South China Morning Post
October 3, 2010 Sunday
Neighbours fear China has produced stealth submarine
Greg Torode ords
Has China finally produced a stealth submarine? The latest product of a PLA naval shipyard in Wuhan has the country's neighbours wondering.
Sketchy photos of a new conventionally powered submarine - the third generation produced since 1994 - appeared on private Chinese websites three weeks ago and raised few eyebrows initially.
But far more detailed images surfaced a week later showing a new submarine being launched by the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation.
Nothing has been said officially, but other countries are taking seriously the prospect of a new class of Chinese submarines.
"The talk in our community is that we are seeing the first signs of a completed new design," said one Asian-based military attaché.
"The question is ? just how quiet have they been able to make it? Stealth is everything when it comes to submarines and at some point China is going to finally crack it."
No weapon better reflects mounting regional tensions than the submarine - used to provide an unseen armed deterrent against larger potential foes as well to penetrate coastlines for surveillance and espionage activities.
Naval officials in the region say encounters between submarines are increasing.
Such encounters will become more frequent as countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, Vietnam and Indonesia expand and update their submarine fleets in the face of China's rising military strength.
The PLA will soon have more submarines than the United States Navy, but its fleet is thought to be far less advanced than - and have stealth technology still far behind - not only the American, but also the Russian and Japanese fleets.
The submarine launched in Wuhan may provide crucial clues as to just how long it will take China to catch up. Some reports suggest the submarine incorporates both indigenous Chinese and Russian technology - China operates around a dozen Russian Kilo-class submarines.
Interest is focusing on whether the People's Liberation Army has been able to improve on the propulsion system of the Yuan-class submarine launched in 2007. Its air-independent diesel-electric engines allow submarines to remain submerged for long periods without surfacing for air, and running mostly on quiet batteries.
Reports in the respected weekly Jane's Defence noted the submarine's large superstructure, known as the sail, and speculation that it might be used to house anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-anti-aircraft missiles. These so-called area-denial weapons are a cause of increasing alarm for US naval commanders.
Meanwhile, the PLA Daily and a Qingdao newspaper report that Da Liang Long, a professor at the PLA Navy's Submarine Academy, received an award from the Central Military Commission for his "considerable" work on submarine stealth technology.
Gary Li, a PLA analyst at the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, said such an award was unusual in the mainland system. "It could be a sign that the professor has really achieved a breakthrough ? and they are usually given when a certain project has been completed, so everything fits with the launch in Wuhan.
"Undoubtedly there will be a lot of sea trials and tweaking needed before the PLA can really be sure of this submarine's capability."
The US Defence Department's annual report on China's military modernisation, released in August, made no mention of the impending launch of a new conventional PLA submarine. Rather, the report focused on possible advances in China's nuclear-powered attack submarines - vessels similar to those that form the backbone of the US fleet and which are increasingly being seen in the western Pacific Ocean.
The report predicted four new-generation attack submarines would be launched in "coming years".
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