SinoDefence Forum

Finn McCool · 03-30-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by hallo84

These routs you mentioned are not only the life line to China but also the whole of south east asia including Japan. Could the sea lanes be completely closed by the US? I don't think so... eventually US will submit to global and internal pressure to open up sea lanes again.

The US would let other nations supplies through...especially Japan's. Only Chinese ships would be turned back.

This blockade would not have an immediate enough effect. There are many examples of nations survivng blockade. The United States survived a blockade in the War of 1812, and before that the British were harrassing shipping to a lesser extent and had been for years. Again in the American Civil War the Confederate States were blockaded and even without an industrial base of their own they still fought against far superior forces for years. In WWI the Germans were competely blockaded but still fought for years. The same in WWII. In both cases Britain survived a mostly ineffective submarine blockade by the Germans (as any US blockade would probably have large holes simply because of China's size even with a deep blockade strategy or whatever its called.).

The conclusion I have drawn from these historical examples is this: blockades do effect an enemies war fighting capability, but not enough to destroy it on their own. In order to truly defeat an enemy through economic war, their industrial heartland must be destoryed. Look at WWII: Germany had a big enough empire to keep on fighting without getting resources from the rest of the world. Only when GROUND TROOPS denied them those resources was Germany finished. It would be the same with China. China is a large enough nation to survive a blockade and provide for itself.

However, China's economy would suffer massively. The CCP

leadership probably wou;d not be willing to take so massive a hit to the economic progress China has made in recent years. In a case of total war, a blockade would be something China could survive. But put one in place, and China may well decide that it is not worth the pain and simply concede on whatever issue it is that brought up the war.

The same goes for the US, but in a different way. The US could survive a blockade as well, it would be painful too, just as in China case. However China cannot blockade the US. So basically the above sentence doesn't matter. The most important point to remember in this case is that while China loses almost the entire world in markets and suppliers, the US only loses China. China is a big thing to lose, but much of the slack would be picked up by Mexico, India, etc.

I hope that made sense.

darth sidious · 03-30-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by adeptitus

In the event if US-PRC war, I doubt the US would be worried about trade with the PRC or seizure of PRC registered ships. Generally speaking Americans are law-biding 90% of the time, the when the other 10% infringes on its self-interest, the law is opposed or disregarded.

To cite one example, the US has no problems with seizing and sending foreign nationals for trial by the ICC, but when it comes to its own citizens, the US Congress passed the American Servicemember's Protection Act (ASPA), which authorizses the US President to use military force to free any US military personnel held by the ICC.

In addition, the US also pressured other countries to sign the Article 98 bilateral immunity agreement, which prohibits the surrender of any US citizen to the ICC. If the country refuse to sign, the US President may suspend military aid/sales to the country.

The answer is, yes. The USN is the only naval power in the world today with such a capability, and the political muscle to use ports from Japan to Singapore for its war effort. They can sink every major PLAN vessel and destroy PRC port facilities with stand-off weapons. The PLAN & PLAAF may be able to sink some USN ships, but it wouldn't change the outcome. It's not necessary to maintain a blocade over long period of time, if you can muscle other countries into joining in economic sanctions against China.

If we look at some of PRC's neighbors, they wouldn't shed a tear if the USN sunk the bulk of PLAN ships. I think China's leadership understands the political the militay realities, and is willing to work patiently to develop a more favorable condition/environment. Notice I did not say "wait patiently". I said "work patiently". Slowly and surely, building up PRC's military might and economic influence over its neighbors.

I wonder who will give base to the US for such an action countries connected by land will face an invasion from the chinese army if they try ( an invasion the US wont be able to stop)

also most of these countries are economeicaly connected to china so even less reason for them to do this

if you are thinking of Japan it will most likely be turned in peaice of waste land if it ever try as for SK china can unlesh KIM

darth sidious · 03-30-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

The US would let other nations supplies through...especially Japan's. Only Chinese ships would be turned back.

This blockade would not have an immediate enough effect. There are many examples of nations survivng blockade. The United States survived a blockade in the War of 1812, and before that the British were harrassing shipping to a lesser extent and had been for years. Again in the American Civil War the Confederate States were blockaded and even without an industrial base of their own they still fought against far superior forces for years. In WWI the Germans were competely blockaded but still fought for years. The same in WWII. In both cases Britain survived a mostly ineffective submarine blockade by the Germans (as any US blockade would probably have large holes simply because of China's size even with a deep blockade strategy or whatever its called.).

The conclusion I have drawn from these historical examples is this: blockades do effect an enemies war fighting capability, but not enough to destroy it on their own. In order to truly defeat an enemy through economic war, their industrial heartland must be destoryed. Look at WWII: Germany had a big enough empire to keep on fighting without getting resources from the rest of the world. Only when GROUND TROOPS denied them those resources was Germany finished. It would be the same with China. China is a large enough nation to survive a blockade and provide for itself.

However, China's economy would suffer massively. The CCP

leadership probably wou;d not be willing to take so massive a hit to the economic progress China has made in recent years. In a case of total war, a blockade would be something China could survive. But put one in place, and China may well decide that it is not worth the pain and simply concede on whatever issue it is that brought up the war.

The same goes for the US, but in a different way. The US could survive a blockade as well, it would be painful too, just as in China case. However China cannot blockade the US. So basically the above sentence doesn't matter. The most important point to remember in this case is that while China loses almost the entire world in markets and suppliers, the US only loses China. China is a big thing to lose, but much of the slack would be picked up by Mexico, India, etc.

I hope that made sense.

welcome to the 21th centry this is not 1812 learn a bit more about econ before talking

there are a million ways china can use to seek revenge on on america for this
they include :

1 dumping all T-bonds causing hell on the US economey

2 attack those nation that support the american effort

3 use ties to forgein nations the pressure US ( you can hold out against the world forever

the list goes on and on

also chinas surface fleet maybe be destroyed reletive quickly but airforce and sub fleet wont be so easy they can be usd to imposed counter blockade

especialy at those who provide base to US with impovements in weaponary over the last 50 years the effect will be devasting

darth sidious · 03-30-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by darth sidious

if you are thinking of Japan it will most likely be turned in peaice of waste land if it ever try as for SK china can unlesh KIM

What do you mean a wasteland? Surely you aren't suggesting nukes? Are you a 14 year old? And KIM! You make him sound like some giant robot or a Pokemon or something.

But that is a good point. I bet Kim would like to use his military if he thought he had a chance of success, which is what this situation would give him. However, I don't think the US would need South Korean permission to blockade the Straits of Tsushima.

About nations being invaded by the PLA if the support the blockade...How? Let's take the Straits of Malacca as an example. How does the PLA get there? Are they going to invade Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia to get there? The best China could do was try to get Indonesia onto its side diplomatically, and attempt to persuade them to deny the US access. If that doesn't work, well, then there's not very much China can do, other than try to force the blockade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darth sidious

also chinas surface fleet maybe be destroyed reletive quickly but airforce and sub fleet wont be so easy they can be usd to imposed counter blockade

especialy at those who provide base to US with impovements in weaponary over the last 50 years the effect will be devasting

Look Darth, I wasn't saying it was easy. I was just saying that both nations could survive a blockade and the other economic blow they could throw at each other. And are you suggesting that with what the Chinese have left after fighting the US they can blockade, well, lets see...BASICALLY THE WHOLE WORLD? As I said, the Germans tried a submairne blockade with an INTACT force in only the North Atlantic and failed. And remember, the US still has access, compete unfettered access to all the oil it needs. China will be getting what it needs through a few pipelines. These cross quite a few nations. Each one is a chance for the flow to be turned off.

Look...I'm not saying it would be easy. It could cause worldwide depression. But I think that in a situation like this the US has some big advantages.
If you had actually read my post you would see that I was saying that China has some big advantages too. Basically my arguement is that blockade and economic war would not bring this war to a conclusion.

Sorry for the double post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

What do you mean a wasteland? Surely you aren't suggesting nukes? Are you a 14 year old? And KIM! You make him sound like some giant robot or a Pokemon or something.

But that is a good point. I bet Kim would like to use his military if he thought he had a chance of success, which is what this situation would give him. However, I don't think the US would need South Korean permission to blockade the Straits of Tsushima.

About nations being invaded by the PLA if the support the blockade...How? Let's take the Straits of Malacca as an example. How does the PLA get there? Are they going to invade Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia to get there? The best China could do was try to get Indonesia onto its side diplomatically, and attempt to persuade them to deny the US access. If that doesn't work, well, then there's not very much China can do, other than try to force the blockade.

kims army is a peaice of crap but in time like this it can be used to pressure SK with the threat of invasion and destruction of captial

he is also eager for oppunity to "reunite" the nation so with a bit of chinese aide they will cause massive trouble for the US count in the reasource nedded to stop a NK invasion and your blockade force will be over streached

nation cant move unlike the US they do not have a ocean to hide behind after the war the will be remenbered as having betryed china in this time of need. After the war they will face a hateful china like Germany after WWI . over long term I doubt any nation would like that.

as for japan I suggest you look up how muched of its trade its conducted with china this alon will made them think twice before allowing an US blockade

obiously you have not been to china recently the HATE against japan in there is fearful to say the lest if does side with US them anything less them a nuke will be throw at it( remenber china has countles cheap balastic/cruise missile ) it also vunerable to a a chinese counter blockade from chinese aircraft /submarine ( these can be produced quickley and will most likely surive the inital american attack)

china can surive with out the sea ( example germany) japan cant(example england)

also with the forces you are describing here it looks like WWIII so its rather point less

Spike · 03-30-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

What do you mean a wasteland? Surely you aren't suggesting nukes? Are you a 14 year old? And KIM! You make him sound like some giant robot or a Pokemon or something.

But that is a good point. I bet Kim would like to use his military if he thought he had a chance of success, which is what this situation would give him. However, I don't think the US would need South Korean permission to blockade the Straits of Tsushima.

About nations being invaded by the PLA if the support the blockade...How? Let's take the Straits of Malacca as an example. How does the PLA get there? Are they going to invade Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia to get there? The best China could do was try to get Indonesia onto its side diplomatically, and attempt to persuade them to deny the US access. If that doesn't work, well, then there's not very much China can do, other than try to force the blockade.

I don't think any ASEAN nations would support a US blockade of China unless it was extremely serious (like China attacking them first or something). China runs a huge trade deficit with South East Asia, any blockade would have serious reprecussions for the economies of ASEAN. South Korea and Taiwan (assuming the blockade wasn't triggered by a Chinese attack) would not support it for economic reasons as well.

Granted the reasons behind a blockade will affect the outcome, but obviously the politcal-economic reality is not as simple as you think.

darth sidious · 03-30-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

Look Darth, I wasn't saying it was easy. I was just saying that both nations could survive a blockade and the other economic blow they could throw at each other. And are you suggesting that with what the Chinese have left after fighting the US they can blockade, well, lets see...BASICALLY THE WHOLE WORLD? As I said, the Germans tried a submairne blockade with an INTACT force in only the North Atlantic and failed. And remember, the US still has access, compete unfettered access to all the oil it needs. China will be getting what it needs through a few pipelines. These cross quite a few nations. Each one is a chance for the flow to be turned off.

Look...I'm not saying it would be easy. It could cause worldwide depression. But I think that in a situation like this the US has some big advantages.
If you had actually read my post you would see that I was saying that China has some big advantages too. Basically my arguement is that blockade and economic war would not bring this war to a conclusion.

Sorry for the double post.

in short term there will be no shortage of oil for china she can increase production in her own oil fiel buy from Russia and rely and stocked reserve

during the battle the odds are usuely

100 allied sailor VS 1 u-boat crew

10 escorts+5 aircraft VS 1 u-boat

its inpossible for US to achive this kind of superiorty right now. or establish establish a convey system in time

also with out convey escort are preety much useless in protecting merchant ship.

PiSigma · 03-30-2006

think you guys are thinking not outside the box yet.. don't just think of china and US. sure US loss the chinese market and china loss the rest of the world's market.. but the REST OF THE WORLD losses the chinese market also, and that's not a market that any nation can just pick up. nations that sell to china will complain loudly to USA.

also if USA only blockade ships registered in china, then the suppliers can use ships registered in their own countries to ship commodities to china that's not something USA can stop unless they blockade the harbors... which we already know they can't unless risk being destroyed.

and what about civil unrest in USA?? millions of consumers that just realized everything in walmart just got an extra zero behind it. india and mexico can't take on the extra work in a day. it will take years to train and build the factories to produce all that stuff.

Finn McCool · 03-30-2006

Perhaps this disscussion should re-orient itself away from an apocalyptic war between China and the US and back to what China can do to get the natural chokepoints it has that restrict its Navy.

1. Gwadar, if it is all that it is cracked up to be, would be a tremendous aid to the Chinese. Especially if the could base a sizeable fleet there. Then they could target Diego Garcia! If Gwadar is not all it is cracked up to be, China needs to find a replacement. China needs to have an Indian Ocean Fleet. The political difficulties of pulling it off would be great, because the US and India would both be heavily opposed. But China needs to do it.

2. Expand the Alliance with Russia. This will threaten Japan's northern flank and provide China with a route into the North Pacific. It will also guarantee a supply of oil.

With a capable fleet in the Indian Ocean and a strong alliance with Russia, China will be able to project its power world wide.

Just a thought...Myanmar would be good. It can be reached overland from China and it has good harbors and a long coastline on the Indian Ocean. It is also in need of international backers. I think this idea was disscussed but I forget what happened.

KYli · 03-30-2006

1. Cambodia
2. Myanmar
3. Pakistan

If China could get these three countries on their side, they could put good use on the harbors. US would have hard time to blockade China.

1. Veitnam
2. Thailand
3. Cambodia
4. Myanmar
5. Malaysia
6. Lao

If china could get three out of these six countries to support them, they will get many much needed resources.

Shaighai Six and Pakistan will be also important, they provide oil and route to the Middle east.

And we all know Russsia will be the most important allies of China, they could provide both weapons and Oil.

FriedRiceNSpice · 03-31-2006

Is it just me or did Darth sidious just triple post? And why does it look to me as if he is talking to himself?

darth sidious · 03-31-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by FriedRiceNSpice

Is it just me or did Darth sidious just triple post? And why does it look to me as if he is talking to himself?

some mods made a mitake in joining posts they combined mine and Finn McCools

FriedRiceNSpice · 03-31-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by darth sidious

some mods made a mitake in joining posts they combined mine and Finn McCools

Haha I see. I was fearing you had split-personality/schiziophrenia for a second there.

PiSigma · 03-31-2006

sorry my bad.. i did that.. wasn't paying too much attention.. don't really know how to split them up.... was going to merge the other posts....

IDonT · 03-31-2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finn McCool

Perhaps this disscussion should re-orient itself away from an apocalyptic war between China and the US and back to what China can do to get the natural chokepoints it has that restrict its Navy.

1. Gwadar, if it is all that it is cracked up to be, would be a tremendous aid to the Chinese. Especially if the could base a sizeable fleet there. Then they could target Diego Garcia! If Gwadar is not all it is cracked up to be, China needs to find a replacement. China needs to have an Indian Ocean Fleet. The political difficulties of pulling it off would be great, because the US and India would both be heavily opposed. But China needs to do it.

2. Expand the Alliance with Russia. This will threaten Japan's northern flank and provide China with a route into the North Pacific. It will also guarantee a supply of oil.

With a capable fleet in the Indian Ocean and a strong alliance with Russia, China will be able to project its power world wide.

Just a thought...Myanmar would be good. It can be reached overland from China and it has good harbors and a long coastline on the Indian Ocean. It is also in need of international backers. I think this idea was disscussed but I forget what happened.

Again China will still face blockade even with overseas bases like Gwadar. The problem is how to get it resupplied. By land yes, but as a said, naval re supply is much more efficient. Having far flung bases without adequate logistics is just foolish. Those will be the first to be cut off.

China does not have the capability to challenge the Indian Navy in its backyard.

Quote:

If China could get these three countries on their side, they could put good use on the harbors. US would have hard time to blockade China.

1. Veitnam
2. Thailand
3. Cambodia
4. Myanmar
5. Malaysia
6. Lao

Vietnam still has lingering memories of the 1980's Chinese invasion and naval battle in the spratleys area.
Thailand is a US ally
Cambodia maybe
Myanmar maybe
Malaysia is in the ANZAC alliance, which included UK and Australia. Easy diplomatically to adopt a pro US stance.
Laos Maybe.

Those countries are part of ASEAN. SIngapore, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia are the senior members of the organization and will have some sway on which side those countries will be on. Since most of them are US allies or have shown some hostilities to the Chinese, they will be in the US camp at best or neutral at worst.

FreeAsia2000 · 03-31-2006

Hmm I think you guys are downplaying the importance of Indonesia..have
you noticed how EVERYBODY is visiting Indonesia ?

I don't think the Indonesia public would support an American blockade of
China and if the chinese government played it's cards right it would
outright oppose it.

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