SinoDefence Forum

Dongfeng · 08-30-2005

Hi, everyone

To get the discussion in the professional forum started, I put one of my old essays on sinodefence here. The page originally containing this essay has been removed now for update. Before I start working on a new carrier page, I wish to hear your opinion on this subject.

One of the main points I wish to explore more is the fate of Varyag. Is China really going to commission this ship? If so, how are they going to solve the problems with the propulsion and electronic systems? What aircraft is likely going to be deployed on the carrier (fixed-wing or helicopters only?), etc

Quote:

The PLA Navy has been reportedly seeking to acquire an aircraft carrier force as a part of its ambition to achieve a ‘blue-water’ naval capability for over a decade. Also it is generally believed that China has no financial or technological difficulties to build an aircraft carrier. However, despite various reports claiming that China may plan to refit one or more former Soviet Union’s aircraft carriers, or build carriers indigenously, no firm evidence has been found to show that such a plan has ever been initiated.

On the other hand, the aircraft carrier is of great importance to the PLA Navy’s power projection capabilities. Although China can already project military forces superior to those South-East Asian countries could deploy to the South China Sea, the PLA is still incapable of providing its forces in this region with credible air support. A fully operational aircraft carrier battle group could also shift the power balance in the Taiwan strait and the East Asia, and has implications for U.S. naval policy in Asia-Pacific region.

China’s ambition to build a ‘blue-water’ navy comprising aircraft carriers, large surface combatants and nuclear submarines can be traced back to the late 1950s, but the building of an aircraft carrier was not seriously considered until the early 1980s, when Admiral Liu Hua-Qing became the commander in chief of the PLA Navy, and later in the 1990s the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (1989-97). Liu studied in Voroshilov Naval Academy in Leningrad, Soviet Union between 1954 and 1958, and became the driving force behind the transforming of the PLA Navy from a costal defence force to a regional naval force during his tenure.

Under the influence of Liu and other PLA Navy officers who strongly supported the ocean-going offensive strategy, in the early-1980s research institutes and think tanks within the PLA began to study the possibility of building a light aircraft carrier of around 15,000 to 20,000 tonne displacement and carrying helicopters and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft such as Sea Harrier.

The aircraft carrier research programme was boosted when a Chinese ship breaker purchased the retired 15,000t aircraft carrier HMAS Melbourne from Australia. The ship, which was stationed in a seaport in Guangzhou for five years before it was finally dismantled for scrap, provided a valuable opportunity for the Chinese shipbuilding engineers to see at first-hand how the ship was designed and built.

China was reported to have approached the Ukrainian and in 1992 to purchase the unfinished Soviet Kuznetsov-class carrier Varyag, but was refused. Later China approached the Russian government to purchase one of the four Russian navy’s 40,000t Kiev-class carriers, but the effort was unsuccessful too.

In 1995-96 the Spanish shipbuilder Empresa Nacional Bazan approached the Chinese government to promote its two low-cost, lightweight conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) aircraft carrier designs, the 23,000t SAC-200 and the 25,000t SAC-220. However, China was only interested in obtaining the design blueprint rather than ordering the actual vessel. At the end of 1995 it was reported that France had offered to sell China the 32,700t carrier Clemenceau, which was decommissioned in September 1997. Again the deal went nowhere.

Between 1998 and 2000, three ex-Soviet Navy aircraft carriers, the 45,000t class Kiev class Minsk and Kiev, and the 67,500t Kuznetsov class Varyag, were purchased by Chinese commercial companies. The two Kiev class carriers have been developed into floating tourism parks based in Shenzhen and Tianjin respectively. The third ship, Varyag, is currently receiving refit at Dalian Shipyard to become a floating casino in Macao according to its owner, a Hong Kong/Macao based private company. It is unknown that how much value these three vessels are of to the Chinese aircraft carrier research programme, but without a doubt they all have been carefully examined by Chinese shipbuilders to benefit the future indigenous aircraft carrier project.

According to China’s navy development plan in the early 21st century, the second layer of defence and sea-denial capabilities are designed to primarily to break a blockade of the first island chain by 2015 to 2020. The roles of the aircraft carrier in this strategy remains uncertain. In fact many within the PLA and PLA Navy suggest that the military importance of the aircraft carrier is much less than its political importance. They argued that other platforms such as nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) would be much more useful for the PLA Navy in the near future. Some are also concerned that without a sufficient air, sea, and underwater protections, the aircraft carrier is no more than a sitting duck in a modern sea warfare. As the focus of China’s military planning shifts to the Taiwan Strait, the acquisition of aircraft carriers seems to have lost whatever urgency it had.

bd popeye · 08-30-2005

This toipic created a lot of post in our old forum. It is a great topic.
Let me qualify myself for new members. I am retired from the USN. I served on five USN CV's & various shore commands in 20 years. I was an avation ordanceman for 11 years and a parachute rigger for 9.

As for a PLAN CV/LPH type ship I think the PLAN is re-fitting the Varyag. You just don't have a ship in the shipyard for three years with armed guards for nothing. When we will see the Varyag operational no one knows. I think when operational the ship will more than likely have helos. Whereas China has no VSTOL aircraft. Unless of course a ski ramp is installed. Then we may see Mig-29's if Russia is willing to sell them.

I personally feel that somewhere in a unknown shipyard clouded in great secrecy the PLAN has under construction a LPH/LHD of approxmiately 22,000-25,000 tons. 225m X 32m in size. It will carry 24-30 JZ-10 helos and ASW helos. Plus 750-1000 PLA troops...It will of course carry the full complement of amphibous equipment.

No I have no proof of this . It is just my opinion. I know the PRC is building landing craft by the dozen. Well they will need amphibous ships to deliver them to the landing area.I would not be surprised to see the PLAN with as many as 6 LPH/LHD type ships in the next 10 -12 years. the technology is there for the PLAN to build a blue water Navy.

rommel · 08-30-2005

The Russian Varyag or the ex Riga, i think, will not be refit for military use. Instead, I think, that China is more likely to develloped a new carrier but on the basis of the Kuznetsov Class. I think that the PLAN will build an maybe slow (China's engine are not so good) but instead powerfully armed with SAM, SSM and with a jump deck for fixed wing plane. The SAM would be in VLS on the side of the ship along with SSM, (well, i really think that China will copy those russian design) They'll use Su-27 or 30 as plane and Dolphin as ASW chopper. But still, I don't know if there's a real need for China to build a ship like this. I think that carrier could also be a command post for fleet and will maybe carry a Marines Unit and support them ???

Dongfeng · 08-30-2005

A recent photo of Varyag. The sign near the ship reads "no photographing!". Well, at least that didn't scare this guy away. I agree with bd popeye that there must be something going on. If the ship is going to be decommissioned or converted for civilian use, you don't need security like that!

Gollevainen · 08-31-2005

I'm also quite covinsed that the Varyag is going to be put on service or least the should do it. There's no question about the chinas need for carrier, It's neccerity if China will ever trying to act as a true superpower.

Why Varyag, and not some other desing? Well first of all i think that chinese shipbuilding indrusty isen't capaple at the moment of indegeniously build a carrier, or even small V/STOL or LPH type desings. And the capapility to build one isen't enough, you need to know what you are building. Althoug chinese have studied the ex-RAN Melbroune and of course the Varyag i still think it would take too long to estabilish a working carrier building industry. China have needed carriers for decades now and, in my obinion they shouldn't wait any longer.

The awnser is Varyag, i'm not aware about the details of those accusations that varyag was bought for the PLAN in the first place under the cover of "Macao's floating casino", so i'm not going to comment about those in this post. Anyway the fact that Varyag is in the chinese hands is the key. From all existing possibilities of chinese getting carrier, the Varyag is surely the best for three main reasons:

1. It's (as already mentioned) in China. Buing a foreing desing or existing carrier is quite difficould couse only countryes able to provide any carrier in even theory are USA and the EU members, France and Spain. USA won't sell one, thats for sure and the EU countryes are tied couse the weaponban.
Russia doesen't got any carrier left (they are already in china, but about those in later) and any other country isen't capaple to build one.

2. Varyag is relatively new. All other carriers out there wich could theoretically be availble for china are the Kiev, Minsk and Foch. The russian vessels, althoug they are in china, are both build in the 1970's and counting the defaults of soviet shipbuilding, exspecially in carrier field, they are in bad shape. Foch in other hands is build in the 1950's and althoug representing western shipbuilding, it's still quite ageing. Varyag in other had where laid down in 1985 so it's newer than the Gorshkov currently being refitted for India.

3 The overall concept. Varyag is as we all know a STOBAR type carrier wich means it have Ski-jump in the bow to launch aircrafts but normal arrested recovery. It's simblyer to use and maintain than steam catabult and a good choise for new carrier nations. The Varyag size is also an advatage as it leads us to the Airgroup. Now China dosen't posses any other suitable Jetfighters at the moment for carrier conversion than the Su-27/J-11. The J-10 is still on the prototype stage and to make twinengined (or even single-engine) naval version of it would take at least a decade. Also aqustion of MiG-29s isen't wise thing to do in my obinion. China isen't common whit the type and to purchase it would seriosly threaten the J-10 project as the both planes fill the similar role. Su-27 is in the otherhand introducted for PLAAF for over decade now and it propaply wouldn't be so big change to adjust the J-11 production line for the modifeid Su-33 line.
Now as we are left whit the Flanker, the only suitable carrier for it is Varyag. Kiev and Minsk would in theory (if underway similar conversion as the Gorshkov) be able to operate only MiG-29 size planes and Foch is so lightly build that it cannot operate such heavy aircraft as the MiG-29.

Varyag isen't whiout faults. It lacks engines wich is the main disavantage (tough so does Kiev and Minsk) . Also the overall desing of Varyag isen't the best possiple for any carrier (It's bit limited airwing due the desing concept, hangar is short and narrow) but that isen't enough reason to delete the carrier. Indians ar getting new steam plants for the Gorshkov and as it orginally used the same engines that Varyag where suposedly to use, it would be inpossiple to fit the same engines to Varyag also. The engine question would come agross whit idegenious carrier as well.

Varyag is in my obinion the ideal solution for PLANs need for carrier in this decade. Ofcourse China should estabilish a indegenious carrier production, but the Varyag is a good start. Also the development of own carriers is much easier if you allready have a carrier in use. The operational experience is vital to make a sucsesfull carrier, just look how Soviets grumbled whit their own desings...

bd popeye · 08-31-2005

Quote:

The operational experience is vital to make a sucsesfull carrier, just look how Soviets grumbled whit their own desings...

You are so right! The Soivets thought that buy building a carrier they could operate one. They were so wrong. They had so many problems with all their ships. Espeically with the powerplant. Ther propulsion plant on a CV must be top notch. And be capable of operating the ship at high speed for hours at a time. Without breakdowns.

Just because a country has a carrier does not mean they can operate it.. Look at Thialand. Have they ever done anything with their carrier?

It takes years of training to operate a CV/LPH in a safe manner. Presently it takes a USN CV from 9-15 months to prepare for a major deployment. And that is with a crew with many sailors that have years of experience operating carriers.

I'm sure the PLAN has considered all these factors. Thye may even now have a crew in training .We shall see.

utelore · 08-31-2005

Yes, I agree with the ability of deploying a "True" blue water carrier group is a huge undertaking. I think you need to look at the operational needs of the PRC navy. What would be the objective of having a blue water carrier group with Fixed wing "fast movers"??.. I believe that the main function of any kind for a PRC Carrier would be to give the PRC Marine corp a large Helo platform to launch local offensive military operations. I think that would be less of a undertaking while at the same time provide the PRC with a much more needed "resource" as opposed to wasting resources on a "true" blue water carrier designed to launch fixed wing fighters....cheers ute

Gollevainen · 08-31-2005

well that's why excatly PRC needs to get the Varyag operational...to train itself before more capaple ships can enter service. THe first step must be taken sometimes...the British, americans and japanese all pioner of fixedwing aviation they all had to start from the scarts and strugle thru all kind of difficoulties. Whit Varyag china can skip one phase of that long rocky road, to desing and build it's first carrier. Whit Varyag China saves yaers, maybe decades when learning to become a true bluewater fleet.

Sczepan · 08-31-2005

I agree, to a true "Blue Water Navy" some carriers are need
and if the PLAN will start in the future they should start soon;
it needs years of experience to use a carrier ....

but I 've a problem with Varjag:
the engines:
1)
when they was installed in the "Varjag-Birthplace" in the Ukraijne, they didn_t work for long years - and going rusty more and more;
the Varjag must be towed to China, and the enginless Varjag hat big problems to pass the Bosporus; it will be a waste of money to turn circle by circle for weeks and weeks in the Black See, when these engines could made running
so I don_t think this engines (when they was installed before in ukraijnian Yard) coud be made running

2)
the Varjag was in Dalian - for arround 3 Years - at a Pier without cranes (we 've seen a lot of pix these time), so the PLAN could do a lot of things there - but they had no way to change the engines

3)
the time in dry dock was only enough for sand-blast and new painting, but not to change the engines

4) after painting nobody would cut the hull to install new engines

5) without running engines the Varjag is useless

So I can't believe, that the Varjag will be used in trainee-program, to get experience in carrier operations and and and .....

Gollevainen · 08-31-2005

The engine proplem is the main disavantage in Varyag, but no way overhelming. As i said before China could go ahead whit similar engines beeing fitted for Gorshkov at the moment. I'll try to find the article about those new powerplants of the future indian carrier.

Sczepan · 08-31-2005

its not the problem to get the engines .... China also could buy western dual use engines, I am sure, if China want they can have more as enough engines to power Varjag, Minsk and Kiew additional ....

there was no way (opportunitiy) to install new engines in Varjag
- not the last 3 years without crane at the pier
- and not the short days in dry dock

bd popeye · 09-01-2005

Quote:

there was no way (opportunitiy) to install new engines in Varjag

I've never been to the shipyard that holds the Varyag or the PRC for that manner but I think engines could have been installed. You really don't need a large crane. The engines could have been disassembled and re-assembled on board Varyag.

The below text is an answer that I posted to a similar question in our old forum.

Please read carefully. My opinion only..the technology does exist to change the power plants without a large pier side crane. Whether or not the PLAN has it I don't know. I know the USN has pulled reduction gears {they are very large} out of carriers. Also replaced nuclear power plants power cores. This is accomplished by cutting large holes in the decks above and rigging a crane in the hangar deck and lifting them out. The hangar on the Varyag has to be at least 6.5 meters high. High enough for a heavy lift crane. The engines could be disassembled in sections and then lifted out. And the new one lifted down and assembled in the engine room. Or as in the case of the USS Saratoga in the '70's a hole was cut in the side of the ship. But you all say this was not done. We all will just have to wait to see what happenes.

Sczepan · 09-01-2005

bd popeye, your right:

Quote:

Originally Posted by bd popeye

.....the technology does exist to change the power plants without a large pier side crane. ....

but - didn't you think, this technology is expensive (disassembling the old engines in sections and then lifted out. And the new one lifted down and assembled in the engine room - or cuting a hole in the side of the ship) ;
at the other hand

- hm - to cut a hole in all decks from landing deck about hangar down to engine room seems also very expansiv;
the last one didn't happened, we 've seen some pix of Varjag at the pier,
all times with closed landing deck
cuting a hole in the side of the ship .... hm, I've only seen parts of Varjag, the front part - indeed, not the back section .... this part was conceales by Containers ...

and, of course, by disassembling the old engines in sections and assembling the new one in the engine room .... they could use the hole of the aircraft hangar to handle these parts in- and outside ....

sounds interesting, so the engines and some equipment could be installed now, after 3 years of pier side - and we all didn't see this ...
top secret, no fotos on pier,
the Varjags pier side was opposed to starting and landing aeroplanes in Dalian,
and our "roof photograph" in Dalian, in front of the Shipyard, also didn't see these pier side of Varjag ....

Quote:

Originally Posted by bd popeye

We all will just have to wait to see what happenes.

your right again

bd popeye · 09-01-2005

Quote:

but - didn't you think, this technology is expensive (disassembling the old engines in sections and then lifted out. And the new one lifted down and assembled in the engine room - or cuting a hole in the side of the ship) ;

I've seen it done my friend. On the USS Constellation CV-64 in the early 80's. The reduction gears were removed and replaced in about 5 weeks time...Expensive? You bet. The same technology could repalce engines.

Quote:

sounds interesting, so the engines and some equipment could be installed now, after 3 years of pier side - and we all didn't see this ...

Nope nobody saw a thing. Not me not you nobody!

Does not mean nothing happened. Only time will tell and like I said..We shall see!

Hey would'nt we all be a surprized if the PLAN unvieled the Varyag as an LPH type ship loaded down with JZ-10's and Ka-28's.

..well it could happen!

Sczepan · 09-02-2005

well, ists only a possibility, not more - but the Varjag could carrie more as only JZ-10's and Ka-28's;
didn't the PLA Naval Air Force (PLANAF UI unit) have some Su-30MK2 as part of the Ease Sea Fleet? The 24 examples of the upgraded Su-30MKK2 variant should be enough to arm the Varjag.

And about the J-10: didn't we have seen some pix of J-10, including a arresting hook? May be the J 10 is also designed to be used from carriers ....

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