SinoDefence Forum

lilzz

Let say Tawain decides to declare indepedence, and it will prompt China to declare war on Tawain. US will come to aid of Taiwan and sending it's seventh fleet to Taiwan Strait.

On China side everything is loaded and ready to go.
But stop here for moment, let's think about it. Whatever China has accumulated and advanced in its military, it's a big mistake if enter direct fighting /w the US. It will ruin alot what the country has built for the past several decades. It will ruin it's foreign relations internationally and tradewise. The ordinary chinese people would suffer the most if a direct fight between US and China.

China should not ever fire the first shot at the US forces. But it will a different story if US decides to use its stealth fighters and tomokawks missiles against mainland targets in preemptive strike. Then This will become a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY.

Let's say US forces have not fire the first shot just sitting it's carriers and groups near the north of taiwan strait. So China and US are staring at each other but no shots are fired.

But the question how long will the US battle group sit there? They are going sit at the ocean for one year or two year.? What if china declare War at Taiwan yet don't implement any massive evasion? SO what now? IS it practical for US forces just being idle at the ocean.

meanwhile China would send its submarine to harasss taiwanese merchant ships and tankers.. sink some of them or lay some mines along its course
I believe constant harassment against taiwan will bring its economy to its knee in prolong enough. yet without direct confrontation /w US.

US side also don't want a full confronation /w China. Why risk so much just to protect Taiwan. US is pretty a Anglo-white controlled country ,why they bother to risk so much of their resources and lives to save some asians in taiwan. No way. For what? preservation of democracy? yeah right, democratic values in US put aside after 9-11. self-preservation come first. Again why the anglos in US want to risk their countries and lives to save some foreign asians is beyond me. besides the democratic party is back.


Again China should not sacrifice its progress and developement by involve in full confrontation /w US. But they should have enough military to harass taiwan's economy to the brink of collapse. I think that should be the best strategy in case tawain delcare independence and china has to force to act.

jwangyue

What you've said, are precisely some of the reasons why China is not really interested in Military action against Taiwan. War is a costly busienss. Why bother with war when after maybe 10 or 20 years of continuous development, you can become a powerhouse and making it in Taiwan's interest to come back and unite?

lilzz

If Taiwan declare indepedence China has to act. Some certain forms of military conflict is unavoidable between China and Taiwan.

But the distinction is don't get involved directly /w US.

It's like if you want to beat up a small guy but the small guy bring out his brother brother to confront you. It's better for you not to advance. But the thing is his big brother can't watch or protect him 24 hrs a day and 7 days a week and 360 some odd days a yr. Just pick on the small guy when his big brother is no around. And when his brother come back, then retreat. On and off, on and off, soon or later. the big brother is tired and ditch the whole thing.

It's very much like the vietnam wars, the vietcongs can't match up /w the US troops and they can beatup the southern groups. Vietcongs attacked them when US troops not around. after a number yrs, US just got tired of the whole thing.

I also like to add those expensive weapons China acquired through recently, save them and don't use them against US otherwise US could destroy them. Those new weapons china have is use for bullying small countries or lesser countries in case there are conflicts arise.

bd popeye

Due the fact that there is already existing thread concerning about Taiwan navy, this thread is closed. Please post your toughts and insight in here:Taiwanese navy under-rated

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