PLAN carrier thread III

[crobato]

An artist rendition of the possible PLAN carrier in a Japanese magazine.

[daveman]

What is that a copy of again? I honestly don't know how "up to date" the Chinese Navy's first carrier will be when it hits water.

[Jeff Head]

Originally Posted by crobato

An artist rendition of the possible PLAN carrier in a Japanese magazine.

Well, to me, that clearly looks like a rendition of the completed and refurbished Varyag.

I still believe that the Varyag will be launched in the 2008-2009 time frame and will enter service thereafter, commissioning in the 2010-2011 time frame. A lot of training for sure, but capable of full operations if necessary.

I also believe the PLAN will build a couple of their own indegenous designs, probably launching one in the 2012 time frame and another in the 2015 time frame...but that's just my opinion. I also believe that those two carriers may well be CTOL.

[dollarman]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm expecting a western-influenced carrier design, perhaps similar in shape but somewhat smaller than the Charles De Gaulle, but probably using ski jumps. A design like the Invincible Class or the Italian Carrier is too small to effectively operate Flankers. It's just a hunch though.

Any news on the Su-33's?

[Norfolk]

Originally Posted by Jeff Head

Well, to me, that clearly looks like a rendition of the completed and refurbished Varyag.

I still believe that the Varyag will be launched in the 2008-2009 time frame and will enter service thereafter, commissioning in the 2010-2011 time frame. A lot of training for sure, but capable of full operations if necessary.

I also believe the PLAN will build a couple of their own indegenous designs, probably launching one in the 2012 time frame and another in the 2015 time frame...but that's just my opinion. I also believe that those two carriers may well be CTOL.

It seems likely that Varyag/Shi Lang will emerge as a STOBAR carrier as her flight deck is clearly more or less finished, but as Jeff says, her new-build successors may well turn out to be CATOBAR. I do rather suspect that at the very least Varyag will one day be (at the very least for testing and evaluation purposes) converted to CATOBAR someday. Once the new-build carriers follow Varyag into service over the next decade or so, I would rather expect that in short order Varyag may well be withdrawn for conversion to CATOBAR, especially if the new-build carriers are not already so fitted.

Maybe it's just the North American preconception of what a carrier is at work here, but the PLAN has shown a lot of interest in steam cats for over 20 years, and I very seriously doubt that they will forego mastering that technology and putting it on carriers as soon as they reasonably can. I think that the PLAN will have a surprise waiting for us in the not-so-distant future (speculation of course, but let's just see how things really turn out).

[Obi Wan Russell]

Originally Posted by Norfolk

It seems likely that Varyag/Shi Lang will emerge as a STOBAR carrier as her flight deck is clearly more or less finished, but as Jeff says, her new-build successors may well turn out to be CATOBAR. I do rather suspect that at the very least Varyag will one day be (at the very least for testing and evaluation purposes) converted to CATOBAR someday. Once the new-build carriers follow Varyag into service over the next decade or so, I would rather expect that in short order Varyag may well be withdrawn for conversion to CATOBAR, especially if the new-build carriers are not already so fitted.

Maybe it's just the North American preconception of what a carrier is at work here, but the PLAN has shown a lot of interest in steam cats for over 20 years, and I very seriously doubt that they will forego mastering that technology and putting it on carriers as soon as they reasonably can. I think that the PLAN will have a surprise waiting for us in the not-so-distant future (speculation of course, but let's just see how things really turn out).

Agreed. Assuming Varyag/Shi Lang/your suggestion here enters service in her current configuration and the purchase/production of SU-33s goes ahead in full then STOBAR will be the PLANs only real option for the first few years of carrier operations. This will give them the required experience in flight deck operation before they move to the next stage, CATOBAR. I expext catapult experiments are proceeding even now though I would be surprised if they first went to sea aboard Varyag, more likely they will be fitted to the first of the new class of indigenously designed and built carriers, then once proven may be retrofitted to Varyag when she goes in for her first refit (room for two cats on the angled deck, the ski jump being integral to the bow would be very costly to remove). This is because the other half of the equation, the aircraft, namely the SU-33s are not currently designed for catapult launches. The first batch, say fifty or so airframes will most likely be similar to the Russian Navy examples, but if China starts licence production they may well take the opportunity to design a 'mk2' stressed for cat launches. The 'mark 1' aircraft will buy time for this step whilst providing the necessary experience of flying from a ship at sea. Any follow on ships will be larger IMHO by about 10,000tons in order to carry an adequately sized air group and to rectify any shortcomings of the original Kuznetzov design (expect a much larger hangar and flat foredeck to accomodate one or two catapults with another one or two on the angle) though there will most likely be a 'family resemblence'. design of warships tends to work better when it is evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

[su-27]

Originally Posted by Obi Wan Russell

Agreed. Assuming Varyag/Shi Lang/your suggestion here enters service in her current configuration and the purchase/production of SU-33s goes ahead in full then STOBAR will be the PLANs only real option for the first few years of carrier operations. This will give them the required experience in flight deck operation before they move to the next stage, CATOBAR. I expext catapult experiments are proceeding even now though I would be surprised if they first went to sea aboard Varyag, more likely they will be fitted to the first of the new class of indigenously designed and built carriers, then once proven may be retrofitted to Varyag when she goes in for her first refit (room for two cats on the angled deck, the ski jump being integral to the bow would be very costly to remove). This is because the other half of the equation, the aircraft, namely the SU-33s are not currently designed for catapult launches. The first batch, say fifty or so airframes will most likely be similar to the Russian Navy examples, but if China starts licence production they may well take the opportunity to design a 'mk2' stressed for cat launches. The 'mark 1' aircraft will buy time for this step whilst providing the necessary experience of flying from a ship at sea. Any follow on ships will be larger IMHO by about 10,000tons in order to carry an adequately sized air group and to rectify any shortcomings of the original Kuznetzov design (expect a much larger hangar and flat foredeck to accomodate one or two catapults with another one or two on the angle) though there will most likely be a 'family resemblence'. design of warships tends to work better when it is evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

Obi wan, do you think that first indigenous PLAN carriers will be a variable design as CVF: starting with sky-jump but designed to be modified with catapults?

[Obi Wan Russell]

Depends on how successful they are with their catapult experiments and adapting the designs of their shipboard fighters to cat launching. The SU-33 is not officially stressed for catapult launches, though the Soviets may have done this work from the start with a view to later upgrades. As the nose gear is not designed for the US style nose-tow launch method they may have hard points on the fuselage for spools as required for the older wire-bridle method. This would involve a less radical redesign of the basic Flanker so may have been the preferred choice for the Soviet designers as a first step towards CTOL carrier ops. Ideally they will want to transition from STOBAR ops to CATOBAR ops as soon as possible to maximise the capability of their naval aviation. CATOBAR means not only increased performance for the fighters (allowing larger fuel loads and increased ordnance to be carried) but also means fixed wing AEW and COD aircraft can be embarked, which means a vastly increased defensive (and offensive) perimeter for the CVSG, as compared to heliborne AEW which is the only option available to a STOBAR carrier at present. In any case it will make sense to design the new class with a flat fore deck which can if necessary be fitted with a ski jump (as in Hermes) and later refitted with a cattapult rather than the integral ski jump of the Kuznetzov design. Even the Soviets realised this, as pictures of the follow on Ulyanovsk design show this approach, ie a flat deck forward with a ski jump built as super structure so it could be replaced at a later date with cats. She also had two cats in the angle, and I believ the intention was that she would be the test ship for them and if successful they would have been retrofitted to the two Kuznetzovs which would have preceded her into service. This would have been necessary for commonality across the fleet, so that all three carriers (and any following vessels) had air groups of the same composition. I believe China will quite logically follow the path that the Soviets never got the chance to, albeit with their own unique twists and turns along the way. Time will tell...

[su-27]

possible that su-33 will be used only with sky-jump and in a second moment supported than replaced by a catobar fifth generation indigenous fighter?

[Obi Wan Russell]

Originally Posted by su-27

possible that su-33 will be used only with sky-jump and in a second moment supported than replaced by a catobar fifth generation indigenous fighter?

Yes this is very possible, indeed likely. The SU-33s will probably form the core of PLAN shipboard aviation, and from the ranks of aircrew will be drawn those who will pilot the follow on fighter/strike aircraft. Existing land based indigenous designs will most likely form the basis for these aircraft though the redesign process will be more involved and drawn out than simply sticking a hook to the aft fuselage. As these new aircraft enter service they will supplement the existing SU-33s and operate alongside them for a number of years, the Flankers operating in the fleet defence role (due to the limited payload afforded them by the ski jump launch) and the new type (CATOBAR) will take on the offensive strike role by virtue of increased range and payload.

[su-27]

About your vision, chinese carriers will have an evolution: 1st fase: using only sky jump for su-33. 2nd: hybrid configuration with sky-jump for su-33 and catapults on angled deck for new fighters and AEW planes. 3rd fase: su-33 phased out, sky-jumps replaced by catapults, probably Varyag phased out.
How much time do you think, needs this progress? I think that 20 years is the minimal for justify the acquisition of enough su-33 to fitting at least 2 big carriers

[Obi Wan Russell]

Yes twenty years at least for this scenario. I think Varyag will be around for at least thirty years though the last decade will probably be less active, and she will tuely be a training resource by then, though still kept in fighting trim if only for show. After spending all that time and money to get her into service they won't throw her away too quickly. Carriers can be put to many uses after their front line careers are over simply because they are big relatively roomy ships. HMS Centaur was used as an accomodation ship for six years after being paid off and HMS Triumph became a heavy repair ship to support frigates and destroyers based far from home for long periods. HMS Hermes spent her last couple of years in RN service as a static harbour training ship and was available as extra accomodation if required. So even when a carrier has reached the end of it's sea going service life there are many uses to which it can be put before the scrapman should think about dusting off his cutting torches. In the case of large carriers, it isn't the hull which wears out, it is the systems aboard which become obsolete and expensive to maintain and the replacement cost of these measured against the cost of building a new purpose built hull is often the deciding factor in determining a warships life. American CV/CVNs are scheduled to last fifty years but can expect a major SLEP refit at some point to make sure their radars, weapons, communications, propulsion, accomodations and ship services remain functional. The old HMS Ark Royal (R09) would still be in service today if she had recieved an American style SLEP refit, as her hull was sound but her engines and most other systems were wearing out, for example. Whether or not Varyag gets such an extension will depend upon how easy or difficult the Chinese find building new hulls and how much demand they are in. If in thirty years or so the PLAN only has two or three new CVs in service then they may feel justified in extending Varyag for a couple more decades just to maintain numbers until more ships can be built.

[bd popeye]

20 years to move beyond 2 CV's???...Humm>>.The post by Su-27 is very close to the amount of years it will take the PLAN to be a viable player in the operation of aircraft carriers...Personally I think the time span will be somewhat shorter. About 12-15 years.

When I first discovered this forum many here seemed to think that if the PLAN had a CV it would immediatley be on par with the rest of the world. Reallity is finally sinking in...Many posters here now realize that it will take yers for the PLAN to learn how to operate a CV.

[su-27]

An alternative process could resembles the Indian: 1st fase: vikramaditya, stobar carrier with a number of MIG-33. 2nd fase: first indigenous carrier, variable design, to MIG-29 and Harriers are added new naval Tejas. 3rd fase: 2 or more CATOBAR indigenous carriers with fifth generation fighters. Vikramaditya, MIG-33 and Harriers phased out.

A parallel chinese programm could be: 1st fase: Varyag with a number of SU-33 (Kusnetsov has 24, so I think about 30). 2nd fase: first indigenous carrier, variable design, new fifth generation CATOBAR fighters and indigenous AEW planes are added to SU-33 fleet, catapults on the angled decks of Varyag and of new Cv. 3rd fase: Varyag is still as in the 2nd fase, there are 2 indigenous fully CATOBAR CVs, Varyag and her SU-33s are in 2nd line and soon to be phased out and replaced by other new carriers.
A question about the time is: how much big will be chinese carriers? All the planned Indian carriers will be more little than Varyag but I think that Chinese ships will be bigger, possible that Chinese will build their carriers at the same time of indians?

[bd popeye]

A question about the time is: how much big will be chinese carriers? All the planned Indian carriers will be more little than Varyag but I think that Chinese ships will be bigger, possible that Chinese will build their carriers at the same time of indians?

The Varyag is a very large ship. Displacing about 60,000 tons of water. Once the PLAN shows proficency in operating the Varyag(Whenever that will be) I think they will develop a CV of around the size of the FN R91 Charles De Gaulle. 40,000 tons or so...

As to Indian my opinion the PLAN is far behind the Indians in CV development.The IN has been operating CV's for decades now and the PLAN has yet to send one to sea. They have to put an operational one to sea first before thinking about matching the numbers of CV's the IN has or will have.