SinoDefence Forum

tphuang

http://www.strategycenter.net/resear...pub_detail.asp

This is by Richard Fisher. This is quite new in that many of the published details are not well known before this. Anyhow, just some of the points I thought were really interesting.
- China admitted that it's going to build LHD. We've actually discussed for a while the need for China to have something like this and it's been mentioned on Chinese bbs for a while that they are working for something like this, but it has never been acknowledged in any way. It mentions building 2 to 8 071s + 3 of this new LHD (mentionned as 081, although my sources quote it as 070). I think the actual number is really dependent on the number of carrier groups they plan to have. At this point, if we assume 3 groups, then 3 LHD and 6 071 is the bare minimum needed.
- It mentions 150 of the Catamaran LCUs being built already. This is an extreme surprise, since it only started in 2003. And honestly, we haven't seen any pictures of this compared to say Type 22 (which I'm guessing might be in the 50s by now) Again, this is something that's needed to be able to move over a credible number of soldiers. Although far exceeding my amphibious predictions from a couple of month back.
- It mentions a new frigate under development, because there was a competition between the engines of the French firm SEMT Pielstick and Germany’s MTU. Now, I personally don't think this is going to be a new frigate, but rather a future variant of 054 series. As we know, there is just not enough power provided by the 4 diesel engines for a 4000 tonne ship like 054A. And thinking that they will incorporate more weapons (possibly geared more to ASW) in the future, new engines are needed. It mentioned some unknown gas turbine. At the present, I'm thinking that this will probably be QC-185 or QC-168. More likely the former.
- Also mentioned that 054A is using 4 SEMT Pielstick diesel engines per ship rather than 2 as mentioned on sinodefence. At least, it's at the same level of power as La Fayette now. As for this 12 054 in the future batch of using purely diesel engines, this is actually also quite believable, since I think they will be moving to an improved 054B variant in the near future. Although, until then, most of the changes will surround improved sensors and such.


Also, this arms sale section was interesting:
- specifically surprised on the J-10 sale to Malaysia part. I guess JF-17 is clearly not matching RMAF requirements, but didn't think they'd export J-10 to Malaysia at this early point.

joshuatree

Are new PLAN ships using diesels simply because of their lack in turbine expertise? I'm always curious if electric propeller pods will be applicable to military ships or not. Would seem to simplify and reduce need for gearing if diesels were used to generate electricity.

flyzies

Ive read that article...very informative indeed.
But i wonder tphuang, outta curiosity...do u find Fisher biased against China at times?
He wrote another article "Two Cheers For the 2007 PLA Report" published on the same site....have u read that one?

tphuang

yeah, but that one is really less informative. I know his view and doesn't need to analyze through it again.

He is biased against China, one of those you would call China threat people. I mean a lot of stuff he raise is valid, but he does tend to try to think the worst of China's intention on everything. As for capability wise, he does try to be realistic about everything though. And if he makes a mistake, he is not afraid to correct it on the next article. (let's face it, we all do that) That's something I can appreciate.

Skywatcher

Yeah. He's light years ahead of Gertz, though he assumes that a lot of PLA tech is foreign sourced. I'm surprised he didn't talk too much about Chinese anti shipping missiles in this report, though.

He seems to think that the SE Asian states are actually going to start building WMDs because of China, so I tend to be a bit more skeptical on his foreign policy projections.

f.hind

So, when are we going to see the next batch of 071s and the 081s start to take shape? Also, would the 081 be based off the 071 hull?

Ryz05

The website http://strategycenter.net/ is filled with publications about the Chinese military and its capabilities. It seems to be turning its attention toward China more and more. Anyways, with China's burgeoning economy, it's naval development is expected, but like always, China is a peaceful country with many friends.

This is another good article http://www.strategycenter.net/resear...pub_detail.asp It says the new Type 081 LHD can carry the new Z-10 attack helicoptor. It also has two new pictures of the new DF-31A transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), possibly with off-road capability. It also suggests a possibly revived missile-defense program.

coolieno99

If China plans to export the J-10 now, then it's most likely the follow-on to the J-10, or even possibly a 5th gen aircraft similiar to the F-22, is progressing well into the development cycle.