SinoDefence Forum

kroko

Actually, AFAIK, they have only made superficial work on the Varyag.

Jeff Head

It's a carrier, they are doing significant work on it...it's part of a carrier construction/refit curve.

It is definitely their curve and I will agree with that. And they are going about it in their own way and time with their own priotities. I also believe, that given the work they have done on it to date, that it will ultimately be operational.

Many people think training, but if it can train air wings, and in ops then it can be operational as well. Just to what extent?

We shall see...time will tell...but as time goes on, I maintain that the PLAN is falling further and further behind other nations in the carrier curve. This is self evident. The other nations are building them, putting them to sea, and learning to use them and gaining more and more experience. To date, the PLAN is not.

One day (maybe soon) we will know what their plans are in more detail.

Anyhow, I know the Chinese people in general and particularly the naval enthusiasts on this board will be thrilled when that happens. regardless of the fact that it will be many years after the launch and initial shakedown cruise of such a vessel before proficiency is gained...I expect the roar of joy and national pride that will come from China the day it is launched will be heard around the naval world.

tphuang

they've spent years studying the structure before they figured out what they needed to modify and now they are going to put it in the dry dock for months to refit. We won't even be able to see the majority of changes they are putting in. Do you think the only work they've done is modifying the island?

HKSDU

it does take time to examine the carrier layout, then structural integrity, then seeing how it all fits in. Refiting requires structural examination then alteration or even replacement, re piping, re-wiring, electronic installation, engine connection, weapons installation, ammunition storage facility, further wiring, etc.... so its seems about that they shouldve finished the refiting via 2011. Thats my guess, but the number 2011 doesnt mean in service 2011. And to top it all off the most heaviest vessel the built and put in service is about 1/3-1/4 of the Varyag, and signifcantly less complex.

danielchin

Was my memory correct that China had just concluded the debate over "should they build a CV" not long ago?
Maybe Varyag had never been seriously re-fitted until the decision finally reached (after all, what a training ship for if no CV would come).

GermanChinese

In another thread in SDF i was looking at :"How do you sink a carrier", there is a speculation of using ASBM to sink a carrier, especially a US-carrier in case of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

So, is there a possibility that PLAN is refitting Varyag enough to act similiar like a US-carrier and using it for shooting practise?

The idea seems preposterous using such an expensive piece of hardware as shooting range but if their intentions succeed, then it is not totally wise to delay building expensive carriers that could be targeted ?

Wolverine

The nations that already have carriers have had them for decades, so China is already decades behind the learning curve. But that's not the building curve you were talking about earlier. What navies learn from operating carriers inevitably tapers significantly as time passes, like a curve which is skewed to the right. At this point whatever PLAN learns every year from operating a carrier will be boatloads more than what the US learns every year from operating a carrier.

No way. They could strip down a retiring oil tanker and use it for target practice and it would be a hell of alot cheaper than refitting the Varyag to use for that purpose.

maozedong

I just feel that the oppinion is strange, that say Varyag refit only for training ship. sure when Varyag will take time to form a combat capability, but it's not noly " training ship " forever, all war ship, all weapons, in peace time, they are just training, when the war coming, they will fight.
Ukrainian will not really massive explosion destroyed Varyag,this way, they have no benefits, that will be risks to sink the ship, then they will gain nothing.
about Varyag is too old that not good for a CV, we can look the pictures before they cut the island separated, the Varyag was looks nice.
I think Varyag delay to be done, Probably because of some technical difficulties are not resolved,but now Varyag construction is on going.

Jeff Head

I disagree on this. First, not all of those countries have had carriers for decades. South Korea certainly has not. Japan has not...most of the people involved in their carrier development from before and during WWII are all dead now. So, not all countries developing them have had them for decades in the least. US, UK, France...yes.

As to construction...I stand by that statement and the relative nature of it. The countries constructing them...particularly the newer countries...are getting further ahead of the curve simply by virtue of the fact that they are doing it whereas the PLAN at this point is not. That is self evident.

And, to your point that what the US learns every year is less than what the PLAN will learn at this stage of the game is only true when looking through the lens a certain way. The US is learning things now that it could only learn after decades of use and training...so, although in terms of a relative percentage starting from zero what you say is true, in terms of the time it will take the PLAN to get there so it can even begin to learn and apply the newer operational considerations, technologiues, etc...and make them effective, it is not true.

Sort of depends on how you are looking at the glass I guess.

Anyhow, in the end, the issue will resolve itself. At some point it will become completely evident what the PLAn intends with the Varyag as well as with new indigenous designs.

Sczepan

hmmm - I am not sure, but did they have a secound bridge now

Attached Images

	varyag-20009-09-29-6.jpg (35.1 KB, 69 views)
	Varyag Island Sep4.jpg (35.5 KB, 71 views)
	Varjag-20090907_cut.jpg (111.4 KB, 87 views)

kroko

No. the varyag doesnt have a second bridge now. its only the exposed inner struture of the island. If you compare the photos of the island a month ago with those now, you wont notice any difference.

EdT586

China's first carrier will be an ingeniousness design and built. They will never use the Varyag and it will never be operational. They will turn into a museum piece like the USS Intrepid to mock the Russians more than ever ...LoL

China's ship building is now 2nd or 3rd after Korea in terms of tonnage per year. They can build a carrier in less than a year if they wanted to, but with the showcasing of the DF-21 on the National Day parade further mocks the use of having carriers !

tphuang

The DF-21C in national parade is not the so called "carrier-killer", it's just a new variant of the DF-21 missile. They certainly can't build a carrier in less than a year. Varyag is already turning into operational.

bd popeye

First off..There is no proof other than internet rumors and fanboy speculation that these ASBM work or have ever been tested..

In the sink a carrier thread I posted this;

It would be impossible for a nation that has never built a carrier to build one in a year or less. If you really think it can be done please give us a scenario how this could be done.

As an example it took the US about 15 months to crank out an Essex class CV during WWII with the shipyards building 24/7/365.

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Wolverine

Japan and SK has carriers? You must be referring to Japan's helicopter "destroyer" and SK's LPH. Sorry, those sub-20Kt ships are not even nearly the same thing as a CATOBAR carrier or even a ski-jump carrier like the Kuznetsov, Varyag, Invincible, and Queen Elizabeth. In fact, CTOL, STOVL, VTOL and helicopter operations are all quite different from each other (obviously). I'm sure there are some basic common elements (aircraft handling, movement, storage, munitions management, etc.), but those are almost certainly the first things learned by any new carrier operator like the PLAN.

Not only that, I do believe PLAN has already negotiated with the Brazilian navy to send personnel for training on the Sao Paulo, presumably for precisely these basic principles, since Brazil operates only Harriers and China will probably be operating only CTOL aircraft. IMO the fact that the PLAN believes it has something to learn about carrier ops from a young carrier navy like Brazil says something about the learning curve of carrier ops. And this is actual hands-on education, not book-based or simulated.

If you're referring to newer countries like SK and Japan, they didn't and aren't constructing real carriers. Actually the PLAN is also rumored to be about to start construction of its own helicopter carrier, aka the "081". Like I said, small helo carriers like Dokdo and Hyuga don't really show up on my radar of real aircraft carriers that operate fixed wing aircraft, because they are not only much smaller but also employ very different aircraft (i.e. helo) operations. Japan and SK aren't getting ANY experience building or operating conventional CTOL, STOVL or VTOL carriers. In fact the only countries that have been getting construction experience have been the US, France, UK, Russia, Italy, and Spain, the same ones who have been building and operating carriers for decades. India's was built by UK, Thailand's by Spain, and Brazil's, by France. That accounts for every last aircraft carrier currently in service.

Like what, for example?

In terms of carrier ops, the only reason I say that the USN may have anything new to learn at all is simply me hedging my statements. Outside of new technology like EMALS and new planes like the F-35, IMO what the USN "learns" these days is nothing more than incrementally small gains in the mastery of what it already knows, not any new knowledge that has not been gained after 70+ years of carrier ops. I'm talking about small things like "let's put that weapons elevator here instead of there" or "let's move that maintenance shop to the other side of the hangar", etc. That's the kind of stuff the USN is learning these days. Now look at it from the PLAN's perspective. It has to learn how to land aircraft, move aircraft around on the flight deck, get them in and out and up and down on the elevators, how to get weapons on and off the planes, how to fuel, how to launch, which deck crew to put at what places at what times, etc. If the PLAN doesn't learn all of these and right away, people are going to die in large numbers. That's the difference between the learning curve of the PLAN and that of the USN.