The PLAN's Future Areas of Operation

Originally Posted by rhino123

An add on to what I have said... what SampanViking and maozedong had stated are only countries that are friendly to China and had not jump into the China threat issues - Yet.

However, being friendly to China doesn't necessary mean they would allow for military exchanges and joint exercises. It is not that simple.

There are many folds to this equation.

1) Do those countries that you state have any strong navies? If not, I don't think China would learn much from joint exercises with these countries (of course I am not saying that all of the stated countries had weak navies).

2) Why are these nations friendly to China? Mainly because they have something to gain. And all countries would weigh the pro and cons when they are going to have military exchanges with china... if the cons out-weigh the pro, then there will not be any military exchanges.

3) Do China really want to have joint exercise with Navies that operate practically just a few boats?

Of course there are many other agendas out there that might prevent these exercises from ever happening, such as,

a) Politic
b) Economic
c) International pressures.

So all of us know that China should have joint exercises with other strong navies so that she could actually exposes her weakness and improved on them, but sometime it is not whether China should... but sometime it boils down to whether she could or not?

I just said the PLAN's future areas of operation, not exercises.
of course with other strong navies joint exercises is better, but dosn't mean this is only way.
not only chinese navy, army, air force, they are all get nothing with other strong countries joint exerises, also, Western has been sanction of China for 60 years, but PLA still getting strong.
of course, if China got Western help, chinese military got double strong, not like some body said behind the world 20 years.
but PLA is still world power now.
also, in fact, there are no any strong countries would real help others become strong military power.

Originally Posted by maozedong

I just said the PLAN's future areas of operation, not exercises.
of course with other strong navies joint exercises is better, but dosn't mean this is only way.
not only chinese navy, army, air force, they are all get nothing with other strong countries joint exerises, also, Western has been sanction of China for 60 years, but PLA still getting strong.
of course, if China got Western help, chinese military got double strong, not like some body said behind the world 20 years.
but PLA is still world power now.
also, in fact, there are no any strong countries would real help others become strong military power.

Maybe I have misunderstand your post previously, my bad... needed more coffee I thought you are posting another candidate for China's partner for exercises.

As to China being behind the world by 20 years... that is something I would like to rebuke. I don't think so... maybe some of her technologies are old but certainly not as far back... plus by the meaning of the world... those people (not you, don't be mistaken) must have been living under the rock.

Maybe China is still behind in term of naval technology by quite a bit when you compare it to US and some European nations. But certainly she had an edge over most of Asian countries (not counting Japan and South Korea -which incidently get heaps of helps from US).

Anyway, China's main route now is not going to more exercises with friendly nation... no... her main need now was to have a much stabler economy... and also show some of her presence overseas so as to safeguard her investment and interest.

Her navy is good enough for now...

Originally Posted by rhino123

Maybe I have misunderstand your post previously, my bad... needed more coffee I thought you are posting another candidate for China's partner for exercises.

As to China being behind the world by 20 years... that is something I would like to rebuke. I don't think so... maybe some of her technologies are old but certainly not as far back... plus by the meaning of the world... those people (not you, don't be mistaken) must have been living under the rock.

Maybe China is still behind in term of naval technology by quite a bit when you compare it to US and some European nations. But certainly she had an edge over most of Asian countries (not counting Japan and South Korea -which incidently get heaps of helps from US).

Anyway, China's main route now is not going to more exercises with friendly nation... no... her main need now was to have a much stabler economy... and also show some of her presence overseas so as to safeguard her investment and interest.

Her navy is good enough for now...

yes,you are right, I think China in the future 10 years, for her navy, just needs time to learn how to man the new system, as soon as PLAN receive more new naval system, PLAN will go far more to the sea.
in fact, the U.S military is world most of super power,the U.S most of exercises are from the war,in world war II,the U.S army,navy,air force,all joined the war.
after wold war II, the U.S almost still non stop joined the war,from Korean war to today Afrikaans, the U.S military exercises in Afrikaans war every day.
the second way exercises for U.S military is holding against training it's self,like blue vs red, in fact,all countries no chance to exercises with their enemy,in cold war, the U.S exercises with Soviet Union, you know that's impassable,therefor,both countries could not find them self weakness, what only can do they holding against training exercises,training like real battle.

Here's another presentation by Robert Kaplan on future Chinese and P.L.A.N. areas of opperation

[Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power] - C-SPAN Video Library

The US exercises are informed by the many wars it fights. PLAN will not have that "advantage". China will invest more in pipelines and railways in Asia, including those trough Myanmar to avoid the excessively busy Malacca Straight for cargo going to or from South China,
Myanmar is the only place on the Indian Ocean where PLAN, perhaps, in the far future, might want to build a naval base..

I hope China can deploy its navy to Gwader in Pakistan, that would be a great move and symbolic success of sino-pak friendship, and I am sure our friendship will yield this result sometime in the future

even Russia and North Korea are scared of Chinas rise, only one country is truely happy and that is Pakistan, it will give China access to the Persian Gulf and will send a clear message to the enemys

Gwadar is a commercial port without halfway adequate protection from airfields, without a rail connection with China, so it will be a long time before it can become a naval base.
A port in Myanmar might earlier become a Chinese naval base, because a railway from Szechuan to a port in Myanmar is a mere 2000 km. Might be realized in twenty years or so. Myanmar might feel itself safer.

Hey guys here's a story about Xuzhou being the first Chinese warship to enter the Mediterranean.

China flexes its military muscles – Global Public Square - CNN.com Blogs

I am sure our friendship will yield this result sometime in the future

China will emulate the Zheng He expeditionary expansion routes.

First South China Sea, then Indian Ocean, all the while neutralizing the Japanese and American naval presence to constrain China's valuable and precious oil shipments and international shipping lane China's trade highly depends on.

Originally Posted by Phead128

China will emulate the Zheng He expeditionary expansion routes.

First South China Sea, then Indian Ocean, all the while neutralizing the Japanese and American naval presence to constrain China's valuable and precious oil shipments and international shipping lane China's trade highly depends on.

Ok Phead128..just describe how china will do what you described. I'm waiting.

Originally Posted by bd popeye

Ok Phead128..just describe how china will do what you described. I'm waiting.

Hahaha, Popeye, it is hard to see you "emotional" for a time.

The talks of "China expands influnce" always get mixed up by enthusiast's hypothesis, and enthusiansts dose not necessary to be a "diplomatics" who knows how to "glide through" - and then, that's when the hypothesis of "country A takes on country B" comes from.

As a Chinese citizen, I would surly be happy to see "the glorious old days re-appears", but I also knows too well that "the face-off" would never happen.

What's so good for "face-off" anyway?

But I do believe as realistic as Chinese people ACCEPT the true world (the world as it is); one day, the "world police" would ACCEPT the "respected rights" for others to freely conduct their own business also.

And that don't really requires a "face-off" to be realized.

China first will have to establish itself with LPD and LHD, this will take us into 2015 and even into 2020, for around 10 Type071 LPD and 6 LHDs

after this we will see small aircraft carriers with diesel engines maybe around 50,000 ton mark before China moves into the supercarrier race of 85,000+ton nuclear powered carrier which will take us well into beyond 2020 say around 2030+

so its a long time before we see any big carriers from China but as we all know China always has a trick and a suprise up its sleve so who knows

China needs to make its presence felt in the Arabia Sea and Persian Gulf, its where its all happening, sailing out of the Pakistani port of Gwader would not be a bad idea and would be very practical location for Chinese navy

10 lpd and 6 lhd is a bit ambitious for 2020... Maybe 6 lpd and 2 lhd is more realistic