Weakness of the PLAN

Originally Posted by Totoro

We agree there, no one would want to escalate a war over taiwan into something bigger. Any possible invasion would probably be accompanied by huge diplomatic effort trying to assure the third party countries that taiwan would be left with a certain level of autonomy. But if it comes a full fledged battles between US and china, it'd be some time after the start of invasion on taiwan. Brunt of US forces needed for a war against china is just too far away for US to help taiwan in time. I see china starting airlifted ground troops invasion, establishing a perimeter of sams/navy ships on/around taiwan before US gathers enough forces for a lethal blow. Note i said lethal blow. Of course earlier attacks would be possible but US would just not enjoy enough of an overwhelming force and its losses would be relatively big, even if still smaller than china's losses. In my opinion, china can afford such bigger losses - to an extent.

I believe that the US has made it clear that if Taiwan declares its independence unilaterally, it stands alone. The US will intervene if PRC invades Taiwan as long as such an invasion was not caused by a Taiwanese declaration of independence.

In such an invasion, it is the task of Taiwan's forces to hold the line until the US can concentrate its forces. Time will not be in China's side.

This is the tasked that China must do in order to achieve its goals:
1.) Gain air superiority
2.) Gain naval superiority in the straights
3.) Gain and hold a beach head from numerically superior taiwanese army.
4.) Have sufficient logistical capability to provide all the necesities of an invading army. (the bigger the army, the biggier the logistical capability)
5.) Ensure the safety of your logistical lines.

In these endevours, the defender has the advantage:

1.) Air battles will be fought in and around the Taiwanese airspace. Taiwanese pilots who ejected can be easily recovered and brought back into combat. PLAAF's pilots will be prisoners of war. Pilot attrition will be in Taiwan's favor. Its planes will also have support from SAMS.

2.) Naval battles in the straight will be brutal. However, since PRC is the aggressor, it needs to come out and go near Taiwans' shore, where Taiwan can take advantage of its littorals. PLAN's ship will have to face the Taiwanese Kidds, Lafayette, and multitudes of shore base anti-ship batteries. We all know that PLAN ships have trouble engaging sea skimming missiles.

3.) The first wave will have the unenvious job of holding the beach head from a Taiwanese counter attack. They will be out numbered and will be facing heavy armor. Currently, PLAN has the capability of sea lifting 1 Armored division OR 2 infantry "light" divisions. It will take at least 24 hours to bring in the next wave. However, PLAN sea lift capability only can bring reinforcement or more supplies for the 1st wave.

4.) As said earlier, PLAN sealift capability can only carry 1 armored division OR 2 light infantry division. These ships are slow and not well armed and will be easy targets for shore based anti-ship batteries.

5.) Plan needs to protect its sea-lift capabilities beacuse they alone can supply its army. If sufficient capability is sunk, its army in taiwan will not have enough food, ammo, and supplies to go on the offensive.

Originally Posted by IDonT

I believe that the US has made it clear that if Taiwan declares its independence unilaterally, it stands alone. The US will intervene if PRC invades Taiwan as long as such an invasion was not caused by a Taiwanese declaration of independence.

I was not aware that's the US policy. That makes china's job much easier as i think most likely way for a taiwan invasion to start is if they declare independence. I don't see china gaining anything from invading before that, for no reason.

Originally Posted by IDonT

This is the tasked that China must do in order to achieve its goals:
1.) Gain air superiority
2.) Gain naval superiority in the straights
3.) Gain and hold a beach head from numerically superior taiwanese army.
4.) Have sufficient logistical capability to provide all the necesities of an invading army. (the bigger the army, the biggier the logistical capability)
5.) Ensure the safety of your logistical lines.

I agree. What i don't agree is the order of events you seem to have imposed on china's forces in the further text. There's no way a sane person will start a seaborne invasion without air and sea superiority. I also don't see any major PLAN forces going anywhere near taiwan before air superiority is achieved. Air battle would be key.

Originally Posted by IDonT

1.) Air battles will be fought in and around the Taiwanese airspace. Taiwanese pilots who ejected can be easily recovered and brought back into combat. PLAAF's pilots will be prisoners of war. Pilot attrition will be in Taiwan's favor. Its planes will also have support from SAMS.

This is a completely moot point as we're not talking about ww2 period battle of britain like war. Taiwanese and chinese already have more pilots than planes as it is. And there's no way taiwanese will be getting/producing more planes to put into combat like british did in battle of britain. Once those 300 or so taiwanese planes are out of comission - that's it, there won't be any more coming. So that leaves us with SAMs, on ground and sea.

Aside of what Kidd destroyers will bring to the combat with their sm2, taiwanese naval sams are fairly weak, limited to sm1 and crotale systems. Ground sams are, in my opinion, badly positioned, one skybow battery wasted on the island just 16km off china's coast, others (this includes mobile patriot batteries) protecting cities on the north and south of the island, halving the ability to make an inter-protecting network of sams. Right now taiwan has 9 patriot (or similar class) sam batteries. Even if that's increased by 6 pac3 batteries it is still far from an inpenetrable shield.

Yes, chinese air force losses, especially ground attack aircraft forces, will be absolutely huge. But chinese can afford them. Taiwan, on the other hand, has comparatively limited force. It is my opinion chinese air force alone (well, combined with ballistic/cruise missile attack) is capable of neutralizing taiwanese air forces and theatre defense sams within days.

Originally Posted by IDonT

2.) Naval battles in the straight will be brutal. However, since PRC is the aggressor, it needs to come out and go near Taiwans' shore, where Taiwan can take advantage of its littorals. PLAN's ship will have to face the Taiwanese Kidds, Lafayette, and multitudes of shore base anti-ship batteries. We all know that PLAN ships have trouble engaging sea skimming missiles.

To continue, after the first couple of days needed for neutralizing taiwanese AF and long range sams, a few more days of PLAAF ground attacks will be needed to supress the ground launched antiship platforms, with help of limited forays of PLAN into the strait to draw those platforms out. At the same time, major PLAN force would be able to venture into the strait to a small extent, still out of reach of taiwanese harpoons. As for PLAN vs taiwanese navy - taiwan would be out of air cover, china would have air support and antiship missile detection range and launch range is on chinese side.

"We all know that PLAN ships have trouble engaging sea skimming missiles." is something along the lines of 'we all know mexicans are lazy and smelly'. It's blatant discrimination. Compared to USN, probably, but there's no proof that taiwanese are more capable of engaging chinese supersonic seaskimmers than chinese are capable of engaging taiwanese seaskimmers. Besides, with no air cover, no maritime control planes and early warning platforms, i'd like to see taiwanese conduct any serious offensive moves without heavy losses.
It is a battle that'd be played out at china's pace as taiwanese would not be able to afford to take the initiative. The strait and coast of taiwan is also perfect for subs and taiwanese navy would be rather trapped that way too.

Originally Posted by IDonT

3.) The first wave will have the unenvious job of holding the beach head from a Taiwanese counter attack. They will be out numbered and will be facing heavy armor. Currently, PLAN has the capability of sea lifting 1 Armored division OR 2 infantry "light" divisions. It will take at least 24 hours to bring in the next wave. However, PLAN sea lift capability only can bring reinforcement or more supplies for the 1st wave.

Please make up your mind. Are we talking about today, when taiwan has no kidd class destroyers/ additional orion airplanes/newly purchased subs and just 120 amraams in its stocks or are we talking about some year 2008 or so when all those forces will be operational but china will also have newly built landing ships, doubled airlift capability, years worth of j10 production, newly delivered additional kilos and songs and so on?

I remember i discussed with you those 24 hours needed to send another wave. Did you respond to that post of mine? Please count the number of chinese harbours in vicinity of taiwan, the distance to taiwanese beaches and endurance/speed of chinese ships.

Originally Posted by IDonT

4.) As said earlier, PLAN sealift capability can only carry 1 armored division OR 2 light infantry division. These ships are slow and not well armed and will be easy targets for shore based anti-ship batteries.

Chinese would be crazy to start a seaborne invasion while shore based anti ship batteries would still be free to operate at considerable efficiency. I don't see a seaborne invasion starting anytime in the first 7 days of initial air attacks. A seaborne invasion force that does come will most probably not be sent to establish a beachhead as an airlifted force, delivered before that, will be tasked with it, as well as taking some useful runways for reinforcements. With new il76s (we're not talking about war happening tomorrow, as we have established) PLA can airlift over 16 000 fully equipped troops in first wave, and thats not counting any commercial airliners that'd help the cause once good runways are secured. Furthermore, with the level or urbanization taiwan has achieved, combined with its geography, armored forces will be less of an asset. Also please keep in mind that any large scale movement of tanks are easely dettered if enemy has air superiority like china would have by then.

Originally Posted by IDonT

5.) Plan needs to protect its sea-lift capabilities beacuse they alone can supply its army. If sufficient capability is sunk, its army in taiwan will not have enough food, ammo, and supplies to go on the offensive.

Agreed to an extent. Which is exactly why china should not rush things and send sea transports before they can be adequately protected. By that time additional commercial ships would be used too, for additional transport capacitiy, used in areas of very low threat.

To sum it up, i just do not see how taiwan can whitstand and fight off chinese invasion alone. If US stands by it fully then yeah, tables would turn completely. And taiwanese ability to fight off chinese gets smaller with every year now, taiwan just cant keep up with chinese buildup.

Originally Posted by Totoro

I was not aware that's the US policy. That makes china's job much easier as i think most likely way for a taiwan invasion to start is if they declare independence. I don't see china gaining anything from invading before that, for no reason.




I agree. What i don't agree is the order of events you seem to have imposed on china's forces in the further text. There's no way a sane person will start a seaborne invasion without air and sea superiority. I also don't see any major PLAN forces going anywhere near taiwan before air superiority is achieved. Air battle would be key.




This is a completely moot point as we're not talking about ww2 period battle of britain like war. Taiwanese and chinese already have more pilots than planes as it is. And there's no way taiwanese will be getting/producing more planes to put into combat like british did in battle of britain. Once those 300 or so taiwanese planes are out of comission - that's it, there won't be any more coming. So that leaves us with SAMs, on ground and sea.

Aside of what Kidd destroyers will bring to the combat with their sm2, taiwanese naval sams are fairly weak, limited to sm1 and crotale systems. Ground sams are, in my opinion, badly positioned, one skybow battery wasted on the island just 16km off china's coast, others (this includes mobile patriot batteries) protecting cities on the north and south of the island, halving the ability to make an inter-protecting network of sams. Right now taiwan has 9 patriot (or similar class) sam batteries. Even if that's increased by 6 pac3 batteries it is still far from an inpenetrable shield.

Yes, chinese air force losses, especially ground attack aircraft forces, will be absolutely huge. But chinese can afford them. Taiwan, on the other hand, has comparatively limited force. It is my opinion chinese air force alone (well, combined with ballistic/cruise missile attack) is capable of neutralizing taiwanese air forces and theatre defense sams within days.



To continue, after the first couple of days needed for neutralizing taiwanese AF and long range sams, a few more days of PLAAF ground attacks will be needed to supress the ground launched antiship platforms, with help of limited forays of PLAN into the strait to draw those platforms out. At the same time, major PLAN force would be able to venture into the strait to a small extent, still out of reach of taiwanese harpoons. As for PLAN vs taiwanese navy - taiwan would be out of air cover, china would have air support and antiship missile detection range and launch range is on chinese side.

"We all know that PLAN ships have trouble engaging sea skimming missiles." is something along the lines of 'we all know mexicans are lazy and smelly'. It's blatant discrimination. Compared to USN, probably, but there's no proof that taiwanese are more capable of engaging chinese supersonic seaskimmers than chinese are capable of engaging taiwanese seaskimmers. Besides, with no air cover, no maritime control planes and early warning platforms, i'd like to see taiwanese conduct any serious offensive moves without heavy losses.
It is a battle that'd be played out at china's pace as taiwanese would not be able to afford to take the initiative. The strait and coast of taiwan is also perfect for subs and taiwanese navy would be rather trapped that way too.



Please make up your mind. Are we talking about today, when taiwan has no kidd class destroyers/ additional orion airplanes/newly purchased subs and just 120 amraams in its stocks or are we talking about some year 2008 or so when all those forces will be operational but china will also have newly built landing ships, doubled airlift capability, years worth of j10 production, newly delivered additional kilos and songs and so on?

I remember i discussed with you those 24 hours needed to send another wave. Did you respond to that post of mine? Please count the number of chinese harbours in vicinity of taiwan, the distance to taiwanese beaches and endurance/speed of chinese ships.



Chinese would be crazy to start a seaborne invasion while shore based anti ship batteries would still be free to operate at considerable efficiency. I don't see a seaborne invasion starting anytime in the first 7 days of initial air attacks. A seaborne invasion force that does come will most probably not be sent to establish a beachhead as an airlifted force, delivered before that, will be tasked with it, as well as taking some useful runways for reinforcements. With new il76s (we're not talking about war happening tomorrow, as we have established) PLA can airlift over 16 000 fully equipped troops in first wave, and thats not counting any commercial airliners that'd help the cause once good runways are secured. Furthermore, with the level or urbanization taiwan has achieved, combined with its geography, armored forces will be less of an asset. Also please keep in mind that any large scale movement of tanks are easely dettered if enemy has air superiority like china would have by then.



Agreed to an extent. Which is exactly why china should not rush things and send sea transports before they can be adequately protected. By that time additional commercial ships would be used too, for additional transport capacitiy, used in areas of very low threat.

To sum it up, i just do not see how taiwan can whitstand and fight off chinese invasion alone. If US stands by it fully then yeah, tables would turn completely. And taiwanese ability to fight off chinese gets smaller with every year now, taiwan just cant keep up with chinese buildup.

D-Day vs Taiwan
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...iwan-d-day.htm

The amphibious operation against Taiwan is a great discussion, I will open a new thread. See you there.

When was China getting Yakhonts for their Sovs?
The Kidds aren't kidding. The strait is narrow and you don't need much.

The YJ-12 has potential and since the USN and ROCN still uses Harpoons, C-801s and 2s aren't out of the question.

I personally do not believe that Normandy is an appropriate analogy to an invasion by the PLA on Taiwan. The reason is that Taiwan doesn't have the strategic depth Nazi German had at the time, also, you're discounting the greatly decreased reaction time of both sides due to advances in technology. Such a change would favor numerical superiority. You can argue that the Taiwanese C4I is superior, but there are two problems

1) Taiwan's military exercises have uncovered some serious flows in C2 capabilities

2) The supposed advance of Taiwanese C4I structure does not outweigh Chinese numerical advantage

Originally Posted by sumdud

When was China getting Yakhonts for their Sovs?
The Kidds aren't kidding. The strait is narrow and you don't need much.

The YJ-12 has potential and since the USN and ROCN still uses Harpoons, C-801s and 2s aren't out of the question.

look it up. every one knows the 956ems will feature yahkont. it will give an increased power to thge plan.;

look it up. every one knows the 956ems will feature yahkont. it will give an increased power to thge plan.;

If so, please explain why all the images showing the new Sovromenyes building for china features launchers for Moskit SSM?

well, i have seen only one pic of so, and the launcher's modifications may have been too inconspicous to notuice. the misssles have a very similar design.

Like lots of things concerning chinese military, reports about new sovermennies are somewhat conflicting. I've seen articles claiming they would carry yakhonts, yes, but i've also seen many more articles saying they will instead carry modified moskits.

<Kanwa News July 19, 2003> KANWA has confirmed more details about 956EM DDG.

As for the ship-to-ship missile, earlier report said it was the 3M80E with a range of more than 120km. A a variety of sources confirmed to KANWA that 956EM actually employed 3M80MBE, an upgraded version of 3M80E specifically developed for China. It is said that China paid for the designing and upgrading projects. The designer of the missile claims that the maximum range of this missile is up to 200 km, which is what China demanded and eventually accepted. This indicates that the anti-ship attack capability of 956EM is far greater than what the West earlier expected.

The two 956EM DDGs currently being built for the Chinese navy have undergone a series of modifications in the air defense and anti-ship weapon systems. In general, 956EM no longer adopts the 130mm naval gun in the rear. Instead, it is now outfitted with two Kashtan ADGMSs. In addition, a target acquisition radar has been newly installed on the vessel specifically for Kashtan. <Kanwa Moscow>

the yahkont is a modified moskit. 200 km is good,but it seems the russinas cant do the 300 km range of the yj-85. are the new sovs hving new radar and air defence missles?

Originally Posted by Gollevainen

If so, please explain why all the images showing the new Sovromenyes building for china features launchers for Moskit SSM?

You must be mistaken. You must've seen the 956Es. 956Es use Moskit (Sunburn), while 956EMs use Yakhont.

Originally Posted by MIGleader

the yahkont is a modified moskit. 200 km is good,but it seems the russinas cant do the 300 km range of the yj-85. are the new sovs hving new radar and air defence missles?

hehehe, maybe the Russians will provide more, now that they have seen YJ-83 with their own eyes. I think they might get it upgraded to SA-N-12 from 7? Even 052B has SA-N-12.

wait, thew sa-n-12 is the grizzly and the sa-n-7 is gadfly right? the old sovs already have the grizzly like the 52b's.

I have seen pics 8same ones that you, propaply) from Sovs. building for china and all of them field those big quadruple cannisters for Moskit.
Now yakhont is much more smaller missile than moskit and it isent desingned directly from moskit...

This from bhramos which is practically an improved yakhont for India.
Those who have wider imagination, can compare the size of the possible yakhont launchers and moskit launchers to the old styx launchers seen also in the pic...

Now, those who claim that 956EMs should field yakhont, can you provide some source that claim so or is it just your own asumptions?