! China may not be able to declare war on Korea simply because there is a large troop movement in Korea. However, China won't sit still and watch Korea massing troop along its border. No one in their right mind would do that. The Chinese will find some excuse to get their troops to the location in no time. In fact, China has exactly that a couple years back, sending couple hundred thousand PLA to Yalu.

Originally Posted by nemo

Assuming it's a total surprise, South Korean can blow pass the under defended border, and go straight for chicken neck, achieving daily advance rate around 150 km a day. If it's lucky, it might get there in around a week. The only PLA troops that can react that fast are the Rapid Reaction Forces in the region, and they are going to be outnumbered. Once the chicken neck is gained, the troops in Shenyang MR can be destroyed in detail by using the reserves -- which need time to call up.

It sounds like day-dreaming to me. This exact scenario could happen if the PLA simply sits still and does nothing. Even without any defense, no army can advance 150km a day. Also, what do you think the PLA is doing when Shenyang MR is being destroyed in detail by using the reserves?? Having parties, or pee in their pants??

I don't know why you are so obsessed with the "chicken neck". Yes, the said area may look thin and small on the map because of the shear size of China in comparison. However, as I mentioned before, the "chicken neck" is wider than the entire length of the unified Korea. It is HUGE. Even if the Korean somehow manage to capture the area, they won't be able to hold it for long. Why? They are walking into a clamp, in what is Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang in the north and Hebei in the south. Both are strong military districts and independent as well. The Manchuria has been called the food pantry of China. They won't starve simply because the "chicken neck" is cut off. And Manchuria has heavy industrial base. They have some of the largest oil fields in China and can also import oil from Russia. They have all the resources to survive anything. So they won't be choked to death because of the loss of the "chicken neck".

On top of that, both Shenyang MR, which includes Laioning, Jilin and Heilongjiang in the north of the "chicken neck", and Beijing MR, which is located in the south of the "chicken neck" are powerful districts because they are in charged of protecting the heavy industrial base in Manchuria and the capitol city of China, respectively. They are no push-over. You are day-dreaming if you think you can defeat these two MR's simultaneously in a land war when you are the one being sandwiched in the middle.

Even IF Koreans somehow manage to capture the "chicken neck", guarding it would be even more difficult because, like I said it many many times before, the so-called "chicken neck" is huge. It would take the entire Korean military to guard the entire length of the neck. That would mean the Korean force would be spread so thin that any meaningful punch from either side of the neck will be able to punch through the defense line. Think about it, a thin thin line of Korean defense vs. highly concentrated and highly focused PLA attacks from either Shenyang MR or Beijing MR, both of which have population over 100 million and both of them bigger than the unified Korea. It's like one Korea in the middle and spread thin fighting two other much bulkier Koreas on two fronts. How do you wish to win that?

And what about other parts of China joining the fight? Like I said before, China's East Sea fleet and South Sea Fleet can both launch attacks on mainland Korea. How can the Korean continue to advance while their home is being bombed to the stone age?

Originally Posted by vesicles

I don't know why you are so obsessed with the "chicken neck". Yes, the said area may look thin and small on the map because of the shear size of China in comparison. However, as I mentioned before, the "chicken neck" is wider than the entire length of the unified Korea. It is HUGE. Even if the Korean somehow manage to capture the area, they won't be able to hold it for long. Why? They are walking into a clamp, in what is Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang in the north and Hebei in the south. Both are strong military districts and independent as well. The Manchuria has been called the food pantry of China. They won't starve simply because the "chicken neck" is cut off. And Manchuria has heavy industrial base. They have all the resources to survive anything. So they won't be choked to death because of the loss of the "chicken neck".

On top of that, both Shenyang MR, which includes Laioning, Jilin and Heilongjiang in the north of the "chicken neck", and Beijing MR, which is located in the south of the "chicken neck" are powerful districts because they are in charged of protecting the heavy industrial base in Manchuria and the capitol city of China, respectively. They are no push-over. You are day-dreaming if you think you can defeat these two MR's simultaneously in a land war.

Even IF Koreans somehow manage to capture the "chicken neck", guarding it would be even more difficult because, like I said it many many times before, the so-called "chicken neck" is huge. It would take the entire Korean military to guard the entire length of the neck. That would mean the Korean force would be spread so thin that any meaningful punch from either side of the neck will be able to punch through the defense line. Think about it, a thin thin line of Korean defense vs. highly concentrated and highly focused PLA attacks from either Shenyang MR or Beijing MR, both of which have population over 100 million and both of them bigger than the unified Korea. It's like one Korea in the middle and spread thin fighting two other much bulkier Koreas on two fronts. How do you wish to win that?

And what about other parts of China joining the fight? Like I said before, China's East Sea fleet and South Sea Fleet can both launch attacks on mainland Korea. How can the Korean continue to advance which their home is being bombed to the stone age?

The Shen Yang MR can probably repel a Korean invasion by themselves. If the Koreans are foolish enough to wedge themselves between 2 military regions, and spread out over an area of about 1000 km long, they would get ground to dust by the PLA on both sides.

Originally Posted by PanAsian

Huh? Dream on...

The US is ahead of any other country on earth in actual military capability, the ones that can match it in high tech don't have the size (Israel, Japan, etc) while the ones that have the size don't have the tech, not to mention high tech (BRICs, Iran, etc). In terms of nuclear deterrence only Russia comes close.

Not to mention most of these countries are either allies of the US or has no reason to fight with the US, unless the US picks a fight with them. It will take lots of soft power growth backed by corresponding hard power for China to achieve a similar standing, some of the US soft power is due to its unique isolated geography which China can never attain.

China's prerogative is to maintain a steady growth trajectory, the US prerogative is to upset this. As we all know, it's easier to destroy than to build, so China has its work cut out for it.

By the time China can successfully re-unify with Taiwan and can attract places like Singapore as an ally, the time for anyone to upset its growth will be long past. However, as of right now China is nowhere near that.

By the time Unified Korea gets unification, China would be unified by then.

Dreaming? This entire thread is built on the premise of a "unified Korea" with unit cohesion between former enemies.

Since we are dreaming up 'Unified Korea', why not dream up of Unified China? hgahaha

This is a fascinating discussion since it's as far fetched as humanly possible. Not only is Shengyang MR is perfectly capable of defeating a joint Korean invasion, but both 39th GA (SYMR) and 38th GA (BJMR) are designed to defeat a US Army heavy mechanized division, I doubt Korea can mount an attack force of that capability on that Yalu front. Even if Korean forces can breach into Chinese territory, within hours 2nd Artillery will be checking river crossing points on the Yalu and Korean staging areas off the map. I agree that Korean forces will not be dumb enough to push towards Beijing, as an attempt to seize Chinese nuclear command and control center is viewed as unconventional aggression which may result in a tactical nuclear response.

Shenyang and Beijing MR is basically here all of China's heavy divisions are, the border region is fall from weakly defended. Anyways, like i said talk is cheap. At the very least play it out in the operational art of war. d. I wasted many hours on it in my high school years, there was 1969 China v.s. Soviet Scenario in there, as well as Korean war II version Quite fascinating. Here is the link to the new edition.

Matrix Games - Norm Koger's The Operational Art of War III