SinoDefence Forum

bd popeye

That's your most lucid post ever! And so 100% correct. I agree that at first the Varyag will be a training CV ..then once the first batch of crew and aviators is trained it will be operational and used to train newbie pilots as the PLAN stands up possibly more CV's...

Bottom line it will be a waste to save the Varyag for training only. A waste.

The USN uses what ever CVN is avaliable for training it's new aviators. As for the enlisted crew. It's technical training schools and OJT!!!(on the job training)

I'm sure the PLAN has their own way of training but would do well to follow the USN example.

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Sczepan

but there is a contractial aggreement to ucraiina, that the Varjag dont become military use - so in the ligth of this contract, she only could become trainee-ship of (dalian) naval academy, not in operationale use (whatever happened in case of a real hot conflict to those contracts is another point....)

most of the time I agrre with you, and in future yrs I'll absolutly agree, but not today => there are not enough CVs to do OJT by chinese carriers. The PLAN have to lern every thing step by step, there ar no experienced teachers in the staff.
In my opinion the Varjag at first is used for training sailors, formation CBG ops, deck management, and a first group of (trainee) pilots (by training aircrafts - I'll prefer the L-15 as you know) - I wouldn_t be surprised, if brazil and russian instructors support the PLAN in this time of "first steps".

And in this time the PLAN will start to build 2 small (minimize the risk) amphibious carriers (including cats) which will be manned by the first trained crews.

After that time the PLAN have 3 carriers, the "trainee-carrier" Varjag and the 2 amphibious carriers which can be used for OJT and amphibious operations.
In this time the Varjag could start the first SU-33 trainings.

Now the PLAN have 2 options:
1) furthermore using the Varjag for training only, manned by a kernel of instructors, and send the trained crews to new build carriers (thats what the contract will allow, as I think) - in this way the PLAN could man a new carrier approximate every year, by training arround the clock (shift work) and changing the crew in periodical rotations *)

2) give the Varjag operational and use all carriers for OJT

In my opinion, the chinese dont breach the contract. As stipulated in these contract they will use the Varjag for training only, not in operational service (whatever happened in case of a real war to those contracts is another point, as I sad before....).

Now lets talk about the training of PLAN carrier pilots in this premise:

1) L-15 training aircraft, basic jet flight training, used by airports and Varjag

after that there is a possibility: separation of pilots or do the next steps behinde the other

2a) L-15 training aircraft and
L-15 lightweight attack role by both amphibious carriers including cats
2b) SU-33 training on the Varjag

the next step will be:

3) SU-33 (or derivate) by new build operational chinese super carriers including cats

These chinese super carriers will be build, when the PLAN have enough experience in carrier ops by using the Varjag and the 2 amphibious carriers.

After that time - when there are more Carriers in service - the PLAN could switch to the US-style of training, but in my opinion in this time the Vajag will be to old to become operational in real military service.

*) edit:
a question to ral sailors:
if a kernel of instructors is on board, and you work in different (rotating) shifts - did you think there is a possibility, that the kernel of instructors (permanent boarded) could be supportet to teach and controll the young guys (beginners) by selected mebers of the older teached crews ?

For example:
1. 3 months (first quarter): Beginners and last quarters in common shifts ("look and see"), controlled by permanent instructors
2. 3 months (secound quarter): OJT by day (instructet and controlled by permanent instructors)
3. 3 months (third quarter): OJT by day and night (controlled and instructet by permanent instructors)
4. 3 months (last quarter): OJT by day and night including instruction of first quarter (controlled by permanent instructors)

the result: in this training method the PLAN could have a new trainend crew every 3 months - if a quarter is not enough, you could lenght the period and a least the PLAN could win a new trained crew every year ..

Jeff Head

1st, that contract was with a front company that has, according to my understanding, since gone out of business. Therefore, no more contract.

2nd, that contract was for no military use. Training military pilots and military operations is military use.

3rd, in either case, it is clear that the Chinese military, specifically the PLAN, has not desire and no intentions to honor a contract that was made with a third part company that no longer has possession of the Varyag, and from what I can ascertain, does not even exist at this poit.

4th, IMHO, it was all a ruse from the beginning and I expect that the Ukraine has no intention on challenging the contract in the World Court...which would have little or no enforcement power in the first place even if they did. No nation, at this point, would sanction or try to punish the PRC over this issue now.

Now, as to the carrier itself becoming operational, if it can train pilots to take off, if it can train the crew in operational, logistical, and procedural matters so the PLAN can develop its doctrine, then once that doctrine is developed, it can also be used to execute that doctrine at the behest of the PLAN high command. In order to train pilots in take off from that ski-jump, the Varyag will have to develop sufficient headway to provide lift for those aircraft. So if you conceed that aircraft will take off from her in training, at the same time you are conceeding that the PLAN must have installed engines powerful enough to generate that headway...which means she will be capable of regular operations as well at some point.

As popey has said, who has 20 years experience in carrier operations, 20 years that should be not only recognized but respected, the carrier will treain the PLAN...and after that, it will be used for PLAN operations. I would listen to what he has to say regarding these types of issues.

I also believe that the Varyag will become operational and it will provide the PLAN with their initial learning and testing and operations. I expect it will be followed by two even more capable carriers.

If the PLAN is going to put cats on a flight deck that goes to sea, my guess is they will not do it on smaller, less capable vessels. I expect to see two Chinese, full-deck carriers being launched and commissioned by the 2020 time frame.

But, as with all things, time will tell and make plain what the facts are in its own time...all of our opinions and thoughts on the matter aside.

bd popeye

Thanks Jeff for those kind comments! And I agree with what you have said.

Sczepan in my opinion it would be a waste of resources for the PLAN to devote one CV strictly for training. After the first crew is trained they can train it's replacements. Training is a constant. It need never stop. And if conducted correctly it will not intfere with normal operations. I'm just using the USN example.

One downfall I see in counducting CV training is the way the PLAN trains its conscripts. If you read this USN intelligence report

http://www.militarytimes.com/static/...3dnplanavy.pdf

as posted by our fearless leader, Golly,you will see that the PLAN basically shuts down once a year from Nov 'til Feb to train conscripts and replace NCO's and to discharge those personell that have finished their term of service. The PLAN needs to fully revamp this thinking if they do intend to be a viable blue water navy in the future.

Just my opinion!

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Sczepan

studiing is not working
a training company ist not the PLAN
training of pilots and crews is not operational military use

agree - she need powerful engines, she could be capable for regluar operations, but she will not be used for that (I think the PLAN would win more by using this ship as training vessel - as I sad before)

crawl - walk- run
the PLAN need full operational amphibious carriers

so after type 071 (which is estimated to be 17,000t displacement) the PLAN should first build 2 (most of the new types have 2 ships - TYPE 052 (LUHU CLASS) with Nr. 112 + 113; TYPE 051C (LUZHOU CLASS) with Nr. 115 + 116; TYPE 052 B (LUYANG CLASS) with Nr. 168 +169; TYPE 052C (LUYANG-II CLASS) with Nr. 170 + 171) small amphibious (helo) carriers with a displacement of > 20,000 (up to 30,000) ts, comparable to TARAWA LHA-class;
launched between 2010 and 2015 in Dalian (they studied the Melbourne and the Varjag to), but with angled deck and including 1 or 2 cats (derivate of Melbourne-cat) to launch leight wight ground attack fighters (L-15 instead of Harriers), carrie also WZ-10 attack helicopter instead of 4 AH-1W SuperCobra and transport helos;

to quote bd popeye at Aircraft Carriers the PLAN will develop more capable cats by winning experience

I agree also by the 2020 time frame - as next step after the amphibious carriers

I agree

big stuff to read - see me back within a week

bd popeye

It is big. But great info..Just pick a chapter and start reading..I've read most of the items dealing with training and quality of life.

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maozedong

"China national defense science and industry committee Director Zhang Yunchuan on 16th morning attends when the National People's Congress closing ceremony disclosed that, China makes own the aircraft carrier, the preparatory work is carrying on, at present progresses smoothly. This is China official acknowledged for the first time has makes the aircraft carrier the plan. The people's net reported that, he indicated, "we are carry on the technological transformations with the old aircraft carrier, but is oneself constructs. The preparatory work is a long process, has the very many technical difficulty to need to overcome, but ' if central government makes the resolution, the technical department has the confidence advancement, can do utmost carries on the development '."

above articles are reported by offical internet - The people's net. from these articles are clearly mention that China is being built thier own CV is Varyag, execpt the hull, every thing constructed by China it's self, in other words, China is building the CV and will own the CV expect within 4 years should be Varyag.
when Varyag arrived to China almost only the hull of the ship,inside the parts are old and lots of parts already removed out by Ukraine,China have to construct the ship again like build a new CV, we can say, after Varyag done, it is a new ship, and from the latest Varyag pic, we can see that the hull of Varyag is so nice, they rebuilt the hull almost like new.
my oppinion is China wouldn't disign new style ship hull for chinese first carrier,one of reason is that china has no experience on that, any new design maybe not reliable and will take long times to test sea trial.another reason China can use Varyag for research carrier technologies,after that, China started to built Varyag as a new ship, all old parts inside will replace new parts and maybe more advance than the before.
if China can solve the difficulty of ski-jump carrier aircraft, Varyag is a good CV for China and it will service in PLAN for longtimes

panzerkom

All good points, IF she can keep up with a task force.

My question remains: where is the powerplant?

Correct me if I am wrong, but the propulsion system on a carrier is not the same as that found on a petroleum tanker, since the powerplant on any warship will have to withstand constant and vigorous cycles of acceleration and deceleration. The fact is, to date, Chinese ship-builders do NOT have any experience in building surface combatants with a displacement over 10,000 tonnes.

So far, I haven't heard anything about the Chinese looking for something that can power a 50,000-ton warship. If the Varyag is really being put into service prior with the propulsion systems the Chinese currently have, she'd perform more like an oil tanker in terms of speed and maneuverability.

Now, would you wanna build a task force around a ship with a cruise speed of 12 knots and a flank speed of 16~17 knots?

Jeff Head

Well, the just put out the new LPD with a full load displacement of 20,800 tons. There's a start and we shall see how she does.

In addition, for some time they have had large naval replenishment ships, their two newest being fast replenishment ships weighing in at over 20,000 ton full load displacement. One of the older class ships was over 30,000 tons displacement.

So, it is not entirely accurate to say that the PLAN has no experience over 10,000 tons...but not a lot.

Still, even then, these vessels are not a carrier of the size and displacement as the Varyag. My guess is that they will either have a new propulsion system, or have worked with Russia and the Ukraine for help on one. Either way, if they launch the Varyag, you can bet it will be able to make enough headway to launch its aircraft properly...and that means they will be making far more than 12-16 knots IMHO, otherwise, it would be senseless to launch her.

mehdi

I know this post will cause a lot of controversy but has China the capacity to make the Varyag nuclear powered ?

Jeff Head

Well, the question is not really one of raw capability...but one of feasibility.

On the second question, the more important one of feasibility, the answer is a simple no. It would cost far too much, take far too long, would require far too much restructuring and rebuilding of the ship itself, and it is likely that the PLAN does not have a naval reactor sufficient to the task avaialble at this point to make it feasible.

On the first question, is the capability even remotely possible...well, with enough time and money and willingness to go through all I said above...yes, they could do it, but it would take far too long and cost far too much. So, I can promise you with relative assurity, that with the Varyag, the PLAN never will.

optionsss

I totally agree. If you can't do it right, then it's probably better not to do it at all. The French had their problems with their nuclear powered carriers. Safety is one thing, that ship was actually slower than the conventional boat.
It all depends on what position Varyag will play for the PLAN, if it's just a training ship, why don't just get you hands dirty and fit every new tech possible. There has to be a first time for everything.

panzerkom

Hey, Jeff. I am aware of the replenishment ships. That's why I said "surface combatants" in my original post. But to your credit, one can argue that an LPD is a surface combatant. But then again, an LPD doesn't need to sail as fast as a carrier or turn as quickly to sail into the wind. Anyways, you got my point.




Okay, here's my line of reasoning, lemme know whether it makes sense to you.

Well, we all know she's being painted and her deck preped. So either she's gonna be a really realistic theme park or she's gonna to be launched soon -- in the 2008 ~ 2010 time frame as a lot of people suggested.

Now, let's go with the latter guess. Since we haven't heard anything about the acquisition of a propulsion system from Russia or Ukraine that can meet the requirements, it leaves us with an indigenous propulsion system. But as I mentioned before, China doesn't have any experience with powerplants for a surface combatant anywhere near her size. So I drew my estimates on her performance based on data on a similar sized oil tankers with an indigenous propulsion system Dalian built before.

At 17 kts, she probably can't launch a loaded Flanker with full internal tanks from the #1 and #2 positions. But how about a clean Flanker with half internal fuel? Wouldn't make sense in combat, but it sure is sufficient for pilots to get some valuable practice on carrier take-off and landing and deck crews on handling aircraft in a very crammed space.

And that is why I concluded that she would become just a training ship.

Sczepan

and

also a training-ship need the full speed to launch fighter-jets;
but for the propulsion-system:
please read The Chinese aircraft carrier programme (esp. post Nr. 66 and follows) - you may see, that also conevtional powerplant, like diesels - which are in use by chinese (Dalian) yards - could give her a speed of 30 knts .....

panzerkom

Whoa, thanks for the info, you are really a pro. I knew they were license-producing MAN engines, but not the exact models, now I know. I should probably probably go through that 200-some-odd page manual first.

As for the taking off run, I'm pretty sure if you reduce drag by flying clean and lighten the load by both flying clean and reducing internal fuel, you can do it even if the ship is stationary. After all, the point of sailing into the wind at flank speed is to create more relative velocity -- and thus -- lift for the aircraft, right?