Originally Posted by Totoro
I believe that the US has made it clear that if Taiwan declares its independence unilaterally, it stands alone. The US will intervene if PRC invades Taiwan as long as such an invasion was not caused by a Taiwanese declaration of independence.
In such an invasion, it is the task of Taiwan's forces to hold the line until the US can concentrate its forces. Time will not be in China's side.
This is the tasked that China must do in order to achieve its goals:
1.) Gain air superiority
2.) Gain naval superiority in the straights
3.) Gain and hold a beach head from numerically superior taiwanese army.
4.) Have sufficient logistical capability to provide all the necesities of an invading army. (the bigger the army, the biggier the logistical capability)
5.) Ensure the safety of your logistical lines.
In these endevours, the defender has the advantage:
1.) Air battles will be fought in and around the Taiwanese airspace. Taiwanese pilots who ejected can be easily recovered and brought back into combat. PLAAF's pilots will be prisoners of war. Pilot attrition will be in Taiwan's favor. Its planes will also have support from SAMS.
2.) Naval battles in the straight will be brutal. However, since PRC is the aggressor, it needs to come out and go near Taiwans' shore, where Taiwan can take advantage of its littorals. PLAN's ship will have to face the Taiwanese Kidds, Lafayette, and multitudes of shore base anti-ship batteries. We all know that PLAN ships have trouble engaging sea skimming missiles.
3.) The first wave will have the unenvious job of holding the beach head from a Taiwanese counter attack. They will be out numbered and will be facing heavy armor. Currently, PLAN has the capability of sea lifting 1 Armored division OR 2 infantry "light" divisions. It will take at least 24 hours to bring in the next wave. However, PLAN sea lift capability only can bring reinforcement or more supplies for the 1st wave.
4.) As said earlier, PLAN sealift capability can only carry 1 armored division OR 2 light infantry division. These ships are slow and not well armed and will be easy targets for shore based anti-ship batteries.
5.) Plan needs to protect its sea-lift capabilities beacuse they alone can supply its army. If sufficient capability is sunk, its army in taiwan will not have enough food, ammo, and supplies to go on the offensive.