Five Year Buildup

Such future projections are always tricky, to say the least. Next to impossible to do right would be closer to truth, really. But let me try. I'll skip the ground forces bit as it's too much work and i don't have enough knowledge about those production capabilites anyway.

Airplanes wise - at least some 350 j10 or j9s could be produced by the end of 2010. I've taken into consideration that there already are some 40 j10 and j9s (combined) available and assumed that multiple production lines could churn out around 6 planes per month.

150 more jh7s would not be out of the question either.

A fleet of 4 kj2000 EW planes and 8-12 y8 'balance beam' EW planes could/should be operational under current plans anyway. It's next to impossible to know how many more china would make if it was preparing for a war in 2010.

It is always possible to buy foreign (russian probably, since itd be on short notice) equipment. If you're preparing for war, you'll get pretty much all they money you ask. Defence budget would/could balloon 1000 % and still be sustained on a short term (5 years) basis. Of course, such an action would be greatly frowned upon by the international community and would make potential chinese enemies also go into a weapons shopping spree, probably with great discounts given by US if they buy their equipment.

Ships would probably include 3 more type 93 subs, 3-4 more yuans and something like 8-10 more songs. Yes, i'm pulling all of these figures out of my ass, just doing guesstimates. Yeah, and those ordered 8 improved kilos would all be delivered by then.

With surface ships its a little bit more exact since theyre all built out in the open, easier to tell capacities china has to build 'em in the first place. up to 2 51c and 2 more 52c destroyers might be built and delivered by then. something like 8 more type 54 frigates could be build too. And those 2 improved sovremenies would be put in service as well. Fast attack boats...um.... i'll say 20-30 more, if more shipyards are put into action. And so on. It's really kinda pointless, all this. Since for such short notice china would be better off buying stuff from others, and the increased production is hard to determine anyway, who knows how many more production lines could open?

Wow Utelore - I really do not know why you want to go here?????

You would have nothing in Isolation, if China were to dream of going this route, then have no doubt, a lot of skillfull preceeding diplomacy, would leave the opposition, far more Isolated than they would wish. Further, you can rest assured China would not embark on such a adventure alone.

My best guess would be an Oil Assets conflict on three fronts (Japan, Western Forces in Central Asia and Iran) conducted through the Shanghai C O and essentially a Sino-Russian Joint Venture, for which the Russian Price would be Chinese assistance in the Ukraine,the Caucases (especially Azerbyjan) the Balkans and possibly the Balts.

I go for this as this would be primarily a Land War with any operations against Japan led primarily by the Russians with their Navy and Airforce - China supporting.

So what would the land war look like? Well, at the height of WW2, Stalin managed to put 30% of the Soviet Union into Combat Units. Apply that formula to China and you get a figure of 390 Million troops. I give you this just so any lesser massive figure that gets mentioned is seen in context.

I do not think there is any doubt about China;s ability to equip a very large army to a reasonable standard - even if only motorised light Infantry, with AK's and an array of SAM and ATGM shoulder pad systems, motors etc. I say this to correct any notions of a Korean War type scenario - one bolt rifle per squad or platoon etc.

You would have a proportion being equipped to full mechanised level (T96 standard etc) plus you then have the Professional Army. Add to that the technological resources, equippment and forces of the Russians etc.

Do I really need to go further, forget Clancy and his M'bation fantasies, I doubt if the West would have enough HI Tech surveillence, smart weapons etc to do more than simply raise casualties and slow down the advance. Just because you can see a swarm of Wasps approaching on a clear day, does not mean they are going to sting any less when they catch you - unless of course you are able to run and hide!

Happily however, as the Chinese are more concerned with taking the nect 50 years to become avery rich and developed Superpower. I would say that the chance of anything like this happening are nearly as slim as me being elected President of the United States.