SinoDefence Forum

planeman

a) Right now, how many MBTs, trucks, troops, air-defence vehicles etc could the PLAN dump on a Taiwanese beach in a single go?

b) And how will that change in the coming few years as new systems (LPDs, large air-cushion vehicles, enhanced amphibious vehicles etc) enter service?

Just curious.

Jeff Head

Well. when you add commercial vessels that would be sure to be used, it is hard to tell. However, if considering just PLAN vessels, you can get a good start at overall capability at this site - HERE.

Clearly, with something over 300 amphibious vessels in total, the PLAN could land a substantial number of troops and their equipment, including armor, in an amphibious operation.

But, in an opposed crossing, one has to all consider the likely attrition due to OPFOR and other conditions as well, but I am presuming you mean if the PLAAF somehow gained total air superiority and if the straits were clear of opposing force submarines and other naval vessels.

planeman

TYPE 072-III (YUTING-II CLASS) LARGE LANDING SHIP
7+ in service, 10 MBTs = 70 MBTs


TYPE 072-II (YUTING CLASS) LARGE LANDING SHIP
11 in service, 10 MBTs = 110 MBTs


TYPE 072 (YUKAN CLASS) LARGE LANDING SHIP
7 in service, 5 MBTs = 35 MTS


TYPE 074 (YUHAI CLASS) MEDIUM LANDING SHIP
?? in service, 2 MBTs = ?? MBTs

TYPE 073-III (YUDENG CLASS) MEDIUM LANDING SHIP
11 in service, 6 MBTs = 66 MBTs

TYPE 079 (YULIAN CLASS) MEDIUM LANDING SHIP
32 in service, 5 MBTs = 714 MBTs

CATAMARAN LANDING CRAFT
3+ in service, 2(?) MBTs = 6 MBTs

Chengdu J-10

When you MBT do you mean the Type 99 and 96 or the light tank Type 63 shown in the picture? Cause the Type 99 is heavier than the Type 96, and the Type 96 is heavier than the Type 63

Jeff Head

There are also ten Type 079 IIs in service, and over 200 Type 271s and 067s.

And that's not to mention the new Type 71 LPDs that are being built.


For an overall pictorial and basic specification comparison between PLAN and USN amphibious capabilities, just CLICK HERE.

Gollevainen

One correction: 5 x 32 = 160, not 714

The overall figure is around ~500 tanks theoretically to be moved in one sortie. That isen't even two divisions...but before you even get your eyes fixed on that number, here's few things that you need to take under consideration.

The number was just the tanks, it didn't include the mens and more importantly all the other elements of tank divisions. DOes anyone have any clue just how much equipment a single motorized or armoured division requires? A single towed artillery battery (company size unit) requires around 10-12 trucks, not to mention of the entire divisional artillery regiment. Add the guns and the artillery units of the tank/infantry regiments. And thats just the artillery...airdefence, engineers and other supporting units of the divisions requires at least the same ammount of vehicles so in overall the tanks and ACPs are barely the half of the total required vehicles and units of the divison.

And we still haven't counted the mens...these chinese amphibious ships are basicly the old WWII type LSTs which have quite limited capability to transport large units. If you wish to beach units that actually have some value in the combatfield, those numbers that were listed will drop considerably.

So even in theoretically (in real life, not in some battlefield 2.0 computer game) the current amphibious capability of PLAN is only capaple of transporting barely one motorized division size unit in one sortie. Is it sufficient enough? Depends what you are trying to invade. Spratly ilands mayby, but for example Taiwan? Well just think about it yourself, can one division take and hold a bridge-end with reinforcements coming in the size of one division and in the rate of what ever it takes to get those ships back to the mainland, load up and head back to the sea (and decreasing as the landing force will take damages) against an army sized opponent??

The current and past chinese amphibious capability is not even near the level which would be required if you wish to conduct operations of the size and scale as Taiwan invasion would require. Even the new LPDs that are about to enter service (and to operational service) in the following decades wont be enough, you need at least the size of USMC, and even it may proove to be insufficient...

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Jeff Head

I personally believe that the PLAN could move two divisions across the strait at a time if they used all of their newer (Type 72s, Type 79s, etc.) and a couple of the new Type 71 LPDs, particularly if commercial shipping is heavily used to augment it.

But this presumes that they are able to do this without serious loss to air or naval forces opposing the crossing.

Two divisions is not going to be enough at this point, IMHO, to be able to hold and maintain a beachhead while other units are brought across, so the PLAN will also have to depend on at least two divisions of airborn troops supplementing them, which would only add to the necessity of their elimintating any OPFOR beforehand.

This is something the PLAN and PLA are not able to do currently (quickly gain and maintain complete air ans sea control while crossing)...but I believe they are building towards that end.

Gollevainen

One or two divisions or even three...It really doesen't make the difference. The general rule is that when you are attacking against organised army, you need to have considerable numerical advantage. What that ratio is, it depends on many factor and is very hard to determine.

But when attacking completely landblocked country, the ratio needs to be extremely high and add to it you need to have completele air and sea dominance just for getting your troops over the water. Thats why in modern days there haven't been a single case when a reasonable army would have been defeated when defending an Island.

Chinese amphibious capability is at this point large enough to conduct operational landings (in soviet terms). That means it's able to open a new theatre of operations, and perhaps even a new front to support existing groundtroops advancing on along the coastline. After introducting the new LPDs, chinese capability will come close to that of the soviet union just before it's breakdown (tough many improvements must be done before that). Soviets considered themselves beeing able to do this same level of operational landings, but Strategical landings were toughted to be able to done only by the US...

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Jeff Head

If they coud quickly land and support four divisions and in the process of doing that take and hold a port where they could quickly expand their beachhead, they may have a chance. But again, to do that, they would need complete air and sea dominance...and I do not see that happening in the near future at all. Taiwan's own resources are too strong for complete dominance and so there would be significant attrition in the crossing, and they therefore would not be able to accomplish the initial objective of securing a beachhead that would allow them to bring the follow on echelons...and then you factor in the US response and it all goes down the crapper pretty quick IMHO.

If the somehow could forestall any US response and then just fight a war of attrition against the ROC until they had complete sea and air dominance...then things might be different. But I do not see that happening in the near future.

adeptitus

The ROC Army has approx. 200,000 active (+3.87 million maximum potential reserve) service, plus 3,000 assorted armored combat vehiciles, 1,500 artillery, and 200+ helicopters, including AH-1W Cobra's.

Even if the PLA makes it way through ROCN and ROCAF to land 1-2 divisions on Taiwan's western shores, they're going to get zerged by the ROC Army.

I honestly can't see the PLA using a lot of commercial ships. Because to get them you have to recall the ships to port, assume control, then load your men and equipment. Doing so with commercial ships is near impossible to conceal, and will give Taiwan plenty of early warning to active its reserves.

However I do think the PLA has the capability to invade Kinmen & Matsu, and may actually do so to "send a message".

Totoro

It doesn't have to be a given to have more attackers than defenders to succeed. Last several decades of warfare have proved it.
Also, for amphibous landings, one doesn't need huge numberical advantage. allies landed 'just' 120 000 soldiers during first 24 hours of d-day.

Numbers game is not most important anyway. Strategy, including deceptions, could change things a lot. One thing that has to be forgotten is the notion of concealed landing. while one could conceal the exact place and time of landing, the fact there is one in preparation is impossible to hide. I doubt chinese would even try to hide it.

Scratch

Well that D-Day comparison is not all that correct, allies had air-superiority over the channel and the immidiate landing region as well as sea controll in the channel. And the allies are said to have had greater numbers of soldiers anyway, since the beach they attacked wasn't the one the germans anticipated. Additionaly the german army was streched in fighting all over the european continent.

BTW, perhaps not related to conventional amphibious landing, but what are PLANs capabilities to bring SpecialForces to shore by subs ... ?

Totoro

I used D day comparison precisely because of importance of air superiority. Without it, landing would be impossible. Same goes for sea superiority. Of course, once you have air superiority, you must use it. If chinese cant pin down better part of taiwanese armored formations - chinese marines would get pushed back into the water very quickly.

That being said, germans had 50 000 troops right on the beaches (combined) while allies, like i said, debarked 120 000 troops in first 24 hours. What figure i can't find is just how many were debarked in the first go. I would assume that 120 000 figure was achieved by multiple (at least one more go) trips of at least part of the amphibious fleet.

So, IF one has air and sea superioiry and is in position to make good use of it - one doesn't have to have more troops than defender to do a successful landing.

Gollevainen

To make succesfull landing you don't need quantitical superiority, yeas. But the key issue is to hold that position. With the current transport capability, china cannot bring no more than few divisions in the shores of Taiwan. In the normandian landings, Germans didn't have (like said) enough troops there, but also they didn't know where exactly the strike was supposed to hit. THe are which the germans had to defend was huge compared to the area of Taiwan. So the germans weren't able to bring reinforcements in the needed time and couldn't focus it's defence in smaller areas.

Now in Taiwans case there really isen't many choises where the chinese landing force will hit. And even if the exact location isen't know, the ammount of defensive troops is much higher in those areas. Short distances means that Taiwanese can move additional units to the hotspots fast and concerate it's defence even greater.

PRC just doesen't have the capability to transport enough troops agross the strait fast enough so that the balance of power can be shifted on their favour. The overall capability of PLA, PLAN and PLAAF conduct the level of operations which would be required to bring down the Taiwanese defence just isen't sufficient enough. Tough there is procress in the overall modernisation of PRC troops, the main bulk of the troops are still desperetly inadequate to modern battlefield. It's ability to fight against modern army isen't the question, I'm sure it can do so, BUT in the Taiwan invasion the task is no smaller than the total anhilation of ROCs armed forces and without devastating nuclear strike, PRC just cannot do it...

Numerical superioty may not be in threory the neccerical to win a amphibious assault- type of strugle, but in this particular case it's a must. No matter how nice new toys PLA might have, the overall level of the equipment isen't anyway superior to Taiwanese and in most cases it's in fact inferior.

There is just noway that PRC could invade Taiwan at the moemnt and in near future as long as Taiwanese are fighting back

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Sczepan

and don't forgot: Taiwan indeed can determine the "declaring of independence", which would be the step in the war. So Taiwan have the cards to start the game, and Taiwan indeed would set the optimum moment in taiwanese meaning.

And as Gollevainen sad:My five cents: in case of "declaring independence" they would mine all choises where the chinese landing force could hit.
I agree: