PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos II

Originally Posted by NikeX

If they have conducted successful traps then show the pictures and the videos. In recent days we have seen MiG-29s land on other carriers in wonderful detail. I would expect the PLAN would show the same.




As others have pointed out the PLAN seems to be wanting to stay on the fast track with their "aggressive" schedule of carrier operations. The point is how aggressive are they?

You can be aggresive w/o being reckless. Carrier operations is already a very dangerous and risky preposition as it is even with the utmost of preparation and training. PLAN does have quite an aggressive schedule but they are not reckless. They have a set schedule and very methododical approach to it. Part of that is cultural as well.

The Chinese folks are very much into 'saving face'.. they will do ANYTHING to prevent being 'shamed' especially on a high profile project such as this which has not just military but political implications as well.
You can bet your last dime they will do everything humanly possible to make sure all their t's are crossed and i's dotted.

It's good for them but bad for laymen like us... they're taking it very slow and easy.. I mean heck! she sat there rusted out for almost 10 years before the PLAN turned her into what she was destined to be. Unless China intends to engage in some major naval and air engagement i'm unaware of sometime soon, a few months more of waiting and testing is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Originally Posted by kwaigonegin

You can be aggresive w/o being reckless. Carrier operations is already a very dangerous and risky preposition as it is even with the utmost of preparation and training. PLAN does have quite an aggressive schedule but they are not reckless. They have a set schedule and very methododical approach to it. Part of that is cultural as well.

The Chinese folks are very much into 'saving face'.. they will do ANYTHING to prevent being 'shamed' especially on a high profile project such as this which has not just military but political implications as well.
You can bet your last dime they will do everything humanly possible to make sure all their t's are crossed and i's dotted.

It's good for them but bad for laymen like us... they're taking it very slow and easy.. I mean heck! she sat there rusted out for almost 10 years before the PLAN turned her into what she was destined to be. Unless China intends to engage in some major naval and air engagement i'm unaware of sometime soon, a few months more of waiting and testing is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

As I have stated all along, still in the interest of accuracy we should not refer to this as an aggressive schedule, it is not, it is more of a deliberate or deliberative schedule. You have also well stated that there is NO imminent threat to China's sovereignty or security, in fact there is NONE!

Originally Posted by Bltizo

We've been over this before; the lack of pictures does not mean they haven't conducted it.

The PLA like to make the other side underestimate their hand for as long as practically possible unless there are benefits to showing the successful deployment or testing of a weapon. In this case, PLAN havemotive to keep any carrier milestones made quiet for the moment.

Comparing with the vikramditya is ridiculous: both Russia and India have freer media than china with far more open militaries – not to mention that a pride/nationalism factor is in play too.

That's nuts. Its either you land on the carrier or you don't. Why talk "aggressive development" and then shroud everything in mystery?

But to move on I will say that it is each to his own.

One day the PLAN will have to let the world see what progress they are making in carrier aviation due to the fact that carrier flight ops will have to be conducted on the high seas.

Originally Posted by kwaigonegin

You can be aggresive w/o being reckless. Carrier operations is already a very dangerous and risky preposition as it is even with the utmost of preparation and training. PLAN does have quite an aggressive schedule but they are not reckless. They have a set schedule and very methododical approach to it. Part of that is cultural as well.

The Chinese folks are very much into 'saving face'.. they will do ANYTHING to prevent being 'shamed' especially on a high profile project such as this which has not just military but political implications as well.
You can bet your last dime they will do everything humanly possible to make sure all their t's are crossed and i's dotted.

It's good for them but bad for laymen like us... they're taking it very slow and easy.. I mean heck! she sat there rusted out for almost 10 years before the PLAN turned her into what she was destined to be. Unless China intends to engage in some major naval and air engagement i'm unaware of sometime soon, a few months more of waiting and testing is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Well your explanation of cultural details does give some detail on why CV-16 is almost a "black" project. Thanks.

Originally Posted by NikeX

That's nuts. Its either you land on the carrier or you don't. Why talk "aggressive development" and then shroud everything in mystery?

But to move on I will say that it is each to his own.

Eurgh.

Yes it is either you land on the carrier or you don't. But they have the motive to leak the pictures or to wait.
They don't want people to know yet -- that isn't nuts, that's logical if not prudent or even smart. Hiding your own progress means any competitors will not have a concrete reason to develop their own countermeasures or capabilities. Not to mention successful traps making it known to the world could easily be blown up by media as more ammo for popular china threat stories.

The PLA are still years behind in capability compared to the US in many regards, so secrecy is one of the few reliable assets they have to use. Keeping their true cards hidden for a little while is smart.

So really NikeX, you need to understand "aggressive development" doesn't mean "trumpeting it to the world". They're doing it to improve their own capabilities, they are not particularly vain enough to tell the whole world of their progress, and they even have reason to not tell the world of progress so enemies will underestimate their true capability.

Aggressive development =/= Us getting pictures or news of aggressive development
I've already been through why they would not show us news or pictures over and over again.

One day the PLAN will have to let the world see what progress they are making in carrier aviation due to the fact that carrier flight ops will have to be conducted on the high seas.

But until that time they're going to keep things on the down low until they see it fit.

Originally Posted by NikeX

Well your explanation of cultural details does give some detail on why CV-16 is almost a "black" project. Thanks.

Saving face is definitely part of it, but more practically the reasons I listed above are of greater motive to hide development on sensitive projects.
Just look at how quiet developments in the entire PLA's spectrums -- new tanks, jets, transports, AEWC, destroyers and frigates, IFVs... News and pictures on their progress are all leaked incrementally, with rate depending on their sensitivity and potential strategic and thus political influence. And carrier development is certainly near the upper end of the list, so PLAN definitely have motive to keep progress hidden.

Originally Posted by Bltizo

Hiding your own progress means any competitors will not have a concrete reason to develop their own countermeasures or capabilities.

Well, I think that the PLAN is definitely trying to ensure that the rest of world does not know exactly where they are at...and for the reasons that you state.

But that does not mean competitors will hold back either. To be prudent, they will presume that the PLAN is making steady progress...and they will plan their counters accordingly.

Those who can will presume that the PLAN will soon have operational J-15s doing pratice and qualification operations off of the CV-16 and will proceed accordingly with their own operations in the area.

I personally believe it will be at least two years before the very best/aggressive estimates would make for a CV-16 capable of conducting rudimentary strike at sea operations off of their carrier if necessary and pressed. It may be more like four...but prudence will tell you, in the event it was necessary, to plan on a minimum of two.

Originally Posted by Jeff Head

Well, I think that the PLAN is definitely trying to ensure that the rest of world does not know exactly where they are at...and for the reasons that you state.

But that does not mean competitors will hold back either. To be prudent, they will presume that the PLAN is making steady progress...and they will plan their counters accordingly.

Those who can will presume that the PLAN will soon have operational J-15s doing pratice and qualification operations off of the CV-16 and will proceed accordingly with their own operations in the area.

I fully agree that potential competitors will definitely be making prudent plans to counter liaoning, but if pictures and news of various tests being successfully carried out are even leaked... well even in the last few years media has shown to blow chinese military developments out of proportion and create a decent sized media storm. These kind of fiascos will only increase the rate or urgency the competitors will develop countermeasures on top of what they were already planning.

And the PLAN would like to avoid such a situation if possible, which is why they are only releasing carrier related news and pictures very scantly.

I personally believe it will be at least two years before the very best/aggressive estimates would make for a CV-16 capable of conducting rudimentary strike at sea operations off of their carrier if necessary and pressed. It may be more like four...but prudence will tell you, in the event it was necessary, to plan on a minimum of two.

Yes, I would agree with that timeline.

Although given the fact that J-15s likely have made successful traps and take offs during the ships trials with a selection of pilots, I would say they could muster up a single pair or wing of J-15s to conduct a very rudimentary and "less than IOC" strike mission now if the situation heavily demanded it.
Of course this depends on how far they've gotten along with weapons separation testing, live firings and how far the plane's avionics have been tested, as well as how many pre production planes they've produced so far and how many semi experienced pilots they have at their disposal.

[going on a tangent below]

within two years I expect a regiment or maybe even two, of J-15s to have been produced.
The liaoning's sortie rate in the relatively short term will be an interaction of both air wing size, and crew (especially deck crew) competency. Having a smaller air wing will let the deck crew have an easier time but naturally less planes mean less sorties. But having more planes could stretch your relatively inexperienced deck crew, making them work slower to be more careful (which will also decrease sortie rate), or, if they work at usual speed, it increases the chances of an accident.

I believe it will take five years for the deck crew to be able to operate at a good sortie rate with the full airwing while keeping decent safety, another five years on that to become fully comfortable with making high tempo operations, and then ten years for the PLAN to operate liaoning within a carrier battle group with every single asset working in unison with full confidence.

So if the PLAN ever decides to deploy the liaoning for a real combat mission, say, within the next five years before the deck crew is "experienced," I expect they wouldn't embark all J-15s they have produced aboard the aircraft carrier as the deck crew probably will not be able to handle it anyway (or at the very least, they will only operate a number of J-15s while the rest are kept as spares below in the hangar).

Originally Posted by bd popeye

Edited post after seeing the rfueling..

Thanks for posting Bose! edit.. I saw the video. Great. now my question is why is that fuel hose so small in diameter?

Ahh me trained eye thinks those are power cables.. they seem to be much to thin to be fuel hoses. It would take forever to fuel up an aircraft with a hose that small in diameter. And.. Where's the fuel reel? in the deck? Not smart..if there's a leak or fire in that small space..disaster.. Of course the Russians do things their own way. And I could be wrong...I was!!

Maybe the hose are not too small as we see in the pictures and it could also be due to lack of close-up shots, though they could be smaller than the American ones. They are not power cables for sure. The fuel hose on Charles De Gaulle (if the yellow one I mention is not the power cable) also looks not as big as their American counterparts.

the reel is in the catwalk



Download HiRes

the reel is on the left. See how large it is?

The reels on the Russian carriers could be beneath the flight deck as you mentioned. But not underneath the main deck. These are likely to be on the sponson.

What are those 4 long rectangular boxes (with some yellow colored stuff inside it) that we can see on the deck edge. Two are aft of the island and two and two at front.

Here's a pic of an USN power cable..this young woman is dragging one to an Hornet.




Thanks again for posting Bose.

Edit.. turns out the Russians did have a fueling system. great!! That means the Chinese will have one also. .. So why do they have a fuel truck? Curious

Here is the power cables for the aircraft. I did not post it along earlier so as not to confuse the two.





In below pictures we can see the power cables running from the front and the fuel hose coming from the tail side.

Harrier on INS Viraat being refueled.

Originally Posted by NikeX

If they have conducted successful traps then show the pictures and the videos. In recent days we have seen MiG-29s land on other carriers in wonderful detail. I would expect the PLAN would show the same.

PLAN needs to do no such thing. As an example, J-20 had a successful first flight and to this day there has been no official picture or video.

Anyway, here is a picture of Liaoning showing the skid marks with very good clarity:

Tags: Chinese aircraft carrier; Liaoning; deck; skid marks;

Is this video of a J-15 landing on the Liaoning real or hoax?

J-15 Landing on CV-16?

Originally Posted by Blackstone

Is this video of a J-15 landing on the Liaoning real or hoax?

J-15 Landing on CV-16?

That's a very obvious CGI.

Originally Posted by jackliu

That's a very obvious CGI.

Exactly.. one thing that is a give away is that the escorts ships are too close to the carrier during recovery. If there's an accident those escorts may run over the crashed aircraft.

I expect that among the many things that Liaoning was exercising early on was handling helicopters, landing and taking off, for which a reserve of fuel was carried in that road tanker. Actvating the aircraft fuel system was delayed. When was the first time the tanker was carried?
Then came approach and overflight by J-15, touch and go by same, the first traps and take offs, for which, if fueling was necessary, the tanker served. For comparison: when was that photograph taken of the tanker hoisted onto Vik? And how intensive was MiG-29 flying then?
When J-15 flying became more intensive the ship's aircraft fueling system was activated and the tanker remained on shore. When was the first time the tanker was left behind?
Today's situation on the US East Coast reminds me that bad weather is likely in the current operating area of Liaoning in the coming months. The ship will want to continue training in benign circumstances and so is likely to move South, if the weather is better there. That will give others a look at the flying activities and that might well be thought by PLAN the right time for that to happen. Of course by going South she doesn't want to meet a typhoon.